LessWrong posts by zvi

The Revolution of Rising Requirements has many elements. The most onerous are the supervisory requirements on children. They have become, as Kelsey Piper recently documented, completely, utterly insane, to the point where: A third of people, both parents and non-parents, responded in a survey that it is not appropriate to leave a 13 year old at home for an hour or two, as opposed to when we used to be 11 year olds babysitting for other neighborhood kids. A third of people said in that same survey that if a 10-year-old is allowed to play alone in the park, there needs to be an investigation by CPS. Whereas I think that if you don’t allow your 10-year-old to play alone in a park, that is a much better (although still quite bad) potential reason for a CPS investigation. This is not an idle threat, per the common statistic that around 35% of American families get investigated by CPS. Even if you are confident that will ultimately turn out fine, and given the vagaries and insanities one can never fully be sure, the process is already the punishment. As Kelsey Piper says [...] ---Outline:(01:47) We Don't Let Kids Be Kids(03:42) Let Your Children Play(05:36) The Algorithm of Fear(07:33) The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself(11:48) No Means No(14:20) Child Abduction Is Either Custody Disputes Or Government Intervention(17:29) Stranger Danger Danger(20:39) The Before Times(21:33) Could It Be... Murder?(22:30) The Long Road Home(22:47) Either Bored Or Happy(23:53) All Eyes on Me(27:03) Screens From The Past(28:50) Medicalization(31:02) Television(32:14) Suspiciously Large Effect Size --- First published: December 26th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dkbE54ESRBW69P3cY/childhood-and-education-16-letting-kids-be-kids --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Claude Opus 4.5 did so well on the METR task length graph they’re going to need longer tasks, and we still haven’t scored Gemini 3 Pro or GPT-5.2-Codex. Oh, also there's a GPT-5.2-Codex. At week's end we did finally get at least a little of a Christmas break. It was nice. Also nice was that New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed the RAISE Act, giving New York its own version of SB 53. The final version was not what we were hoping it would be, but it still is helpful on the margin. Various people gave their 2026 predictions. Let's put it this way: Buckle up. Table of Contents Language Models Offer Mundane Utility. AI suggests doing the minimum. Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility. Gemini 3 doesn’t believe in itself. Huh, Upgrades. ChatGPT gets some personality knobs to turn. On Your Marks. PostTrainBench shows AIs below human baseline but improving. Claude Opus 4.5 Joins The METR Graph. Expectations were exceeded. Sufficiently Advanced Intelligence. You’re good enough, you’re smart enough. Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon. Don’t worry, the UK PM's got this. Fun With Media Generation. Slop [...] ---Outline:(00:53) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility(02:15) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility(02:55) Huh, Upgrades(03:21) On Your Marks(05:15) Claude Opus 4.5 Joins The METR Graph(12:41) Sufficiently Advanced Intelligence(15:09) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon(18:12) Fun With Media Generation(22:33) You Drive Me Crazy(25:29) They Took Our Jobs(28:45) The Art of the Jailbreak(28:56) Get Involved(29:12) Introducing(32:24) In Other AI News(33:46) Show Me the Money(34:44) Quiet Speculations(38:59) Whistling In The Dark(40:27) Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble(42:20) Americans Really Dislike AI(48:30) The Quest for Sane Regulations(52:32) Chip City(55:55) The Week in Audio(56:45) Rhetorical Innovation(01:00:53) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult(01:02:58) Mom, Owain Evans Is Turning The Models Evil Again(01:06:10) Messages From Janusworld(01:15:22) The Lighter Side --- First published: December 25th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GHW2rhYtnYgEn3tuq/ai-148-christmas-break --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Now that I am tracking all the movies I watch via Letterboxd, it seems worthwhile to go over the results at the end of the year, and look for lessons, patterns and highlights. Last year: Zvi's 2024 In Movies. The Ratings Scale You can find all my ratings and reviews on Letterboxd. I do revise from time to time, either on rewatch or changing my mind. I encourage you to follow me there. Letterboxd ratings go from 0.5-5. The scale is trying to measure several things at once. 5: Masterpiece. All-time great film. Will rewatch multiple times. See this film. 4.5: Excellent. Life is meaningfully enriched. Want to rewatch. Probably see this film. 4: Great. Cut above. Very happy I saw. Happy to rewatch. If interested, see this film. 3.5: Very Good. Actively happy I saw. Added value to my life. A worthwhile time. 3: Good. Happy that I saw it, but wouldn’t be a serious mistake to miss it. 2.5: Okay. Watching this was a small mistake. 