Net Assessment

• The Paradoxical Power?

  An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided country, perpetually perceived as in decline, yet it consistently remains the wealthiest and most powerful state in the world—leaving competitors behind.” But, he says, all is not well: an urban-rural divide and a “hollow internationalism” threaten our stability and security. Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about whether the United States is in decline, how our advantages might create vulnerabilities, and how dysfunction at home affects America’s ability to wield influence abroad. Chris has a shoutout for Gabe Murphy and his work on base realignment, Zack has a remembrance of recently-passed security scholar, practitioner, and mentor Joseph Nye, and Melanie criticizes the Biden administration for not coming clean about the extent of failure of the Gaza Pier. Links:  Michael Beckley, “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power Abroad Comes with Dysfunction at Home,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025. Michael Beckley, “The Age of American Unilateralism,” Foreign Affairs, April 16, 2025. Christopher Preble, “Trump’s Rise: Who’s to Blame?” Cato at Liberty, March 3, 2016. Alexander Cornwell, "US, Israel discuss possible US-led administration for Gaza, sources say," Reuters, May 7, 2025. Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/ Gabe Murphy, “Base Instincts: A Case for Base Realignment and Closures at Home and Abroad,” Taxpayers for Common Sense, May 2025. John Hendel, “The $42 Billion Biden Internet Program Frustrating Dems in Swing States,” Politico, September 4, 2024. Alex Horton, “Biden’s Gaza Pier Was More Dangerous and Costly than Previously Known,” Washington Post, May 7, 2025. John Arnold, Immigration chart, X, May 11, 2025.   

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  56:31
• Is Arms Control Dead?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion train wreck, to worrisome reports of deep cuts at the State Department, and for the Trump administration’s reported minerals deal in Ukraine. Zack offers a heartfelt attaboy to his mentor Richard Armitage, who passed away earlier this month after a lifetime of service. Attas also to Secretary of State Marco Rubio for not cutting State more, and to the Carnegie Endowment for a new report on the foreign policy attitudes of Generation Z.   Links: Rose Gottemoeller, “Arms Control Is Not Dead Yet: America Should Pursue Parallel Nuclear Negotiations With China and Russia,” Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2025 Christopher S. Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser, “What Gen Z Thinks About U.S. Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025 Geoff Wilson, Christohper Preble, and Lucas Ruiz, Gambling on Armageddon, Stimson Center, February 19, 2025  Nancy A. Youssef, Alexander Ward, and Vera Bergengruen, “Polygraph Threats, Leaks and Infighting: Pete Hegseth Rattled by Pentagon Chaos,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2025 Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/ “Armitage’s Story,” Last Days in Vietnam clip, PBS, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/lastdays-armitage/.  

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  51:25
• Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation frigate. Attas to Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber for standing up for academic freedom; for President Trump’s executive orders on the maritime industrial base and acquisition reform; and to Deputy DNI for Mission Integration William Ruger. And a bonus attagirl to our biggest fan: Melanie’s mom! Links: Tanner Greer, “Obscurity by Design: Competing Priorities for America’s China Policy,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 27, 2025. Ross Douthat, “Trump Is on a Path to Failure,” New York Times, April 12, 2025. “Gambling on Armageddon: Costs and Risks of Nuclear Modernization,” Online Event, Stimson Center, May 1, 2025, 2-3 pm ET Joseph Trevithick, “First Constellation Frigate Only 10% Complete, Design Still Being Finalized,” TWZ, April 10, 2025 Alistair MacDonald and Gordon Lubold, “The Warship That Shows Why the U.S. Navy Is Falling Behind China,” Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2025 Emma Ashford, “Foreign Policy Is Much More than a Liberal vs. Conservative Brawl,” War on the Rocks, March 13, 2020 Kenza Bryan and Demitri Sevastopulo, "Donald Trump Plans to Stockpile Deep-Sea Critical Metals to Counter China," Financial Times, April 12, 2025.  Arthur Delaney, Igor Bobic, and Jennifer Bendery, "GOP Changes House Rules to Prevent Themselves from Blocking Trump's Tariffs," HuffPost, April 9, 2025.  Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Humeyra Pamuk, "Trump Envoy's Embrace of Russian Demands Worries Republicans, US Allies," Reuters, April 12, 2025.  “The University President Willing to Fight Trump,” The Daily, New York Times, April 9, 2925.

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  58:11
• One Last Trip Around the World?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances.  If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/

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  23:58
• Will Israel Strike Iran?

  Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied American institutions. This episode's reading

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  48:39

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