Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

The stalemate in the Middle East continues with neither the US or Iran backing down. US President Donald Trump continues to do the bidding of Russia by withdrawing some troops from Germany.

On the local scene, Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson addressed the National Press Club and outlined a vision noticeably different from the government's - particularly regarding the US alliance. He stated the obvious that under Trump the US is no longer the reliable, predictable ally it once was.

He remains enthusiastic about the purchase of nuclear-powered submarines but is less certain about their delivery schedule. He said that AUKUS Pillar One needs to be examined in detail and if it looks like the schedule is slipping, Australia should consider alternatives such as the purchase of B-21 long range bombers.

We conclude with some wise words from former foreign minister Gareth Evans and DFAT head Peter Varghese. Both believe Australia could be doing a lot more to strengthen our security without being totally dependent on the US.
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We start with the US and another attempted assassination of President Donald Trump. While there might not be a causal link, his obvious pleasure in inflicting pain and suffering on others - identical to that of the appropriately named Secretary of War Pete Hegseth - has helped increase a propensity for violence.

The US seems to be moving further away from what we regard as Australian values. Then we have the abrupt sacking of Navy Secretary John Phelan - unqualified for the job in the first place - which is part of a continuing purge of the US military.

In Australia we have the news that the government is buying an additional 270 Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles and also we are spending $2.3 billion on Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) and a second regiment of HIMAR launchers. PrSM is an excellent weapon - but we are doubling down on an overloaded and unreliable US supply chain at precisely the wrong time. A better choice would have been PrSM plus the Strikemaster system using Bushmasters with Naval Strike Missiles on them.

Also some words about a report by the UK House of Lords clearly and factually pointing out that the "Special Relationship" with the US is over - and will never return. When will our government accept this new reality and stop fooling themselves and the Australian people?
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Last week saw the release of both the National Defence Strategy and the associated Integrated Investment Plan. Rather than squabbling over the amount - there is a genuine, if small, increase in funding - people should be asking how much additional capability will this buy. The answer is, probably not enough, though more on drones is undoubtedly a good thing.

Speaking at the National Press Club, Defence Minister Richard Marles proved again how out of touch he is by claiming that the US is still a dependable ally and that the international rules based order is still in place when clearly it is not. People can see this daily with their own eyes.

He also repeated the falsehood that the government is spending record amounts on Defence. This is untrue. We are currently at 2.08% of GDP. In 1981-82 the fraction of GDP was 2.4% rising to 2.6% three years later. During the Vietnam War it was over 3%.

Can people please start holding Ministers to account for this absolute, provable, factually incorrect nonsense.
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Events in the Middle East continue to evolve in rapid and unexpected directions. Following the failure of peace talks in Pakistan between the US and Iran, the US is now hoping to open the Strait of Hormuz by blockading it.

In the short term, the fuel crisis in Australia may get worse before it gets better - not that you would know that by looking at the amount of jet fuel being burnt up by our PM and Defence Minister.

Speaking of which, a new National Defence Strategy will be released this week. It is likely to be dead on arrival because it has been written by people who refuse to accept that the world is changing and that the US is no longer a reliable ally.

Finally - what does this government have against South Korea, which is the largest supplier of petroleum to us, along with Singapore? Why are they being ignored in the current flurry of high level diplomatic activity?
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Enough of Donald Trump already! We can't avoid him completely but there's a lot more to talk about, including the visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius - and what a breath of fresh air he is. He has called the US attacks on Iran a mistake and is worried about declining US support for Ukraine. He speaks honestly and clearly - unlike our own politicians.
Next was a seminar organised by Malcolm Turnbull on sovereign self reliance - and the general conclusion was that AUKUS is on shaky ground. Next - our question for the week: what hasn't happened? Contract signature for SEA 3000 which the government insisted would be signed by the end of March.
Finally, 2 very positive local industry stories - a visit to BAE Systems at Osborn to look at Hunter class frigates and discussions with Penske Automotive about support for military diesel engines, where we have achieved self-sufficiency.

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