Gone are the days of coherent international coordination. Rather than working together to solve pressing crises, many of the world’s most powerful states are ac...
Ep101. Munich Security Conference 2025 – What does it mean for European Security?
In Munich last weekend, J.D. Vance shocked Europe with his speech castigating Europeans as having the ‘wrong values’ and not being ‘democratic’. Meanwhile, Trump and co. are doing the very democratic thing by being in Saudi Arabia and negotiating with Putin over Ukraine behind Zelenskyy’s back – possibly presaging ‘a deal’ that will be struck excluding Ukrainian input at all.
As this episode drops, European leaders are finally trying to get out in front of events by meeting in Paris in an emergency summit, to counter with their own ‘peace proposal’ that would actually be beneficial for Ukraine’s future. Disorderly much?
In this episode of Disorder, Jane Kinninmont tries to navigate these complexities in conversation with Jason Pack, as she brings us her personal reportage from last weekend’s Munich Security Conference. During her visit there, we hear three on-the-spot interviews (Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak; Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister; and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies) - discussing the shifting dynamics of US-European relations, the implications of Trump 2.0 on the Ukraine conflict, and the urgent need for Europe to reassess its defense priorities in light of potential US unpredictability. Plus: in an attempt to Order the Disorder, what can be done to foster unity among European nations?
Producer: George McDonagh
Executive Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine’s Peril’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril
Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis
And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK’s Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right
For more on Jane’s interviewees and their outputs:
Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak - https://x.com/leshchenkos?lang=en
Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister: his bio here - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/todor-tagarev/
And see his recent ECFR piece “prepare for the worst - four scenarios for Ukraine under Trump 2.0” -https://ecfr.eu/article/prepare-for-the-worst-four-scenarious-for-ukraine-under-trump-2-0/
Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies, headquartered in South Africa with offices in Senegal, Kenya and Ethiopia - https://issafrica.org/author/ottilia-anna-maunganidze
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Ep100. Britain's Military: A Tool for Global Ordering?
With a major war raging in Europe, a seemingly more expansionist Trump in the Whitehouse, and China’s long held desire to invade Taiwan, is Britain prepared militarily?
It’s hard to tell. The current Labour government is still refusing to set out in detail its plans for Defence, including when it might increase spending to 2.5% of GDP. Instead, we are left waiting for the publication of a new Strategic Defence Review. So are Starmer and co missing an opportunity to be mega Orderers?
To understand these issues and more, for our first episode in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), we’re joined by Matthew Savill. He’s the Director of Military Sciences at the London-based defence and security think tank. His team focusses on understanding trends in modern warfare and its impact on military strategy, capabilities and planning. Before joining RUSI he spent over 20 years in national security roles in government, starting as an intelligence analyst, and later moving on to policy and operations, working in both the Ministry of Defence and the UK Cabinet Office, and on deployments in Iraq, the Middle East and Afghanistan.
Jason and Matthew discuss on the UK's role in defense and security, the challenges faced by the UK in military procurement and capabilities, and the need for the UK to maintain its status as a major global player. They compare the approaches in France and the UK, and whether we’re in a potential pre-war era, and whether Britain needs to maintain independent military capacities.
As they Order the Disorder, they look at whether AI could be the way Britain becomes Mega Orderers, and Matthew leaves with a message for Starmer: invest in people.
Producer: George McDonagh
Executive Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
More on our partnership with RUSI - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast
Read Matthew’s analysis, Starmer’s New National Security Adviser: A Consequential Choice
- https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/starmers-new-national-security-adviser-consequential-choice
Read Matthew’s piece, A Hollow Force? Choices for the UK Armed Forces - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/hollow-force-choices-uk-armed-forces
Read The Disintegrated Review? Britain and the Ukraine Crisis by Matthew https://wavellroom.com/2022/03/14/the-disintegrated-review/
Our episode on AI with Marc Warner - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/3f615a6ab068a88f5dcd8d444dbbb60f
Our episode with Jonathan Powell - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/94c9f3ec23902d3f606bffb43dc39928
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Ep.99 The New Age of Political Influence
We’re entering a new age of political influence, where money generates attention, and attention generates influence. In this meta-verse, old fashion regulations about lobbying and advertising are no longer suffiecnet and people like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg rule the roost. So, what can be done?
To find out, Jane Kinninmont is joined by returning guest Peter Geoghegan, an Irish writer, journalist, and director of Democracy for Sale. The duo discuss: the pervasive influence of money in UK politics, how money buys attention and then indirectly influence, and this constellations implications for democracy. Peter tells Jane about the rise of super donors in UK politics and how social media algorithms spread Disorder.
