The Fourcast

Germany’s far-right party has won a major victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, although it remains to be seen whether the AfD will be able to form a government there.
Nevertheless, the result has sent shockwaves not only through Germany, but across Europe too. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, a far-right party could gain power in a German state.
Why is the AfD surging? How much is its success being driven by immigration, economic frustration and anger at the political establishment? And what could its rise mean for Germany’s relationship with Russia, NATO and the EU?
Matt Frei is joined by author and commentator John Kampfner and Dr Sarah Wagner, a researcher in political science at Queen’s University Belfast, to examine whether this is a political blip or a watershed moment for Germany and Europe.

Senior Reform officials have been caught on camera discussing ways to get thousands of pounds of foreign money into the party, potentially breaking electoral law.[Subscribe to our Substack newsletter: https://channel4news.substack.com/subscribe]A Channel 4 News and Verbatim Investigations investigation found that James Orr, Reform’s Head of Policy, and Dan Jukes, a close aide to Nigel Farage, arranged for a US company to secretly fund three influential polls commissioned by the party. Since we aired the story, the two officials involved have stepped down from their positions but deny wrongdoing, and rival parties have reported Reform to the police. The Reform party has denied wrongdoing and launched an internal investigation. Nigel Farage has insisted that the party has broken no laws.To discuss all of this, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by political commentator and former Reform member Tim Montgomerie, Labour MP Dame Emily Thornberry, as well as the barrister and election law expert Tom Gillie.

Restaurant critic and writer Jay Rayner says restaurants are much more than a set of tables and chairs. In an age of rising costs, social media trends and pressure on the hospitality industry, he argues that restaurants remain vital spaces for creativity, community and human connection.
In this episode of Ways to Change the World, he tells Krishnan Guru-Murthy why he would ban tipping. How restaurants help people connect in ways few other public spaces can. And why he believes going out to eat is good for society. He also discusses the challenges facing the restaurant industry, the rise of influencers and online food culture. And states why there’s nothing wrong with taking that photo of your meal.

A potentially “supersized” El Niño is forecast for this winter - and scientists warn it could bring more extreme weather, from droughts and heatwaves to devastating floods.
But what happens when El Niño collides with a world already being reshaped by climate change?
On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether governments, businesses and the global financial system are prepared for the shocks ahead.
He speaks to Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading and an anticipatory action expert at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who explains how early warning systems can help communities prepare before disaster strikes, and economist Dr Matthew Winning, from UCL’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, looks at the wider economic consequences - from food prices and supply chains to insurance, investment and our pensions.
As extreme weather becomes harder to predict, should we rethink the way we plan for disasters? And is it already too late to rely on the old idea of a “one-in-100-year” event?

Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have faded as retaliatory strikes flare up once again across the Middle East. And with Donald Trump warning of further military escalation, is the world at risk of yet another economic shock?
So what’s behind the new wave of strikes in the Middle East? And could Iran be at risk of losing control of its ultimate bargaining chip - the Strait of Hormuz.
In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban break down the geopolitical signals shaping this war. Joined by the economist Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, they discuss global markets, inflation, and whether an exit strategy exists for either side.