Gone By Lunchtime

Messages suggesting the prime minister sought to support the US-Israel attacks on Iran landed with more than one explosion. Not only did it undermine Luxon’s position on the war and its impact, it delivered the deepest fissure yet in the coalition, with the PM saying his foreign minister had put politics ahead of the national interest. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire peer into that chasm to assess the severity of the wound and work out just what Winston Peters is playing at as the election draws closer.

Plus: Is a new, rebooted, freshly assertive National Party strategy becoming clear? How wrong were we about Luxon’s pledges to secure a free trade deal with India? And a new, grumpy-parent style ultimatum has been issued to local councils: sort out your amalgamation or we’ll do it for you.
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On Friday morning a bombshell report revealed a group of unnamed National MPs questioning Christopher Luxon's leadership, with the chief whip, Stuart Smith, said to have been "ghosted" by the PM. One hundred hours later, Luxon called their bluff and put a motion of confidence in himself. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire step through that extraordinary period, taking on a string of questions. Including: Who are the moany five MPs and what do they actually want? How bad was the Sunday night poll for him and his party? How did the prime minister manage in response? What was Stuart Smith up to and where did he disappear to? Did Luxon show tactical nous by calling the vote? How about that broadside against the media? Do Labour want him in or out? Does this draw a line under the speculation? And if you aren't yet shattered by this endless procession of question marks, is it possible to have a political soap opera without the matinee idol and grandmaster of the great New Zealand political story, Winston Peters, stepping in and stealing the scene? Oh, and also: was it ever really a coup?
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Donald Trump has gone within hours from genocidal threats against Iran to talking about a joint venture with Tehran tolling the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile ceasefire is very good news, but the havoc is set to continue to flow down into the New Zealand economy. Now with the perilous Cyclone Vaianu bearing down on New Zealand, perhaps the government should just declare it a force majeure election.

Toby, Annabelle and Ben gather to discuss the swirling crises, Winston Peters' encounter with Marco Rubio at the State Department in Washington, and whether the government is getting its response right. Plus: is it "overthinking" to detect some retribution in Christopher Luxon's decision to strip the roles of leader of the house and campaign chair from Chris Bishop, how might Simeon Brown adjust the campaign rudder, and did the PM really just forget about Tama Potaka?
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The NZ foreign minister was in DC to meet Marco Rubio just as Donald Trump raged about destroying Iran's civilisation. Mercifully, within hours the US president had announced a two-week ceasefire in the conflict. To help us get our heads around it all, Anna Fifield talks through the latest developments, assesses whether Winston Peters sent the right messages at the State Department, and shares her expertise on Iran, Lebanon and North Korea. Anna, who writes the members-only World Bulletin Weekly for the Spinoff and the Between Giants newsletter, has reported for the Financial Times and Washington Post from the Middle East, Asia, Europe and America.
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Covidesque in crisis-mode, but anti-Covid in substance, the government response to the economic shockwaves released from the war on Iran is playing out in New Zealand this week. Have Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon got it right with a $50 weekly payment that will help many, but miss out many more? Has a small-target-fixated Labour Party missed an opportunity? Are we all Hormuzologists now?Winston Peters, meanwhile, is pulling the crowds and playing the hits with a big speech in Tauranga that emphasised gentailer breakup and social conservatism, and unveiled, a little awkwardly, a new party candidate in former minister Alfred Ngaro. Has he nailed the in-power and in-opposition challenge, or is it just the populist-nationalist global winds blowing his way? And just what, by the way, is going on with the U-turn on commercial fishing size limits that everyone seems to be claiming credit for?Plus: how the claims about Chris Hipkins, made on Facebook by his ex-wife, made its way to the tiles of parliament. And Brooke van Velden is resigning from politics to spend more time with the public sector. What legacy does she leave, and what does it mean for the yellow-blue paradise of Tāmaki?
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