Net Assessment

• Can Foreign Aid Be Reformed? Should It Be?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack review Adam Tooze’s recent article on the failure of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and Western-directed aid efforts generally. What should be the goals of foreign aid? Can development assistance, as it has recently been implemented, actually make a meaningful long-term difference in living standards? What might steep cuts in foreign aid mean for poor countries? In an era of great power competition, should we look at development assistance as a way to counter China’s influence? Grievances for the Trump administration’s policies toward China and its new deals with Qatar, and to the US Senate for failing to assert its authority over the war powers. Attas to President Trump for successfully brokering a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, and for negotiating a new deal with Finland to build icebreakers.   Links: Adam Tooze, “The End of Development,” Foreign Policy, September 8, 2025, Evan Cooper and Alessandro Perri, “Scenarios for US Foreign Aid in 2035,” Stimson Center, September 19, 2025 Max Bearak and Lazaro Gamio, “The U.S. foreign aid budget, visualized,” Washington Post, October 18, 2016 Rand Paul, “The Constitution Does Not Allow the President To Unilaterally Blow Suspected Drug Smugglers to Smithereens,” Reason, October 8, 2025 Kathryn Watson, “Hegseth announces Qatar will build air force facility at U.S. base in Idaho,” CBS News, October 10, 2025 “Putting the Global Order Back Together,” International Affairs Forum, Traverse City, MI, October 23, 2025 Valentina Finckenstein, How International Aid Can Do More Harm than Good: The Case of Lebanon, LSE Ideas, February 2021. William Easterly, The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good, Penguin Books, 2007. “Aid Cannot Make Poor Countries Rich,” The Economist, March 6, 2025. Noah Robertson, Katie Tarrant, Ellen Nakashima, “Bipartisan Move to Restrict Trump’s War Powers Fails in Senate,” Washington Post, October 9, 2025. Steve Holland, Anne Kauranen, Jeff Mason, and Gram Slattery, “Trump and Finland’s Stuff Approve Deal for Icebreaker Ships,” Reuters, October 9, 2025.

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• Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links: Jeffrey Friedman, “The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials,” Texas National Security Review, Fall 2025. “Ask The Experts,” Foreign Affairs. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press, 2017. Drew FitzGerald and Lara Seligman, “Pentagon Pushes to Double Missile Production for Potential China Conflict,” Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025. Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, “Is Trump Capitulating to China,” AEIdeas, September 25, 2025. Zack Cooper, “Rethinking the Rebalance,” IDSS Paper, September 5, 2025. Sam Rosenfeld and Matthew Yglesias, “The Incompetence Dodge,” American Prospect, October 23, 2005. Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Noah Robertson and Alex Horton, “Trump to attend gathering of top generals, upending last-minute plans,” Washington Post, September 28, 2025. Adam Goldstein, “Why our critics’ whataboutery over Jimmy Kimmel is wrong,” FIRE, September 22, 2025. Tom Karako, A Marie Kondo Moment for MTCR: Tidying Up the US Approach to Missile Proliferation, CSIS, September 23, 2025.  Elisabeth Buchwald, "Trump Vows to Enact 'Substantial' Tariffs on Imported Furniture," CNN, September 29, 2025.   

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• Is a Fight with Russia Worth the Risks?

