The Competent Investor

Steve St. Angelo, founder of the SRSRocco Report, discussed a wide range of fundamental factors impacting precious metals, energy, and the broader economy, cautioning against sensationalist price targets. He argued that the recent parabolic surge in gold and silver, driven by massive FOMO, leverage, and specific narratives like a supposed Chinese export ban, has resulted in a necessary consolidation phase.

Current margins for miners are historically high, but a correction is likely not over, with technical gaps suggesting potential downside to $3,500 gold and $55 silver, especially during a broader market sell-off. A central theme was the fragility of energy markets. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz serves as a preview of future constraints, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing inventories approaching critical functional minimums. This situation masks deeper issues, including opaque oil stockpile drawdowns in China.

Steve predicted that higher oil prices will manifest in the near term, contributing to economic stress. He identified the AI bubble as the primary catalyst for an impending recession, far more destructive than the dot-com crash, as trillions of dollars in data center buildout risk becoming stranded assets. The popping of this bubble, combined with liquidations by fundamentally unprofitable Bitcoin mining companies, is expected to trigger a significant deflationary wave. In this environment, St. Angelo sees investment demand, not industrial or central bank buying, as the ultimate long-term driver for silver, which will protect wealth as other financial assets suffer from peak energy constraints.

He also highlighted the market’s dysfunctional reality, noting that a spike to $300 silver would likely break the bullion dealer system, creating a liquidity crisis where sellers massively outnumber buyers.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:58 - Gold Silver Prod. Costs & C.B.
00:04:23 - China Oil Inventory Drawdowns
00:05:49 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Analysis
00:09:44 - Oil Inventory Timeline Risks
00:14:56 - AI Bubble and Recession Risks
00:19:43 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges
00:24:04 - Precious Metals Miner Margins
00:26:00 - Gold Silver Risk Asset Behavior
00:28:26 - Future Gold Silver Outlook
00:35:03 - Trading Silver For Gold Oz.
00:42:51 - Bitcoin Miner Economics
00:49:18 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Steve St. Angelo
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.

Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles in some of the top precious metals and financial websites.

You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-klare-blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, Pmbull, Deviantinvestor, PmBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.

#PreciousMetals #GoldSilver #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #SPRInventory #CentralBanks #InvestmentDemand #SilverMining #GoldMining #AIBubble #MarketCrash #DeflationaryWave #BitcoinMining #PeakEnergy #WealthProtection
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Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, joined your host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the complex interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and commodity markets. Lobo argued that the war in the Middle East, while not inherently inflationary, fuels inflation through the government’s response—specifically, massive deficit spending and money printing to finance the conflict. He warned that this pattern of "profligacy" historically dethrones currencies and ends empires, placing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in an impossible position between political pressure to cut rates and the economic need to fight inflation.

Recorded on: June 16, 2026

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The conversation then shifted to market opportunities. Lobo, a self-described "wolf" hunting for low-risk entries, revealed he sold all his gold and silver stocks near the January peak, not from bearishness but from disciplined profit-taking. He is now eyeing the oil sector, anticipating that a potential peace deal could cause an overreaction and a sharp drawdown in oil prices, creating a compelling buying opportunity for quality producers. He remains long-term bullish on copper and uranium, citing structural supply deficits and the paradigm shift toward nuclear energy for 24/7 power and energy independence. However, he cautioned that an AI-driven market scare could put those sectors on sale as well.

Tiggre also touched on the improving permitting environment for mining in the U.S. under the Trump administration, noting it creates an investable window before potential policy reversals. He discussed his research on "crappy producers," confirming they can outperform in a bull market due to margin expansion but require precise market timing to avoid devastating drawdowns. Ultimately, Tiggre emphasized a disciplined, contrarian approach: patiently waiting for clear "buy low" opportunities across commodities rather than chasing momentum, and using tools like selling puts to enter positions at advantageous prices.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:52 - Fed Policy and War Impact
00:05:42 - Peace Deal Prospects
00:12:37 - Supply Chain Rerouting
00:15:20 - SpaceX IPO Valuations
00:22:34 - Taking Profits?
00:29:08 - Gold Sentiment & Opportunity
00:37:53 - Demand For Metals & Permitting
00:41:14 - Bull Markets & Miner Performance
00:46:12 - Oil Sector Strategy
00:49:23 - Copper Market Constrained?
00:51:55 - Uranium Market Thoughts
00:59:40 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://independentspeculator.com
X: https://x.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/

Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.

Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.

#Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #OilMarket #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Investing #Gold #Silver #Uranium #Commodities #StockMarket #AITechnology #MarketAnalysis

Guest:

Lobo Tiggre — Author & Founder of the Independent Speculator
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.

Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.
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Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, presents a contrarian view on bonds, arguing they are now an attractive investment due to three factors.

First, the dominance of passive bond indices creates mechanical distortions, as market-cap weighting leads to misallocation during interest rate changes, undermining price discovery.

Second, broad inflation has largely ended, with demographics and high short-term rates pushing conditions toward deflation, while many confuse ongoing price-level increases with inflation.

Third, equities face high valuations and concentration risk, making bonds a safer option for income, especially for retirees. Green explains how banks’ "hold to maturity" bond holdings, trapped by unrealized losses from rate hikes, restrict credit provision. He proposed to the Treasury replacing these bonds at current coupons to free capital without a bailout, reducing systemic stress. He warns that monetary policy now acts as fiscal stimulus due to high debt-to-GDP, making rate cuts potentially contractionary and risking a crisis in housing and credit markets.

