DHUnplugged Podcast

DOD – Disrupter Disrupters

China markets reopening after Lunar New Year

Mexico Cartel Wars

Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs

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Warm-Up

- The CTP for Caterpillar announced

- DOD - Disrupter Disrupters

- China markets reopening after Lunar New Year

- Mexico Cartel Wars (Jalisco)

Markets

- Mortgage Rates - looking good!

- Tariffs found illegal - that is not stopping anything

- Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs

- Monday's big drop and AI taking a bite out of stock prices

Tariffs

- First, who actually knows what is going on. 100% chaos

- Supreme court ruled illegal (6-3)

- 10% flat across all countries immediately added

- Wait a day and make that 15%

- FedEx seeks refund for illegal IEEPA tariffs imposed by Trump after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs exceeded authority

- Numerous lawsuits expected for IEEPA tariff refunds

- Apple has spent more than $3 billion on tariffs since President Donald Trump enacted his trade policies. What about that? (HOW TO FIGURE OUT WHO GETS THE REFUND)

--- Estimate that $175B tariffs have been collected alreay

- A group of 22 U.S. Senate Democrats on Monday introduced legislation that would require President Donald Trump's administration to fully refund within 180 days all of the revenue, with interest, collected from tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.

- The legislation would require the Customs and Border Protection agency, which collects tariffs at U.S. ports of entry, to prioritize small businesses.

- The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday

Stop The Presses

- After years of JCD's rants.......

- Apple will soon introduce MacBooks with touch screens

- Apple Inc.'s initial touch Macs will have the Dynamic Island at the center top of the display and OLED screen technology.

The new MacBook Pro models will have a refreshed, dynamic user interface that can shift between being optimized for touch or point-and-click input.

Europe Reacts

- "The current situation is not conducive to delivering 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides" in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year's trade agreement, the Commission said. "A deal is a deal."

- All active discussions are halted on any USA/Europe trade deal

The Potential Winners

- Brazil and China may be the winners here

- Chinese President Xi Jinping has a boost in bargaining power after the US Supreme Court invalidated Donald Trump's broad emergency tariffs, a key point of leverage over China.

- The removal of tariff threats will make it harder for Trump to press Xi for larger purchases of certain products and leaves him without a key weapon to strike back if Chinese negotiators make fresh demands.

- Xi's team will likely push harder for access to advanced semiconductors, the removal of trade restrictions on Chinese companies, and reduced US support for self-ruled Taiwan, according to Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University's Center for American Studies.

NVDA Earnings

- NVIDIA drops its fiscal Q4 2026 (ended Jan 2025) results tomorrow—another make-or-break moment for the AI trade.

- The bar is sky-high after years of blowout beats, but whispers of "peak AI" and slowing growth momentum have investors on edge.

--- Consensus Expectations :

----Revenue: ~$65.6–$66.1 billion (up ~67–68% YoY from last year's ~$39B; guided $65B ±2% in prior report)

------EPS (adjusted/non-GAAP): ~$1.50–$1.53 (up ~70–72% YoY from $0.89).

--------Gross margins: Targeting ~75% non-GAAP (holding strong despite supply chain noise).

-----------Key driver: Data Center segment expected to crush ~$58–$60B, fueled by Blackwell ramp and hyperscaler spend.

Home Depot Earnings

- The home-improvement retailer gained 2.7% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share on revenues of $38.20 billion.

- That exceeded the per-share earnings of $2.54 on revenues of $38.12 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG.

AMD News

- The semiconductor maker rose about 11% after it inked a multiyear deal with Meta to lend up to 6 gigawatts of its graphics processing units to artificial intelligence data centers.

- The cost of the deal is unclear, but the companies’ agreement includes a a performance-based warrant that could amount to up to 160 million of AMD shares, according to a statement dated Tuesday.

- Meta has committed to deploying up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of AMD's Instinct GPUs (high-end graphics processing units optimized for AI workloads) to power its massive AI data centers.

- Analysts estimate the GPU portion alone could be worth $60–$100+ billion over 5+ years

Mortgage Rates

- The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily, matching its lowest levels since 2022.

