The Trivium China Podcast

China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity.
On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.
The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.
Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.
What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss on the first Trivium podcast of 2026.
They look at:
How weak Q4 economic data has lit a fire under regulators
Why authorities have settled on this particular combination of policies
And what signals Beijing is trying to send markets
But wait, there’s more! On the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by a new guest to the podcast, Trivium’s lead AI and semiconductor analyst Linghao Bao. Linghao joins to discuss:
Beijing’s intervention in Meta’s recently announced acquisition of Chinese AI start-up Manus
The specific regulatory tools China is using to slow – or maybe even stop – the deal
The wider implications for China’s AI start-up ecosystem
The gents cover a lot of ground in this one – enjoy!

November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum.
Fixed asset investment declined by double digits
Industrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 months
Retail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three years
But things aren’t as bad as they seem.
This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover:
China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-driven
Why China’s consumption dynamics are more resilient than headline data suggest
The reason Beijing appears willing to tolerate a slight economic correction
Andrew and Joe then round things off by discussing China’s policy and economic outlook going into 2026.

As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come?

In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026.
Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss:
What's going on with China's general licenses and export trends
Trends and issues in US rare earth and broader critical mineral diversification efforts – including our take on the brand new international "Pax Silica" initiative
How the rest of the world is responding to all this, both reactively and proactively
How China is responding to global diversification efforts – including where it is and is not pushing back, and why
Putting it all together, they take a stab at framing the bigger strategic issues ahead.
We've all heard plenty about the tactics of supply chain decoupling – e.g., China's from US chips and Dutch lithography machines, and the US's from China's processed critical minerals
But this all begs key questions, like: What is a desirable end state for both sides? And what does "security" actually look like? (Hint: it's not full decoupling.)
Despite the fierce problems at hand, the gents land on a surprisingly optimistic vision of where US-China relations could land in the next few years – a happy note on which to enter the holidays after a tumultuous year.

At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead.
This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout.
Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail.
Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the lines.
And that's exactly what the gents do!
They start off with their 30,000-foot takeaways (TL;DR: Beijing envisions 2026 looking a lot like 2025).
Then they get into:
Where we might expect extra government spending
Whether Beijing will double-down on the consumer goods trade-in program
How Beijing intends to boost consumption

In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…
And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.
In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:
How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacity
Why Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free market
What Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look like
And what it all means for the rest of the world
Then, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.