The SAF Podcast

• The SAF Podcast: The annual SkyNRG and ICF SAF Market Outlook review

  This week's SAF Podcast is our now annual deep dive into the global SAF Market Outlook from SkyNRG and ICF. This year we were joined by Anna Lizernova, SkyNRG and Mark Kelly, ICF. After weeks of late nights and weekends on this extra curricular project they share key insights and methodologies from the report.The conversation kicks off with the key takeaways from the report notably, Europe's role as the backbone of SAF demand with strong mandates requiring over one million tonnes in 2025, rising to four million tonnes by 2030. Despite Europe driving demand, it represents only 18% of global jet fuel uplift, highlighting the critical need for policy development beyond European borders.Another major takeaway is Asia's remarkable growth, now accounting for nearly 30% of announced SAF capacity by 2030, overtaking Europe and trailing only the United States. The rise raising important questions about feedstock diversion, sustainability concerns, and potential fraud in waste oil supplies from the region.The discussion delves into demand modeling challenges, examining three scenarios ranging from pessimistic, realistic and optimistic outlooks through 2050. Mark explains the methodology behind forecasting policy-driven versus voluntary corporate demand, while Anna details SkyNRG's production mapping approach across nearly 400 global projects.The final and new section of the report, Mark and Anna give an overview of the "HEFA tipping point" – when demand for HEFA based SAF will exceed available sustainable feedstocks, likely around 2030-2031. This timeline creates urgency for advancing alternative pathways like e-fuels, which face their own regulatory and economic challenges. The experts navigate the complex interplay between policy design, investor confidence, technical feasibility, and sustainability imperatives that will determine SAF's future.What emerges is a nuanced picture: despite delays and setbacks, the industry continues moving forward, though perhaps not as rapidly as hoped. The coming years will be critical for project development, particularly for facilities using advanced technologies beyond conventional HEFA. With the amount of developments globally in SAF, is 30 pages enough to cover the ground or does it need extending to a 200 page thesis?Check out the full report here, it is well worth a read: https://skynrg.com/safmo25/If you enjoyed this check out our previous discussion with Jim Stonecipher, EdyMac about the lessons industry can learn from failed projects like Fulcrum BioEnergy: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2202964/episodes/17395177

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• The SAF Podcast: Jim Stonecipher - Fulcrum BioEnergy and a cautionary tale for SAF Production

  In this episode of The SAF Podcast, we are joined by Jim Stonecipher, Managing Director at EdyMac and former executive at Fulcrum BioEnergy. With over 30 years of chemical engineering experience, Jim offers a candid, behind-the-scenes look at Fulcrum's high-profile journey—from promise to Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company's ambitious vision to convert municipal solid waste into sustainable aviation fuel represented a promising technological pathway, but faced numerous obstacles—from COVID-related supply chain disruptions to fundamental issues with technology scale-up and integration.The conversation explores the delicate balance between technological development and financial reality, revealing how the notorious "valley of death" between pilot demonstration and commercial deployment claims so many promising innovations. Stonecipher advocates for more thorough engineering work early in the development process, describing it as "intelligence gathering" that identifies risks before they become expensive problems.At the heart of Stonecipher's message is some crucial advice for technology developers: pilot testing must be comprehensive, integrated, and representative of what will be deployed at commercial scale. "The more you can mimic at the pilot scale," he explains, "the higher your chances of success." This lesson, while seemingly straightforward, runs counter to the pressure many startups face to move quickly toward commercialization to satisfy investor timelines.The conversation also delves into investor relations, capital stack composition, and how early-stage decisions can make or break long-term success. Jim explains that he sees promise in more modular, incremental approaches to scaling SAF production—starting smaller, proving performance, and then replicating successful units rather than attempting massive facilities from the outset. This "Lego-style" approach could help bridge the gap between technological promise and commercial reality.If you enjoyed this episode check out our previous episode with Smitha Hariharan, Gulfstream here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2202964/episodes/17362935

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• The SAF Podcast: Gulfstream - Getting sandy in SAF's beachhead

