DHUnplugged Podcast

• DHUnplugged #778: Total HorseSh!t

  Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 The Big Short - End of a Era? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday - The Big Short - End of a Era? - What is happening to Bitcoin? - THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed Markets - Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale - Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 - Hindenburg Omen - Fed Losing Cred WHY? - If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries.... - President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg - So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we? --- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit More Tariffs - Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028 - Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports - For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat. - Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028. - What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS Fed Update - Markets no longer view December as a sure bet - Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish - Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95% - AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool) More Horseshit! - Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office. - Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago - That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. - Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on! - Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time.... StampFlation - The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week. - The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select. BIG - Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. - In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year. - "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets," Burry said in the letter. - Put on a big OPTIONS short on NVDA and PLTR - We checked and his Registration expired.. Has about $155 million under management - not so much.. - He hinted that he will be back doing something and will announce on November 25th... Softbank - We know that they CUT all of their NVDA holdings - Looking at the 13F, also cut ORCL - New position in INTC - Looking to raise significant cast to outlay to private companies over the next couple of months. - Stock is up 120% YTD, DOWN 12% last week - Did you know He had for many years the distinction of being the person who had lost the most money in history (more than $59 billion during the dot-com crash of 2000 alone, when his SoftBank shares plummeted), a feat surpassed by Elon Musk in the following decades. THC Blues ??? - A new ban, tucked into legislation ending the longest shutdown in history, outlaws products containing more than 0.4 milligrams of total THC per container. == Industry executives said that threshold will wipe out 95% of the $28 billion hemp retail market when it takes effect in a year. - 300,000 jobs could be effected ($28 billion annually) - Possible that state laws will win out, but clearly Federal laws are not going the way of the industry. - Concern that the blackmarket will grow again - However, this can be seen in several ways as it may be cleaning up some of the selling of things like Delta-8 those weird knock-offs seen at gas stations) UK Tax Scrap - British government bond yields rose sharply on Friday morning as investors react to reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will scrap an expected increase in income tax. - The moves came as investors reacted to a report from the Financial Times of an income tax U-turn. - Remember that they did a similar plan a few years ago that caused major havoc with markets and currencies until they withdrew the idea. How Does This Work? - House Republicans drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies, according to Politico Some Eco ...?? - Employment Situation for September 2025 that was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3, 2025, will now be release  Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:30 AM ET - What about October? White House says it may NEVER be released Hindenburg Omen - There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen. This is a warning signal of trouble, but trouble does not always come. What is fair to say is that Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared at every major stock market top going back several decades. - According to Tom McClellan: The current count of 5 signals is not as big as some other clusters. But we got 4 signals in a cluster at the end of 2021, ahead of the 2022 bear market. So 4 is enough, if the market is inclined to live up to this warning. And 2 signals were enough back in December 2024 and March 2025 to tell us about the trouble in the market which unfolded in the April 2025 tariff reaction minicrash. But 5 is better. Pied Piper - Losing Followers - OpenAi plans to invest $1.4 Trillion over the next 5 years or so - Biggest beneficiary - Oracle - Stock went from $250 to $340 overnight - now a $220 (Full Round-trip) - Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month. Disney Earnings - Hmmmmm...... - Shares fall 8% as revenue misses - Digging in for a prolonged flight with YouTube - The company also missed quarterly revenue expectations as the cable weakness overshadowed strong growth in the company's streaming and parks businesses central to its growth. - Family of 4 - Trip to Disney - A  3-night trip with tickets and dining is estimated to be between $6,000 and $9,000 Starbucks - Can it get any worse for this company? - Starbucks Workers United launched a strike in more than 40 cities and 65 stores on the day of chain’s Red Cup Day sales event. - NY incoming Mayor Mandami says there should be a total boycott of the stores - The union is pushing for improved hours, higher wages and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges levied against Starbucks. Buffett - Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and further reduced its stake in Apple (AAPL), detailing its equity portfolio for the last time before Warren Buffett ends his 60-year run as chief executive officer. - They also sold more Bank of America - *6% reduction - although still the thrid largest stockholder - Sold homebuilder DR Horton - Bought position in Domino's Pizza and Chubb ---- DPZ chart looks terrible Over to China - Economy not getting any better - Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period. - Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September. - Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month. - The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country. Electric Prices - We know that the new wave of data centers are requiring HUGE amounts of energy to keep them running - Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

