The Afterburn Podcast

Video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/2JnUysRvRvs

On the evening of Sunday, March 22nd, Air Canada Flight 8646 — operated by Jazz Aviation — collided with an airport firefighting and rescue vehicle that had been cleared to cross Runway 4 at LaGuardia Airport. The captain and first officer were both killed. 41 of the 72 passengers and 4 crew members were transported to the hospital, with 9 remaining hospitalized as of Monday morning.

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The United States operates roughly 19 military sites across the Middle East — 8 of them permanent. For decades that presence was the strategy. Deterrence through presence. If you can see us, you won't mess with us.That calculus may be changing.In this video I break down the US basing problem in the Middle East — what it looked like going into the Iran war, what's happened since Operation Epic Fury began, and the uncomfortable question nobody wants to answer: are these bases now a liability?Five US Air Force refueling aircraft were damaged at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Al Udeid — the crown jewel of US air operations in the region and home to the Combined Air Operations Center — has been a consistent Iranian target. Iran sent a direct message to Jordan warning its population to pressure their government to remove US forces. And Gulf states hosting US bases have absorbed billions in economic damage specifically because they allowed the US to operate from their soi

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The war in Iran is escalating — and the weapons being used are getting bigger. In this video I break down three major developments from the last 48 hours.First, the GBU-72 Advanced 5K Penetrator — America's newest 5,000-pound bunker buster — has been confirmed in combat, used against missile storage facilities threatening the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

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A US F-35 was forced into an emergency landing at a US airbase in the Middle East after being struck by suspected Iranian fire during a combat mission over Iran. CENTCOM confirmed the emergency landing and that the pilot is in stable condition — but has not confirmed what hit it or whether it was enemy fire.

 

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Iran struck Dubai International Airport for the fourth time — the busiest international airport in the world. Flights suspended. Every major international carrier pulled out. War risk premiums are up somewhere between 300 and 1,000 percent depending on the source. Emirates was still running a limited schedule, and I want to talk about what that means for a flight crew managing fuel state and divert options in an active threat environment. 

We also cover why the reduced Iranian drone and missile launch numbers may not mean what officials are saying they mean — War on the Rocks published an interesting piece on this worth walking through. Pre-war estimates put Iran's drone inventory somewhere between several thousand and over 10,000. The math on that matters. 

And then the ally situation. Germany, France, Italy, Greece, Spain, Australia, Poland — all out on securing the Strait of Hormuz. Japan and South Korea reviewing but uncommitted. The UK won't send warships and won't call it a NATO mission. President Trump responded this morning with a direct statement about letting the countries that use the Strait be responsible for it.

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