The Munk Debates Podcast

The Trump administration finds itself in a trap. They can't declare victory and go home unless the Iranians agree to conclude this war, and the Iranians at this point have no incentive to strike a deal. Trump and the American public don't have the stomach for a long war, and thus Iran can win by not losing. How should Canada respond to Trump's provocations? Andrew believes there is a madman in the White House who wants to impose his will on us in various ways. The government in Ottawa needs to be planning for the various ways we will be facing highly unconventional tactics from this U.S. government. And if things really break down after the midterms, and America descends further down the path to dictatorship, there will be knockoff effects to neighbouring countries that Canada would be wise to prepare for.

Rudyard and Janice believe we have entered into a critcial moment in this war and it is playing out in the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict is now about energy: who controls the flow of energy and who can better withstand the pain of higher energy prices. We are going to see a turning point this week; if neither side is willing to back down, the only outcome in this story is escalation. Meanwhile U.S. marines are currently on their way to the region suggesting the U.S. might attempt to cut off Iran's capacity to export oil by taking over Kharg Island. How will China, a major consumer of Iranian oil, react to this provocation? Why is this good news for Russia? And will the inflation of oil prices reshape Donald Trump's prospects in the upcoming midterms?

Rudyard and Janice unpack the big surprises in the war from this week, specifically Iran's escalating attacks against Gulf States beyond their military bases, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which is disrupting the world's oil supply. Did the U.S. fundamentally misunderstand their opponent before heading into this conflict? Why did this administration not understand that Iran is not Venezuela? This president relies on his gut to make important decisions, and now it will be hard for Trump to end the war without an agreement from Iran and U.S. concessions to the Islamist regime. In the second half of the program Rudyard and Janice discuss the big winners so far. There is an increased demand for Russian natural gas and there are less missile interceptors flowing to Ukraine. The U.S. is overextended at home and abroad. Could Russia and China use Iran as a way to undermine the U.S while it is vulnerable? Will this war spread beyond the Middle East?

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Rudyard and Janice start today's show with the big surprise from this week: Iran striking its Gulf neighbours in an effort to get them to persuade Donald Trump to end this war, which was a serious miscalculation on their part. In fact, the lasting consequences from this conflict will be a rupture between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran that will be hard to repair. Meanwhile America's military success in Iran has been overshadowed by inconsistent messaging from its political leadership. What is the U.S. trying to accomplish? How will they know if they have succeeded, and when it is time to stop? And will rising gas prices and inflation affect Donald Trump's commitment to seeing this through? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to Mark Carney's messaging on this conflict. How should international law play into Canada's position? Carney indicated at Davos that Canada aims to be “both principled and pragmatic". But when it comes to the war with Iran, can we be both?
Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

Rudyard and Andrew try to make sense of Trump's decision to start a war with Iran so contrary to the premise that created the MAGA movement and opposition to America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. How did we end up at this point? And how will this war affect the upcoming midterm elections? Andrew thinks Trump persuaded himself that strike would be easy - just like Venezuela - and thus he has no clear strategy. What is the long term goal here? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to Canada's response to this unfolding conflict, specifically Carney signalling support of the US offensive. What is the calculation going on in the background? How are his goals domestically for bolstering trade informing his foreign policy? And finally, what role should Canada have - if any - in this region-altering conflict? Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to full episodes of Munk Dialogues with Andrew Coyne. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.