  --------  

  1:01:41

  --------

  1:01:41
• DHUnplugged #777: Bifurcation

  NEW CTP for IBIT Under/Over - Looks like the OVER Presidential PARDONS and A King's EVICTION All Excited - Making headway on the Deficit ! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - NEW CTP for IBIT - Under/Over - Looks like the OVER - Presidential PARDONS and A King's EVICTION - All Excited - Making headway on the Deficit ! Markets - DJIA hits new ATH - after big moves last week - Buyers stepped in (again) - NASDAQ - lagging as AI trade is questioned - THEREFORE - what is happening is a simple rotation again - ALL IN! Just back from a wedding in NJ - Did some Apple picking, hot cider and donuts! Pardon Me... - President Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of his political allies for their support or involvement in plans to overturn the 2020 presidential election, according to the Department of Justice’s Pardon Attorney, Ed Martin. - Several others (20+) were pardoned as well including some that plead guilty. Over the Pond - King Charles III on Thursday stripped his disgraced brother Prince Andrew of his remaining titles and evicted him from his royal residence after weeks of pressure to act over his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Buckingham Palace said. - After the king’s rare move, which follows years of shameful scandals, he will be known as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor and not as a prince, and he will have to vacate his Royal Lodge mansion near Windsor Castle. Debt - The U.S. government’s gross national debt surpassed $38 trillion Wednesday, a record number that highlights the accelerating accumulation of debt on America’s balance sheet. - It’s also the fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the COVID-19 pandemic — the U.S. hit $37 trillion in gross national debt in August this year. - “During his first eight months in office, President Trump has reduced the deficit by $350 billion compared to the same period in 2024 by cutting spending and boosting revenue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement, adding that the administration would pursue robust economic growth, lower inflation, tariff revenue, lower borrowing costs and cuts to waste, fraud and abuse. - Petersen Foundation: “Along with increasing debt, you get higher interest costs, which are now the fastest growing part of the budget,” Peterson added. “We spent $4 trillion on interest over the last decade, but will spend $14 trillion in the next ten years. Interest costs crowd out important public and private investments in our future, harming the economy for every American.” - Debt Growing by $69,000 per second over the the past year... Stock New - BIG Softbank - Softbank sells entire stake in NVDA - $5.83 Billion - To soften the blow, they said that it as because they are using it to redeploy further into AI - OpenAi to be specific - Also sold part of T-Moblie and using margin loan against ARM to fund the $22.5 BILLION investment in OpenAI - “This should not be seen, in our view, as a cautious or negative stance on Nvidia, but rather in the context of SoftBank needing at least $30.5bn of capital for investments in the Oct-Dec quarter, including $22.5bn for OpenAI and $6.5bn for Ampere,” Rolf Bulk, equity research analyst at New Street Research, told CNBC. - IMPORTANT SO MARKETS DO NOT GET SPOOKED: ?[SoftBank] made a point of saying that it wasn’t any view on NVIDIA. ... At the end of the day, they are using the money to invest in other AI related companies,” he said. Coreweave Earnings - The provider of infrastructure for artificial intelligence companies, reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue on Monday, but the company delivered disappointing full-year guidance. - The company reported a net loss of $110 million, narrowing from about $360 million in the same quarter last year. - Problem at one of their data centers - basically they are not up and running at potential - Stock dropped 15% (Stock ran up to $185 in June and now at $88 MasterCard and Visa -  Visa and Mastercard announced a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants who accused the card networks of charging too much to accept their credit cards, hoping to satisfy a judge who rejected a smaller accord as inadequate. - Monday's settlement would end 20 years of litigation in which businesses accused Visa, Mastercard and banks of conspiring to violate U.S. antitrust laws, including through the card networks' collection of "swipe fees." - The settlement calls for Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees, which averaged 2.35% in 2024 and typically range from 2% to 2.5%, by 0.1 percentage point for five years. -- Retail Merchants Associations still not happy about this... - Merchants would also get more options to impose surcharges