Predictions are not facts. Yet we're betting our jobs, our democracies, and our children's attention spans on them.
Oxford philosopher Carissa Vรฉliz, author of Prophecy and Privacy Is Power, joins Mark Fielding and Jeremy Gilbertson on Thinking On Paper to dismantle the most lucrative con of the AI era: the self-fulfilling prophecy.
When Sam Altman tells you that anyone in 2035 will command "the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025"โฆ when Dario Amodei warns AI will wipe out 50% of entry-level white-collar jobsโฆ when Jensen Huang announces the IT department is now an HR department for AI agents... you are not hearing forecasts. You are hearing sales pitches dressed as inevitability.
Repeat them often enough, and HR really does start firing humans and buying OpenAI subscriptions. Klarna fired 700 people on the AI hype. A year later, they were hiring 700 people back.
This is the oldest trick in the book. From the Oracle of Delphi to Rasputin to Polymarket and Kalshi, and Carissa shows you how to see through it.
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CHAPTERSย ย
(00:00) Intro
(01:00) What is the good life?ย
(02:00) Why knowing yourself matters more than strategyย
(04:44) The analog world vs the digital worldย
(06:45) How prophecies exploit our need for securityย
(08:47) Why ancient Rome banned predicting the emperor's deathย
(10:11) The illusion of safety that AI sells usย
(12:27) When predictions work, and when they don'tย
(15:00) Altman, Amodei, Huang: predictions or sales pitches?ย
(28:29) How to resist prophecies as a busy personย
(29:53) Prediction markets, Polymarket, and democracyย
(31:49) TikTok, algorithms, and the Molly Russell caseย
(36:08) "Engagement algorithms are cocaine in food"ย
(40:54) Self-fulfilling prophecies as the perfect crimeย
(43:44) Why comedy is the enemy of prophecyย
(46:59) What Seinfeld teaches us about predictive algorithmsย
(52:16) Karikรณ and the Nobel Prize we almost missedย
(53:40) Increase your serendipityย
(56:13) Why Epicurus beats the Stoics