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The Hoon

Bernard Hickey
The Hoon
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  • Mini-Hoon: Andrea Black on our sickening workforce
    I spoke to Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS) Economist Andrea Black this week about a report she’s produced on the economic, social & financial costs of the worsening health of our workforce. The 52-page report, titled Managed decline: The Health of New Zealand 2011 to 2024, details a worsening in the health of the working-age population, in particular around mental health and obesity.Andrea used Treasury cost-benefit models to work out the potential costs to society and the economy of up to $10.6 billion per year through lost hours worked, falling productivity, presenteeism and lost taxes because of the sickening health of the workforce. She estimated that a continued worsening at the same rate would increase that loss by an extra $3.3 billion by 2035/36.We talked about:* How the self-rated health of New Zealanders has declined significantly.* 80% of health determinants were outside the health system.* How 22,000 more people are out of work due to health issues.* Presenteeism contributes significantly to lost productivity.* Mental health issues had a substantial economic impact.* Social determinants like housing and income were crucial for health.* Health impacts not only individuals but also families and communities.These tables charts in the report tell the story:Chapters00:00 Introduction to Health Trends in New Zealand03:07 Self-Rated Health: A Decline in Perception06:05 Economic Implications of Health Deterioration09:05 Social Determinants of Health and Community ImpactSubscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Early Bird and Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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  • The Weekly Hoon: Climate health threats; The Gaza peace deal; Gold & bubbles; A social housing initiative
    The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics and climate change.This week’s special guest was Israel Cooper from The Home Foundation.We talked about:* The economy, the Reserve Bank’s rate cut and global financial bubbles.* This week’s annual report on the marine environment by the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ, including how the seas around Aotearoa are warming 34% faster than the rest of the world and that $180 billion of residential property is exposed to floods and slips. We also talked about this Op-Ed by James Renwick et al for The Public Health Communications Centre on the health dangers of climate change.* The Gaza peace plan and the controversies here about New Zealand’s Gaza stance;* The housing crisis and how to solve it (no biggie).The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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  • Mini-Hoon: Jarrod Kerr on how low the OCR may have to go
    Last night I spoke with Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr last night after the RBNZ’s 50 basis point cut in the OCR. He says the cash rate may need to go under 2% to get the economy going again. Here’s his full note on the decision.We talked about:* How interest rates need to be below neutral to encourage growth.* The housing market’s stagnation was concerning for overall economic health.* Whether communication from the Reserve Bank has led to confusion among businesses. Jarrod says it has.* A new governor at the Reserve Bank may bring better leadership.* The housing market is expected to recover slowly over the next few years.* Investors are waiting for mortgage rates to align with rental yields.* Whether Debt to income controls are currently a major constraint on the housing market. Jarrod says not.* Wholesale rates have fallen, indicating a positive market reaction.* The depreciation of the Kiwi dollar may boost tourism and exports.Chapters00:00Reserve Bank’s Decision on Cash Rate02:57Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on the Economy06:07Housing Market Dynamics and Economic Growth08:52Market Reactions and Future ProjectionsSubscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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  • Mini-Hoon: Natalie Allen on housing choices
    Last night I spoke with The Urban Advisory’s Managing Director Dr Natalie Allen, who has released the first results of a new longitudinal survey on the experiences and aspirations around housing of renters and owners.The New Zealand Housing Survey is a nationwide study designed by The Urban Advisory and analysed by the University of Auckland. It was conducted with 2,587 adults aged 16 and over between August 2024 and February 2025 and found:* Nearly 75% of renters expressed dissatisfaction with the housing options available to them;* 53% of non-homeowners said they didn’t own a home because they ‘can’t afford to buy anywhere’;* While 75% of homeowners “strongly agree” that their home is stable and secure, only 30% of renters feel the same; and,* Most renters expect their next move will be by choice and 47% plan to move in the next year, however, nearly 20% anticipate being forced to move.Allen says the survey showed the unmet demand for affordable homes in apartments, townhouses and other ‘co-housing’ situations in locations close to work, schools and other amenities.“These statistics highlight the stark disparities in housing experiences across Aotearoa. For some, a lack of housing mobility means they’re stuck in place, even when they want or need to move. “For many others, constant relocation is the norm, driven by the absence of affordable, suitable options. This instability has far-reaching consequences, directly affecting educational attendance, academic outcomes, and economic productivity.“There’s a big gap between what people want and what sort of housing is being delivered. The gap is between the public housing sector and the private market, and to bridge it will require flexible support and more housing options. “Until the gap is understood, which is the purpose of this ongoing research, and addressed, New Zealanders won’t have the range of housing options they need to thrive.” The Urban Advisory’s Managing Director Dr Natalie AllenChapters00:00 Introduction to the New Zealand Housing Survey02:50 Understanding Renters’ Perspectives05:53 Housing Preferences and Trends09:02 Densification and Community NeedsHere is the summary of the first year’s results and the full results in PDF form. Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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  • Mini-Hoon: Ganesh Nana on a failing 'strategy'
    Last night I spoke with economist Ganesh R Ahirao, who has written another letter with 19 other economists to PM Christopher Luxon and Minister of Finance Nicola Willis, calling on them to abandon their fiscally stringent approach to the economy.Here’s the letter:We discussed:* the Government’s sole focus on cutting interest rates as the way to boost the economy;* the need for investment in infrastructure and public services rather than solely focusing on reducing debt; and,* the disconnect between financial management and economic growth.We talked about how:* Austerity measures have historically failed to solve economic problems;* Government debt is not the primary issue; external debt is more critical;* The private sector has not stepped in to fill gaps in the economy;* Economic resilience requires investment in infrastructure and services;* Reducing government spending may exacerbate economic downturns;* The current fiscal policy lacks a clear rationale for its approach;* Saving for a rainy day should include economic preparedness, not just financial savings;Chapters:00:00 Economic Concerns and Government Response09:50Rethinking Fiscal Policy and Economic ResilienceSubscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe
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About The Hoon

Bernard Hickey's discussions with Peter Bale and guests about the political economy in Aotearoa-NZ and in geo-politics, including issues around housing affordability, climate change inaction and child poverty reduction. thekaka.substack.com
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