when people pay by card, including an "unfettered" ability to charge up to 3%, according to a court filing. - STILL they charge 20%-35% (The highest variable rate advertised for a specific card is 36% on the First PREMIER® Bank Mastercard Credit Card.) A Head Scratcher - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Thursday that the artificial intelligence startup is on track to generate more than $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate this year, with plans to grow to hundreds of billions in sales by 2030. - The company has inked more than $1.4 trillion of infrastructure deals in recent months to try and build out the data centers it says are needed to meet growing demand. - Question: It is almost impossible for companies with a long track record, stable business and known clientele to project out one year as things change so fast in the economy. How can a recent startup with new technology that is unknown the use in the future project out 5 years? Tesla - The vote is in and Elon got his pay package! - Update: Elon Musk is the richest person in the world as of November 2025, with a net worth that has approached and briefly crossed $500 billion Economy K Shape - U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to near a 3-1/2-year low in early November as households across the political spectrum worried about the economic fallout from the longest government shutdown in history, which has caused disruptions ranging from food benefit payments to grounded flights. - The current level is closing on on the worst in 20 years - Democrats are really in the dumps, while Republicans are upbeat (91 vs 33)  - High earners happy - lower earnings very unhappy. - For the economy? Consider that the top 20% of households by income drive 40% of consumer spending Employment - Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. - It was the highest level for any October since 2003 and has been the worst year for layoffs since 2009. - Challenger reports the highest level of layoffs coming from the technology sector amid a time of restructuring due to AI integration. Companies in the sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September. - In total, companies have announced 1.1 million cuts this year, a 65% increase from a year ago and the highest level since the Covid pandemic year of 2020. Rate Cuts? - Miran says half-point cut ‘appropriate’ for December, but Fed should at least reduce by a quarter point (What a tool!) - “If you’re making data for what, if you’re making policy for what the data are now, you are backward looking, because it will take 12 to 18 months for that to hit the economy. So you need to make policy now based on where you think the economy is going to be a year to a year and a half from now.” - SOOOOOO - he thinks the economy is slowing over the next 12-18 months? Doesn't that conflict with how great Kevin Hasset Even so.....Can't be all bad... - Levi's will sell its new line of $300 jeans in more stores next year as it looks to boost growth by tapping into strong demand for premium denim, Chief Financial and Growth Officer Harmit Singh told Reuters. - Launched in Asia earlier this year, and in around two dozen stores in Europe and the U.S. since September, the Blue Tab range of higher quality jeans and shirts is part of an ongoing push to broaden the Levi's brand and attract more women. - In Europe, Blue Tab jeans sell for between about 250 and 350 euros ($290-410), compared with between 70 and 130 euros for its Red Tab line. Blue Tab jackets sell for around 700 euros. EV Hangover - Ford Motor is reportedly considering permanently ending production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck amid mounting losses and more challenging market conditions for EVs. - Ford's President, when asked last month by media about Lightning production potentially ending, said the company’s main priority was gas-powered models. - F-150 Lightning sales this year through October are roughly level compared with a year earlier at only 24,577 units. Since going on sale in 2022 in the U.S., Ford has sold less than 100,000 F-150 Lightning models. SAD NEWS - A 208-year-old publication that farmers, gardeners and others keen to predict the weather have relied on for guidance will be publishing for the final time. - Farmers' Almanac said Thursday that its 2026 edition will be its last, citing the growing financial challenges of producing and distributing the book in today's “chaotic media environment.” Access to the online version will cease next month. - The Maine-based publication, not to be confused with the even older Old Farmer’s Almanac in neighboring New Hampshire, was first printed in 1818. For centuries, it's used a secret formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and lunar cycles to generate long-range weather forecasts.

