The Red Line

• 129 - Frozen Flashpoints: Greenland, Svalbard, and the Next Arctic Standoff

  The last few months have seen major shifts in the balance of power in the far north, with the US making threats toward Greenland, Russia exerting pressure on Svalbard, and Arctic shipping routes, once seen as a counterweight to the Suez Canal, are now increasingly having their viability called into question. So as Greenland heads to the polls, the territory finds itself voting on far more than just a new legislature; instead deciding on the makeup of a future arctic flashpoint that could see NATO facing pressures from both the east and the west. This week, we sit down with our expert panel to analyse how we arrived at this position, the economic factors most people overlook when discussing the Arctic, and how likely these geopolitical tensions are to escalate into conflict. On the panel this week: - Jennifer Spence (Harvard Belfer Center) - Nicolas Jouan (RAND Europe) - Sigbjørn Halsne (Norwegian Armed Forces) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:06 PART II - 28:54 PART III - 49:15 Outro - 1:19:54 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• 128 - Timor Leste's Fading Sunrise

  Timor-Leste stands at a crossroads, grappling with the legacies of Indonesian occupation, economic dependence on dwindling oil reserves, and the encroaching geopolitical pressures shaping its future. Once heralded as a success story of post-colonial independence, the country now faces mounting economic challenges, political stagnation, and an uncertain path toward ASEAN integration. Can Timor-Leste successfully diversify its economy before its oil wealth runs dry? Will its growing ties with China raise alarm bells in Canberra and Jakarta? And how do its historical struggles inform its current trajectory? We ask our panel of experts:  On the panel this week: - Michael Leach (Swinburne University) - Parker Novak (Atlantic Council) - Josh Kurlantzick (The Council on Foreign Relations) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 04:24 PART II - 27:03 PART III - 56:12 Outro - 1:08:38 Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• 127 - Sunk Cost: The US. Navy's Shipbuilding Crisis

  Many of the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding programs are currently running over budget and behind schedule, raising serious concerns about the Navy's future operational strength and the broader capacity of U.S. industry to scale production in the event of a larger conflict. This situation is particularly troubling, given that the United States once held a dominant position in global shipbuilding. So how did the U.S. reach this position, and who is to blame? Is it the Navy, the shipbuilders, private capital, the Pentagon, or even Congress? To unpack these pressing questions, we bring in our panel of experts to analyse the root causes of this decline and explore what can be done to restore the United States’ shipbuilding capabilities. On the panel this week:  - John Konrad (GCaptain) - Emma Salisbury (War on the Rocks) - Matthew Funaiole (CSIS) - Thomas Shugart (CNAS) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 04:04 PART II - 33:53 PART III - 1:02:57 PART IV - 1:22:12 Outro - 1:45:42 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• The Armed Forces of Central Asia - Part 2 : Wargaming Regional Conflicts

  As part of our wider project examining the armed forces of Central Asia, the research team sat down with experts from government, military, and academia. We brought together all of our findings and research and wargamed some of the region's most likely and plausible scenarios, not because we think war between these states is imminent, but because it is a useful way to gain better insights into how these militaries function and the challenges they would face. The format highlighted several key issues, including drivers such as the impact of lacking sufficient field trucks, unequal aerial capabilities, or the geography of the country forcing invading forces into a single narrow pocket, each of which severely limits the options available to any invading force. Across all of our wargames, we selected three of the most interesting scenarios to examine here on The Red Line, exploring three key regional conflicts, the most likely triggers for those conflicts, and how prepared each of these states are for war against a peer rival. To guide us through the findings and their implications for defence dynamics in Central Asia, we are joined by this week's special guest for part two of our mini-series, The Armed Forces of Central Asia. On the panel this week:  Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:57 PART II - 1:02:23 PART III - 1:45:30 Outro - 2:10:09 Read the Tajikistan Chapter of the Report here: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Check out the mapping project here: https://oxussociety.org/viz/military-units/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow our project partners on @OxusSociety and @ForecastIntl Support the show at:  / theredlinepodcast   Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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• 126 - Armenia’s Changing Relationship with Russia

  The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We ask our panel of experts about the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities. On the panel this week: - Oleysa Vartanyan (Caucasus Analyst) - Laurence Broers (Chatham House) - Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 05:24 PART II - 27:36 PART III - 58:08 Outro - 1:21:38 Read the Armed Forces of Central Asia Report: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at https://www.patreon.com/c/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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