Rough Consensus is a set of conversations between Checkmate, and the brilliant analysts who specialise in markets, macro, and Bitcoin. newsletter.checkonchain.c...
G’day Folks,Today I jumped on the phone with Murad Mahmudov, who has been around the Bitcoin and onchain world for a very long time. Back in 2018, Murad was the guest on a podcast with Pomp titled the Ultimate Bitcoin Argument, which was one of the key orange pill moments for me personally. I highly encourage everyone who hasn’t heard this discussion, to add it to your listening list.Murad was also the original co-creator of the MVRV Ratio, alongside David Puell, two of the original onchain thinkers, from whom I have learned a great deal.In this podcast, we start with Bitcoin and its role as a monetary asset. We also venture into the weird and wacky world of meme coins. Now, I know a majority of the Checkonchain audience are Bitcoiners at heart, however I encourage you to think beyond the silliness of the tokens, and think about how Murad frames up modern market structure.Whilst I personally am not an altcoin, nor memecoin investor, I still find the intellectual exercise of thinking through why crypto markets value certain idea more than others fascinating. In my opinion, the crypto world has rebuilt, bug-for-bug, many of the systems which underpin Wall Street and global finance. They offer us a lens into how the incentives behind the fiat system led to it becoming what it is today, just on an accelerated timeline.Think beyond the tokens, and try and consider how the emergence of memecoins represents a social, and cultural shift, and a direct reaction to the VC funded techno-babel nonsense which is all too prevalent in the crypto world.I found this conversation really helped solidify many of the ideas and reason why the broader crypto market trades the way it does, and paints a unique picture for how capital rotation may or may not evolve this round.I’d love to hear your thoughts in this one, so let me know in the comments if any light-bulbs go off during this conversation (and what you agree/disagree with).Thanks for listening!JamesOther ways to listen:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published on Substack)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published on Substack)Youtube:Disclaimer: This podcast is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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53:54
The Bitcoin Big Leagues with Alex Thorn (RC#6)
G’day Folks,I had the great pleasure of meeting Alex Thorn in Nashville, where we were joined by Dylan LeClaire to discuss whether the 4yr Bitcoin cycle is likely to persist. This is a question I get all the time, and one which I am still processing my own thoughts around.After listening to a tremendous monologue by Alex on the Galaxy Brains podcast (recommended add to the rotation), I had to pick his brains on how market structure and cycles are likely to evolve in the years ahead.In this conversation, we go down numerous rabbit holes, including:Our broad overview of the Bitcoin and crypto landscape.Headwinds and opportunities facing the industry.Analysis of the major BTC sell-side entities over the last 6 months.The impact of ETFs, futures and options.Whether the 4yr cycle is likely to persist, or has it already broken?Key catalysts to watch out for now and in the future.This was a cracking conversation, and I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. If so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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1:01:32
Crypto Market Structure with Permabull Niño (RC#5)
G’day Folks,Permabull Nino is one of my oldest friends in the Bitcoin industry. The two of us cut our teeth together studying and developing onchain tools and metrics over many years. PB has an accounting background, and currently works as an analyst and trader for SpaceWhale Capital. He has a wealth of experience working with derivatives, and assessing how capital rotates through the crypto markets.PB is actually a co-founder of the original iteration of the Rough Consensus podcast, which was one of our ‘stay sane during COVID’ projects. We both worked as contractors for the Decred project at the time (R.I.P.), which was where a lot of the original work was done exploring how behavioural patterns show up in onchain data. In today’s conversation, we branch out beyond Bitcoin to explore:How derivatives influence spot markets (and vice versa)Dynamics of capital rotation through crypto markets.How we think about analysing Bitcoin vs altcoins.Theorising about the trajectory of ETH vs its competition.Why we continue to come back to Bitcoin as the ultimate answer.We cover a lot of ground in this podcast, and I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. If so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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1:08:22
Trading Insights from my Market Mentor, Doc (RC#4)
G’day Folks, today I have something really special for you, and that is I am bringing in the biggest of guns to explore what on earth is going on right now in the Bitcoin market.The latest episode of Rough Consensus is with my market mentor Doc Severson. Doc is a trader with two decades of experience, and is by far the most influential person in my market analysis career.Doc and I discuss the current market conditions, and how it compares to prior cycles. We also break out the charts for some live analysis of what we expect over the coming weeks/months.You will find Doc’s market analysis and courses at readysetcrypto.one.I really hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did, and if so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
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1:07:02
Rough Consensus Podcast with Joe Carlasare (Ep #3)
G’day Folks,Today, I had a fantastic conversation with Joe Carlasare, who carries tremendous insight into how the regulatory, legal, and macro dynamics affect global markets, and Bitcoin. We cover so much ground in this conversation, ranging from the big risk overheads in the legal world, to the core drivers of markets today, Turtle Theories, and whether 'cycles' still matter.We dive into a wide range of topics including:* How the regulatory and legal landscape has changed since FTX.* The role of higher rates, harder money, and fiscal dominance.* Turtle theories and Chopsolidation.* The psychology of HODLer sell-side pressure.* How spot and futures markets are intertwined.* Asking the question, ‘what is a store of value’?I really hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did, and if so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. Be sure to give Joe a follow!Disclaimer: This podcast is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe
Rough Consensus is a set of conversations between Checkmate, and the brilliant analysts who specialise in markets, macro, and Bitcoin. newsletter.checkonchain.com
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