The Peel with Turner Novak

Nuno Goncalves Pedro is the Founder and Managing Partner at Chamaeleon. He won't describe it this way, but I'd call Chamaeleon something like "The RenTech of VC."

Chamaeleon is built around its proprietary data platform, Mantis, which borrows tools like factor analysis from public-market investors and operates more like a quant hedge fund than a traditional venture firm.

We talk through a bunch of data that cuts against the common narrative in venture, including why repeat founders aren't always the safer bet, why sub-$100m funds catch the majority of fund-returning deals, and why 10x might be a better target than 100x.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.

Timestamps:
(1:00) When 1st time founders outperform serial entrepreneurs
(8:05) Mantis: factor-driven quant model for VC
(18:33) Why most VC’s are not data-driven
(22:28) Top 1% VC fund performance
(27:41) Early customer sentiment stronger success indicator than PMF or Team
(34:09) Importance of co-investors on performance
(39:42) Sub-$100M funds capture 70% of fund-returning deals each year
(43:53) The Neolab AI bubble
(52:16) Marketing games that VC’s play
(55:22) Most investors are not high conviction
(56:43) Startups not raising for at least 3 years are 5x less likely to succeed. 10x less likely at 5 years.
(1:00:19) Emerging managers have lowest LP interest in the last 15 years
(1:11:19) LP capital is much less concentrated than in 2011
(1:16:28) The importance of remaining relevant
(1:21:01) You must lean into your unique edge as an investor
(1:23:18) Pros/Cons of an alumni network venture strategy
(1:28:29) Specialist funds outperform generalists (with a catch)
(1:35:22) The data says go for 10x, not 100x returns
(1:41:41) Should you start or join a VC firm today?
(1:48:07) Nuno’s collection of 270+ phones
(1:53:16) Racing cars (and winning championships)

Referenced
Chamaeleon: https://www.chamaeleon.vc/
Tech Deciphered Podcast https://decipheredshow.com/
Say It With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/Say-Charts-Executives-Visual-Communication/dp/007136997X
How To Lie With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/How-Charts-Gerald-Everett-Jones/dp/1419651439
Redmagic Phone: https://redmagic.gg/
ASUS Rog phone: https://rog.asus.com/phones/rog-phone-model/

Follow Nuno
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ngpedro/

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

I just attended Allocate’s Beyond Summit in Deer Valley Utah. It was a peek into what the top VC's and LP’s are thinking about right now.

Allocate asked me to record an episode of the show, live from the conference.

So I asked everyone “What’s your hottest take on the VC market today?”

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episode

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Timestamps:
(1:22) Seed investing is dead (Tripp Jones, Uncork)
(5:56) Seed is not dead (Bryan Rosenblatt, Sandlot)
(13:19) Most consensus era of VC ever (Nate Williams, Union)
(18:02) Taking the Power Law Pill (Pratyush Buddiga, Susa Ventures)
(29:15) The 2nd-time founder premium is dead (Matt Cohen, Ripple Ventures)
(32:46) AI will crush intelligence labor (Clark Cheng, Merrimac)
(42:25) New deep tech investors will lose their shirts (Sunil Nagaraj, Ubiquity Ventures)
(46:39) ChatGPT for robotics is still 15 years away (Sungjoon Cho, Fortitude Ventures)
(52:07) The app layer ARR reckoning (Josh Christensen, Mercato)
(58:30) The AI bubble will pop in Q2/Q3 (Amias Gerety, QED)
(1:08:22) Most individuals do VC wrong (Jon Oberheide)
(1:15:25) Allocators have become too allocator-y (Dan Feder, University of Michigan)
(1:20:55) LP’s should value information, not just returns (Ben Ivey, Marshall Street)
(1:24:09) Upcoming litigation of Russian doll SPVs (Asher Siddiqui, Song United)
(1:30:13) Why retail needs private market access (Sarah Pinto Peyronel, Robinhood Ventures)

