LessWrong posts by zvi

Anthropic is warning us. Its modified S-1 now says that ‘we may imminently meet our Responsible Scaling Policy's definition of ‘dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.’

That is a highly scary sentence to have a company put in its S-1. This could happen. For now I appreciate the relative quiet. Perhaps many were focused the election. I’m sure the quiet will not last long.

We have a new biggest crypto hack, as Binance got taken for billions of dollars.

The big debate of the week was covered in Scott Alexander's Against SURA Seems Deeply Confused.

OpenAI updates its Model Spec. It's one for diehards only but yes I did cover this.

Table of Contents


Language Models Offer Mundane Utility. Rewrite all your legacy code.

Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility. Not if you can’t use it.

Huh, Upgrades. Claude renames its tiers, with some rules changes.

On Your Marks. Materials science.

Get My Agent On The Line. Don’t upload it to the secure DoD network.

Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon. The battle over deepfakes was entirely lost.

Copyright Confrontation. Recreating someone else's exact game is bad, actually.
[...] ---
Outline:
(00:57) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility
(01:47) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility
(03:18) Huh, Upgrades
(03:45) On Your Marks
(05:03) Get My Agent On The Line
(06:54) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon
(07:57) Copyright Confrontation
(08:26) Cyber Lack of Security
(09:45) The Hackening
(17:10) A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer
(20:08) They Took Our Jobs
(20:43) Get Involved
(21:42) Introducing
(22:48) In Other AI News
(24:03) Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI) (1)
(26:57) Recursive Self-Improvement (2)
(32:15) Show Me the Money
(33:17) Quiet Speculations
(36:06) The Quest for Sane Regulations
(38:30) Chip City
(41:07) The Week in Audio
(41:56) People Just Say Things
(43:24) Against Against Sura
(44:00) Rhetorical Innovation
(46:33) [Artificial Intelligence]
(47:10) The OpenAI Foundation
(48:07) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult
(53:38) Massive Fraudulent Distillation
(55:16) Cooperative Alignment
(57:10) The Lighter Side
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First published:

November 5th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrQGzNcicMThuGEEM/ai-193-progress-may-dramatically-accelerate

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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The Model Spec is potentially OpenAI's most important document. It outlines what they aspire for the model to do, and how it should think.

I’ve already covered a previous version in depth, so my strategy this time is to look at the diff. I had a Google Doc created for this purpose, and will be working from there.

A bunch of things get moved around or reworded, often piecemeal. There are a lot of line edits, most of which are improvements. I’m focusing on what looks new and important.

My main new critique is that many of the new examples do not carve reality at its joints, instead having overdetermined answers, and fail to teach the model or reader what the Spec wants them to do in actually difficult cases.

Overall I see the new Model Spec as philosophically and practically similar to the old Model Spec. That is not a terrible place to be, as the old Model Spec was a solid document with many strong details. It also means this is a highly ‘optional’ post for those who do not have cause to dig into such weeds.

Table of Contents


Five Values.

Meet the [...]
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Outline:
(01:13) Five Values
(02:29) Meet the New Spec
(03:33) New Risk Taxonomy
(04:28) The Letter and the Spirit
(05:06) Your Funeral
(07:22) Context Clues
(09:20) Preserve User Control Over User Control
(10:05) Sycophancy
(11:47) Lies My User Told Me
(12:38) Impact Function
(15:32) Levels of Friction
(17:01) Do Not Lie
(22:16) Pick a Side, We're at War
(26:19) Strengthening Agency
(29:03) Decision Theory
(29:45) Do Good Things Not Bad Things
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First published:

November 3rd, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ABEQbEabK6kcSRrNq/openai-updates-its-model-spec

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

If you are helping build something that might kill everyone, maybe stop doing that.

Ideally, when you do stop, tell everyone else to also stop building it.

That is certainly the obvious, first-level thing to do. You need a damn good reason to decide that no, actually you should keep building the thing that might kill everyone.

Scott Alexander is worried too many people are insisting upon this too loudly. He comes out against a strategy focused on getting people to stop. I disagree. I think many of the claims, arguments and rhetoric in Scott's post are quite poor by the standards that Scott Alexander would apply to himself.

Scott clearly continues to support advocacy for a global pause, or what he calls Plan A. His objection is to those advocating primarily or exclusively for SURA, which stands for ‘stop unilaterally and raise awareness.’ The practical differences here are smaller than they may at first appear.

This post first lays out my understanding of Scott Alexander's core claims, then gives my core reactions to those claims, then goes over various questions in detail along with gathering the resulting discussions.