- Last year at this time the rate was 6.89%.

- A buyer putting 20% down on the median priced home, about $400,000 according to the National Association of Realtors, would have a monthly payment of $1,916 for the principal and interest. One year ago, that payment would have been $2,105, a difference of $189.

Life Insurance Record

- Manulife Financial Corp. sold a $300 million life insurance policy in Singapore, topping what Guinness World Records certified as the most valuable policy ever issued.

- The policy surpasses the previous record of $250 million, set by HSBC Life in Hong Kong in 2024. Manulife said in a statement Tuesday that the deal reflects growing demand from ultra-wealthy clients to preserve their assets.

- In Singapore over the past 12 months, Manulife has issued 25 individual policies each worth more than $50 million.

Bitcoin Rout

- Gemini said it was axing as much as a quarter of its staff and exiting the UK, European Union and Australia entirely.

- This week, it parted with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer, all in a single day.

- Its stock has fallen more than 80% from a post-listing high last year, collapsing its market value from a peak of almost $4 billion to under $700 million.

Over the Greenland

- USA sending a "hospital ship" over

- Trump's post on the ship came hours after Denmark's Joint Arctic Command said it had evacuated a crew member who required urgent medical treatment from a U.S. submarine in Greenlandic waters, seven nautical miles outside of Greenland's capital, Nuuk.

- Greenland said thanks but no thanks

So Long!

- U.S. investors are pulling money out of their own stock market at the fastest pace in at least 16 years as Big Tech returns fade and better-performing overseas markets look more attractive.

- In the last six months, U.S.-domiciled investors have pulled some $75 billion from U.S. equity products, with $52 billion flowing out since the start of 2026 alone, the most in the first eight weeks of the year since at least 2010

AI Disruption - DOD (Disruption of Disrupters)

- CrowdStrike -9.8% and other cybersecurity names under heavy pressure again as AI disruption fears build following Anthropic’s Claude Code release

- - Cybersecurity stocks are under broad pressure today, extending recent weakness following Friday's launch of Claude Code Security by Anthropic. Claude Code Security scans codebases for vulnerabilities and suggests software patches for human review, fueling a narrative that AI platforms may be moving more quickly into parts of the security workflow than investors had previously expected.

For cybersecurity, that raises concern around the forward demand outlook and competitive positioning, particularly in areas tied to application security, cloud security, identity workflows, and security operations automation, where AI-native tools could start to narrow perceived differentiation.

- The move suggests investors are still sorting through the implications for product overlap, pricing power, and competitive positioning as AI capabilities evolve quickly.

- IBM shares dropping toward lows of the session; attributed to news that Claude can automate cobol modernization

COBOL

(Common Business-Oriented Language) is a high-level, English-like programming language created in 1959 for business, finance, and administrative data processing. It is renowned for its verbosity, readability, and reliability, processing massive amounts of transactions on mainframe systems,, notes NetCom Learning and IBM. Despite being decades old, it remains critical in banking, insurance, and government sectors.

- It is estimated that 70-80% of the world's business transactions are processed by COBOL

Grok's Prediction about Future of OpenAi/ChatGPT

Scenario
Likelihood (My Estimate)
Key Factors
Outcome for OpenAI/ChatGPT

Thriving Leader
Medium (40%)
Sustained breakthroughs, partnerships (e.g., Microsoft), regulatory wins
OpenAI as AI giant; ChatGPT as ecosystem hub for agents/robots

Evolved Survivor
High (50%)
Adaptation to agents/hardware; mergers
Exists but rebranded; ChatGPT integrated into daily life tools

Decline/Acquisition
Low (10%)
Overcompetition, funding collapse
Absorbed or legacy; ChatGPT commoditized or obsolete

Quick check on Europe Shares

- European company earnings growth is picking up this reporting season against a tentatively improving economic backdrop, but wary investors are demanding more than solid results to justify sky-high valuations.

