The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The Government has backed down on it's plan to enable the sale of conservation land.
They've decided to remove the 'Disposal and Exchange' provisions from the bill.
Conservation Minister Tama Potaka told Mike Hosking that, 'There's no intention to sell off huge swathes of the conservation estate, but clearly that intention didn't materialise in the words. That's on me.'
He said the Government is working with Forest and Bird, NGOs and Iwis to make sure the intentions and details of the bill suit all parties.
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A tourism heavy-hitter says the Government's new Tourism Policy Statement may sound dull to some, but is extremely important.
It's set out goals for the sector, and detailed how it plans to get there over the next decade.
The statement's made up of eight policy objectives - including striving for tourism that works for all regions, and delivering hig quality visitor experiences.
Tourism Industry Aotearoa CEO Rebecca Ingram told Mike Hosking this is huge for the sector.
She says tourism's a 46-billion-dollar industry, which creates one in nine jobs, and this is their first ever policy view.
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Signs the economic fallout from the Iran conflict may be shorter-lived than feared.
Westpac economists are forecasting brighter outlooks for inflation, interest rates and the wider economy, as fuel price concerns ease.
They expect GDP growth to reach two percent this year, while inflation is forecast to peak this quarter before declining.
Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold told Mike Hosking the oil market has been more resilient than many expected.
He says headline inflation globally isn't rising as quickly, and the urgency central banks previously felt to raise rates is no longer there.
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The Trade Minister's rejecting accusations National's gone behind India's back, to impose restrictive immigration settings explicitly for Indians.
Winston Peters raised the claims during the first reading of the India trade deal in Parliament yesterday - it passed last night.
The New Zealand First leader says officials chose not to announce the new criteria - for fear of India's reaction.
Todd McClay told Mike Hosking it feels like Peters is playing games - and it's time for him to move on.
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The only winner out of political polls is the media for the simple reason it gives them a chance to pontificate and clickbait.
"Luxon fronts media after bad poll”.
Why is that the headline as opposed to "Hipkins answers questions after poll collapse"?
Let's do some simple math: there are about 53% of voters who are broadly centre-right. Pollsters will tell you this to be true.
If you accept NZ First are doing well, their highest number is 15% so take that off your 53%, you are down to 38%.
Take a chunk off for ACT, they seem to be about 7-9% so let's call it 8%, and you're at 30%, which is where National roughly are.
The numbers make perfect sense. It's not a "bad poll", it's simple math.
If there is one “real” story in any given poll, especially this week's one, it's that the main parties of Labour and National are sharing a shrinking slice of the vote, which if you like MMP is what is supposed to happen.
The Greens, ACT and NZ First have established themselves as a permanent presence. We should be celebrating this, not because of specific policy, but because we voted for a system that spreads the vote and provides greater representation.
That’s what we wanted so that is good news.
Also, you've got Opportunity at 4%. I don’t think they'll get there, but if I'm wrong and they get the 5% and they go on to become the newest member of the permanent club, that is further support that will bleed away from the major players.
The media coverage discusses none of this because I suspect they haven't thought about it, or indeed they may not even understand it.
A lot of Europe with proportional systems have Governments led by parties who won the election with a vote in the 20's, if not low 20's. That is proportional representation.
Here's the next big question: it's been ruled out by the Greens, but not Labour, so why not cut the head of Opportunity an electorate deal in Mt Albert?
Mt Albert is tight. Helen White won it by a whisker. Opportunity could split the vote and hand the place to the Nats, or Labour could David Seymour it and Epsom her into Parliament and thus create a brand-new coalition partner.
That’s the really interesting part of the polls and machinations. But no, the media just want "Luxon fronts media after bad poll".
They are stuck in the 90's. This is a way more gripping story than they are telling.
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