The Mike Hosking Breakfast

We now have a poll in all seven of the Māori seats, which gives us a chance to at least make some sort of observation.
It's more than fair to suggest these polls are even ropier than the major polls, which have been all over the place at the best of times.
They are smaller, have greater margins of error, and involve a group that at first blush doesn’t automatically represent the demography of the area polled. It has a "whoever answered the phone" vibe about it.
Be that as it may, they give us really the only insight into what might happen.
And what might happen is important because you could see multiple things:
1) The exit of a party from Parliament,
2) An overhang that shapes the next Government,
3) A party that once dominated the Māori landscape reduced through their own implosion to an insignificant rump.
In seven polls we seem to have Labour well ahead in a couple, the Māori Party well ahead in a couple, and three that are too close to call. In one of the “too close to calls”, a Green candidate leads, which could be history.
The most obvious outworking is if this doesn’t go well for the Māori Party, there may be no real overhang. For example, if they only win two seats and get about 2% of the party vote there will be no overhang, as opposed to getting 2% of the party vote and winning five seats.
The risk Labour took was twofold:
1) Winning seats that would make no difference to their overall result given the party vote will drive final numbers,
2) In doing so wrecking the prospects of a fellow coalition member.
And I suppose you could also argue:
3) Damaging their reputation as a once proud dominator of the Māori seats.
The same recipe applies to the Greens. If they won one then good on them, but it would make no difference in the House. So really the only net gain recipient in any of this is the Māori Party, who have put it all on the line by campaigning for the seat alone.
If it goes badly, and winning only two out of seven would be bad, they of course have no one to blame but themselves. They imploded through hubris.
At that point, if anyone wants to learn, the collapse of various versions of a Māori Party would then be getting to be quite the story. But maybe that’s for November 8th.
For now, the polls show it could make all the difference on the night. Or none at all.
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Praise for Liam Lawson from one of Formula 1's most charismatic characters.
Guenther Steiner is a former Team Principal for Haas, as well as the Former Managing Director and Technical Operations Director for what became Red Bull Racing.
"When [Lawson] came in in the beginning ... he was very good straightaway, and then obviously he was moved to the big team, but, and then I wouldn't even say he struggled," Steiner told Mike Hosking.
"He wasn't given a chance in my opinion,"
"I think nobody deserves anything, you have to work for it, and he worked for it, and he was successful."
"So that's why he should be there."
Steiner is on our shores this December for his live stage show, 'No Team Orders'.
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 22nd of October, we preview today's inflation rate, which will likely be either good or okay news for the Government.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins goes through the debate fact check with Mike and discusses how the Māori seats will affect their prospects.
Former F1 team manager for Haas, Guenther Steiner is on his way to country in December and joined us to give us the lowdown of what his show will involve.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The sold-out sign is up for New Zealand's opening two T20 cricket matches against India in Christchurch, but that doesn't necessarily mean a home crowd given the local support for the visitors.
The sides last met in March's World Cup final at Ahmedabad, won by India.
Black Caps coach Rob Walter has outlined the series priorities for the five T20s, five ODIs, and two tests.
He told Mike Hosking the test matches are part of the World Test Championships, so they're very important, while the T20s are part of the World Cup finals, so they'd like to get an edge on them in their own conditions.
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There is a positive picture to be found within the Mood of the Boardroom, says EMA's Head of Advocacy and Strategy.
Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking that the underlying numbers are becoming more visible, which is beginning to give the business sector "a bit more confidence in a longer-term recovery".
Manufacturing has been a quiet achiever while the residential construction sector is picking up, McDonald said.
"The numbers for tourism have finally gone back to pre-Covid levels, so that's also a good story."
However, hiring intentions within the boardroom were "still fairly flat", which was indicative of the caution surrounding the country's economic recovery, he said.
"A lot of places have cut staff, or haven't cut, but haven't replaced. So they're running fairly lean anyway."
Asked for a word to summarise the mood, McDonald said: "Cautiously optimistic on the back of some pretty sound numbers."
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