- Companies representing 57% of Europe's market capitalization have reported so far, achieving average earnings growth of 3.9% in the fourth quarter, ahead of estimates for a final result of a contraction of 1.1%

--- That is a big differential.... +3.9 vs -1.1

Iran Talks

- News over the weekend that Iran will look to discuss a variety of items and potentially get a deal.... energy, mining and aircraft

- Best guess: Iran will string us along like Russia is doing and we will say we have some kind of bogus deal.

--- There is some talk of US "going in" as we are building military presence. Supposedly there are some saying it could be a multi-week incursion.

- What is the plan - Regime change?

What is this?

- A divided Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that Americans can’t sue the U.S. Postal Service, even when employees deliberately refuse to deliver mail.

- By a 5-4 vote, the justices ruled against a Texas landlord, Lebene Konan, who alleges her mail was intentionally withheld for two years. Konan, who is Black, claims racial prejudice played a role in postal employees’ actions.

- Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for a majority of five conservative justices, said the federal law that generally shields the Postal Service from lawsuits over missing, lost and undelivered mail includes “the intentional nondelivery of mail.”

- So can ballots just be thrown in garbage for mail-ins for one party that will throw out another party's?

 

 

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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

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Self Created Valuation Boosts

Apple Announces new Podcast push

AI – A breakdown

Playing them like a fiddle – Warner Brothers

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- A NEW CTP just announced

- China releasing new AI models

- AI - A breakdown - we are on overload

- Big Employment news....

Markets

- Self Created Valuation Boosts

- Apple Announces new Podcast push

- Playing them like a fiddle - Warner Brothers

Quick Note - Going to rip up the playbook on something this week on TDI Podcast. Anyone who owns an annuity should listen to what is about to come on next Sundays show..... 

No Agenda...

Olympics - Anything to discuss?

MONEY FOR ALL

- The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared to about the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS.

- The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the average refund amount was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up from $2,065 about one year prior, the IRS reported Friday night.

- As of Feb. 6, the total amount refunded was more than $16.9 billion, up 1.9% compared to last year, according to the IRS release. That figure reflects current-year returns only.

- This is partly because there were excess-witholdings from last year on the rules changed and paycheck withholdings were not adjusted. This is a one time situation..

Emplyment

- 4.3%

- "Better" than expected payrolls number

- A major revision was released last Wednesday. Overall 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported. The total net change for the full year 2025 was revised down from +584,000 jobs to just +181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) — an average of only about 15,000 jobs added per month instead of ~49,000. This made 2025 one of the weakest years for job creation in recent non-recession periods.

- Employment levels were consistently overstated throughout 2025 by roughly 800,000 to over 1 million jobs, peaking around mid-year. For example:

By March 2025, the level was revised down by 898,000.

By December 2025 (preliminary), down by 1,029,000.

- Monthly changes were also adjusted downward in most cases (e.g., August's originally reported -26,000 became a larger loss of -70,000; September's +108,000 became +76,000).

- The revisions reflect normal annual benchmarking, but this one was unusually large (larger than the typical 0.2% average over the prior decade), likely due to factors like overestimation of business births or other data mismatches.

- In short, the data reveals that the U.S. labor market in 2025 was significantly softer than the monthly headlines suggested at the time — job growth was overstated by a substantial margin, painting a picture of a much weaker employment picture for the year.

AI Updates

- While U.S. markets have been focused on the impact of Anthropic and Altruist’s tools on software and financial services, China’s tech giants have released AI models this week that have shown advancements in robotics and video generation.

- Google is reporting that China's AI models are just MONTHS behind western models

- However - is this progress? In a video demo, Alibaba showed a robot with pincers for hands that appeared to be able to count oranges, pick them up and place them in a basket. It was also shown taking milk out of a fridge.

- Alibaba on Monday unveiled a new artificial intelligence model Qwen 3.5 designed to execute complex tasks independently, with big improvements in performance and cost that the Chinese tech giant claims beat major U.S. rival models on several benchmarks.

- Zhipu AI — which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology in Hong Kong said the model approaches Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 in coding benchmarks while surpassing Google’s Gemini 3 Pro on some tests.

