State of Play

The war with Iran has roiled the economies of the Middle East, shattered trust between Iran and Arab Gulf states, challenged security arrangements, and highlighted the region's geopolitical importance. But looking ahead, how much has the war really changed the region's future, and what is likely to remain more constant? Vali Nasr, Michael Ratney, Mona Yacoubian, and Susan Ziadeh joined Will to discuss how the war has reshaped the Middle East.

Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr, "Can Saudi Arabia Keep Hedging?" Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026.

Mona Yacoubian, "Why “Mowing the Grass” Won’t Work in Iran," CSIS, April 17, 2026.

Prime minister Victor Orban lost the Hungarian elections after 16 years in power. Péter Magyar’s landslide victory gave him a broad mandate for change and the ability to do so. Donatienne Ruy joins Will to discuss what changes he will make, what it means for Hungary’s relationship with the EU, and if this will be a game changer for Europe.

Donatienne Ruy, “What Happens After Hungary’s Election? Four Scenarios to Watch,” CSIS, April 3, 2026.

Donatienne Ruy and Maria Snegovaya, “What Is at Stake in Hungary’s Election?” CSIS, March 11, 2026.

President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay.

Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

Bonny Lin, "Why a Venezuela-Style Operation Would Backfire for Beijing," CSIS, January 9, 2026.

Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects.

Emily Harding, "Data Is Now the Front Line of Warfare," CSIS, March 19, 2026

David Michel, "Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies?" CSIS, March 19, 2026.

Mona Yacoubian, "Iran’s War Strategy: Don’t Calibrate—Escalate," CSIS, March 16, 2026.

Emma Curtis, Joely Virzi, and Caitlin Welsh, "Chokepoint: How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security," CSIS, March 11, 2026.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies.

Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" CSIS, March 20, 2026.

"Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens U.S.-Japan Alliance for the Benefit of All Americans," The White House, March 19, 2026.