2: Bad. I immediately regret this decision. Kind of a waste. 1.5: Very bad. If you caused this to [...] ---Outline:(00:24) The Ratings Scale(02:35) The Five Component Model of Movie Ratings(04:10) The Numbers(04:29) Movies Have Decreasing Marginal Returns in Practice(05:24) Very Briefly on the Top Picks and Whether You Should See Them(06:47) Other Notes to Self to Remember (Reprise from 2024)(08:15) The Year of Living Disagreeably(11:05) I Hate Spoilers With the Fire of a Thousand Suns(11:26) You Son Of A Bitch, I'm In(12:36) Theaters Continue To Be Awesome(13:11) Strong Opinions, Strongly Held: I Didn't Like It(19:43) Strong Opinions, Strongly Held: I Did Like It(21:47) Award Show Dreams(22:28) On To 2026 --- First published: December 24th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J4nhntwkoxhk3XJDm/zvi-s-2025-in-movies --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Several years ago Zvi Mowshowitz founded Balsa Research, a tiny nonprofit research organization currently focused on quantifying the impact of the Jones Act on the American economy, and working towards viable reform proposals. While changing century-old policy is not going to be easy, we continue to see many places where there is neglected groundwork that we’re well positioned to do, and we are improving at doing it with another year of practice under our belts. We’re looking to raise $200,000 to support our work this giving season, though $50,000 would be sufficient to keep the lights on, and we think we are also well positioned to do more with more funding. Funds raised this round will support Balsa's policy advocacy, either in Jones Act and shipping or potentially in other planned cause areas of housing reform and NEPA reform if there is capacity to significantly expand. Donate here to fund our mainline policy work. One additional possibility for Balsa, that would be funded entirely separately if it did happen, is for Zvi Mowshowitz to use Balsa as a piece of philanthropic infrastructure to help guide new philanthropic money coming online in 2026 if there [...] ---Outline:(01:34) What Balsa Got Up to in 2025(05:42) A quick glance at our budget(06:24) Balsa in 2026, and Our Ask(07:38) Complete the Jones Act policy binder(08:12) Receive and publicize findings from the two funded economic studies(08:33) Fund at least one high-quality study from the labor RFA(09:09) Continue monitoring Section 301 and SHIPS Act developments, contributing input where it seems high-leverage(09:56) What Additional Funding Enables --- First published: December 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cE8B9jDoAq9Agtt2K/keeping-up-against-the-joneses-balsa-s-2025-fundraiser --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Balsa Research is a tiny nonprofit research organization currently focused on quantifying the impact of the Jones Act on the American economy, and working towards viable reform proposals. While changing century-old policy is not going to be easy, we continue to see many places where there is neglected groundwork that we’re well positioned to do, and we are improving at doing it with another year of practice under our belts. We’re looking to raise $200,000 to support our work this giving season, though $50,000 would be sufficient to keep the lights on, and we think we are also well positioned to do more with more funding. Donations will support Balsa's policy advocacy, either in Jones Act and maritime policy reform or potentially in other planned cause areas (housing reform and NEPA reform) if there is capacity to significantly expand. Donate here to fund our mainline policy work. One additional possibility for Balsa, which would be funded entirely separately if it did happen, is for Zvi Mowshowitz to use Balsa as a piece of philanthropic infrastructure to help guide new philanthropic money coming online in 2026 if there is demand. Contact us ([email protected]) if you would like to be involved [...] ---Outline:(01:34) What Balsa Did in 2025(05:45) A quick glance at our budget(06:27) Balsa in 2026, and Our Ask(07:41) Complete the Jones Act policy binder(08:16) Receive and publicize findings from the two funded economic studies(08:37) Fund at least one high-quality study from the labor RFA(09:13) Continue monitoring Section 301 and SHIPS Act developments, contributing input where it seems high-leverage(10:00) What Additional Funding Enables --- First published: December 22nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HyfkJuAqN2WLGKi4E/keeping-up-against-the-joneses-balsa-s-2025-fundraising --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.