On Point

With the election just weeks away, Treasury will release the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) on Tuesday and we'll get a fresh look at the state of our collective finances. Internationally, it will be a big week of US economic releases with highlights likely to be the PCE inflation report, the ISM manufacturing index and the latest monthly jobs report.

The US Federal Reserve, the world’s most influentialcentral bank, has increased interest rates for the first time since 2023. With more likely to be on the way, this looks to be the beginning of another interest rate “hiking cycle”. What might this mean for markets, and what can we learn from previous hiking cycles?

Global flash purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) will be the highlight of the coming week, as we monitor how the global economy will enter the final quarter of the year. On the political front, investors will be watching the summit between US president Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Washington DC.

Global bond yields have kept on rising, as investors fret over higher government debt levels, rising oil prices and competition from debt issuance to fund AI infrastructure. What do investors need to know, are bonds back to the old normal, and is fixed income finally moving toward its former glory as a sustainable income option?

Global financial markets had a rough week, with an escalating situation in the Middle East pushing oil prices back over $100 and rising bond yields continuing to pressure asset prices. This week's main event will be the Federal Reserve, which will release its latest policy decision on Thursday morning (NZ time). While not a slam dunk, market pricing leans toward the first rate hike since 2023.