THE DAILY BLAST with Greg Sargent

Charlie Cook has been doing election forecasting since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 reelection campaign. The founder of the Cook Political Report, an institution in D.C., he recently retired from his life’s work and now writes an informative newsletter called “Charlie Cook Politics.” And he’s been declaring that he hasn’t ever seen an election quite like this one. So, now that Election Day is finally upon us, we talked to Cook about all of it. He explains why he largely believes those astounding New York Times polls showing Democrats leading in seven key Senate races, how many Senate and House seats he expects them to win, and why the election will be partly decided by disaffected GOP voters. We also discuss how Trump’s unpopularity is making this midterm so unique, probe Cook’s concept of a “red undertow” in this election, and dig into whether Democrats have a new opportunity to repair relations with rural and small-town America. Cook also details why he expects the GOP to get an “ass-whupping.”

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Donald Trump erupted in a deranged rant at a reporter who dared to ask why he’d cancelled several of his rallies (which he then reinstated). Trump sputtered at being pressed on his fitness and viciously insulted the reporter’s appearance. “You are disgusting,” Trump snapped. “You look like hell.” This comes as Republicans are leaking word that his rallies hurt more than help in swing areas, meaning he’s totally toxic in non-deep-red America. Meanwhile, other Republicans are letting it be known that they’re looking ahead to a post-Trump world, with some bracing for Trump to blame them if they lose big. Still others are leaking word that the election could be “brutal.” That’s all pretty embarrassing given his frequent claim his rallies are saving them. We talked to Salon’s Amanda Marcotte about why Republicans seem to think his rallies have lost their juice. We also discuss what his ebbing powers portend for a post-Trump GOP, why the Senate is still on a knife’s edge, and how MAGA seems disoriented these days in the culture wars over gender.

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Donald Trump is in a dark mood about the midterms, reports The New York Times in an epic piece. Numerous administration insiders confide that he’s raging at naysayers and negative press. And they’re also leaking that he’s “increasingly cloistered” with “acolytes” like Natalie Harp, as the Times puts it, adding this: "As the elections approach, Mr. Trump is feasting on a media diet of fawning press coverage, disparaging clips about his perceived enemies, and helpings of flattering photos and 'A.I. slop,' as one official put it." That extraordinary passage shows how his aides are placating his anger. Yet new CNN polls show Democrats with leads in the key Senate races that will determine control. So we talked to political scientist Tom Schaller, author of a good piece for the Public Notice Substack on MAGA culture. We discuss whether those CNN polls are right, why Trump is convinced his influence over GOP voters will save the party, how a big Democratic night could break Trump-MAGA cultural power, and how that could allow Democrats to expand their coalition in coming years.

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After Vivek Ramaswamy ran that vile ad attacking Amy Acton in the Ohio gubernatorial race, Donald Trump aggressively defended it. That sent out a command to MAGA to get behind the ad. But now Republicans just leaked an internal poll to Axios showing that the ad is backfiring in humiliating fashion: It is making voters more likely to pick Acton over Ramaswamy rather than less. On top of that, Republicans fear this could hurt the party in the Ohio Senate race, too. That’s striking, because if Democrats win that contest, they’re a lot more likely to win the Senate. We talked to New Republic senior editor Alex Shephard, author of a good piece on the ad fiasco. We discuss how the backlash to the ad caught Trump-MAGA off guard, how this saga shows Trumpian politics to be running out of gas, and why the Senate map looks very promising for Democrats.

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In a remarkable move, Fox News just shifted numerous House races toward Democrats. Fox finds them pulling even or favored in really Trumpy places like Kentucky’s 6th district and North Carolina’s 11th district. Fox also shifted the Ohio Senate race to “Lean Democratic.” In both cases Fox cited recent polling—including its own—as the justification. These bombshell incursions into deep red territory made Trump’s tirade at a Texas rally Tuesday look truly delusional. Trump bizarrely suggested his Iran war is a stupendous success that’s making our country “an absolute fortune.” He even weirdly implied his juvenile changing of geographic names—like “Lake America” and the “Gulf of America”—shows genuine American success and dominance. Trump really believes these things have broad appeal! We talked to Michael Cohen, who wrote well on the ongoing GOP retreat for his Truth and Consequences Substack. We discuss how these tirades explain the GOP’s struggles, the deeper reasons Democrats are able to contest such red territory, and what to expect in the final stretch.

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