Disorder

Are we witnessing rising Islamic militancy in Bangladesh? Or could it become a model for other developing countries? A nationwide celebration is underway. It’s Victory Day for Bangladesh’s 176 million people. Fifty-four years ago today -- December 16th, 1971 -- the former state of East Pakistan became the modern, independent nation of Bangladesh.   But few people are pleased with the trajectory Bangladesh is currently on. What’s been happening this past 15 months has shaken this country to its core. On August 5th, 2024 protests over government job quotas escalated into a wider anti-government movement, with a resulting violent crackdown leading to the ousting of the long-time ruler, Sheikh Hasina. She now faces the death penalty if she returns. Her whole political party, the Awami League, has been banned too.   Now the Muslim-majority state faces perhaps the most significant fork-in-the-road moment since its independence. The February 2026 election. Can the caretaker leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus pull it off? Will it be free and fair?  It is possible that stability and democracy will be restored. It is also possible that an Islamist takeover and the cancellation of Democracy will ensue. To find out how the election could not only reshape contemporary Bangladesh’s political foundations but also South Asian stability, security cooperation and geopolitical rivalries, Disorder co-host Mark Lobel is joined by three experts on the ground in the country. 1- Debapriya Bhattacharya-- Economist, public policy analyst and Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Dhaka, Aasha Mehreen Amin -- joint editor at The Daily Star, and Iftekharuz Zaman -- Executive Director of Transparency International Bangladesh. Although we don’t hear about it much in the Western press, investors and policymakers the world over certainly have their eyes peeled on South Asia’s second largest economy and what it decides to do next. We hope you the Orderers enjoy this exclusive journalistic content.  If you like more deepdives like this and appreciate the effort we are putting in please: PLEASE join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ [Join the pay for substack for the 8 Jan event] Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch  Aasha's 'No Strings Attached' column: https://www.thedailystar.net/author/aasha-mehreen-amin  National Survey of Bangladesh: https://www.iri.org/resources/national-survey-of-bangladesh-september-october-2025/  Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh: https://bdplatform4sdgs.net/  Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ Join us at our live event in RUSI on January 8th https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-what-disorder-will-2026-bring.html (You need to join RUSI or the Mega Orderers Club or Paid for Substack to attend) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Will the US and Iran always be at odds? What is the history of their feud? Weren’t the countries allies under the Shah? And today, what’s the chance that negotiations will resume after the 12 Day War earlier this year? And why has the Iran file always been one of the most toxic and divisive issues in Washington foreign policy circles? To find out the answers to these questions and more, Jane - who has analysed and tracked the Iran file for two decades - quizzes an expert, author and friend, Dalia Dassa Kaye, whose new book ‘Enduring Hostility’ explores the history of U.S. policy towards Iran based on interviews with the most important DC insiders from rcent U.S. administrations. Not many people realise it, but virtually every U.S. administration since Carter has tried diplomacy with Iran. They’ve also always tried various forms of pressure - especially sanctions - and at times threats of military attack. Why, then, do the U.S. and Iran keep circling around the negotiating table despite seeing each other as archenemies? What happened to the JCPOA and will there be another nuclear deal? Or are we more likely to see another round of war between Iran and Israel? Jane and Dalia explain it all here just before they both head to Qatar for a bunch of serious discussions about mediation efforts. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder  Dalia Dassa Kaye - Enduring Hostility - https://www.sup.org/books/politics/enduring-hostility  Dalia’s op-ed in the Economist - https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/11/28/dont-count-on-a-reset-in-us-iran-relations-writes-dalia-dassa-kaye  And now to close out, an oldie but a goodie - Jane’s analysis for Chatham House when the JCPOA was signed, looking at the deal’s vulnerabilities and arguing a parallel diplomatic track was needed to address the regional tensions between Iran and its neighbours - https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/field/field_document/20150703IranGCCKinninmont.pdf  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the long-awaited UK budget finally revealed (in a leaked form a few hours early), will this finally restore a semblance of financial Order to the UK? And with Trump’s haphazard tariffs ongoing and constantly mutating, what does it all mean for the global economic order? To find out, Jason is joined by Philip Coggan, award winning journalist and author of The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means For the World. This ep is brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network. Philip and Jason explore how major historical lessons in economics (concerning specialization, efficiency, growth, the advantages of trade deficits, etc.) can all be unpacked from the ongoing economic consequences of Trump's tariffs.  