Referenced
https://beyondsummit.allocate.co/

Tripp Jones, Uncork Capital
Twitter: https://x.com/thistrippjones

Bryan Rosenblatt, Sandlot
Twitter: https://x.com/BRosenblatt4

Nate Williams, Union
Twitter: https://x.com/naywilliams

Pratyush Buddiga, Susa Ventures
Twitter: https://x.com/pratyushbuddiga

Matt Cohen, Ripple Ventures
Twitter: https://x.com/mattybcohen

Clark Cheng, Merrimac
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clark-cheng-cfa-frm-caia-a411535

Sunil Nagaraj, Ubiquity Ventures
Twitter: https://x.com/sunilnagaraj

Sungjoon Cho, Fortitude Ventures
Twitter: https://x.com/josungjoon

Josh Christensen, Mercato
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshjdmba/

Amias Gerety, QED
Twitter: https://x.com/amiasmg

Jon Oberheide
Twitter: https://x.com/jonoberheide

Dan Feder, Michigan
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danfeder

Ben Ivey, Marshall Street
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benivey

Asher Siddiqui, Song United
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ashersiddiqui

Sarah Pinto Peyronel, Robinhood Ventures
Twitter: https://x.com/SPintoPeyronel

*This podcast is produced by Allocate for informational and educational purposes only and is intended for institutional, accredited, and qualified investors. Nothing discussed constitutes an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase any security or advisory service, and nothing should be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice. Any offering will be made only pursuant to applicable confidential offering documents.
Views expressed by participants are their own and subject to change. Any discussion of target returns, projected outcomes, IRRs, MOICs, or other performance metrics is hypothetical and illustrative only and should not be relied upon as an indication of future performance.
Investments in private funds are speculative, illiquid, and involve substantial risk, including possible loss of the entire investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Certain guests may have financial or other interests in the opportunities discussed. Allocate Management Company, LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply any level of skill, training, or SEC endorsement. Please consult your own advisors before making any investment decision.*

Alfred Wallforss is the Co-founder of Listen Labs, the AI customer research company.
Companies like Microsoft use Listen to run AI-powered customer interviews, and Alfred talks about how they first landed them as a customer at a pitch competition.
We talk why startups should pursue enterprise customers early on, why 85% of survey answers are random clicks, how AI is changing the $140B market research industry, leveraging VC’s for customer intros, how to stand out when recruiting as a startup, and hiring for obsession.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episode
Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com
Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital
Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Timestamps:
(0:14) Listen: AI customer research tool
(7:30) Fraud is a big problem in customer research
(9:06) The $140B customer survey industry
(12:08) Why running customer surveys is so hard
(16:03) AGI will never replace humans
(18:25) Surveys vs interviews
(21:13) Importance of emotion in data collection
(22:54) Using AI interviews to get product feedback
(26:15) Building digital twins creates better data
(32:22) Outperforming generic AI tools
(34:17) Sweetgreen’s Max Protein Bowl
(36:09) Jevon’s Paradox in customer research
(40:37) Quantitative vs qualitative
(42:38) Landing Microsoft as an early customer
(44:50) Targeting enterprise customers from day 1
(48:05) Building a VC customer intro leaderboard
(51:53) Recruiting with billboard games
(57:20) Hiring for obsession
(1:02:07) Alfred’s favorite movies
(1:03:53) Listen’s custom agent harness
(1:06:24) Velocity Fellowship for Swedes moving to SF
(1:08:34) Growing up with entrepreneurial older brother
(1:09:46) No shoes in the office

Referenced
Try Listen: https://listenlabs.ai/
Careers at Listen: https://listenlabs.ai/careers
Sweetgreen protein bowls: https://listenlabs.ai/case-studies/sweetgreen
Toni Erdmann: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4048272/
Episode with Erik @ Modal: https://www.thespl.it/p/building-ai-native-infrastructure

Follow Alfred
Twitter: https://x.com/itsalfredw
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wahlforss

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Tomasz Tunguz is the Founder and General Partner of Theory Ventures.

