Manifold

Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026.

Links:
Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijing
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72

Previous crossover episodes:

Weeks Where Decades Happen
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happen

AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-ai-china-tariffs-geopolitics-84

(00:00) - Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103

(02:10) - US-China Economic Tensions

(05:45) - Technology and Strategic Shifts

(08:48) - Trump's Geopolitical Strategy

(17:43) - Middle East Developments

(28:41) - US-China Competition and Taiwan

(33:44) - Venezuela and International Law

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond.
Links:

Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos:
https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078

My talk from Reproductive Frontiers 2025 in Berkeley:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n64rrRPtCa8

Previous episodes on frontier AI capabilities in math and theoretical physics
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theoretical-physics-with-generative-ai-101
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/ais-win-math-olympiad-gold-prof-lin-yang-ucla-97
Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits

(03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare

(08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF

(20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO

(31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge

(55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists.
Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”!
He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied to state-dependent modifications of quantum mechanics), work now accepted for publication in Physics Letters B after peer review. Remarkably, the main idea in the paper originated de novo from GPT-5.

Links:
X discussion - https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1996034522308026435
Companion paper: Theoretical Physics With Generative AI -  https://drive.google.com/file/d/16sxJuwsHoi-fvTFbri9Bu8B9bqA6lr1H/view
Physics paper - https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.15935 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0370269325008111
Related discussion of AI and theoretical physics with Prof. Nirmalya Kajuri (IIT) and Prof. Jonathan Oppenheim (UCL) - https://youtu.be/BRuDd3l0e3k
Related video: AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – Manifold #97 - https://youtu.be/8JeRCqNg7Rc

Chapter markers:

(00:00) - Intro: AI discussion with specialized physics at the end

(03:40) - The current AI landscape for science: frontier models, Co-Scientist, and recent math breakthroughs

(11:01) - Why models help and why they fail: errors, deep confabulation, and the research risk

(15:54) - The Generator–Verifier workflow: how chaining model inference suppresses mistakes

(23:30) - Project origin: testing models on Hsu’s older nonlinear QM/QFT work

(30:35) - The “GPT-5 moment”: Tomonaga–Schwinger angle appears and produces the key equation

(40:35) - Wild goose chases & a practical heuristic: axiomatic QFT detour; Generator-Verifier convergence

(51:44) - Referee-driven test case: Kaplan–Rajendran model, past-lightcone geometry, and verification

(55:55) - Tooling & outlook: automation prototype, chaining into “supermodels,” where this is headed

(59:39) - Physics slides (advanced): TS integrability, microcausality, and why nonlinearity threatens locality

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has broken
important stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussain
reports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeli
intelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of other
countries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, very
elite level.”

Links:
Drop Site News series on Epstein and Israel
https://www.dropsitenews.com/s/epstein-and-israel

Former Israeli spy Ari Ben Menashe on Jeffrey Epstein
https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1994046737040712144

(01:08) - Introduction

(02:20) - The Mission of Drop Site News

(06:00) - Epstein Emails

(15:28) - Epstein connections and elite power

(35:48) - Epstein and intel agencies

(39:54) - Ari Ben Menashe and the Iran Contra Affair

(42:21) - Media Censorship and Political Implications

(47:33) - The Future of Epstein Investigations

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy, and society in China, most of which have since come true.

Jian and Steve discuss the origins of the industrial party movement (discussed in an earlier episode with Kyle Chan), which culminated in the "industrial maximalism" view of development adopted by the PRC government. They also discuss the development of supply chains in China, and the role that US sanctions had in accelerating the Chinese semiconductor industry.
Kyle Chan episode:
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/kyle-chan-on-the-future-of-us-china-competition-94

Chinese industrial maximalism: 
https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:49) - Jian Gaokao score was 23rd in all of Fujian = Econ at Beida, not Genomics!

(05:21) - China's Industrial Policy and Innovation

(24:19) - Domestic supply chain strategy; How Huawei became a national champion due to US sanctions

(34:13) - Venture Capital in China

(36:13) - Hard Tech Investments

(37:40) - Regulations of Tech Giants

(44:28) - Future of China Technological Development

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.