They draw upon the historical parallels of Trump's actions to try to understand the true motivations behind Trump’s tarriffs.  Is it all about misunderstanding the meaning of trade deficits, or all about manufacturing, or is it all about centralisation of power and political theatre. Listen to find out… Plus: the duo spoke right after the UK budget announcement and they tried to unpack the domestic implications of the recent UK budget and whether any of Reeve’s economic policies can actually Order the Disorder. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder  Get Philip’s book The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump - https://profilebooks.com/work/the-economic-consequences-of-mr-trump/  Cockup instead of Conspiracy: How Rachel Reeves’s budget was leaked 40 minutes early: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/nov/26/how-rachel-reeves-budget-was-leaked-40-minutes-early  Budget 2025: Key points at a glance-- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4w44w42j5o  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What aboot Canada? Is Carney still popular? Has he pulled a Starmer of coming in with big fanfare and then flopping? Fortunately not! And with Mark Carney recently narrowly passing a budget, can Canada now play the role of the world’s mega orderers? And with the Canada-U.S. relationship on the rocks and trade talks stalled, what does that mean for Canada’s position in the world? To find out, Jason is joined by our returning champion, Marci Surkes. She is Chief Strategy Officer and Managing Director of Compass Rose and was formerly executive director of policy and cabinet affairs in Justin Trudeau’s  Prime Minister’s Office from 2019-2022. Jason and Marci discuss Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership style, the recent surge in Canadian defense spending, and the ongoing trade war with the United States. Plus: the challenges Canada faces in diversifying its economy, and the implications of its historical reliance on the U.S.. And as they Order the Disorder, they focus on Canada's future role in global politics and the importance of unity within the country. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ For more on Marci and her work visit https://www.compassrosegroup.org/en/marci-surkes  Listen to our previous episode with Marci: https://open.spotify.com/episode/50T7tW7IXc0wmgHBgH8HUK  For more on Canada listen to Front Burner https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/front-burner/id1439621628  Watch The Ontario anti-tariff ad which led Trump to end trade talks with Canada https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWQRuRIxMBI  Read about Trump’s new tariffs on Canada https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2ljgrm78zo  Read Canada narrowly approves Carney's first federal budget https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8531xvy26o Watch The Panel: What Trump means for Canada https://substack.com/@paulwells/p-151283084  Read 'Expect to see lots of borrowing of technique, borrowing of language,’ from U.S. progressives from Marci https://www.compassrosegroup.org/en/updates/2024/8/26/expect-to-see-lots-of-borrowing-of-technique-borrowing-of-language-from-us-progressives  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this bonus episode, Jane and Jason are joined by former Israeli Ambassador to South Africa, Ilan Baruch, to present a unique perspective on a possible route to peace between Israel and Palestine. Amb. Baruch is a part of the ‘Policy Working Group’, which advocates for ‘leveling the playing field’ between Israelis and Palestinians.  We discuss the need for ‘equality’ among parties in negotiations, the role of the UK and international community in peace efforts, and what recognition of Palestinian statehood actually means for peace. Plus: changes in Israeli and Diasporic Jewish public opinion regarding a two-state solution, and as they Order the Disorder, Amb. Baruch puts forward a vision for a peaceful future in the Middle East and the role of international powers in achieving it. Jason pushes back on this vision of an Israel-Palestinian condominium as overly optimistic, but hopefully it makes for a great listen. To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/  Producer: George McDonagh Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow Show Notes Links: Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ NGO MONITOR—SHRINKING SPACE:   http://policyworkinggroup.org.il/  Listen to World Report https://open.spotify.com/show/5qaYz2SRxlPUszXZQWNl1U?utm_source=chatgpt.com  For more on Ilan Baruch’s work: https://www.pascalboniface.com/2024/09/11/interview-two-israeli-diplomats-denounce-netanyahus-gaza-policy/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices