The Mike Hosking Breakfast

For what it's worth, let me have a crack at the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll.
Firstly, officially, I pay no attention to them other than a broad theme i.e. a collection of polls and an overarching trend.
The trend continues in this latest poll with the Government being re-elected by a fairly heavy margin, 65 seats to 55.
Small point: is it me or do there seem to be a lot of polls? Is it because of election year? It's not cheap to do a poll so someone is either fascinated, or flush.
Then of course we get to the now well accepted truth that getting people to participate isn't easy. In fact, it's getting harder and the age-old concept of 1000 random people is well and truly gone as they hand out food vouchers and rewards to take part.
The next problem with this poll is the NZ First figure of 13.6%, which is up four points. That isn't real.
That’s about a 30%-ish increase. No one grows or loses their support at that pace.
You also see a shift fairly dramatically to the Government. National is up, NZ First is up, and ACT is up. The Government are on fire according to this. Are they?
But despite all that moderately interesting analysis, all the NZ Herald could do yesterday was focus on the fact National had failed to get 30%, even though it was 29.8%. And you always round up, so it was 30%.
Why we fixate on large parties in an MMP environment I still don’t know. MMP is about parties and deals. This election is about two choices – the current lot, or the other lot.
On this poll, in fact virtually in all polls, the current lot win.
If you want to fixate on National then, yes, if these numbers were real, they would lose some seats. But that’s because they did well last time and why did they do well last time? Ardern, Hipkins, Robertson, and Covid.
Case closed.
Parties that ride high in one election tend to shrink in the next. It's not fun if you are in the middle of it but it's political reality nevertheless.
In an environment where the vote is so widely split, having 30%+ parties will get more and more rare. It's not a bad thing, but the media having decided they hate Luxon can't look past it.
Maybe for them it's more fun than the reality of the overall poll, which is of course their preferred option.
The left is getting spanked.
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Time's ticking, with Donald Trump threatening the end of Iran if a deal isn't reached in the next few hours.
The US President's giving Tehran until midday before he orders the complete demolition of the country's bridges and power infrastructure.
He's posted on social media a 'whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again'.
However, he appears to be weighing up a plea from mediator Pakistan to extend the deadline by two weeks.
US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking Trump’s threats have drawn sharp responses even from his former allies.
He says Piers Morgan has referred to the threats as “brazen pre-admission of genocide”, Marjorie Taylor Greene has called for Trump to be removed from office, and Tucker Carlson has called the US President’s message “vile on every level”.
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Today on Politics Wednesday, Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen joined Mike Hosking to delve into some of the biggest stories of the week thus far.
They discussed the UN and their mandate of a rules-based order in relation to Donald Trump and the US' actions in the Middle East, Kahurangi Carter's Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill, and the BSA.
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 8th of April, the world waits for Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to pass to see if "a whole civilisation will die tonight".
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters joins directly after speaking to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen talk the global ‘rules-based order’, the BSA, and the parody and satire bill on Politics Wednesday.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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New Zealand's new 'Temu tax' is officially in play.
All low-value goods worth less than $1000 dollars coming into the country as commercial freight are being charged a low-value levy or tax of $2.21.
It patches-up a Customs loophole allowing e-commerce businesses like Temu and Shein to pay next-to-nothing for approval on thousands of packages.
First Retail's Chris Wilkinson told Mike Hosking it's not made to raise Customs revenue, but to recoup the costs currently being paid by the taxpayer.
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