- Shares of MiniMax also jumped Thursday after it launched its updated M2.5 open-source model with enhanced AI agent tools.

Grok Update

- Grok, Elon Musk's AI chatbot, has been gaining ground in the U.S. over the past months, data showed, even as it draws global censure and regulatory scrutiny after being used to generate a wave of non-consensual sexualized images of women and minors.

- U.S. market share of the tool rose to 17.8% last month from 14% in December, and 1.9% in January 2025, according to data from research firm Apptopia.

- Men are still the largest % users of Grok ~ 78% (down from 89% in April 2025)

AI Market Share

- ChatGPT's share slumped to 52.9% last month from 80.9% in January last year, while Gemini's grew to 29.4% from 17.3% over the same period.

AI Market Share

InfoGrapic and AI Understanding

- Have we gone through this?

- At its core, AI is technology that lets machines perform tasks that normally require human intelligence — things like understanding language, recognizing images, making decisions, or solving problems.

- Modern AI (especially since ~2022) is dominated by machine learning — systems that learn patterns from huge amounts of data instead of being explicitly programmed rule-by-rule.

- Inference is the "using" or "applying" phase of AI — when a trained model takes new input and produces an output / prediction / answer.

Contrast with training (the "learning" phase):

------ Training ? Like a student studying for years: very compute-heavy, expensive, done once (or rarely) on massive servers/GPUs, adjusts billions of parameters based on examples.

------ Inference ? Like the student taking a test or doing their job: much faster, cheaper, runs on your phone/laptop/cloud, uses the fixed knowledge from training to respond instantly.

- gentic AI takes regular AI (like chat models) to the next level: instead of just answering questions or generating text, these systems act autonomously to achieve goals with minimal human help.

"Agentic" comes from "agency" — the ability to make decisions, plan, use tools, take actions, adapt, and even learn from results — like a smart digital employee rather than just a smart answer machine.

AI Infographic

Last AI Item

- A shortage of memory chips is hammering profits, derailing corporate plans, and inflating price tags on various products, with the crunch expected to get worse.

- The fundamental reason for the squeeze is the buildout of AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI buying up large shares of memory chip production, leaving consumer electronics producers fighting over a dwindling supply.

- The resulting price spikes are causing concern, with some warning of "RAMmageddon" and others predicting that memory chip prices will go "parabolic", bringing lavish profits to some companies but painful prices to the rest of the electronics sector.

Here is something:

- Gallup will no longer track presidential approval ratings after nearly 90 years

- Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the Washington, DC-based management company began tracking the president's job performance 88 years ago.

- Gallup told USA TODAY it will no longer publish "favorability ratings of political figures," a decision it said "reflects an evolution in how Gallup focuses its public research and thought leadership."

- Gallup said the ratings are now "widely produced, aggregated and interpreted, and no longer represent an area where Gallup can make its most distinctive contribution."

- "Our commitment is to long-term, methodologically sound research on issues and conditions that shape people’s lives," the company wrote, adding that its work will continue through the Gallup Poll Social Series, the Gallup Quarterly Business Review, the World Poll and more.

- Seems like they are unable to SHAPE opinion due to social media etc.....?

Apple Podcast Update

- Big news!

- Apple on Monday announced that it will bring a new integrated video podcast experience to Apple Podcasts this spring.

- The move comes as video viewership continues to reshape podcasting. About 37% of people over age 12 watch video podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research.

- The update brings Apple Podcasts more in-line with its competitors Spotify, YouTube and now Netflix, which have increasingly leaned into video podcasting.

-“Twenty years ago, Apple helped take podcasting mainstream by adding podcasts to iTunes, and more than a decade ago, we introduced the dedicated Apple Podcasts app,” said Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of Services, in a statement. “

- By bringing a category-leading video experience to Apple Podcasts, we’re putting creators in full control of their content and how they build their businesses, while making it easier than ever for audiences to listen to or watch podcasts.”

M&A

- Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips.

- Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company’s common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027.

- The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement.

Inflation - This helps

- PepsiCo, will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results.

