The Trivium China Podcast

• Ep 17 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Xi Jinping's innovation obsession + the critical minerals race

  That’s a wrap, folks! The Two Sessions officially concluded in Beijing on Tuesday – just in time for this week’s podcast.To begin the pod, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Co-founder Trey McArver to break down the key policy themes from the meetings – through the lens of Xi Jinping’s itinerary.Spoiler alert: It’s pretty much all about innovation.But wait, there’s more! We round out the pod with a special discussion of the evolving critical minerals race with Lewis Black, co-founder and CEO of Almonty Industries, the world’s largest non-Chinese tungsten miner.Lewis joins Andrew and Cory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research, to examine supply chain geopolitics and its impacts on economic and national security.Needless to say, Lewis has some unique insights to share on:How the West became "addicted to the simplicity" of Chinese supply chainsWhy the 2008 financial crisis should have been a wake-up call in the crit-min spaceWhy disparities between commercial and national interests mean the US simply can’t build out critical supply chains in the same way China hasHow he would advise the US to approach diversificationYou won’t want to miss a minute.

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• Ep 16 - Trivium Markets - Decoding China’s 2025 economic playbook + Joining the Sinica Podcast Network

  The wait is over: China’s annual policy extravaganza, the Two Sessions, kicked off in Beijing on March 4.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, head of markets research, unpack the key economic targets in Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report.Given the economic headwinds – sluggish consumer demand, deflationary pressures, ongoing property sector woes, and an escalating trade war with the US – the stakes are high for getting the policy settings right.The gents kick things off by analyzing the implications of the 2025 GDP, inflation, and budget deficit targets for China’s economic prospects.They then dig into the spending and borrowing targets for the year ahead.Spoiler alert: There are some big numbers, but there’s less here than meets the eye.Finally, they wrap up with a quick discussion of China’s rapid-fire response to the second round of Trump tariffs.And this BIG: With this podcast episode, we are officially joining the Sinica Podcast Network. Following Dinny and Andrew's conversation, stay tuned for a follow up conversation between Trivium China Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, and the man behind Sinica, Kaiser Kuo.It's a great discussion, and we're all excited about the new pod partnership!

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• Ep 15 - Trivium Tech - AI fever and the future of China’s private sector

  The firehose of tech-related China policy developments has been at full blast over the past few weeks.And as always, Trivium is here to break down all the latest.In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium Partner and Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss:Xi Jinping’s recent confab with private-sector tech executivesWhat the meeting portends for private companies’ future role in advancing China’s tech ambitionsThe recent bevy of AI infrastructure investment announcements out of ChinaHow the recent DeepSeek revelation is driving it allChina’s likely response to Trump’s America First Investment PolicyThey also touch on whether “another DeepSeek” is lurking somewhere in China’s AI ecosystem, just waiting to be discovered – and how to find it.If we do say so ourselves: This one is a can’t-miss, folks.We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did.We’ll have a lot more on all these topics in future episodes.

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• Ep 14 - Trivium Markets - China’s best industrial policy is climate policy

  To thrive in the long term, China needs to undergo near-total industrial restructuring.So how’s that going?In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss the key dynamics driving China’s policy-driven industrial transition, including:How Beijing has been using calls for climate action to drive industrial production up the value chainWhere China’s painfully overcrowded new energy vehicle (NEV) market goes from hereWhat recent renewable energy reforms in the world’s largest electricity system mean for the future of both energy and manufacturing in ChinaIn looking at the issues, the gents draw from some of our less publicly visible research – providing snapshots of a much bigger (and messier) picture.Which is to say, there’s much more to come.

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• Ep 13 - Trivium Markets - China’s Q4 growth miracle, and future prospects for its export machine

  While there was never any doubt that China would hit its 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5%,” the general consensus was that full-year growth would come in somewhere near the bottom end of what might acceptably be considered “around.”Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in 2024.Even more surprising was that the economy had grown by 5.4% y/y in Q4 without any additional stimulus, when Q3 growth had only been 4.6%.In this week’s macro podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss where the growth came from (spoiler alert: it was exports) and whether it’s sustainable in 2025.They also discuss Andrew’s insights from his recent jaunt to Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

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