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How AI Could Reorient American Politics
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comThe full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player by following the directions here.I was at a conference earlier this week giving a talk about politics. These things can be kind of fun. I get up on a stage, do my song and dance, and show folks a bunch of charts.As I was getting into the elevator, one of the attendees stepped in beside me and I asked him how he was enjoying the conference. He sighed and said, “Well, everything is about AI. Even the sessions that are supposed to be about other things end up being about AI.”His comment struck me because that’s what so many topics can feel like these days, whether it’s the workplace and economy, social media and entertainment, our own homes and vehicles, or even matchmaking and intimacy — and of course politics and geopolitics.Some of the political debates over AI have faded into the background as the Trump administration’s laissez-faire approach to regulation has set the tone in Washington and Democrats have had little to no power to challenge it, if they wanted to. But it’s probably a good bet that political debates over the role of Artificial Intelligence in society won’t remain in the background for long.Recently AI stocks have been in pullback mode and chatter about a bubble has reemerged. “Is it a blip, a dip, a pullback or the beginning of the end?” reads one headline. And lately, hardly a day goes by without another company announcing a reduction in its white collar job force.Polling also suggests Americans are somewhere between skeptical and pessimistic about the future of AI. They see it as doing more harm than good when it comes to people’s ability to think creatively, have meaningful relationships with each other, and make difficult decisions. And importantly, this is not an area where Americans are highly polarized along party lines either.The combination of those two things: the possibility of a crisis or displacement in which AI is seen as central and the lack of clear party divisions means that the new technology may be in a unique position to reshape politics.That is the topic of today’s episode with David Byler, public opinion researcher and VP at National Research Group. We also get into questions about the use of AI in polling and a “Good Data, Bad Data, or Not Data?” question from a listener.
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32:47
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32:47
Is The MAGA Coalition Coming Apart?
When President Trump became the first Republican in 20 years to win the national popular vote in 2024, one Republican pollster was in a position to say: “I told you so.”Patrick Ruffini, the co-founder of Echelon Insights, had written a book the year prior titled, “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.”He wrote, “The Republicans used to be seen as the party of wealthy elites and the Democrats the party of blue collar workers—and now that’s being turned upside down. Because of this, the ‘demography is destiny’ ideas of eternal Democratic majorities never materialized. And now it’s Republicans who are on offense with voting blocs who represent a decisive majority of the country.”He went on to say, “Contrary to the media myths, the old divisions that separated Americans politically and in other ways by race and ethnicity are gradually fading. This is what’s making Republicans competitive in areas they never dreamed of winning before.”This was hard to deny in 2024. Republicans made decisive gains with voters of color and young voters, with eye-popping rightward shifts in places like Florida, Texas and the urban Northeast.But if Trump’s already souring polling this year hadn’t been reason for pause, this fall’s elections certainly were. As we discussed on last week’s podcast, in New Jersey, there appeared to be something of a snap back amongst Hispanic and young voters to coalitions resembling the 2020 election.In light of that, I invited Patrick Ruffini on the podcast to talk about the ever-shifting American political coalitions. He joined me to discuss his book on the forbearer to this podcast, but this was his first time on GD POLITICS. We also discussed his work at Echelon Insights highlighting the diversity of opinion that sits below the polarized red/blue surface of American politics. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe
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44:25
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44:25
A 2025 Election Post-Mortem
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comThe full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player by following the directions here.The news cycle is quickly moving beyond last week’s elections. There’s the end of the shutdown, the Jeffrey Epstein emails, new candidates jumping into the 2026 primaries, and the release of Robyn’s first single in seven years (that one is for the gays). Pretty soon much of our electoral attention will be focused on the midterms.Before we say goodbye to the 2025 elections, I wanted to do a post-mortem with the advantage of more data and less sleep deprivation. So, today we are focusing on some of the fundamental questions of the election, in particular: who, where, and why. The demographic and geographic breakdown of the vote and the issues driving voters.We compare what we saw in 2025 to past elections, discuss what is means for 2026, and answer listener questions about the results. At the end we also get to some of the other things going on in the world, namely those Jeffrey Epstein emails and the raging battle over what kind of candidates the parties should be running if they want to win at the midterms.With me for our 2025 election post-mortem is Lakshya Jain, head of political data at The Argument, Linley Sanders, polls and surveys reporter at the Associated Press, and Lenny Bronner, data scientist at the Washington Post.
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17:08
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17:08
Who Won The Government Shutdown?
It appears that the longest government shutdown in American history is coming to an end.On Sunday night, eight members of the Senate Democratic Caucus joined Republicans in advancing a deal that would fund the government through January. It would also fund programs related to agriculture, military construction, and the legislative branch for most of 2026.What Democrats got in return is a promise to vote on the enhanced Obamacare subsidies in December, a reversal of government layoffs made during the shutdown, continued funding of the Government Accountability Office, and maintaining the office’s ability to sue the Trump administration.All eight of the senators who voted with Republicans are not up for reelection in 2026 and Democratic leadership criticized the deal, along with plenty of other Democratic lawmakers. So, in the end, which party came out on top?That’s the story we begin with and we also dig into how Washington is reacting to last week’s elections and the latest news from the Supreme Court. With me to do it is Gabe Fleisher, author of the Wake Up To Politics newsletter and friend of the podcast.P.S. We now have GD merch! You can find hats, tees, and totes here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe
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53:16
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53:16
Democrats Had A Great Night
Democrats swept the bigs races across the country on Tuesday night and many of the not-so-big races as well. They over-performed their polls in Virginia and New Jersey and Zohran Mamdani may be on track to secure an outright majority in the mayoral election in New York City. The victory for Proposition 50 in California was also resounding.In this late-night edition of the GD POLITICS podcast, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, and Lenny Bronner joined me (after a five hour livestream, no less) to break down the results of the evening and what they do or don’t portend for future races. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe
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33:48
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33:48