Miran - Moving

- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed.

- He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed board

No Biggie????

- There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room

- JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events.

- At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients’ heads during operations.

- Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient’s nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient’s skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured.

Cuba

- The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel

- Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems

- No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel

- This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out.

Dalio Warning

-  Legendary investor Ray Dalio said on Tuesday the world was “on the brink” of a capital war.

- He said central banks and sovereign wealth funds were already preparing for measures like foreign exchange and capital controls.

- "When money is weaponized using measures like trade embargoes, blocking access to capital markets, or using ownership of debt as leverage."

- “Capital, money, matters,” Dalio said Tuesday. “We’re seeing capital controls … taking place all over the world today, and who will experience that is questionable. So, we are on the brink — that doesn’t mean we are in [a capital war now], but it means that it’s a logical concern.”

- Could this be why gold and siver are being hoarded (physical assets over digital currency?

- Is China's edict to banks to diversify away from US Treasuries a sign?

Self Boosted Valuation

- Waymo is aiming to raise about $16 billion in a financing-round that would value it at nearly $110 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

- Alphabet would provide about $13 billion to the autonomous driving firm while the rest would come from investors including Sequoia Capital, DST Global and Dragoneer Investment Group, the report added.

- Soooooo - Waymo is a unit of Alphabet.... Alphabet providing 80% of the funding that boosts valuations..... Hmmmmmmmm

Warner Brothers

-  Warner Bros Discovery Inc is considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance Corp after receiving its amended offer.

- The Warner Bros board is discussing whether Paramount could offer a path to a superior deal, which may ignite a second bidding war with Netflix Inc.

- Paramount submitted amended terms that addressed several concerns, including covering a fee owed to Netflix and offering to backstop a Warner Bros debt refinancing.

Economics Coming Up

- Short Week - plenty of Reports

- Wednesday - Durable Goods, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes

- Thursday - Philly Fed, Initial Claims

- Friday: PCE, Personal Income and Spending, GDP for Q4 (3.6%)

----- New Home Sales, UMich Feb Final

 

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THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLAR

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

 

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)

Hang on – Wild ride here

Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!

Shakeup in Dietville

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Interactive Brokers 

Warm-Up

- Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)

- Need a stock for CTP

- Hang on - Wild ride here

- Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!

- Shakeup in Dietville

Markets

- Massive moved during the week -

- Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding

- DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time

- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!

- CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026

Superbowl and Superbowl ads

- Game review

- Any ad stick out?

- $10M per ad this year

- Half Time with Bad Bunny?

- Anthropic busting on OpenAi

Last Week!

- Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names.

- HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market cap

AI Ripping Through

- Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements

- First it was the software companies

- Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked

- Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial space

Earnings Season Update

- Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results.

- Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line)

- Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better)

- Nothing great,  like Goldilocks

Earnings Highlights

- Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back some gains amid broader tech volatility (e.g., down ~11–22% in parts of the week from peaks).

- AMD: Reported mid-week, beating EPS (~$1.53 vs. lower expectations) with solid data center growth (~39%). However, Q1 guidance disappointed relative to high expectations in the AI chip space. Shares sank dramatically — down ~15–17% the next day, with some reports noting up to 20%+ drops at points, contributing to broader chip sector pressure.

- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Reported beating on revenue (~$113.8B) and EPS (~$2.82), with strong core performance. But capex guidance for 2026 ($175–$185B, roughly double prior levels) sparked AI spending worries. Shares dipped post-earnings (down ~0.5–5% initially, flat to lower the next day, with some volatility pulling it below key moving averages).

- Amazon (AMZN): Reported after hours on February 5, with mixed results — EPS ~$1.95 (narrow miss vs. ~$1.97 expected), but solid overall. The big negative was a surprise $200B capex forecast for 2026 (well above expectations), tied to AI/cloud buildout. Shares plunged sharply — down ~7–10% in after-hours/extended trading, with Friday moves around -5–8% in some sessions.