To finish, they look at how to Order the Disorder. Peter pushes for transparency in governance, and tells Kier Starmer to put a spending cap on individual’s political donations.
Producer: George McDonagh
Executive Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
Hear our Previous episode with Peter - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a50fd0d6c8ad45567cac6b47cf060d4e
Peter’s website - https://www.petergeoghegan.com/
Peter’s substack - https://democracyforsale.substack.com/
RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security specialises in the intersection of finance and global security. Their research includes work exploring the nature of the threat from global illicit flows, the harm they cause and how best to respond - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/research-groups/centre-for-finance-and-security
Listen to Ezra Klein talking about the attention cycle - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/democrats-are-losing-the-war-for-attention-badly/id1548604447?i=1000684362481
Read Anne Applebaum’s piece on Musk and political interference in Europe https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/03/musk-tech-oligarch-european-election-influence/681453/
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Ep.98 Disorder Emergency cast – Tariffs, Impoundment, Gaza, AID Freeze, and plane crash
Disorder is a podcast where we hate being right. Totally hate it. Jason truly loves being wrong. But fudge and fiddlesticks. Seems he is right again. The thing with neo-populists is that they don’t so much have policy agendas and goals, they just seek to disorder the universe by say – proposing to fire in a haphazard way 2 million U.S. government employees, or forcing out top FBI officials, or appointing officials for Senate confirmation to head government agencies that have overtly said they want to dismantle those specific agencies, or by randomly proposing to deport Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan against their will.
On today’s Emergency Cast, Jane and Jason spontaneously convene to deal with peak disorder and delve into all the interlocking crises, dead catting, plane crashing, impounding, tariff barrier erecting, and AID stopping that has come to a head during Trump’s Second Week of his Second Term.
In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jane wonders how much of the world will respond by trying to figure out how to decouple - slowly, gradually, cautiously – from the U.S. because U.S. politics does not exactly seem at its most stable. And Jason muses that Canada, Mexico, the UK and the EU could have chosen to present a united front to Trump, but appear to have elected not to.
Producer: George McDonagh
Executive Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
This is a most compelling podcast from the 538 about the ways in which the Trump Presidency threatens the constitutional balance of powers and how the issue of Impoundment is at the very core of the structural and legal threat of Trumpism to 're-do' the underlying structures of America: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000687276109
From the Washington Post, ‘Senior U.S. official exists after rift with Musk Allies of Payment System’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/01/31/elon-musk-treasury-department-payment-systems/
From CNN, ‘Inside 45 hours of chaos: The brief life and quick death of Trump’s federal spending freeze’: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/29/politics/inside-brief-life-trump-federal-spending-freeze/index.html
From CNN, ‘Trump suggests his plan for Gaza Strip is to ‘clean out the whole thing”’: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/25/politics/trump-gaza-strip-jordan-egypt/index.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawIJDhZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfyYNmWDBz3iKiscGQHjvHQx_ZfwOPriV_8VGZmlxTh1JhZ-_NiNKbntsw_aem_rjBE8gcyRVXKVXMhTc-mAQ
From Congressional Democrats, ‘Background on Unlawful Impoundment in President Trump’s Executive Orders’ https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/fact-sheets/background-unlawful-impoundment-president-trumps-executive-orders
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Ep97. Does Diplomatic Secrecy actually Work? And What’s Next for Centre-Left Politics?
In this episode, Jason and Alex tackle some probing listener questions. They return to a theme from previous episodes (especially the previous episode with Marcel Dirsus): whether today’s autocratic regimes (China, Russia, Iran) are actually as strong as they appear or might be weaker than we imagine. In response to multiple listen questions on this theme, Alex and Jason debate the cultural and economic missteps of the center-left and the importance of addressing real voter concerns about the pace of social and culture change in the face of rising populism.
Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble.
Producer: George McDonagh
Executive Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast
Alex’s article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky
Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f
Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e
Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934
Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
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Gone are the days of coherent international coordination. Rather than working together to solve pressing crises, many of the world’s most powerful states are actively making those crises worse. The result? We’re living through a novel historical era: The Global Enduring Disorder.
The Disorder podcast teases out the key principles that connect seemingly disparate challenges: from Climate Change to Tax Havens, to Unregulated Cyberspace, to the Wars in Ukraine, Syria, and Libya. Jason Pack, NATO Foundation Senior Analyst, and Alexandra Hall Hall, a former British Ambassador, discuss with world-leading experts, senior diplomats and cultural icons, the fundamental principles lurking behind today’s global issues.
At the conclusion of each episode, they will be proposing inventive, win-win solutions to the globe’s most pressing challenges aka, ‘Ordering the Disorder’.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com
New Zealand