Net Assessment

• Whither Venezuela?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack, convene for a wide-ranging discussion of U.S. current and prospective military operations against the country of Venezuela, and the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Why is the United States sending fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, and other assets to the Caribbean? What does the military buildup say about which voices in the administration are being heard? And is there anything that Maduro can do, any deal he can make with Donald Trump, to avoid regime change, with or without a military conflict? Grievances for universities who cave to Chinese pressure and stop reporting on human rights abuses, to the Department of Defense's new plan for facilitating foreign arms sales, and to Congress for the pointless government shutdown. Attas to Norway for realizing that Chinese-made electric vehicles are vulnerable to hacking, to Paul Kelly for realizing the John Lennon's "Imagine" is a terrible song, to the Supreme Court and some members of Congress for appearing to resist Trump's executive overreach (finally!), and to the nation's veterans on the occasion of their annual official holiday. Show Links: Missy Ryan, Vivian Salama, Michael Scherer, and Nancy A. Youssef, "Why Venezuela?" The Atlantic, November 6, 2025 Matthew Kroenig, "Trump Should Oust Maduro," Foreign Policy, November 7, 2025 Justin Logan and Lawrence Montreuil, "Don't Repeat Libya: The Dangers of US Intervention in Venezuela," Cato at Liberty, October 31, 2025 Alexander B. Downes and Lindsey A. O'Rourke, "The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela," Foreign Affairs, October 31, 2025 Dan Grazier, "Hegseth Wants to Make the Pentagon a Global Arms Bazaar," Responsible Statecraft, November 6, 2025 Brett Samuels, "Trump: 'I Doubt' US Going to War with Venezuela, but Maduro's Days are Numbered," The Hill, November 3, 2025.  Augusta Saraiva, "Trump's Move on Venezuela Splinters Region over Possible Strike," Bloomberg, November 1, 2025  "Norway Transport Firm Step Up Controls after Tests Show Chinese-Made Buses Can Be Halted Remotely," AP, November 5, 2025." Nadeem Badshad, "Counter-Terror Police Investigate Claim UK University Halted Research After Chinese Pressure," The Guardian, November 3, 2025. 

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• Are Rising Powers Over?

  Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Michael Beckley's new article, "The Stagnant Order and the End of Rising Powers." What consequences might the decline and greying of populations have for global security? Has the era of transformative discoveries ended? Has the United States become a "rogue superpower, with little sense of obligation beyond itself"? Have corruption, political dysfunction, and waning innovation made it impossible for states to pursue agendas of economic growth and national security?   Chris has a strong grievance for Congress which has failed to do its constitutional job and is again putting the country through a government shutdown, Zack praises President Trump for securing a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand, and Melanie is frustrated by President Trump putting more tariffs on Canada because of an ad featuring President Reagan that he didn't like.    Links   Francis J. Gavin, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era (International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2024). Brian Mann and Sarah McCammon, "People are having fewer kids. Their choice is transforming the world's economy," NPR, October 27, 2025. Julia Gledhill, "What You Need to Know about Pentagon and Military-Related Spending in H.R. 1," Stimson Center/Costs of War Project, October 23, 2025. Pooja Salhotra, "In Trump-Friendly Iowa, the President's Policies Have Hit Hard," New York Times, October 26, 2025. Lalee Ibssa and Ivan Periera, "Trump Raises Tariffs on Canada 10% After Reagan Ad Airs During World Series," ABC News, October 26, 2025. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Closes Billion-Dollar Deals with Australia, White House, October 20, 2025. Nicholas Eberstadt, "The Age of Depopulation: Surviving a World Gone Grey," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025.   Greg Iacurci, "ACA Enhanced Subsidy Lapse Could Hit Early Retirees Hardest Amid Shutdown Fight," CNBC, October 17, 2025.