Recent Tech CAPEX announcements

- Amazon (AMZN) — Guided to approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026 (a massive jump from ~$125–131 billion in 2025, with ~80% likely AI-related per analyst commentary). This was the largest single-company figure and a major surprise, contributing heavily to the week's "wild" reactions.

- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — Guided to $175–185 billion in capex for 2026 (roughly double the $91 billion spent in 2025, far above analyst expectations of ~$115–119 billion). Emphasis was on AI compute capacity, servers, data centers, and networking to meet demand for Gemini and cloud services.

- Meta Platforms (META) — Guidance from late January (but heavily discussed last week): $115–135 billion for 2026 (up significantly from ~$70–72 billion in 2025, potentially an ~87% increase).

- Microsoft (MSFT) — No new full explicit 2026 guidance in early February (fiscal year runs July–June), but recent quarterly run-rate and analyst projections put it around $97–145 billion (with some sources citing ~$105 billion or higher based on Q2 spending trends and signals of continued growth from prior levels of ~$88 billion in FY2025).

------!!!!Combined 2026 capex projected at $635–665 billion (low/high ends) or up to $650–700 billion in some reports — a ~60–74% increase from their collective ~$381 billion in 2025.

Market Reaction from all of this....

- Markets were a bit spooked on the Anthropic announcement earlier in the week - software sold off and set a sour mood

- Microsoft dumped pretty hard as the amount of spend was higher than anticipated, especially with some slower growth in Azure.

- Amazon took a beating on the increased spend they anticipate *(extra by $50B)

- BUT: Friday markets rallied as there was realization that the $200B spend by Amazon would seep into the economy and fuel infrastructure spending along with chips, tech etc.

Other Earnings of Interest

-  Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday in which the social media company beat on the top and bottom lines.

- The company said it expects first-quarter sales to come in the range of $595 million to $605 million, which is higher than Wall Street expectations of $577 million.

- Reddit also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program.

- Reddit gets about $250 million a year from OpenAi and Google to have your data for training their LLMs

While we are on the subject

- Friday, DJIA hit 50,000 - first time ever!

- Up 1,200 point of which approx 350 was from caterpillar and 280 was from Goldman Sachs

Hats off to WalMart

- Walmart Inc. shares pushed its market capitalization past $1 trillion on Tuesday for the first time ever|

- Big transformation over the pst year - Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience.

Google Bond Offering

- Issuing several tranches of bonds, denominated in Stirling - one as long as 100 years

- Would you buy that?

- The Google parent is set to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering on Monday — more than the $15 billion initially expected — and is also pitching investors on what would be its first ever offerings in Switzerland and the UK.

- The latter would include a rare sale of 100-year bonds, the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dotcom frenzy of the late 1990s

Fat Profits in Dietville

- Really interesting sequence of events happening...

- Hims launches compounded pill at prices as low as $49 per month

- Analysts cite questions on efficacy, legality of pill

- Hims' move shifts focus from Novo's strong Wegovy pill launch

- Broader obesity market whipsawed as pricing pressure rises

THEN..

- Hims and Hers Health shares dive 14% after hours on Friday (Down 25% on Monday)

- FDA cites concerns over quality, safety, federal law

- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it would take action against telehealth provider Hims & Hers, for its $49 weight-loss pill, including restricting access to the drug's ingredients and referring the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law.

AND....

- Eli Lilly last Wednesday posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and 2026 guidance that blew past estimates, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro soars.

- The pharmaceutical giant anticipates its 2026 revenue will come in between $80 billion and $83 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.

- Meanwhile, NOVO had a really bad outlook that took the shares down 13% after the report.

Japan Markets Soar

- Japanese stocks jumped to a record high Monday, leading gains in the region after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory.

- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported.

- Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped past 57,000 for the first time before paring gains to close 3.9% higher at 56,363.94, while the Topix also notched a record high, closing at 3,783.94, up 2.3%.

Employment Report?

- Government shutdown is forcing them to postpone again (Which is dumb)

- Number due this Wednesday

- Maybe because of this:U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009.

- At the same time, companies announced just 5,306 new hires, also the lowest January since 2009, which is when Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking such data.

