Raw Politics

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: what's all this talk about an election overhang? Plus the Greens, the quiet giant of this campaign

Will the campaign for an overhang in Parliament – basically enlarging the House under MMP to inflate one side's chances of success – save the incumbent centre-right coalition?

Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses the campaign for an overhang, what it means, and why National is resisting this offer of help.

Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder, political editor Laura Walters and co-editor Tim Murphy as we discuss the advantages and perils of voting for someone other than your gut preference, for second-guessing the system.

Then the panel analyses the largely unremarked-upon rise of the Green Party, hitting 15 percent or more in seven of the past 10 public opinion polls and on the verge of achieving the highest representation of any party in the history of MMP.

In our third topic we look back on the great gang photo scandal – who it hurt, and why (so far) the three parties caught on camera have emerged unscathed in the polls.

Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:

Tim: Derek Cheng in the Herald ($) on Why the latest poll is hopeful for Labour, and is Luxon’s tactic working?

Laura: Our own Marc Daalder's deep analysis piece on the maths of overhangs.

Marc: Toby Manhire of The Spinoff on Parliament literally running out of chairs

Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: One last chance to hear the wisdom and biting analysis of the great Sam Sachdeva as he signs off after a decade with Newsroom

With 16 days until polling day, can the major parties and their minor partners put Opportunity back into its bottle and jam the cork shut tight?

Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses National's efforts to talk Opportunity's polling numbers down, New Zealand First's dismissal of it as a lamb among coalition negotiating wolves, and the Greens' admonishment of it as a Trojan horse rolling in to back the right. 

The remaining fortnight of the campaign will be dominated by Opportunity's ability to survive the assaults of opponents and to keep hope alive for its backers who got it over the 5 percent threshold but might not be able to keep it there.

The panel also examines what National leader Christopher Luxon has grudgingly conceded is a "crisis" in the health system – and the political repercussions that hospital staffing issues, delayed care and overloaded emergency departments might have on voter choices. 

We review the six broadcast debates between party leaders, picking the best and worst-performed politicians and best moderators. 

Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:  

Tim: Our own Raw Politics chief Marc Daalder's fine Campaign Observer column imagining who might be in a Labour-Greens-Opportunity Cabinet post-election

Marc: Joel MacManus’ at-times brutal column on the final leaders’ debate for the Spinoff.

Sam: Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan’s piece on Labour’s enrolment drive and its fears about turnout

Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: a major star in a minor debate, Labour’s rising star, and old political stars sharing the campaign limelight

New Zealanders watched a remarkable political moment this week, with the emergence of Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong as a stand out in the televised debate between minor party leaders.Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses Wong’s moment and the flip side, the diminishment of veteran NZ First leader Winston Peters, in what was a smart and testing debate format. Wong’s countering of an attack from the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick, and joking request to other panelists for Christopher Luxon’s mobile number, will stay long in the memory.

While the ‘minors’ debated, Labour and National soldiered on, bruised but unbowed by their shared 28 percent result in the latest 1 News-Verian poll. Labour continues to roll out consumer protections and cost of living measures, in a concerted effort utilising a rising star.

The panel also considers if the emergence of former party leaders John Key, Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark into the campaign is a positive or negative for the major party leaders struggling to get out of their own shadows, let alone those of former PMs who won and won big.

Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:

Tim: Joel McManus’ interview and campaign profile for the Spinoff on Chlöe Swarbrick

Marc: Sam Sachdeva’s Newsroom scoop on Winston Peters actions over the NZ abstention at the UN on future pandemics

Sam: Farah Hancock’s deep dive for RNZ on the multimillion-dollar hustle to fund election campaigns.

Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: can Luxon find his debate A-game, fiscal holes swallowing everyone, and relief at NZ First's party list

Does it matter who's the better talker in a leaders' debate? Does even one vote move into the correct column on November 7? 

Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses not only the aftermath of Chris Hipkins' anointed 'win' in the first big TV debate with Christopher Luxon but also how as winner and loser they should approach round 2, next Wednesday.

Join senior political reporter Marc Daalder and associate editor Sam Sachdeva in Wellington and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland as they try to sift fact from fiction in the great political game of parties accusing one another of covering up fiscal holes. One of Murphy's takes, he thinks, puts him at risk of being cancelled by the Wellington beltway. 

The panel assesses the New Zealand First party list, with newcomers elevated to winnable spots and loyal time servers relegated into likely but not guaranteed positions. Does leader Winston Peters front them individually when they're on the path to demotion, or does he leave it to the "party"?  

Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:  

Tim: Hayden Donnell’s ‘Walking with Winston’ in the Spinoff, including this perceptive line "despite his prodigious charisma, Peters is finding it hard to talk to normal people".

Marc: Glenn McConnell’s scoop in Stuff on the crackdown on MP benefits

Sam: Cass Mason's report for Newsroom on ex minister Michael Wood's search for redemption in Mt Roskill 

Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.

This week on the Raw Politics podcast: voters get their last look at the books, will strategic voting help or harm National, plus Opportunity’s bottom lines

The big reveal is over and the economy might well get a lot better a lot more quickly than thought, but might it be too late for voters doing it tough?

Today, the Raw Politics panel discusses what we can read into the pre-election economic and fiscal update. Its current numbers are positive but its near future risks and worries are not, and unlikely to pierce the electoral gloom before November 7.

Join associate editor Sam Sachdeva and political editor Laura Walters at Parliament and Newsroom co-editor Tim Murphy in Auckland as we ask if Labour is about to run smack, bang into a difficult fiscal reality and if its promises could be unaffordable.

The panel also analyses calls for people on the right to vote strategically – for National in the electorate vote and for Act or New Zealand First for the party vote – to theoretically enlarge the total size of Parliament and ensure the centre right wins more than half of it.

Our third topic is the Opportunity Party and its five bottom lines announced this week. Its leader Qiulae Wong left off its two biggest policy planks, a universal basic income and land tax, but the panel thinks that’s understandable; there’s always a need to eat the electoral elephant one bite at a time.

Finally, we offer recommendations for you to read, watch or listen to over your weekend:

Tim: A column we ran here on Newsroom, with public health expert Dr Boyd Swinburn assessing NZ First’s health agenda as “more vibes and vitamins than actual evidence”

Laura: Parallel Newsroom analysis on the National and Labour Party campaign launch events, from Sam and Tim. National’s taxing campaign to hold the throne & Labour launches with a Wahs-like vibe and a student surprise

Sam: Adam Pearse’s pitch-perfect NZ Herald dispatch from the campaign trail in Auckland, complete with Simeon Brown getting stranded at a pedestrian crossing and Christopher Luxon asking a young boy to shake his mullet.

Raw Politics will be available wherever you get your podcasts at the end of each week, and to watch on YouTube.