  --------  

  1:01:37

  --------

  1:01:37
• DHUnplugged #776: Same Story Line

  Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks.... Say goodbye to the penny! November heading for a potential fall. Splits - Are they back? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter NEED A NEW CTP - How About a Crypto ETF? (IBIT) INTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up - Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks.... - Say goodbye to the penny - November heading for a potential fall - Prediction - When will US Government Reopen - New Term - AI Washing Markets - OpenAI - even more deals - Palatir Earnings - Serepta FLOP -AMAZON BLOWOUT - Splits - Are they back? Election Day - Updates? The SAME Stories are making their way around - Seasonally good time for equities - Don't fight the Fed - Earnings trend - Buybacks again Under/Over on When US Government Opens - November 10th - Under/Over? November Outlook - On the heels of a good October... - Question: How much more is in the tank for blowouts? Earnings season is about over and what are other catalysts - Aside from Santa? - More NVDA excitement? More OpenAi deals??? - So much good news is priced in it is hard to imagine HUGE upside AI Washing - AI washing is a deceptive marketing tactic where companies exaggerate or falsely claim to use artificial intelligence in their products to appear more innovative and advanced. - It is also used when layoffs occur to say that there is less need for employees due to advances in technology. - Corporate giants Amazon, UPS and Target each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 jobs cut this year. Amazon - Great earnings - stock up HUGE to ATH ater the report - Amazon beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line - Reports Q3 (Sep) GAAP earnings of $1.95 per share, $0.38 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $180.17 bln vs the $177.91 bln FactSet Consensus. - Co reports Q3 operating income, excluding items, of $21.7 bln vs prior guidance of $15.5-20.5 bln. - North America segment sales increased 11.2% yr/yr to $106.27 bln. - International segment sales increased 14.0% yr/yr (+10% CC) to $40.90 bln. - AWS segment sales rose 20% yr/yr (+20% CC) to $33.01 bln. - Advertising Services rose 24% yr/yr (+22% CC) to $17.70 bln. - Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $206-213 bln vs. $208.41 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to Q4 operating income of $21-26 bln. OpenAi and Amazon - OpenAI has signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services, and will immediately start accessing Nvidia’s graphics processing units. - This is one of OpenAI’s biggest moves away from Microsoft, which was the company’s exclusive cloud provider until earlier this year. - The partnership gives OpenAI the flexibility to scale infrastructure through 2026 and beyond. - Under the agreement announced on Monday, OpenAI will immediately begin running workloads on AWS infrastructure, tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in the U.S., with plans to expand capacity in the coming years. - Amazon up another 5% Palantir Earnings - Palantir Technologies prelim Q3 $0.21 vs $0.17 FactSet Consensus; revs $1.18 bln vs $1.09 bln FactSet Consensus - Palantir Technologies sees Q4 revs $1.327-1.331 bln vs $1.18 bln FactSet Consensus - Stock up slightly - been on a rager lately.... ATH - Stock down 8% on Tuesday - most of the good news is priced in? AMD Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (250.05 -9.60) - Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.20 per share, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.17; revenues rose 35.6% year/year to $9.25 bln vs the $8.76 bln FactSet Consensus. - On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 54%, operating income was $2.2 billion, net income was $2 billion and diluted earnings per share was $1.20. Our third quarter results did not include any revenue from shipments of AMD Instinct MI308 GPU products to China. - Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $9.3-9.9 bln vs. $9.21 bln FactSet Consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 54.5%. - Down 3% after hours Netflix - Announces a 10-1 split - Commentators are all a flutter about this - so good for the small investor - ARE THEY THAT STUPID? - Example NFLX shares at $1,100 - does that preclude someone that has $250 from buying?????? ==== NO! Partial share ownership is available with most brokerages... Supreme Court dealing with Tariffs - Lower courts ruled that Trumps use of tariffs are not lawful. - Latest tirade against Canada is not a good showing for the "national security" use of tariffs - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Supreme Court to uphold the IEEPA-based tariffs. ----> But if it strikes down the tariffs, Bessent said in an interview, the administration will simply switch to other tariff authorities, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows broad 15% tariffs for 150 days to calm trade imbalances. --- So they are not really national emergencies, just a Presidential authority that they will try to fit into a standing power? ----LET'S JUST SAY WHAT IT IS..... PUNITIVE MEASURES FOR FUN INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ China "Deal" - After a careful review - China won that match by a mile - China buying soybeans, says they will try to stop Fentanyl (U.S. reduced tariffs on that) and less restrictive rare earth exports out of China.... - So, what do we have ? Maybe a benefit to the farmers, nothing gained otherwise... - They checkmated us with the Rare Earths... - Not a deal - nope... Please do not call it a deal.... - EXACTLY THE SAME AS TRUMP 1.0 on this one... Headcounts - Several companies are talking about layoffs. - Amazon 10k - 30k - META (small) - Now the discussion is turning to WHY - AI or consumers? - Big story-line is the excess buildup post COVID and fear by companies that employees were scarce - that is changing. - On the other hand - Microsoft is hiring Singularity  - Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman says only biological beings are capable of consciousness, and that developers and researchers should stop pursuing projects that suggest otherwise. - “I don’t think that is work that people should be doing,” Suleyman told CNBC in an interview this week at the AfroTech Conference in Houston, where he was among the keynote speakers. “If you ask the wrong question, you end up with the wrong answer. I think it’s totally the wrong question.” - Thoughts??? Say goodbye to the Penny - US no longer makes pennies - Retailers are worried about profits if they cannot provide, they may have to round up to a nickle when they make change for a transaction - In fact there is some panic about this it appears.... - Why can't a place just round to the nickle on the sale?????? Seems simple (they pass on other costs to consumers all the time) NEED HELP! - Watching TV and a Bombardier commercial for one of their jets comes on.. - Fastest private airplane in the world -Global 8000 - "See a dawn that never ends" (If I am flying into the dawn EAST, as they show in the commercial, on a very fast plane - Dawn is quick and over.) - See a sunset that never ends... isn't that a more truthful and better line? Morgan Stanley AND Goldman CEOS -  Tag Team - Talking about how a correction could be coming - Can they create corrections with their comments? - All about perception, outlook and confidence...... Serepta - Nice Bounce... Then: - Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) plunged 40% after its late-stage Duchenne trial failure and weak sales overshadowed a slight earnings beat. -Q3 2025 revenue fell 15% year-over-year, driven by lower ELEVIDYS sales and ongoing restructuring efforts, despite steady demand for its PMO portfolio. Shein - Child like Sex Dolls on their site - After France's consumer watchdog found sex dolls resembling children for sale on Shein's platform, finance minister Roland Lescure threatened on Monday to block Shein's access to the French market if it ever sold such dolls again. - France is working on fast fashion law that may crimp Shein sales - so this is a way for France to go after competition with its fashion firms. - Shein is supposed to be opening outlets in several malls and stores in France New Financial Hub - Y'All Street? - Financial services firms have increased their presence in the state of Texas in recent years as they diversify their strategic footprint beyond the traditional financial hub of New York City's Wall Street. - Meanwhile: Greg Abbott Threatens ‘100% Tariff’ On New Yorkers Moving to Texas   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE WINNER of The Closest to The Pin for Lithium Americas (LAC)    Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