Green dismisses ideas like gold revaluation or gold-backed bonds as ineffective fantasy, emphasizing that bond market dysfunction is a global Western phenomenon tied to passive investing. He notes upcoming IPOs like SpaceX may increase equity supply and pressure valuations, but their scale is manageable compared to 2000. Ultimately, Green urges investors to recognize how bonds have shifted and to seek education on economic realities, advocating for forward-looking policy that improves infrastructure rather than reacts to crises.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:15 - Non-Consensus View on Bonds
00:01:55 - Understanding Inflation Properly
00:03:48 - Why Bonds Are Interesting Now
00:05:45 - Banking System Bond Problems
00:07:57 - Treasury Proposal to Free Capital
00:12:11 - Passive Investing Distortions
00:21:52 - Risks of Impending Crisis
00:28:01 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges
00:35:07 - Inflation Impact on Consumers
00:44:26 - IPOs and Market Supply Issues
00:55:10 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Green — Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management
Michael is Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.
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Craig Tindale argues that the current global instability stems from humanity's tendency to mistake its complex models for reality. He explains that systems like central banking and globalized supply chains were built on narrow metrics, such as price efficiency, while ignoring broader consequences like sovereignty and resilience. This "delusional" approach led to the offshoring of industrial capacity, creating critical dependencies that are now being exposed. He draws a parallel with climate models, noting how specialized scientific silos fail to capture integrated system dynamics, such as how shipping fuel regulations reduced cloud cover and increased ocean heating.

The discussion highlights how blockages in key chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz, are triggering cascading downstream effects that the "just-in-time" global economy cannot easily absorb. Tindale details the often-overlooked petrochemical supply chain, explaining how disruptions in products like naphtha and sulfuric acid will take months to materialize into shortages for fertilizers, plastics, and metal refining. This delayed reaction, he notes, creates a false sense of security that does not fit political or market cycles.

On the economic front, Tindale predicts a necessary end to the era of perpetual asset inflation and consumption driven by the wealthy. He believes the US dollar will evolve rather than collapse, likely becoming more of a transactional currency as nations form competing blocs and gravitate toward a commodity-backed system. He criticizes the dominant geopolitical narratives of short wars and national primacy, suggesting that major powers like the US and China are locked in a checkmate that will damage all involved, with smaller nations suffering the worst consequences. Ultimately, he advises cultivating personal resilience, community, and a capacity to tolerate uncertainty rather than seeking definitive predictions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:40 - Models and Civilizational Renewal
00:08:36 - Understanding Climate Models
00:14:34 - Borrowing from the Future
00:17:17 - Just-in-Time Inventory Issues
00:22:00 - Downstream Oil Consequences
00:32:50 - Market Responses to Closures
00:38:10 - Dollar and Bond Impacts
00:46:50 - Potential for More Conflicts
00:51:50 - New Reserve Currency Basket
01:00:40 - Finding Credible Information
01:05:42 - Wrap Up

Guest:

Craig Tindale — Private Investor and Publish of the CTindale Substack
Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.

He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.
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Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, joined host Tom Bodrovics to discuss his view that the economy is walking a tightrope between two starkly different outcomes. Kao outlined a framework with four macro quadrants, defining a "Goldilocks" scenario of disinflationary growth and a "stagflationary" environment of slow growth with high inflation. His original thesis for the Trump 2.0 playbook anticipated the Goldilocks path, powered by AI-driven productivity and reshoring initiatives he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," which could reduce the deficit much like the mid-1990s. This outlook has been severely disrupted by the unexpected Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has injected a supply-side inflationary shock into the system. This oil-led inflation is demand-destructive, essentially acting as a tax on consumers, and differs from the demand-led inflation of 2021.

A tour of current macro indicators highlights this tension: inflation measures (CPI, PPI, PCE) are rising, while labor and headline growth metrics remain surprisingly resilient. However, the consumer is being squeezed, with retail sales, spending, and consumer confidence declining alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Kao warns that many downstream inflationary effects, especially in food and petrochemicals, have yet to fully materialize. He believes the Federal Reserve is effectively "boxed," with no good case for either cutting rates and stoking inflation or hiking into a supply shock that is already hurting consumers. Despite the short-term turmoil, Kao remains optimistic that powerful secular deflationary forces from AI will ultimately reassert themselves. He cited staggering examples of AI-driven efficiency that could anchor long-term growth.

For positioning, he personally seeks safety in diversified, uncorrelated streams of passive income from assets like oil and gas private equity and idiosyncratic credit, avoiding a traditional passive beta approach. His parting thought highlighted the modern "fog of war," where deliberate obfuscation makes it crucial to watch market clues for what is truly transpiring beneath the geopolitical chaos.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:05 - Defining Macro Scenarios
00:07:40 - Iran War Macro Impact
00:10:22 - Tariffs and Demand Elasticity
00:16:16 - Macro Indicators Overview
00:21:25 - Consumer and Housing Metrics
00:23:30 - PPI CPI and Data Trust
00:27:38 - Federal Reserve Roundtable
00:31:36 - Goldilocks Scenario Outlook
00:35:53 - Oil Demand Destruction Risks
00:42:18 - Fed Rate Policy Challenges
00:46:07 - AI Productivity Boom
00:52:55 - Investment Positioning Strategy
00:56:06 - Urban Kaoberg Project
01:03:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Kao — Private Family Office Investor & Author - Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader
Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.

Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

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