Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors?Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zombie firms from exiting the market.The two discuss:The most recent meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs – which took direct aim at these issuesOther signs that momentum is building for a more forceful approachThe ongoing challenges that such a policy pivot would faceParallels between this moment and mid-2016 – the last time a significant new macro policy framework was rolled outThe gents also dive into their takeaways from the June Politburo meeting – as the Party looks to better coordinate its top policymaking bodies – and touch briefly on the latest rumors that Xi Jinping is losing his grip on power.Spoiler alert: We don’t buy the rumors. It’s another fun one – so enjoy!
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Ep 30 - China preps for demise of US dollar dominance
At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization.Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.But Pan's comments suggest Beijing thinks things might be about to get easier – with global faith in the dollar starting to erode, countries and companies might soon start looking for viable alternatives.That could create an opportunity for the RMB – as long as China is ready to grab it.In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the implications of Pan's comments, and the flurry of recent measures in support of RMB internationalization.
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Ep 29 - Consumer upswings + geopolitical downswings
In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) and Joe Mazur (Trivium’s head of geopolitical research) – who all got together in Beijing. The three discuss a variety of topics including:China’s improving consumer dataThe current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock inThe latest on US-China trade talksThe latest on EU-China trade talksHow China issues played into the G7 meetings in CanadaCome for the macro-econ data, stay for the geopolitical hot takes!
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Ep 28 - Exiting the US-China trade death spiral
In the latest episode of the Trivium China podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss this week’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that appears to have gotten trade talks back on track, for now. The two discuss:The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the past three weeksWhat we know about the Xi-Trump call, and what needs to happen next to keep things on trackChina’s perspective on its rare earth export controls – and how the slow-moving approval process is upending global manufacturingPotential paths forward to a lasting agreement around US-China tradeThe EU perspective on all this – and how US-China negotiations may leave Europe out in the coldThe upshot: US-China trade talks are currently in a much better place after the call than they were just a few days ago – but whether that will last is anyone’s guess.Â
On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleagues Kendra Schaefer (Trivium’s head of tech policy) and Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) to talk through the latest tech controls from the US on China – and China’s likely reaction.The three discuss:The Trump administration’s move to restrict sales of electronic design automation (EDA) software to ChinaThe EDA landscape in China and whether Chinese tech firms can step in to fill this void in the semiconductor supply chainA spate of other US restrictions on chemicals for semiconductors, butane and ethane, machine tools, and aviation equipmentHow the Chinese will react to these moves, and what they suggest about the Trump administration’s internal coordination on China (or lack thereof)What it all means for the 90-day trade truce – and the prospects for wider tech and trade negotiationsThis stuff is pretty wild – and pretty depressing – but stick with us to the end, because we at least try to close on an upbeat note.Â
Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.
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