The Mike Hosking Breakfast

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.

The Warriors: 8/10
Come on! Let's start with the good news – we're one from one. A thrashing against a good side and another home game tonight.

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi: 6/10
She's back. Whether she likes being back is another thing, but good on her for fighting her corner and exposing her crappy little party.

The Covid report: 6/10
Told us what we already knew and changes nothing. Listen to Hipkins. You reckon he knows how to say sorry?

Oil: 1/10
If you ever wanted proof over how far off we are in renewables, check our reaction to $120 a barrel.

Trump: 2/10
It's over, it's not over, we need to win more, we've only just got started, I could end it today, I could end it in an hour. He redefines mental.

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My observations on week two of the war.
I'm as convinced as ever I was that this thing is over in the four week-ish window they said it would be.
If true, it means we should not have spent the week guessing when it will be over because we have already been told.
If I worry about anything it's miscalculation. The trouble with the miscalculation is we don’t really know if it is or not because most of what we hear is from the President and his Secretary of War, both of whom are cartoonish in their persona.
To say out loud he was surprised at the size of the Iranian navy is shocking. To say out loud, and both have, that they were surprised Arab states got attacked is even more shocking.
But then this was a bloke yesterday travelling through middle America telling the crowds at a rally that prices were coming down, so my faint hope is even though he is completely detached from reality, the people in the uniforms aren't.
I have no doubt Iran is fairly flattened and their ability to do a lot going forward that would bother the Western world is now severely limited.
But I also know oil isn't flowing and my equal bet is more people are worried about oil than they are about Iran.
That’s why this war, polls show, has no buy-in. We don’t care and we never did. Mind you, we may have been saved from ourselves of course because we would care if the Iranians ever really got nuclear weapons.
So if this thing ends within a month or so and oil is back to $68 a barrel, all in all, it will have been worth it.
It also shows beyond a shadow of doubt that renewables are nowhere near the answer, given when the Strait of Hormuz got closed, we didn’t all turn on our windmills.
But at the end of week two what I know is this: the economy is everything.
Economics is everything and this war will end not because Iran has been beaten, but because oil is king, petrol drives economies and Americans are voting later this year. And if they can't afford the bills because their President got sucked in by Israel, he's toast.
And as mad as Trump is, he's no idiot.
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Members of the International Energy Agency have unanimously agree to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves to help combat steep oil prices arising from the conflict in the Middle East.
It equates to about four-days' worth and is the largest ever release of reserves in the agency's history.
The US is releasing 172 million barrels from their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning next week.
US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking the move will result in a 40% decrease in the US’ oil backstop.
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It's Friday, which means Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson are back with Mike Hosking to Wrap the Week that Was.
With the ongoing uncertainty surrounding oil prices, the Government is considering heading back to the Muldoon-era and instituting car-less days if all else fails, so Tim, Kate, and Mike took a look back at what those days were like.
And should you watch something just to see how bad it is? Mike is gobsmacked the Melania documentary was ever made, and thinks everyone needs to watch it.
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An energy industry lobby group is warning the decline in domestic gas supply is a sign of a shrinking economy.
PwC research —commissioned by Gas Industry Co— suggests the gas market must contract sharply as domestic supply falls, potentially leading to business closures, job losses, and higher energy costs.
The research assumes the Maui field will stop producing in 2027.
Energy Resources Aotearoa Chief Executive John Carnegie told Mike Hosking modelling suggests the economic impact will be significant.
He says a report for MBIE found that without LNG terminals and with the loss of domestic supply, New Zealand's GDP will be about 0.1% lower in 2035.
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