Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, sees the stock market completing its current rally with a small gain that would move the Standard and Poor's 500 to about 6,200. But once the holiday euphoria passes, she sees the market being hit, taking the S&P 500 down to roughly 4800. She also worries about how gold and oil prices will play out as the second Trump administration follows through on some of its campaign promises. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com, discusses the site's latest survey on Americans' Social Security needs, noting that more than half of the nation's not-yet-retired workers expect to rely on the program to pay for "necessary expenses," but nearly three-quarters of Americans are concerned they won't get their promised benefits once they hit retirement age. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's questions about hiring a financial adviser to help manage an inheritance.

The National Association for Business Economics released its November Outlook Survey today, and nearly all of the economists surveyed expect moderating growth and slowing inflation but, most importantly, no recession until at least 2026. Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide and the outlook survey chairperson for NABE, called the results "Goldilock-ish," noting that forecasting firmer growth and slower inflation than they did in September, the economists are effectively expecting a near-perfect landing for the economy, with downside expectations decreased. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, revisits Beyond Meat, noting that a number of different Danger Zone picks have recently had big rebounds, but that the plant-based meat maker hasn't gotten that kind of life support from the market, which is why he expects it to complete its destiny as a "zombie stock" in 2025. Plus, Nael Fakhry, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Growth and Income fund, discusses "quality growth companies" in the Market Call.

After waiting over three years for "one of the worst recessions ever anticipated that never happened," Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the economy is now moving forward without much recession worry, buoyed by consumer spending — especially from Baby Boomers — and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that he considered mostly unnecessary. Yardeni sees the economy going through another "Roaring 20s" period, and while the one a century ago ended in the Great Depression, he does think that outcome is not inevitable provided the government can keep debt and deficit levels under control while riding out the benefits of the "Digital Revolution" that includes all of the excitement around artificial intelligence and technology. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors says the market's technicals are showing all green lights for a continuing bull market, and investors should lean in and treat downturns as buying opportunities. Dilley makes a case for the Standard & Poor's 500 to reach 7,500, getting as high as 6,400 by year's end, with only "normal pullbacks" on the road to that higher level. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments — manager of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals — on why gold has worked better as a geo-political hedge than as a buffer against inflation.

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that 'the soft landing was earlier this year,' and now the Federal Reserve is trying to "prevent a recession in an otherwise fairly healthy but unevenly distributed economy." Bory notes that central bankers typically cut interest rates to stimulate a slowing economy, but that's not the case currently in the United States, where he says the Fed is trying to bring rates down more in line with inflation, and that has changed the shape of the yield curve, dropping short-term rates but making it that long-term rates — including mortgage rates — aren't likely to fall by much even with additional rate cuts. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi picks a market-index fund with an options overlay — an ETF that's delivering yields of roughly 9 percent — as his "ETF of the Week." Thomas Cole, co-founder of Distillate Capital — a firm that makes "stability" a prime factor in its investment methodology — brings his numbers-oriented value-investing approach to the Money Life Market Call.