The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Here's the headline: "3000 hospitality businesses close in a year".
That’s what the media not only does, but loves. They would perceive it as bad news and they can't pedal bad news enough.
But in the numbers are the real story.
The 3000 is made up of closures and liquidations. A closure can mean nothing more than a person leaving the country or closing one establishment to open another. That happens all the time.
It's not a sign of anything other than mood or inspiration.
It's important to also remember that there are more openings than closures. That’s the real story, so in essence the hospitality scene is actually growing.
Not that a headline about 3000 closures would ever tell you that.
Ironically, it's also perhaps an insight into the reality of hospitality, which is to say it's a very easy entry into business, given a lot of hospitality is hole-in-the-wall sandwich-type stuff, often by migrants, that comes and goes.
So on one hand we are growing and on the other it's an in-and-out sort of operation that is not really reflective of a wider economy, or its story.
The next part of the stats dump is liquidations. They tell us liquidations are up 42% year on year. That sounds bad, until you hear the next number, which is 1.3%.
The 1.3% is the percentage of businesses that actually end up liquidated, which of course is hardly any.
98.7% are not liquidated, so the 42% is off an extremely low base and not, if you were being honest, worthy of a headline.
But remember the key here; it's all about bad news.
Do you want a worse one?
Takeaway liquidations were up 143%. That's a shocker, except, remember that takeaways is a subset of overall liquidations and the liquidations only represent 1.3%. So imagine how small the actual number of fish and chip shops this actually involves is. So, 143% of what?
So, to the narrative. If a headline is all you ever see you will believe we are a dump, it’s a mess and things aren't improving. And yet the truth is a whole different thing.
In these numbers and the narrative is the modern-day story of news and information; what's real versus what they want you to think is real.
It sadly requires work on your part to get to the real story.
And in this case, it is nowhere near as bad as they make out. In fact, it's almost entirely the opposite.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Suckling is one of the biggest names in the wine game.
The American critic has been tasting thousands of wines every year for decades, and his tick of approval is worth its weight in gold in the industry.
And a few years ago, he put that weight behind New Zealand's wine production, buying his own vineyard in Martinborough – Mirae.
Suckling told Mike Hosking that the purchase was serendipitous, as he'd never planned on owning a vineyard.
"I was in Martinborough ... this was 2022 after Covid, so I hadn't been in ten years, and so I wanted to come back," he explained.
"I went with a mate of mine who's a Kiwi ... and I'm like mate, let's go and check out the best vineyards in New Zealand."
"I didn't remember it as such a magnificent place, but in the back of my mind I kept on thinking, wow, you know, this could be the last place on Earth to make great fresh wines."
And so when he saw a for sale sign on a vineyard called Kiwa, it was love at first sight.
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 3rd of September, Finance Minister Nicola Willis discusses the Reserve Bank hiking the Official Cash Rate and Methanex closing their Taranaki plant.
Reserve Bank Governor Dr Anna Breman explains their decision to lift the OCR by 25 basis points.
Arguably the number one wine critic in the world, James Suckling talks about investing into the NZ wine scene and why we're one of the last frontiers able to produce great wine.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government is cracking down on organised crime, targeting what it's calling New Zealand's biggest security threat.
Casey Costello has been appointed the first Organised Crime Minister, setting up a five-member panel of government agency chief executives, co-chaired by the Police Commissioner and Customs Controller.
She told Mike Hosking it's about building stronger international relationships with governments and strengthening legalisation.
Costello says 14 tonnes of cocaine was intercepted in the Pacific in the first six months of this year, so it must be stopped before it reaches New Zealand's borders.
She says work will start before the election so the new Government can hit the ground running.
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Signs of recovery for the building sector, though some places are bouncing back faster than others.
Master Builders' annual State of the Sector survey finds 68% of its members report a strong or steady pipeline of work – up slightly on last year.
Recent homeowners are also more confident, with 91% saying they'd recommend building to others, and three quarters experiencing no delays.
CEO Ankit Sharma told Mike Hosking the recovery around the country varies.
He says Auckland and Wellington are still in the early stages, but southern and regional New Zealand is doing well.
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.