Coffee House Shots

This week James Heale and Tim Shipman share a byline to tell the story of Reform since the 2024 election, and where they are going. Nigel Farage reveals he is talking to potential Blue Labour defectors, shifting his leadership style and offering a ‘less is more’ approach on policy. Essex and its resident Tory big beasts – Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly and Priti Patel – are a major focus. Reform hopes to swallow the Tory vote come the 2029 election – ‘As long as Nigel is ahead of Badenoch,’ an adviser notes, ‘the Tory vote will disintegrate overnight.’
Also on the podcast, the Labour leadership contest (informally) started this week, with interventions from Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham. But are they right to put Labour members before the public?
Tim and James discuss.
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As Reform chips away at the Tory vote, the Conservatives face a stark choice – join forces with Nigel Farage or fight alone. James Heale, The Spectator’s deputy political editor, will be joined by Conservative peer Daniel Hannan, journalist and politician Paul Goodman, shadow cabinet member Victoria Atkins, and former Brexit secretary David Davis as they lock horns over what a Conservative–Reform pact might look like – and whether it should happen at all.
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In this special edition of Coffee House Shots, our political editor Tim Shipman is joined by historian, biographer and foreign policy adviser to four different prime ministers, John Bew. In his 7,000-word essay published in the New Statesman last week, John sets out the historical context which has contributed to the malaise and decline of the British state – and hypothesises that we are currently living in the ‘fourth great disruption’ to the political and economic order. He takes Tim through the previous three disruptions and the lessons that government needs to learn from them in order to stop the rot. Does the secret to forging a new place in the world order lie in fixing the machinery of government? Which figures from the past should we take inspiration from?
Produced by Megan McElroy.
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Angela Rayner has entered the chat. Last night she gave a speech to Labour members which many are reading as the soft launch of her leadership bid. She told the room that Labour needs to be more ‘bold’ – echoing Gordon Brown as she called for a more left-wing direction. She took aim specifically at Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms, describing them as ‘un-British’. Is she staging a coup? And is she the viable leader that Labour can rally around?
Also today, we had PMQs with lots more difficult questions on Mandelson and Iran – who came out on top?
Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and James Heale.
Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
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The Chancellor will deliver the annual Mais lecture today and is expected to focus on closer alignment with the EU, AI and improving Britain's economic geography ('levelling up' in all but name). While her comments on Europe might gain the most headlines, we're more curious about what she will say over AI – given the current geopolitical context. Given the energy requirements of AI, the Iran crisis has only further exposed the holes in Britain's energy policy – can Rachel Reeves convince Ed Miliband to adapt his policies? And is this about the Chancellor's political headroom as much as the economic?

Plus: President Zelensky is in town to sign a defence pact with the UK, while Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yusuf are expected to give their final speeches in the Scottish Parliament before standing down as MSPs. Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons join Patrick Gibbons to reflect on their legacies.

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.
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