LessWrong posts by zvi

Things are relatively quiet on the AI front, so I figured it's time to check in on some other things that have been going on, including various developments at the FDA.

Table of Contents


FDA Reformandum Est.

FDA Delenda Est.

IN MICE.

Doctor, Doctor.

Trust The Process.

Cancer Screening.

Autism Everywhere All At Once.

Other Mental Problems Everywhere All At Once.

Source Data Verification.

External Review Board.

Walk It Off.

An Unhealthy Weight Can Be Worse Than You Realize.

Our GLP-1 Price Cheap.

Right To Die Should Include Right To Try.

FDA Reformandum Est

In lieu of plan A, how about plan B?

Senator Bill Cassidy released a new report on modernizing the FDA. Alex Tabarrok approves, which means it's probably good.

The FDA chief has an even better idea.

Matthew Herper: FDA chief Marty Makary says ‘everything should be over the counter’ unless drug is unsafe or addictive [or requires monitoring].

Annika Kim Constantino: Makary said the FDA is looking at “basic, safe” prescription drugs like nausea medications and vaginal estrogen, which is used to [...]
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Outline:
(00:19) FDA Reformandum Est
(01:17) FDA Delenda Est
(14:11) IN MICE
(15:09) Doctor, Doctor
(15:38) Trust The Process
(16:51) Cancer Screening
(18:18) Autism Everywhere All At Once
(19:25) Other Mental Problems Everywhere All At Once
(21:26) Source Data Verification
(26:18) External Review Board
(26:57) Walk It Off
(28:16) An Unhealthy Weight Can Be Worse Than You Realize
(29:04) Our GLP-1 Price Cheap
(30:55) Right To Die Should Include Right To Try
---

First published:

March 17th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ypnYfPmn6FqAyxCpJ/medical-roundup-7

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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It is that time again.

After events surrounding Anthropic and the Department of War, I plan on taking full advantage of whatever lulls I can get. Things are only going to move faster over time.

That means a higher bar for coverage, and it means potentially skipping more days, or using those days for short posts that either spin off fun little things or that embody concepts I want to refer back to over time.

In the meantime, here's everything that doesn’t go anywhere else, and that does not want to fully stand on its own.

Table of Contents


Sauce For The Goose.

Age Verification Has Severe Issues.

Bad News.

A Pattern Language.

Good Advice.

While I Cannot Condone This.

Locking In.

Subscription Price Dynamics Are Weird.

Good News, Everyone.

For Your Entertainment.

Slay The Spire II.

Gamers Gonna Game Game Game Game Game.

The Gathering Is Magical.

Sports Go Sports.

Government Working.

Not Great, Britain.

Variously Effective Altruism.

The Road To Hell.

Jones Act Watch.

Patrick McKenzie Periodically.

The Lighter Side.
[...] ---
Outline:
(00:43) Sauce For The Goose
(01:44) Age Verification Has Severe Issues
(02:43) Bad News
(03:24) A Pattern Language
(04:32) Good Advice
(09:40) While I Cannot Condone This
(13:36) Locking In
(15:10) Subscription Price Dynamics Are Weird
(17:34) Good News, Everyone
(20:28) For Your Entertainment
(21:25) Slay The Spire II
(24:36) Gamers Gonna Game Game Game Game Game
(27:35) The Gathering Is Magical
(32:43) Sports Go Sports
(34:38) Government Working
(41:00) Not Great, Britain
(42:46) Variously Effective Altruism
(44:22) The Road To Hell
(45:28) Jones Act Watch
(47:30) Patrick McKenzie Periodically
(57:32) The Lighter Side
---

First published:

March 16th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y8c4kh6fjkWu7Auxp/monthly-roundup-40-march-2026

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The conflict between Anthropic and the Department of War has now moved to the courts, where Anthropic has challenged the official supply chain risk designation as well as the order to remove it from systems across the government, claiming retaliation for protected speech. It will take a bit to work its way through the courts.

Anthropic has the principles of law on its side, a maximally strong set of facts and absurdly strong amicus briefs. If Anthropic loses this case, there will be far reaching consequences for our freedoms.

Let us hope this remains in the courts and is allowed to play out there, and then ultimately that negotiations can resume and the parties can at least agree on a smooth transition to alternative service providers. If DoW wants an otherwise full deal more than it wants the right to use Claude to monitor Americans and analyze their data, a full deal is possible as well, but if they demand full ‘all lawful use,’ all trust has been lost or they are or always were out to hurt Anthropic, then there is no deal or ZOPA.

That has overshadowed what would normally be the main event [...]
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Outline:
(01:48) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility
(03:46) Language Models Dont Offer Mundane Utility
(07:11) Language Models Break Your Vital Internet Infrastructure
(08:02) Huh, Upgrades
(09:29) On Your Marks
(15:13) Choose Your Fighter
(15:40) Get My Agent On The Line
(16:55) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon
(19:08) A Young Ladys Illustrated Primer
(19:27) You Drive Me Crazy
(19:47) They Took Our Jobs
(23:10) Get Involved
(24:58) Introducing
(26:03) The Anthropic Institute
(28:13) In Other AI News
(29:14) The Rise of Claude
(33:31) Trouble At OpenAI
(35:21) Show Me the Money
(36:36) Thanks For The Memos
(37:36) A Contract Is A Contract Is A Contract
(40:09) Level of Friction
(41:10) Quiet Speculations
(41:46) Quickly, Theres No Time
(43:14) Apology Tour
(43:59) Well See You In Court
(50:41) Jawboning
(54:02) Executive Order
(54:53) The Acute Crisis Passes
(56:48) Others Cover This
(57:28) Dwarkesh Patel Gives Mixed Thoughts
(01:02:57) This Means A Special Military Operation
(01:03:25) Bernie Sanders Is Worried and Curious About AI
(01:06:10) The Quest for Survival
(01:09:25) The Quest For No Regulations Whatsoever
(01:10:44) Chip City
(01:11:07) The Week in Audio
(01:12:52) Rhetorical Innovation
(01:23:08) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult
(01:28:57) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone
(01:31:03) Other People Are Not As Worried About AI Killing Everyone
(01:32:52) The Lighter Side
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First published:

March 12th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DnrjKZTZwHGjdDB4u/ai-159-see-you-in-court

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Benchmarks have never been less useful for telling us which models are best.