  This week on the SAF Podcast Smitha Hariharan, Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer at Gulfstream Aerospace, discusses how one of the leading business jet manufacturer is pioneering sustainability through a comprehensive three-pillar strategy that balances environmental responsibility with business performance, with a heavy focus on Sustainable Aviation Fuel since 2011. From Gulfstream's groundbreaking 2011 transatlantic flight using 50% SAF to their 2023 achievement of flying a G600 from Savannah to Farnborough with 100% SAF in both engines (a full week before Virgin Atlantic's much-publicized commercial demonstration). Hariharan reveals Gulfstream's comprehensive sustainability strategy built on three pillars: aircraft efficiency, operational improvements, and fuel innovation. The company has committed to reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 40% by 2034 while supporting the aviation industry's ambitious 2050 net-zero goal. Their groundbreaking achievements include the first transatlantic business jet flight using 100% SAF—accomplished one week before Virgin's celebrated commercial flight.The conversation explores how corporate customers are increasingly demanding sustainable aviation solutions, driving business aviation's transformation. Hariharan discusses the critical importance of book-and-claim mechanisms for expanding SAF access, particularly at smaller regional airports where business jets operate. She also addresses the challenges of scaling beyond HEFA-based SAF to next-generation pathways essential for meeting 2050 targets.As a member of the Business Aviation Coalition for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Gulfstream continues advancing industry-wide SAF adoption through rigorous testing, ASTM evaluation processes, and strategic partnerships with engine manufacturers like Rolls-Royce. This episode provides invaluable insights into how business aviation serves as a crucial testing ground for sustainable aviation innovations that will eventually benefit the entire aviation sector.If you enjoyed this episode, check out our previous discussion which dives into Book and Claim more deeply with Andre de Fontaine about the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance here, https://www.buzzsprout.com/2202964/episodes/17279231

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• The SAF Podcast: Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance - Removing the barrier to corporate market entry

  This week Andre de Fontaine, Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA) joins us on The SAF Podcast. Founded in 2021, SABA has been at the forefront of driving the Book and Claim conversation and allowing corporates to purchase SAF for their operations when they cannot control what fuel they fly on. Andre explains how SABA has grown to include approximately 35 major companies—including BCG, Bank of America, Netflix, and Meta—that share ambitious climate targets and significant aviation footprints. Together, they've facilitated around $200 million worth of SAF certificates representing 50 million gallons of sustainable fuel. The evolution has been dramatic; what began as an almost non-existent market in 2021 now features multiple producers and growing corporate demand. We also discuss one of SABA's latest initiatives, the launch of SAF Connect, a platform designed to streamline the connection between SAF providers and buyers. Lowering the barriers to entry and the ease with which companies can access SAF is critical to accelerating the higher levels of demand. The conversation also looks at whether SAF certificates have the ability to provide the long time certainty required by investors to consider demand signals bankable and make projects worth investing in, how purchasing certificates directly from producers or in partnership with airlines differ.For more information about SABA and how you can get involved, visit flysaba.org.If you enjoy this episode check out our previous discussion with Gediminas Ziemelis, Avia Solutions Group here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2202964/episodes/17239222-the-saf-podcast-avia-solutions-group-unleasing-baltic-saf-production.mp3?download=true

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• The SAF Podcast: Avia Solutions Group - Unleasing Baltic SAF Production

  In this episode of The SAF Podcast, we welcome Gediminas Ziemelis, Founder and Chairman of Avia Solutions Group, to discuss the company’s move into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production through its NorSAF project. As the world’s largest wet-leasing provider, Avia Solutions Group operates across six continents and is now leveraging its extensive infrastructure to help decarbonize aviation.Gediminas shares how the company is developing a state-of-the-art SAF and eSAF production facility in Liepāja, Latvia, strategically positioned to serve the Baltic, Nordic, and Central European regions. He reveals how acquiring an existing oil storage terminal has saved years on permitting and construction, while enabling cost-effective scaling of synthetic SAF production using KBR’s PureSAF technology—based on captured CO₂ and green hydrogen.Behind this ambitious venture lies a revealing look at how nimble, privately-held companies can move faster in the green transition. Unlike publicly-listed giants retreating from environmental initiatives to focus on core business, Avia Solutions Group can make rapid decisions without justifying every move to shareholders. This agility might be exactly what's needed to accelerate aviation's sustainability journey.Beyond environmental benefits, Ziemelis frames the project as a strategic move toward European energy independence—drawing parallels to how Europe developed sugar beet production in the 18th century to reduce dependency on imported sugar cane. Could synthetic aviation fuel represent the next chapter in Europe's quest for energy sovereignty? Listen now to discover how the future of flight might be taking shape in the Baltic region.Check out our previous discussion with Dani Charles, Veriflux on AI and traceability here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2202964/episodes/17201492

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