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• Can Foreign Aid Be Reformed? Should It Be?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack review Adam Tooze's recent article on the failure of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and Western-directed aid efforts generally. What should be the goals of foreign aid? Can development assistance, as it has recently been implemented, actually make a meaningful long-term difference in living standards? What might steep cuts in foreign aid mean for poor countries? In an era of great power competition, should we look at development assistance as a way to counter China's influence? Grievances for the Trump administration's policies toward China and its new deals with Qatar, and to the US Senate for failing to assert its authority over the war powers. Attas to President Trump for successfully brokering a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, and for negotiating a new deal with Finland to build icebreakers.   Links: Adam Tooze, "The End of Development," Foreign Policy, September 8, 2025, Evan Cooper and Alessandro Perri, "Scenarios for US Foreign Aid in 2035," Stimson Center, September 19, 2025 Max Bearak and Lazaro Gamio, "The U.S. foreign aid budget, visualized," Washington Post, October 18, 2016 Rand Paul, "The Constitution Does Not Allow the President To Unilaterally Blow Suspected Drug Smugglers to Smithereens," Reason, October 8, 2025 Kathryn Watson, "Hegseth announces Qatar will build air force facility at U.S. base in Idaho," CBS News, October 10, 2025 "Putting the Global Order Back Together," International Affairs Forum, Traverse City, MI, October 23, 2025 Valentina Finckenstein, How International Aid Can Do More Harm than Good: The Case of Lebanon, LSE Ideas, February 2021. William Easterly, The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good, Penguin Books, 2007. "Aid Cannot Make Poor Countries Rich," The Economist, March 6, 2025. Noah Robertson, Katie Tarrant, Ellen Nakashima, "Bipartisan Move to Restrict Trump's War Powers Fails in Senate," Washington Post, October 9, 2025. Steve Holland, Anne Kauranen, Jeff Mason, and Gram Slattery, "Trump and Finland's Stuff Approve Deal for Icebreaker Ships," Reuters, October 9, 2025.

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• Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon's in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump's support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links: Jeffrey Friedman, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," Texas National Security Review, Fall 2025. "Ask The Experts," Foreign Affairs. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press, 2017. Drew FitzGerald and Lara Seligman, "Pentagon Pushes to Double Missile Production for Potential China Conflict," Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025. Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, "Is Trump Capitulating to China," AEIdeas, September 25, 2025. Zack Cooper, "Rethinking the Rebalance," IDSS Paper, September 5, 2025. Sam Rosenfeld and Matthew Yglesias, "The Incompetence Dodge," American Prospect, October 23, 2005. Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Noah Robertson and Alex Horton, "Trump to attend gathering of top generals, upending last-minute plans," Washington Post, September 28, 2025. Adam Goldstein, "Why our critics' whataboutery over Jimmy Kimmel is wrong," FIRE, September 22, 2025. Tom Karako, A Marie Kondo Moment for MTCR: Tidying Up the US Approach to Missile Proliferation, CSIS, September 23, 2025.  Elisabeth Buchwald, "Trump Vows to Enact 'Substantial' Tariffs on Imported Furniture," CNN, September 29, 2025.   

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• Is a Fight with Russia Worth the Risks?

  Chris, Zack, and Melanie take some time to talk about how the United States, Europe, and Russia are dealing with the Ukraine conflict. Would a Russian win in a war which is costing billions of dollars, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and reinforcing Moscow's junior partner status to China only be a pyrrhic victory? Does Russia hold a winning hand because it seems to be willing to take on greater risk than Europe and the United States? Was the passive American reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland a sign that the US is done providing security commitments to Europe? Have European governments reached a consensus on whether a sovereign Ukraine is worth a military fight with Russia? Chris is impressed with how Utah Governor Spencer Cox has handled the complex politics following the murder of Charlie Kirk, Zack has an atta for a colleague's Golden Dome cost calculator, and Melanie is disappointed that the West Point Association of Graduates has cancelled an event at which Tom Hanks was to be awarded the Sylvanus Thayer Award for his longtime dedication to promoting stories of American heroism and innovation and elevating the stories of American veterans. Show Links: Robert Kagan, "The Beginning of the End of NATO," The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Franz-Stefan Gady, "The Russia-Ukraine War: Europe's Delusions over Deterring Russia," September 10, 2025. Jeremy Shapiro, "Russia is Losing the War—Just Not to Ukraine," The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Alexandra E. Petri, "West Point Alumni Group Cancels Award Honoring Tom Hanks," New York Times, September 7, 2025. Mike Stone, "Trump to Reinterpret 1987 Missile Treaty to Sell Heavy Attack Drones Abroad," Reuters, September 6, 2025. Charlie Edwards and Nate S, "The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe's Critical Infrastructure," IISS, August 19, 2025.  "Heroes and villains: Russia braces for eventual return of its enormous army," Reuters, September 9, 2025. Joshua Rovner, Strategy and Grand Strategy, The Adelphi Series, International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2025. McKay Coppins, "Trump Has a Warning for Spencer Cox," The Atlantic, September 13, 2025. Todd Harrison, "Build Your Own Golden Dome: A Framework for Understanding Costs, Choices, and Tradeoffs," American Enterprise Institute, September 12, 2025. US Policy Update on the Export of Unmanned Aerial Systems, State Department, September 15, 2025. 

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