They are good for giving a general sense of the landscape. They definitely paint a picture. But if you’re comparing top models, like GPT-5.4 against Opus 4.6 against Gemini 3.1 Pro, you have to use the models, talk to the models, get reports from those who have and form a gestalt. The reports will contract each other and you have to work through that. There's no other way.

Thus, I try to gather and sort a reasonably comprehensive set of reactions, so you can browse the sections that make you most curious.

The gestalt is that GPT-5.4 is a very good model, sir. It's a substantial upgrade from GPT-5.2, and also from 5.3-Codex, and it puts OpenAI back in the game, whereas I felt like Opus 4.6 dominated OpenAI's previous offerings for all but narrow uses.

Each lab's models vary and things change over time, but they tend to have consistent strengths, weaknesses and personalities. From what I’ve seen this is very much an OpenAI model. It's highly capable, and it is especially seen as a big improvement by the whisperers and [...]
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Outline:
(01:42) The Big Take
(04:24) The Official Pitch
(08:43) Other Peoples Benchmarks
(12:44) The System Card
(17:22) Preparedness Framework
(19:15) Fun Experiments
(19:41) Early Poll Results
(21:48) Positive Reactions
(34:47) Vibe Coders Only
(37:26) Fill Out Your Roster
(37:51) Intent Wins
(40:41) Personality Clash
(45:44) Model Relations Department
(49:27) Stylistic Differences
(50:02) Some Will Always Be Unimpressed
(53:57) The Lighter Side
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First published:

March 11th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sKCYLEN5EYLuokDft/gpt-5-4-is-a-substantial-upgrade

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:
GPT" at 9.4%, "Claude -> Claude" at 37.9%, "GPT -> GPT" at 13.6%, and "Other / See Results" at 39.1%. The poll has 683 votes with 1 day left." style="max-width: 100%;" /> GPT" at 6%, "Claude -> Claude" at 38.2%, "GPT -> GPT" at 15.3%, and "Other / See Results" at 40.6%. The poll received 419 votes and shows final results." style="max-width: 100%;" />Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

It feels good to get back to some of the fun stuff.

The comments here can double as a place for GPT-5.4 reactions, in addition to my Twitter thread. I hope to get that review out soon.

Almost all of this will be a summary of agentic coding developments, after a note.

Table of Contents


The Virtue of Silence (Unrelated Update).

Agentic Coding Offers Mundane Utility.

Agentic Coding Doesn’t Offer Mundane Utility.

Huh, Upgrades.

Our Price Cheap.

Quickly, There's No Time.

A Particular Set Of Skills.

Next Level Coding.

Dual Wielding.

They Took Our Jobs.

You Need To Relax Sometimes.

Levels of Friction.

Danger, Will Robinson.

Snagged By The Claw.

The Meta Clause.

If They Wanted To.

The Famous Mister Claw.

Claw Your Way To The Top.

Claw Your Way Out.

A Chinese Claw.

Hackathon.

Introducing Agent Teams.

Cowork Is A Gateway Drug.

Dangerously Evade Permissions.

Skilling Up.

Modern Working.

Measuring Autonomy.

I Don’t Even See The Code.

Scratchpads Are Magic.

It's Coming.

[...]
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Outline:
(00:29) The Virtue of Silence (Unrelated Update)
(02:32) Agentic Coding Offers Mundane Utility
(08:27) Agentic Coding Doesnt Offer Mundane Utility
(09:17) Huh, Upgrades
(11:31) Our Price Cheap
(13:36) Quickly, Theres No Time
(21:08) A Particular Set Of Skills
(21:48) Next Level Coding
(22:54) Dual Wielding
(23:49) They Took Our Jobs
(24:28) You Need To Relax Sometimes
(27:05) Levels of Friction
(28:30) Danger, Will Robinson
(30:22) Snagged By The Claw
(34:20) The Meta Clause
(36:50) If They Wanted To
(37:55) The Famous Mister Claw
(39:14) Claw Your Way To The Top
(40:58) Claw Your Way Out
(44:05) A Chinese Claw
(46:46) Hackathon
(47:15) Introducing Agent Teams
(52:40) Cowork Is A Gateway Drug
(53:34) Dangerously Evade Permissions
(54:32) Skilling Up
(55:53) Modern Working
(56:22) Measuring Autonomy
(58:25) I Dont Even See The Code
(01:01:53) Scratchpads Are Magic
(01:04:11) Its Coming
(01:08:22) The Grep Tax
(01:09:54) Beware Claude Mania
(01:10:36) The Lighter Side
(01:12:05) In Other Agent News
(01:12:13) The Lighter Side
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First published:

March 9th, 2026


Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rNes65r9TKegdLowb/claude-code-claude-cowork-and-codex-5

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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