We talk about today’s “all out sprint” in AI, Anthropic’s strategy, the three layers of AI business models, how AI compares to prior technologies, where to invest in AI today, and what Theory looks for in new investments.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episode

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Timestamps:
(0:42) The “all out sprint” in AI today
(1:40) Why GPU prices are up 116% in six weeks
(6:34) AI infra end-state: “We’ll over build”
(9:12) Tokenmaxxing, and why AI needs to get more efficient
(15:48) AI models will resemble pharma more than software
(19:52) Why Anthropic still trades at a discount
(25:42) Anthropic’s strategy: commoditize the compliments
(30:29) Why OpenClaw is so strategic for OpenAI
(34:08) The three layers of AI business models
(38:18) Where to invest in AI today
(45:49) Who will survive SaaSpocalypse?
(52:15) Comparing AI’s impact to historical technology cycles
(57:34) How new technology historically impacts jobs
(1:05:58) Where AI is underrated today
(1:10:41) How people are actually buying AI products
(1:14:06) Why Theory’s investing in ads, inference, and email
(1:16:24) 2026 IPO pipeline, how VC has changed over 20 years
(1:20:56) What Theory looks for in new investments
(1:22:32) Starting Theory Ventures in 2022
(1:25:39) Running a monte carlo analysis to determine portfolio construction
(1:27:54) Tomasz personal AI projects

Referenced
Theory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/
Tomasz Blog: https://tomtunguz.com/

Follow Tomasz
Twitter: https://x.com/ttunguz
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomasztunguz

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Ali Partovi is the Co-founder and CEO of Neo.

Neo started in 2017 as a network for the top college students. Neo is a “people-first” investor, a thesis it developed missing out on early investments in PayPal and Google at three employees.

Neo has since invested in the Seed rounds of Cursor and Kalshi, and Ali shares everything he’s learned about spotting outlier talent, how to hire the best people, how computer science is the best business education, and why the best entrepreneurs start young.

Special thanks to Hadi Partovi, Fuzzy Khosrowshahi, Alan Shusterman, and Claire Shorall for their help brainstorming topics for Ali.

Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episode

Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com

Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital

Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com

Timestamps:
(0:09) Neo’s two 10x funds
(2:19) Missing PayPal led to Neo
(9:32) Not investing in Google at 3 employees
(11:31) Backing Facebook despite the idea
(13:01) Starting Neo to help top college students
(17:21) How to identify outlier talent
(24:38) Neo’s coding test
(27:41) Bootstrapping the first cohort of Neo Scholars
(34:58) How Cognition President Russel Kaplan changed Neo forever
(39:21) Starting Neo after talking to Steph Curry
(46:42) Launching [Code.org](http://Code.org) to teach 20M kids to code
(59:38) Is coding still relevant in 2026?
(1:03:43) How to hire outlier talent
(1:07:25) Why you should aggressively apply for one job
(1:11:09) Neo Residency: $750k uncapped
(1:19:51) Growing up in Iran during the revolution
(1:26:03) Impact of the immigrant mentality
(1:29:15) Most entrepreneurial roots start very young
(1:39:18) Lessons investing in Cursor + Kalshi seed rounds
(1:50:27) Confession: a podcast about failure
(1:52:36) Fucking up a $50m deal by lying to Steve Jobs

Referenced
Neo: https://neo.com/
Neo Scholars Application: https://neo.com/scholars
Neo Residency: https://neo.com/residency
Code.org: https://code.org/
Lying to Steve Jobs: https://x.com/apartovi/status/1447251334814523392
Losing a deal with Yahoo: https://x.com/apartovi/status/1449856639331340289

Follow Ali
Twitter: https://x.com/apartovi
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/apartovi/

Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak

Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/