The Bulwark Daily

Not only did the lamest of October surprises blow up in the faces of Ken Paxton and the rightwing loons desperate to get Talarico on something, Greg Abbott is now in a tight race with his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa. And all the money pouring in to prop up Paxton could be better spent on Senate races in Alaska and Kansas. This would be a great time for the Democratic Governors Association to steer (a lot) more funding Hinojosa's way. Plus: Bill and Tim share their long shots, POTUS can't quit showing how much he's in the tank for Putin, MBS is finding out the hard way how the Trump family treats their business partners, don't be distracted by DHS's clownish authoritarianism in raiding Ilhan Omar's home, and the Iranian family that Tim has been advocating for is still in the Dilley detention center.
Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.
show notes:

Will Sommer and Andrew on MAGA's Talarico breakdown

Bill in "Morning Shots" on thinking beyond the midterms

Bill's "Bulwark on Sunday" with Ron Brownstein

Brendan on the Trump superfan running in upstate New York

Blake Gendebien's campaign site (NY-21)

Gina Hinojosa's campaign

Tim's piece on Maryam Tahmasebi and her family

October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off

Bulwark LIVE in Atlanta on Oct. 20

Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - “She’s Leaving You”

The Bulwark store

Get 15% off OneSkin with the code BULWARK at https://www.oneskin.co/BULWARK
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While the cult of Trump is dragging Republicans' popularity down, the Democrats have good, ideologically diverse candidates running all over the place. And voters aren't stupid: They know Trump's war and his tariffs are why prices are higher. But high-profile polling misses in recent years still haunt Dems, so Adam takes a deep dive into whether Republicans are doing better than the polls are showing. Plus: Derek explains how AI is making our lives more expensive and ponders why people behind AI think it's the most dangerous thing in the world yet still keep trying to build it as fast as possible. And no, AI does not have feelings.
Derek Thompson and Adam Carlson join Tim Miller for the weekend pod.
show notes:

Derek's "The 26 Most Important Facts About AI and the Economy"

Sam's interview with the guy who snitched on Guilfoyle

Tim's Take on Vance discussing socialism

Nate Silver on Derek's "Plain English" pod

The New Yorker video, "Josh's Wedding," that Tim referenced

Johnny Garcia's campaign site in TX-35

Katy Padilla Stout's campaign site in TX-23

October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off

Closing song: Orville Peck's "It's the End of the World"

Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20

The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield

The Bulwark store

The king of the birther conspiracy knows he needs to round up the white male vote, so he's serving up one of his old faves—straight-up anti-Muslim bigotry. And he's added a new one: Making Americans pay for another political ad, this time about what a tough guy he is. But Trump also has another corruption problem, courtesy of Trump Jr.'s ex-fiancée, Amb. Kimberly Guilfoyle, who seems to have a habit of calling in very expensive favors. Plus: Rubio is laying the groundwork for 2028, Hegseth is lobbying to keep his job after the midterms, the Democratic establishment is coming together for El-Sayed, Bibi has been very bad for Israel, and Trump has created a long-term security crisis for the West as a result of his Iran war.
Susan Glasser joins Tim Miller.
show notes:

Susan on Hegseth declaring victory in the wrong war

The NYT on Iran forcing Trump and Hegseth to retreat

Sam's interview with the guy who snitched on Guilfoyle

Susan's 'Political Scene' podcast

Trump falling asleep during the Susan Dell photo-op

Will Sommer on the Andrew Tate eel-sex problem

October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off

Closing song: MJ Lenderman's "She's Leaving You"

Upcoming Bulwark LIVE show in Atlanta on Oct. 20

The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield

The Bulwark store
Join at functionhealth.com/THEBULWARK and use code THEBULWARK25 for a $25 credit.

Florida's Democratic nominee for the Senate says average Americans right now are living in the dreams of oligarchs and the super-rich, and it's time for regular people to live their own dreams. The progressive maverick promises to fight to help all Floridians—regardless of party—to be healthy, prosperous, and safe. And while Republicans like to point out Nixon's DSA affiliation, the Trump administration itself is acting socialist, while also sending immigrants back to countries like Cuba and Venezuela. Plus: Nixon weighs in on Vance's racist dog whistle, and Tim praises Troy Jackson's debate performance against Susan Collins—who seemed out of touch and was forced to play defense over Trump, the war, and the stupid tariffs.
Angie Nixon joins Tim Miller.
show notes:

Angie’s campaign site

October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off

Upcoming Bulwark LIVE shows, including Atlanta on Oct. 20

Closing Song: The War on Drugs - “Suffering”

The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield

The Bulwark store

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Destroying trust in the government is one of Trump's key sources of power, but Michael reports from the front lines of the deep state that there still are good employees serving the public interest. In his new book, Michael celebrates some of the heroes who either managed to survive DOGE—or were stupidly pushed out despite the vital roles they filled. And the absolute failures of DOGE raise serious questions about how Elon could be trusted to run any enterprise. Plus: Trump sure sounded like he was inviting Iran to bomb two big blue cities, and Republicans are rushing money to South Carolina and a very GOP district in Kentucky. Seems like Tim and Bill were onto something with their long-shot midterms picks on Monday.
Michael Lewis joins Tim Miller.
show notes:

Michael's new book, "Blockers: Rebels in the Deep State"

Tim's 'Take' on how Trump's corporate enablers should be worried about 2027

Michael's post-Katrina piece, "Wading Toward Home"

"The Fifth Risk," Michael's book on Trump 1.0

Michael on Sam Bankman-Fried, "Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon"

October Surprise: The Bulwark is 30% off

Upcoming Bulwark LIVE shows, including Atlanta on Oct. 20

Closing Song: MJ Lenderman - She’s Leaving You

The Bulwark’s campaign to help the Haitian community of Springfield

The Bulwark store