  --------  

  1:01:55

  --------

  1:01:55
• DHUnplugged #775: Everything Is Fine

  Exhaustion signals TESLA - a rabbit out of a hat! Fed meeting in focus S&P earnings week - its a big one PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Don't fight the tape - Exhaustion signals everywhere - but plenty of money floating around it seems - Seeing lots of overheated signs..... - BUT, everything is fine. Nothing to worry about Markets - Fed Meeting today and tomorrow - Rate decision on Wednesday - Biggest week for earnings (S&P) - ATH - Let' GO! First time over 6,780 for the S&P 500 - Profit margins with those Tariffs - Surprise! - Emerging markets - On FIRE! Factoid - Ft Lauderdale Boat Show - The economic impact of the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show (FLIBS) is significant, generating over $1.78 billion in economic output for Florida, supporting more than 100,000 jobs, and creating millions in sales and taxes. The Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show is considered to be the largest boat show in the world, with over 3 million square feet of exhibition space across multiple marinas. Godcaster is turning churches into local radio stations - Get the Godcaster app on Android and iOS - An Adam Curry Project Fed Meeting - Stock and All time highs - GOLD, SILVER rocking - Crypto doing just fine - GDP good - Employment good - Housing market improving - Limited information about economic activity due to Government is CLOSED - Inflation is well about Fed's own measures (3%) - FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES REMEMBER - NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT - TRUST THE GOVERNMENT  CPI - The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, both lower than expected. - Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, less than forecast. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data specifically because the Social Security Administration uses it as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks. Otherwise, the federal government has suspended all data compilation during the shutdown. Quick Meme Update - BYND - fell back to earth - down to $1.75 from $7 last week... - We should have shorted for the game like we talked about - It was supposed to be the next Apple! Qualcomm News! - They are in the game now - seems that Qualcomm now has the goods to compete with AMD and NVDA - Stock up 15% on this news (AMD and NVDA unfazed) - Qualcomm’s data center chips are based on the AI parts in Qualcomm’s smartphone chips called Hexagon neural processing units, or NPUs. - Nearly $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures will be spent on data centers through 2030, with the majority going to systems based around AI chips, according to a McKinsey estimate. (3% of of annual GDP for the ext 5 years) Why Not Intel? - The U.S. has formed a $1 billion partnership with Advanced Micro Devices  to construct two supercomputers that will tackle large scientific problems ranging from nuclear power to cancer treatments to national security, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and AMD CEO Lisa Su told Reuters. - The U.S. is building the two machines to ensure the country has enough supercomputers to run increasingly complex experiments that require harnessing enormous amounts of data-crunching capability. The machines can accelerate the process of making scientific discoveries in areas the U.S. is focused on. NVDA Spending Spree - Massive announcements today and $1billion stake in Nokia - Nokia announced on Tuesday that Nvidia is taking a $1 billion stake in the networking company, the latest partnership for the artificial intelligence chipmaker. - Shares of Nokia soared 26% higher following the news. - Nokia will issue more than 166 million new shares and will use the proceeds to fund its plans for AI and other general corporate purposes. - The two companies also struck a strategic partnership to work together to develop next-generation 6G cellular technology. Nokia said that it would adapt its 5G and 6G software to run on Nvidia’s chips, and will collaborate on networking technology for AI. Government Shut Down - Flight Delays - NO EBT starting November - High pressure tactics that will be used in the future - Pulling some benefits from Blue States - Need to have new plan to deal with these politicians  - are they getting paid? YES Farmer Scott - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has “felt pain” from China refusing to buy American soybeans during a trade conflict with President Donald Trump. - “I’m actually a soybean farmer,” he told ABC News’ “This Week.” - SURPRISE! Part of the Framework deal with China is that China will again start buying soybeans Cathy Wood - Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood on Tuesday pushed back on fears of an artificial intelligence bubble, while flagging the possibility of a “reality check” on AI valuations. -  Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on the sidelines of Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, or FII, in Riyadh, Wood said that as interest rates begin to rise, “there will be a shudder” in markets. - “We are going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates,” the closely watched investor said. NO WAY JOSE - Not good.... this needs to be explained and reversed... - The mystery donor whose $130 million contribution is meant to pay U.S. military troops during the government shutdown is Timothy Mellon, an heir to a renowned Gilded Age banking family, The New York Times reported Saturday. - But Mellon’s donation works out to only about $100 per service member. It costs nearly $6.4 billion to pay U.S. troops every two weeks. - And using his money might run afoul of federal law, according to the Times, which cited two people familiar with the matter in identifying the billionaire railroad magnate as the donor. - This invites all sorts of potential problems and conflict of interest. Plus, can we just say where we want our tax dollars to go to? How about those Profit Margins? - Given concerns in the market about tariffs and higher costs, what is the S&P 500 reporting for a net profit margin for Q3? - The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q3 2025 is 12.8%, which is equal to the previous quarter’s net profit margin, but above the year-ago net profit margin and above the 5-year average. - In fact, this quarter marks the 6th consecutive quarter that the S&P 500 is reporting a net profit margin above the 5-year average (12.1%). - --- BUT that 5-yr average includes some hard times... - At the sector level, four sectors are reporting a year-over-year increase in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Financials (19.9% vs. 18.0%) and Utilities (16.7% vs. 14.8%) sectors. On the other hand, six sectors are reporting a year-over-year decrease in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Communication Services (13.8 vs. 14.8%), Real Estate (34.3% vs. 35.2%), and Health Care (7.3% vs. 8.2%) sectors. Is this the new normal? - The Dutch government has invoked control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, under its Goods Availability Act. - Following the announcement by The Hague, Wingtech’s Shanghai-listed shares plunged 10% to hit its max daily limit. - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, in an extraordinary move to ensure a sufficient supply of its chips remains available in Europe amid rising global trade tensions. - Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, specializes in the high-volume production of chips used in automotive, consumer electronics and other industries, making it vital for maintaining Europe’s technological supply chains. OpenAI - Following up on the vendor financing and circular financing - OpenAI has close to a TRILLION DOLLARS of commitments over the next 10 years. - Signed a deal with AMD last we spoke and spiked that stock 40% (OpenAI could option for 10% ownership through warrants) - As part of the arrangement, AMD issued a warrant that gives OpenAI the ability to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of the chip deal. The warrant vests in tranches based on milestones that the two companies have agreed on. MORE.... - Questions starting to get raised about the possibility of OpenAI actually being able to fund these deals. - Example - Oracle repricing - DOWN 18% Tesla - Bad earnings - no problem! Let's announce more Robotaxi potential and now ROBOTS - Horrible  earnings, with a really ugly margin compression from expected (500bps) - Just wait a day or so and the stock rebounds from $417 to $457 on a PR blitz to show that there is still the chance that the dream of Autonomous driving will happen AND - Tesla chair Robyn Denholm pleaded with shareholders to approve CEO Elon Musk's unprecedented compensation package, one that could cost the company $1 trillion, with the threat of Musk leaving the company. - In a letter sent to shareholders Monday morning, which follows a prior letter sent last week, Denholm warned the company stands to lose Musk's leadership if shareholders do not approve the plan. Amazon - Amazon is planning to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs beginning on Tuesday, as the company works to pare expenses and compensate for overhiring during the peak demand of the pandemic, according to three people familiar with the matter. - The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon’s 1.55 million total employees, but nearly 10% of the company’s roughly 350,000 corporate employees.

