The Munk Debates Podcast

Rudyard and Janice begin today’s show with news that the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East and the signal this is sending to Iran and the region. With Tehran facing a blockade and struggling to earn hard currency, the U.S. calculation points to escalation after the midterms. What could a major Democratic victory in the midterms mean for Trump’s ability to pursue military action? And could another impeachment actually make Trump more aggressive and less constrained?

In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Janice turn to Israel’s upcoming elections and the electoral prospects of the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs. Both face the prospect of minority governments, leaving Arab parties as potential kingmakers. Could Israel end up with another hung parliament, with Bibi at its head and figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich continuing to play a role in government?

For many centrist and liberal Israelis, this represents a nightmare scenario and proof that this election is existential: if the Netanyahu bloc prevails, Israel’s ability to remain a liberal democracy will cease to exist.
Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What can we expect from a make-or-break federal budget delivered in the middle of a trade war? Rudyard and Andrew look at the growing appetite in the business community for broad tax reform—and ask whether now is the moment for Canada to make itself as competitive as possible for investment. If the government wants to deliver meaningful tax cuts, they argue, it will need to tackle spending, including business subsidies, so that companies make investment decisions based on economics rather than government incentives. And with Carney’s government far ahead in the polls and a “wolf” named Trump at the door, is there any better time for the government to spend its political capital on bold economic reform?

Given the government’s retreat from climate commitments, rollback of the capital-gains tax increase, support for pipeline building and moves on immigration reform—is this really a Liberal government? Andrew argues that it is much easier for a Liberal government to do conservative things than for a Conservative government to do conservative things. With Carney enjoying extraordinary freedom of movement, almost akin to a wartime situation, he is taking full advantage of it. But where does that leave the Conservatives?
Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Prime Minister Mark Carney says he studied the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada in an hour-long interview with The New York Times. Meanwhile, politicians across Canada—from Doug Ford to Carney and David Eby—are enjoying a surge in popularity thanks to their “elbows up” approach to Trump. But is it time to call out this rhetoric as unhelpful—and potentially an impediment to finding a way for our two countries to work through this challenge? Rudyard and Janice agree: this is a trade dispute, not a war, and it is irresponsible for our leaders to suggest otherwise. Canadians should stop worrying about the prospect of war and focus instead on resolving the dispute.
Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Parliament opened yesterday with the PM determined to keep his momentum going: a labour reform bill and a major liberalization of project permitting, including for pipelines. What happened to the Trudeau-era Liberals now getting behind Carney’s more conservative agenda? Are we witnessing the beginnings of a broader Canadian realignment, with the Liberals making breakthroughs in Saskatchewan and Alberta? And what is the risk of a spring federal election designed to capitalize on Carney’s current momentum and secure a large majority?

Trump’s threats and the trade war have rallied Canadians around the Prime Minister and narrowed the space for criticism of his government. How open are Canadians right now to criticism of Carney’s approach? Andrew argues that when a country is facing an external threat, voters are less interested in the usual cut-and-thrust of partisan politics. The problem for Pierre Poilievre is that this is the political style he knows best. For now, his best strategy may be to hunker down, weather the current environment and build a stronger position for the moment when—and if—the bloom comes off the rose for Carney and the Liberals.
Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump says he is weighing whether to "annihilate" Iran next week. Is this another empty threat? We have reached a point where it is increasingly difficult to know how much weight to put behind his threats. The bond markets are beginning to speak, inflation is rising, and U.S. military capabilities are under strain. Trump pays attention to all three. The constraints on both sides are far tighter than they were nine months ago. So why continue with maximalist rhetoric that risks eroding American credibility and deterrence?

This week also saw Mark Carney and Ursula von der Leyen signal a much closer relationship between Canada and Europe, including the possibility of Canada becoming the EU’s first associate member. What does that actually mean? And why pursue this partnership when the world’s growth and dynamism are increasingly shifting toward Asia and the Indo-Pacific?

In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Janice turn to AI and a growing chorus of warnings from the industry’s own leaders, who are calling for stronger safeguards to limit the potential damage if AI systems break out and cause serious disruption to the systems that underpin our everyday life. How much weight should we put behind the argument that regulation and inspection could handicap American AI development and allow China to pull ahead?

Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.