We're officially in the second half of the term, a milestone marked by the historic handover of the hallowed deputy prime minister amulet from Winston Peters to David Seymour. The moment comes with pageantry, a flurry of interviews and a pair of new polls, which deliver intriguing, and sometimes divergent results. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas pore over the results and what they mean for the parties and the politicians in the post-budget, post-pay-equity-reshape wash-up. Plus: Jim Bolger and Jacinda Ardern have boh been in the headlines in recent days. What do these returns tell us about the performance of their Chris-themed successors? And Chris Bishop found himself in a media moshpit after the Aotearoa Music Awards for calling the Stan Walker parade "crap" and earning the most painful denunciation imaginable: being called a dickhead by New Zealand treasure Don McGlashan.
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42:50
Budget special: When The Facts Change x Gone By Lunchtime
In the year of growth, Nicola Willis has presented a growth budget. But does the Investment Boost initiative, which speeds up depreciation for businesses, promise the kind of growth that the economy needs? In this special Spinoff pod for budget day, Toby Manhire asks Bernard Hickey for his take on the headline changes, and whether or not David Seymour’s earlier commentary that his colleague Brooke van Velden had “saved the budget” through its controversial and hurried changes to the pay equiry scheme, has been proven true. Plus: what are the cumulative impacts of the changes to KiwiSaver and Best Start, as compared to the SuperGold cohort? And how much did the global political and economic volatility influence the documents published today?
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28:46
House of C****
Unprecedented punishments imposed on Te Pāti Māori MPs, and the scramble to avoid banning them from the budget debate, is top of the agenda this week. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire assess the fallout, before rewinding to last week’s theatrical parliamentary controversy, all of which stemmed from a C-word in a newspaper column, and led Winston Peters, doyen of parliamentary decorum, to deplore a “House of Chaos” (by which he did not mean the popular monthly techno night at Firecrackers nightclub in Ashburton).
All of that, plus: we exclusively read the full text of tomorrow’s 2025 budget.
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54:33
Really, really urgent
An overhaul of the pay equity process has been whisked through parliament under urgency. The changes, which tighten the criteria for making a claim for workers in female-dominated sectors and summarily halt 33 existing claims in the pipeline, have prompted a major backlash, in part for their substance and in part for the decision to push the reform through without the usual consultation under a select committee process or regulatory impact statement.
Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire discuss the unexpected announcement, the rationale for urgency, whether it’s plausible to claim it’s not primarily motivated by the billions that will be saved ahead of a tight budget, and what impact, if any, it might have on the women’s vote. The trio also discuss Christopher Luxon’s enthusiastic backing of a bill that would follow Australia in banning social media for under-16s. What is with the surge in member’s bill as mechanisms for party campaigning, what is the polling telling politicians about young people and social media, and does Luxon know he’s the prime minister? Plus: Australians have returned Labor and Albanese to power in what is being called a “bloodbath”, hot on the heels of Mark Carney’s big comeback in Canada. How big is the Trump effect, is it good news for the left or good news for incumbents, and how might New Zealand politicians look to seize upon the Trumpy moment?
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52:31
Australian election special with Ben McKay
This Saturday Aussies will (compulsorily) head to the polls. At the start of the year, Labor under Anthony Albanese was staring down the barrel of defeat and the first one-term government for almost 100 years. But with a few days to go, the pollsters are all picking that he'll return to power. What changed? Where did Peter Dutton's makeover go wrong? What happened to the Coalition campaign? Did Donald Trump play a role?
To tackle these questions, complete with yarns about salmon and wallabies and paddling pool anomalies, is Ben McKay, Pacific editor for AAP and an illustrious former inhabitant of the New Zealand press gallery. In a special edition of the podcast temporarily renamed Gone By Brunchtime in recognition of the time difference, he talks to Toby Manhire about all that, the New Zealand influence across the Tasman, and what parties here might learn from there.
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New Zealand