  --------  

  1:03:05

  --------

  1:03:05
• DHUnplugged #774: Right to Win

  A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again Markets is sideways mode The scary tariffs and a walk back Apple News........ PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter We’re dedicating this episode to Sophia Maria — someone very special who left us too soon... Warm-Up - A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again - Markets is sideways mode - The scary tariffs and a walk back - Apple News........ - Announcing the WINNER of the CTP for LAC Markets - Yields dropping - Region bank scare due to 2/3 bankruptcies (new stress) - Fed stops tightening - why is that? - TACO trade is back - Buig Tech earnings on the way "Just when you think that the coast is clear - the banks will somehow screw things up" US Government Shutdown - Day 19? Bitcoin - Hits all-time high above $125,000 - then pulls back - Big moves with crypto last couple of weeks - Trump tariff comments spooked speculators -- Some coins were down 15-25% after the close on that Friday GOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD! - Taking a walloping last couple of days... -- Was really overbought -- Silver getting hammered too (8% in 2 days) Gold, Silver BOOM - Also hits new highs - then backs off a tad - Major holiday in India --- First day of Diwali in India - Buying gold (and silver) on Dhanteras is considered highly auspicious. It symbolizes: -- Wealth and prosperity, invoking blessings from Goddess Lakshmi (the deity of wealth). -- Health and longevity, honoring Lord Dhanvantari, the divine healer who is believed to have emerged with the nectar of immortality on this day. --  Financial stability, as gold is seen as a secure and pure investment. New Phrase - Like the use of TAM - Total Addressable Market or other PR phrases.... - "Right to win" is a business strategy concept that refers to a company's ability to enter a competitive market with a high probability of success, based on its unique advantages. It is not an automatic entitlement but is earned through a coherent strategy that aligns a company's "way to play" (its strategy) with its core capabilities and assets. This requires a clear, sustainable competitive advantage over rivals - Heard this just today TWICE - CEO of NASDAQ and CEO of Goldman Sachs - OBNOXIOUS! Super TACO - What was that? - Bad lunch or something? - 100% tariff on China - on a Friday afternoon - - Vance walks-back on Saturday - Just a negotiating tactic (so dumb) - Trump Walks back on Sunday Warnings - David Solomon (GS CEO) - Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years. - Relating to the dot.com bubble: “You’re going to see a similar phenomenon here,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ... I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns, and when that happens, people won’t feel good.” More Warnings - Jamie Dimon talks about cockroaches related to the recent bankruptcies (where there is one - there are more...) - First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier, filed for bankruptcy with over $11.6 billion in liabilities. The company’s use of invoice factoring—allegedly pledging the same receivables to multiple lenders—has triggered a federal investigation and raised alarms about off-balance-sheet financing. - Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender, is accused of fraudulently pledging risky loan portfolios to multiple banks. The fallout has led to significant write-downs at institutions like JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bancorp. -- The regional banks under pressure as this is developing. Seems as though there is some concern that poor underwriting and sloppy loan issuance (and oversight) is something again. ------- This is much more difficult to paper over or to rescue like the Bond valuation crisis a couple of years ago. ZERO Dated Options - Daily turnarounds, especially on Fridays - New studies showing that the zero date options push toward the end of the day is a big player - On a index with 35-40% of top 10 holdings in makeup - easier to push those names and then collect on the options.. - Friday 10/17 is a good example of hos that occurs.. --- Decliners outpaced advancers all day - Small cap down - mega cap up ----- As day progressed, squeezing continued - (partially due to Trumps comments that everything is going well with China - aka 180 degrees from the Friday before) Listener Question: - What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? - The phrase “Mar-a-Lago Accord” was coined by US money market wizard and previous Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Poszar back in June 2024 on an idea that the US could force countries to accept a weaker dollar and lower interest rates on their US Treasury