  Chris, Zack, and Melanie take some time to talk about how the United States, Europe, and Russia are dealing with the Ukraine conflict. Would a Russian win in a war which is costing billions of dollars, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and reinforcing Moscow's junior partner status to China only be a pyrrhic victory? Does Russia hold a winning hand because it seems to be willing to take on greater risk than Europe and the United States? Was the passive American reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland a sign that the US is done providing security commitments to Europe? Have European governments reached a consensus on whether a sovereign Ukraine is worth a military fight with Russia? Chris is impressed with how Utah Governor Spencer Cox has handled the complex politics following the murder of Charlie Kirk, Zack has an atta for a colleague’s Golden Dome cost calculator, and Melanie is disappointed that the West Point Association of Graduates has cancelled an event at which Tom Hanks was to be awarded the Sylvanus Thayer Award for his longtime dedication to promoting stories of American heroism and innovation and elevating the stories of American veterans. Show Links: Robert Kagan, “The Beginning of the End of NATO,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Franz-Stefan Gady, “The Russia-Ukraine War: Europe’s Delusions over Deterring Russia,” September 10, 2025. Jeremy Shapiro, “Russia is Losing the War—Just Not to Ukraine,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Alexandra E. Petri, “West Point Alumni Group Cancels Award Honoring Tom Hanks,” New York Times, September 7, 2025. Mike Stone, “Trump to Reinterpret 1987 Missile Treaty to Sell Heavy Attack Drones Abroad,” Reuters, September 6, 2025. Charlie Edwards and Nate S, “The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure,” IISS, August 19, 2025.  “Heroes and villains: Russia braces for eventual return of its enormous army,” Reuters, September 9, 2025. Joshua Rovner, Strategy and Grand Strategy, The Adelphi Series, International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2025. McKay Coppins, “Trump Has a Warning for Spencer Cox,” The Atlantic, September 13, 2025. Todd Harrison, “Build Your Own Golden Dome: A Framework for Understanding Costs, Choices, and Tradeoffs,” American Enterprise Institute, September 12, 2025. US Policy Update on the Export of Unmanned Aerial Systems, State Department, September 15, 2025. 

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• How Will the U.S. Deal With a Weaponized World Economy?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman’s new article “The Weaponized World Economy.” Is the United States, which has been accused of weaponizing the global economy now getting a taste of its own medicine? Should America try to rebuild its economic security state for a world in which adversaries and allies can also employ economic coercion against us? And what are the key risks or challenges that the U.S. government will face if it goes down this path? Grievances for using the National Guard to pick up trash; to President Trump for toying with the idea of running for a third term; and to the Trump administration for botching the relationship with India. Attas to America’s workers on Labor Day – including the millions who came here from outside of the United States; to Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff for their performance in the last Cabinet meeting; and to a German firm, Luxcara’s, decision to drop Chinese technology in a new windfarm. Show Links: Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, “The Weaponized World Economy,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2025. Tara Copp, “National Guard troops deployed in D.C. add sanitation, landscaping duties,” The Washington Post, August 27, 2025. Paul Kiernan, “How a Historic Immigration Drop Is Changing the Job Market,” Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2025. “New Visions for Grand Strategy”  Marco Rubio, “New Visa Policies Put America First, Not China,” US State Department, May 28, 2025. Greg Ip, “The US Marches Toward State Capitalism with American Characteristics,” Wall Street Journal, August, 11, 2025. Jonah Goldberg, “The Donald Always Gets His Slice,” The Dispatch, August 27, 2025. Howard Lutnik on The Ingraham Angle, X post, August 25, 2025. Petra Sorge, “German Wind Farm to Drop China Turbine Order After Backlash,” Bloomberg, August 25, 2025. Noah Barkin, LinkedIn post, August 27, 2025.   Jason Ma, “Rural America is Suffering an Economic Crisis as Crop Prices Plunge — ‘US Soybean Farmers Cannot Survive a Prolonged Trade Dispute,’” MSN.com, August 30, 2025. Stimson event on September 17th, New Visions for Grand Strategy. Support Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/. 

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• A Strategy of Prioritization?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Jennifer Lind and Daryl Press’s recent article on strategies of prioritization. They examine the challenges of executing such a strategy and debate whether the Trump administration is actually implementing this approach in practice. Chris commends Emma Ashford for her forthcoming book on multipolarity, Melanie laments attacks on Medal of Honor recipient Florent Groberg, and Zack critiques the Trump administration’s efforts to collect export taxes. Show Links: Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “Strategies of Prioritization: American Foreign Policy After Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2025 Jasper Ward, “Trump says Xi told him China will not invade Taiwan while he is US president,” Reuters, August 16, 2025 Ilya Somin, “Trump’s Unconstitutional Export Tax Is Probably Here to Stay,” The Bulwark, August 15, 2025 Laura Loomer, X post, August 8, 2025 Florent Groberg, X post, August 8, 2025 Medal of Honor citation for Florent Groberg Ione Wells, “Bolivia Set to Elect First Non-Left-Wing President in Two Decades,” BBC, August 18, 2025 Emma Ashford, First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World (Yale University Press, 2025) The 100 Best Movies of the 21st Century, New York Times Support Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/  

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