THE DAILY BLAST with Greg Sargent

Officials have leaked word to The Washington Post that they believe Iran can survive Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for three to four months without experiencing severe economic pain. Also, Iran has kept far more of its missiles and drones than previously known. Those are surely his worst screw-ups yet, given that he’s repeatedly insisted both that the regime is in terminal collapse and that Iran's military has been obliterated. This comes as The Wall Street Journal reports that his advisers are increasingly unnerved by the political price Republicans will pay over the closed strait. Those are related: The new revelations suggest the war could go on longer than expected, which is exactly what his advisers fear will worsen the GOP’s political mess. We talked to New Republic staff writer Tim Noah, who’s been writing well about Trump’s failures. We discuss why the war’s political fallout could last many months, how Trump voters are facing a perfect storm of disastrous policies, and what to expect in the midterms. 

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Donald Trump has been raging at Pope Leo’s criticism of the Iran war for weeks, and he just unleashed his most vile attack yet. Trump accused the Pope of “endangering a lot of Catholics” by advocating for peace. Yet a new Washington Post poll finds that Trump is losing this battle very badly. Large majorities react negatively to Trump’s claims about the Pope, and even more strikingly, big majorities approve of the Pope’s message of peace, even though Trump is bombarding America with relentless lies and propaganda about both the Pope and the war. We talked to scholar-of-religion Sarah Posner, who writes for Talking Points Memo and hosts the Reign of Error podcast. We discuss why this polling is encouraging in non-obvious ways, why there’s a schism between white Evangelicals and Catholics over Trump, how MAGA encourages Trump to imagine himself fighting a spiritual war against the Pope, and why that’s a political disaster for him. 

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Donald Trump hasn’t thought this one through. Politico reports that Republicans are grappling with rising “anxiety” about the midterms. A key reason: Trump’s obsession with his ballroom and other pet projects is muddying the GOP economic message. That’s bad enough. Worse, Republicans just agreed to seek $1 billion in taxpayer money for the ballroom. Though this is allegedly for security, vulnerable Republicans will hate having to defend this. It’s not just that they themselves are lamenting that the project is distracting from their message. It’s also that the ballroom is already deeply unpopular and they’re now tied more tightly to it. We talked to political scientist Tom Schaller, author of a good piece on Trump’s “vanity presidency.” He explains why the ballroom is so deadly for the GOP, how Trump is creating a uniquely “personalist” form of presidential rule, and why Trump’s megalomania actually matters to the voters who will help decide the midterms. 

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Last week, the Supreme Court gutted protections against racial gerrymandering, and Donald Trump is already urging Republicans to capitalize on it. We recently wrote that Trump has no idea what this will unleash, and that’s the topic of today’s episode. Indeed, Trump unleashed a Truth Social rant on Monday urging GOP state legislatures to maximize the gerrymandering, insisting this would net an additional 20 congressional seats in the midterms. In short, Trump didn’t bother concealing that this corrupt scheme is only about holding power amid cratering public support—which absolutely requires Democrats to respond. We talked to Max Flugrath of the voting rights group Fair Fight Action. We discuss how Democrats can undertake retaliatory redistrictings of their own, what the roadmap ahead for this looks like, and why it’s absolutely possible for Democrats to neutralize the GOP advantage. 
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Donald Trump has declared the war “terminated,” but he’s still rejecting Iran’s peace proposals while again threatening it with massive war crimes. And in an interview, Trump declared that he would never have approved an offer that was made to Iran by his negotiator, Steve Witkoff. This is a damning admission: He seemed to blurt out that he has no idea what his own representatives are offering—showing deep disengagement from the details of the talks—while demonstrating that anything his negotiators offer should not be believed. Meanwhile, Republicans are beginning to break with Trump: Politico reports that he “could soon face far more resistance.” We talked to MS NOW’s Steve Benen. He explains why Trump’s admission was so self-incriminating, why it reveals something much bigger about our crisis, why we may see more GOP defections soon, and what to look for next. 

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