investments in order to still be protected by the US security ... GM Earnings - GM stock rose more than 15% in trading Tuesday. The stock, which closed Monday at $58 per share, had its best day since 2020 and its second best day on the market since its 2009 emergence from bankruptcy. - Here’s how the company performed in the third quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG: -- Earnings per share: $2.80 adjusted vs. $2.31 expected -- Revenue: $48.59 billion vs. $45.27 billion expected -- Adjusted EBIT: $3.38 billion vs. $2.72 billion expected - GM also reduced the expected impact of tariffs this year to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, down from $4 billion to $5 billion. The automaker expects to offset about 35% of that impact. Meanwhile - Ferrari - Ferrari posted their worst trading day ever on last Thursday after the luxury carmaker updated its full-year and 2030 guidance and scaled back its electrification ambitions. - Analysts were disappointed by the new guidance, saying it fell short of expectations. - The Italy-based sports car manufacturer said at its Capital Markets Day, or CMD, event that it expected net revenue of at least 7.1 billion euros ($8.2 billion) this year, up from a previous forecast of more than 7 billion euros. - Net revenue is expected to be around 9 billion euros in 2030, and the company is targeting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, of at least 3.6 billion euros by 2030. Quantum Stocks - JP Morgan announced that it will invest $10B in 27 specific industries, including Quantum computing - that sent them flying again - RGTI, IONQ, QBTS - to the moon! Apple News - Apple and Formula 1 today announced a five-year partnership that will bring all F1 races exclusively to Apple TV in the United States beginning next year. - The partnership builds on Apple’s deepening relationship with Formula 1 following the global success of Apple Original Films’ adrenaline-fueled blockbuster F1 The Movie, the highest-grossing sports movie of all time. - United by a commitment to innovation and fan experience, the partnership sets the stage for Formula 1’s continued growth in the U.S. More Apple News - iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, research firm Counterpoint said on Monday. - The newer models outsold the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries, Counterpoint said in a report. - Sales of the base model iPhone 17 nearly doubled in China compared to the iPhone 16 during the same period, it added, with sales of the model rising 31% across the two markets. - Stock hits ATH on Monday and helps DJIA move up BIG Pharma Follw Up - Several pharmaceutical companies have said they will sell drugs direct to patients in the U.S. and offered discounts following President Donald Trump's calls to bring down drug prices and cut out "middlemen" like pharmacies, insurers and pharmacy benefit managers. - This is another blow to pharmacies Robbery! - Thieves in balaclavas broke into Paris' Louvre museum on Sunday, using a crane to smash an upstairs window, then stealing priceless objects from an area that houses the French crown jewels before escaping on motorbikes, officials said. The robbery raises awkward questions about security at the museum, where officials had already sounded the alarm about lack of investment at a world-famous site - They said it was likely the robbery was either commissioned by a collector, in which case there was a chance of recovering the pieces in a good state, or undertaken by thieves interested only in the valuable jewels and precious metals. Blame Game - Companies across the U.S. and Europe have been cutting staff, citing the impact of artificial intelligence. There may be more to the layoffs than meets the eye as firms are "scapegoating" the technology to take the fall for challenging business moves such as layoffs, according to one professor. Some companies that flourished during the pandemic "significantly overhired" and the recent layoffs might just be a "market clearance," the professor said. Is this the new normal? - The Dutch government has invoked control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, under its Goods Availability Act. - Following the announcement by The Hague, Wingtech’s Shanghai-listed shares plunged 10% to hit its max daily limit. - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, in an extraordinary move to ensure a sufficient supply of its chips remains available in Europe amid rising global trade tensions. - Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, specializes in the high-volume production of chips used in automotive,

  --------  

  1:05:32

  --------

  1:05:32

More Business podcasts

Trending Business podcasts

About DHUnplugged Podcast

DHUnplugged Podcast: Podcasts in Family