Table of Contents

[...] ---
Outline:
(01:20) Scott Alexander's Core Claims
(05:06) My High Level Responses To Scott's Core Claims
(08:08) Briefly on Alignment
(10:11) Probabilities and How They Work
(13:25) Building a Thing That Might Kill Everyone is Deontologically Evil
(20:38) People Quitting Major Labs While Raising Alarms Obviously Works
(24:39) On AI Forecasting
(27:31) Advancing Capabilities Burns Timeline
(29:34) But China
(33:23) Ethical People Can Disagree With You
(34:45) There Are More Than Two Outcomes
(38:01) Efforts Are Complementary, Not Mutually Exclusive
(40:23) If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
(41:55) Vaniver is Not Convinced
(46:19) There Is No Consensus That We Should Exclusively Focus on Plan A
(56:01) It's Not the Incentives, It's You
(58:08) Anthropic Is Not Optimally Pursuing These Plans
(01:04:00) Against Against Sura
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:

November 2nd, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ziMP83D2JYWRQ5jtu/scott-alexander-s-against-sura-seems-deeply-confused

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Nikole Hannah-Jones wrote a brave self-critical piece in The New York Times, centrally about how she intentionally sent her daughter to a well-funded but failing school, PS 307, in the hopes of using voice to improve it, and how that utterly failed her daughter and failed to impact the school.

Ultimately her daughter recovers, but we see a completely broken system that is unresponsive to internal voice, and until now she made no attempt to blow the whistle and utilize her professional position to do so.

The whole incident illustrates not only how messed up so many of our schools are despite abundant funding, it also raises the question of what the schools are even for. If her daughter can fully recover from severe deficits and be getting As and Bs at a challenging school within a year, what are the first eight years of school for? How much of the schools, grades and tests are fake? Can we somehow do better?

Table of Contents


New York City PS 307.

Nikole Knew And Had Exit Ramps.

PS 307 Is Fraudulent And Indifferent.

Moving In Unison.

A Good School.

What [...]
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Outline:
(01:05) New York City PS 307
(02:51) Nikole Knew And Had Exit Ramps
(04:50) PS 307 Is Fraudulent And Indifferent
(06:37) Moving In Unison
(07:03) A Good School
(08:11) What Were Elementary and Middle School Even For?
(09:56) The Project Was Ideological
(14:01) Null Hypothesis Watch
(15:58) School Spending
(18:06) Costs Are Not Benefits
(19:08) Fire The Bad Teachers And Hire And Retain Better Ones
(19:18) Teachers Unions Are Not Beating The Rumors
(21:11) Death Spiral
(22:07) Another One Bites The Dust
(24:13) Where To?
(24:59) Public Schools Cost A Lot Of Money
(27:04) Schools Can Fail In Many Ways
(28:55) Results
(30:25) Grades
(30:42) They Nerfed AP Tests
(31:28) What Happens Without Academic Standards
(37:10) The Two Big Scandals
(38:58) Alpha School
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First published:

October 30th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2STd6qthbJS6fqxBr/childhood-and-education-22-voice-without-exit

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Anthropic filed its S-1 this week to prepare for its IPO. They still have to fill a lot of the numbers including the share price. That still left a lot to be learned, including how the messaging to investors differs from their other rhetoric, and exactly how their corporate control is structured. Anthropic remains a frustrating company, doing a variety of things that often seem in tension with each other.

Google is claiming to be fully back, with the announcement of a new model Gemini 4 Carbon that tops the new AA v5 benchmark index. It looks to be a large leap over Argon only two weeks later. No, you cannot use it. Google fails marketing forever, so they give us the announcement and then weeks later you might be able to enter some queries. That largely invalidates my look at the Argon model and safety cards, but it can at least form a basis for looking at Carbon as well.

Many eyes remain on The Hackening, as additional things get hacked. So far most of the important hacks have been by read teamers and white hats, so there has not been major damage. We are playing [...]
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Outline:
(01:53) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility
(04:06) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility
(04:40) New Math
(07:25) Huh, Upgrades
(09:06) Artificial Analysis v5
(17:27) On Your Marks
(18:34) Gemini 4 Argon Was a Good Model But Not Fully Frontier
(20:27) Gemini Carbon: Is Google Back?
(21:56) Get My Agent On The Line
(24:15) Spy Versus Spy
(25:40) The Hackening
(35:13) Slack Off
(43:20) Help Peer
(49:14) Fun With Media Generation
(50:09) Copyright Confrontation
(50:28) You're Fired
(55:50) Verify the Software
(57:06) They Took Our Jobs
(57:13) Get Involved
(59:19) Introducing
(59:40) In Other AI News
(01:00:20) Show Me the Money
(01:00:46) Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
(01:01:27) Quiet Speculations
(01:06:58) The Quest for Sane Regulations
(01:07:23) Chip City
(01:10:40) The Week in Audio
(01:10:59) People Just Say Things
(01:14:22) Rhetorical Innovation
(01:18:43) [Artificial Intelligence]
(01:19:34) Misaligned! (At Alibaba)
(01:28:04) Stop It
(01:29:57) METR Red Teams OpenAI Internal Agent Monitoring
(01:33:13) Massive Fraudulent Distillation
(01:34:04) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult
(01:37:56) OpenAI Attempts to Secure Its Frontier Model Training Environment
(01:46:36) The American People Really Hate AI
(01:47:03) The Lighter Side
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First published:

October 29th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mBDkupZa3NagfLW86/ai-192-anthropic-is-going-public

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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