LessWrong posts by zvi

There are two sides of developments in fertility. How bad is it? What is causing the massive, catastrophic declines in fertility? What can we do to stabilize and reverse these trends to a sustainable level? Today I’m going to focus on news about what is happening and why, and next time I’ll ask what we’ve learned since last check-in about we could perhaps do about it. One could consider all this a supplement to my sequence on The Revolution of Rising Expectations, and The Revolution of Rising Requirements. That's the central dynamic. Household Composition What is happening? A chart worth looking at every so often. Timing Michael Arouet: No way. WTF happened in 1971? This is United States data: The replies include a bunch of other graphs that also go in bad directions starting in 1971-73. Developmental Idealism Lyman Stone, in his first Substack post, lays the blame for fertility drops in non-Western countries primarily on drops in desire for children, via individuals choosing Developmental Idealism. Lyman Stone: Five Basic Arguments for Understanding Fertility: Data has to be read “vertically” (longitudinally), not [...] ---Outline:(00:46) Household Composition(01:06) Timing(01:37) Developmental Idealism(04:47) Pessimism(05:51) Baby Boom(06:53) Paperwork(08:24) Car Seats As Contraception(11:14) You Can't Afford It(12:23) Yes The Problem Is Often Money(12:57) Housework(15:13) Greedy Careers(18:24) The Appeal of Child-Free(19:30) Motivation(22:06) Grandparents(25:26) Expectations of Impossibility(28:04) Isolation(30:00) Decoupling(31:45) South Korea(39:20) World(39:54) Various Places in Trouble(40:51) China(44:25) Russia(44:39) Europe(45:34) America(46:43) Kazakhstan(47:10) Israel(48:56) Consequences(49:49) Unfounded Optimism(50:56) History(51:44) Implications --- First published: January 2nd, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SSQDuWDsbXH3kujPb/fertility-roundup-5-causation --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

The Rationalist Project was our last best hope that we might not try to build it. It failed. But in the year of the Coding Agent, it became something greater: our last, best hope – for everyone not dying. This is what 2026 looks like. The place is Lighthaven. Table of Contents Language Models Offer Mundane Utility. 2026 is an age of wonders. Claude Code. The age of humans writing code may be coming to an end. Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility. Your dog's dead, Jimmy. Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon. Keep your nonsense simple. Fun With Media Generation. YouTube facing less AI slop than I’d expect. You Drive Me Crazy. Another lawsuit against OpenAI. This one is a murder. They Took Our Jobs. Yet another round of ‘oh but comparative advantage.’ Doctor Doctor. Yes a lot of people still want a human doctor, on principle. Jevons Paradox Strikes Again. It holds until it doesn’t. Unprompted Attention. Concepts, not prompts. The Art of the Jailbreak. Love, Pliny. Get Involved. CAISI wants an intern, OpenAI hiring a head of preparedness. Introducing. [...] ---Outline:(00:30) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility(01:34) Claude Code(08:49) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility(10:04) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon(12:17) Fun With Media Generation(12:47) You Drive Me Crazy(13:39) They Took Our Jobs(17:46) Doctor Doctor(18:46) Jevons Paradox Strikes Again(20:52) Unprompted Attention(22:42) The Art of the Jailbreak(23:22) Get Involved(24:09) Introducing(24:30) In Other AI News(25:56) Show Me the Money(26:14) Quiet Speculations(29:38) People Really Do Not Like AI(32:23) Americans Remain Optimistic About AI?(33:40) Thank You, Next(36:36) The Quest for Sane Regulations(39:42) Chip City(42:54) Rhetorical Innovation(43:29) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult(44:25) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone(44:45) The Lighter Side --- First published: January 1st, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qp7kEfd2MnGRR8evZ/ai-149-3 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

It's that time. It's been a hell of a year. At the start we barely had reasoning models. Now we have Claude Code and Opus 4.5. I don’t code. Yet now I cause code to exist whenever something about a website annoys me, or when I get that programmer's realization that there's something I am planning on doing at least three times. Because why not? The progress has simultaneously been mind bogglingly impressive and fast. But a lot of people don’t see it that way, because progress has been incremental, and because we were reasonably expecting to often get even more than this. The public conversation and debate, even more than before, was full of false narratives and active attempts to make the situation worse. The same goes for attempts to shape Federal policy towards AI, and OpenAI's conversion into a for-profit. It's been, as they say, one battle after another, with many wins, many setbacks and a lot of things in between. This includes the key developments in AI, and also other blog posts from the year that I consider memorable looking back. This is only our corner of the world's [...] ---Outline:(01:26) January(03:50) February(06:58) March(08:15) April(09:24) May(11:06) June(12:02) July(13:04) August(15:23) September(15:50) October(18:39) November(20:12) December(21:39) Questions For Next Season --- First published: December 31st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2hFiaDmYr3KuuWNDS/2025-year-in-review --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Ultimately, it comes down to one question. Are you in? For you, and for them. You’re Single Because They Got The Ick The Ick, the ultimate red flag, makes perfect sense and is all about likelihood ratios. Koenfucius: The ‘ick’ is a colloquial term for a feeling of disgust triggered by a specific—typically trivial—behaviour from a romantic partner, often leading to the relationship's demise. New research explores why some are more prone to getting it than others. Robin Hanson: “Women also experienced the ick more frequently, with 75% having had the ick compared to 57% of men … Those with a higher tendency for disgust … [&] grandiose narcissism was linked to stronger ick reactions, as was holding partners to exceptionally high standards.” Paul Graham: About 30% of Seinfeld episodes were about this. One gets The Ick because a small act is evidence of one's general nature. The right type of person would never do [X], ideally never want to do [X], and at minimum would have learned not to do [X]. Often this is because they would know this is indicative of attribute [Y]. Indeed, if they should be aware that [X] [...] ---Outline:(00:18) You're Single Because They Got The Ick(02:53) You Are Still Single Because You Are Inventing Red Flags(05:10) You're Still Single Because You Demand The Same Generic Things(06:51) You're Single Because Everyone Is Too Picky(08:46) You're Single And They Will Never Tell You Why(10:19) You're Single Because You Won't Tell Them The Problem(12:12) You're Not Single But The Clock Is Ticking(13:21) You're Single Because of Your Bodycount(15:11) You're Single Because You Failed To Read The Signs --- First published: December 30th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6hhPbovwRWem4fvwr/dating-roundup-9-signals-and-selection --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Here's to everyone having a great 2026 in all ways, so I figured what better way to end the year than with a little practical advice. Like everything else, dating is a skill. Practice makes perfect. It helps to combine it with outside analysis, to help you on your quest to Just Do Things. You’re Single Because You Lack Reps A common theme in these roundups is that the best thing you can do as a young man, to get better at dating and set yourself up for success, is to get out there and engage in deliberate practice. Cartoons Hate Her: Today I wrote about some of the worst dating advice that young men get. Namely, the advice to delay dating or relationships until they’ve “built themselves,” usually into their 30s. Getting dating experience- even when it clearly doesn’t matter- builds social skills and confidence. It's not something you want to deliberately defer. Dating *is* working on yourself. Zac Hill: Hard true and also generally applicable. Niko Canner told me a variant of this when I was about to work at Bridgewater to ‘acquire skills’: “what job are you acquiring skills for?” [...] ---Outline:(00:30) You're Single Because You Lack Reps(03:00) You're Single And Didn't Even Shoot Your Shot(04:34) You're Single Because You Didn't Ask To Hold Her Hand(07:56) You're Single Because You're Afraid People Will Mock You Online(13:19) You're Single Because You Didn't Confirm Your Date(19:06) You're Single Because You Didn't Have Your Big Moment At The Prom(20:51) You're Single Because Board Games Came Between You(22:26) You're Single Because You Can't Dance(23:11) You're Single And Should Try Punching(24:03) You're Single Because You Don't Send Out Receptive Energy(25:55) You're Single Because You're A Depressed Comedian(26:46) You're Single Because You Didn't Hand It To Her(27:28) You're Single And Need The Right Reward Function(28:11) You're Single So Focus On The Basics(29:48) You're Not Single Anymore(31:11) You're Single Because You Don't Just Do Things --- First published: December 29th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fvFgpvyKwRKqjtfiz/dating-roundup-8-tactics --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.