- Also, job openings fell sharply in December to 6.54 million, to their lowest since September 2020. - Available jobs are down by more than 900,000 just since October.

- NO! Ai and advancements in tech have noting to do with this! NO NO NO

M&A

- Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips.

- Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company’s common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027.

- The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement.

Inflation - This helps

- PepsiCo (PEP.O), opens new tab will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results.

Miran - Moving

- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed.

- He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed board

No Biggie????

- There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room

- JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events.

- At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients’ heads during operations.

- Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient’s nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient’s skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured.

Cuba

- The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel

- Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems

- No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel

- This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out.

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WORST DAY EVER for SILVER

Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop

New Fed Chair named

Pausing on space

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Warm-Up

- WORST DAY EVER for SILVER

- Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop

- New Fed Chair named

- Pausing on space

Markets

- Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter"

- Deep dive into January economic results

- USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead

- ELON - PT Barnum move

Cold Snap

- On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923.

- Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets

- Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure.

- They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip.

- The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event.

Right on Schedule

- Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed?

- Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high

- Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike.

THIS!

- Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI  was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.”

- “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.”

Then

Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out.

- What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment?

- Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment

- GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK

Fungus - -Interesting

- Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity.

- While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors.

January Economic Review

Employment

— Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower.

— Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago.

— Long-term unemployment didn’t change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%.

— Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year.

— Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year’s levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply.

FOMC / Interest Rates

— The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

— Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target.

— Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait.

- Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike.

- The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing.

- Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place.

- Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us.

- Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase.

- Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair)

GDP & Federal Budget

— Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs.

— Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined.

— The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year.

Inflation & Consumer Spending

— Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November.

— Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year.

— The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing.

— Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024.

Housing

— Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low.

— Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago.

— New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year.

— New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms.

Manufacturing

— Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year.

— Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped.

— Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries.

Imports & Exports

— Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025.

— The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased.

— For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger.

Consumer Confidence

— Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December.

— Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk.

Earnings

— Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong.

— 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%.

— Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages.

— The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

— Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services.

— The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories.

— The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns.

— FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009.

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S3XY No More

- Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus).

- Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are?

- Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't?

- Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing.

But...

- Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much.

- With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly.

- Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla

- Tesla shares dropped after earnings

FED CHAIR PICK

- Drumroll: Kevin Warsh

- Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability

- Deficit reducer?

- More hawkish than market expected?

- Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning

And then...

- Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980.

-It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record.

- It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash.

- The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination.

- However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10%

- GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record

- Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago

- ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK

-- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely?

Fed Statement and Rates

- Fed out with statement - no change on rates

- Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong

- Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell term

Apple Earnings

- Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended.

- Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers’ iPhone demands.

- The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period.

- Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion.

- “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we’re seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said.

- Stock up slightly - no great moves....

Blue Origin

- Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies.

- The decision reflects Blue Origin’s commitment to the nation’s goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence.

- The pause in tourist flights grounds the company’s reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness.

- Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album)

 

 

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Silver and Gold – Still Going.

Big week for earnings.

Fed decision on Wednesday.

Nat Gas price exploding higher.

US Dollar drops hard over past few days.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm-Up

- What we learned from Davos

- President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off

- January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying

- S&P  500: All-time highs going into earnings

Markets

- Silver and Gold - Still Going

- Big week for earnings

- Fed decision on Wednesday

- Nat Gas price exploding

- US Dollar drops hard over past few days

Can't Keep Track Anymore

-Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year.

- In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS".

- South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February

- KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news

- S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments

Davos - 2026 - What we learned

- Not much

- Same bifurcated view of the world

- Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan"

- So, no tariffs

- (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....)

Gold and Silver

- Off to the races

- Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day

- Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move

- GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust)

- Gold above $5,000 per ounce

- - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up|

- USD weakness

Economy - Still Strong

- The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories.

- Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

- Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter.

Amazon

- Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan

- First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder

- CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues

---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point?

- Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce

- Company still has 1.5 million employees

Comeback?

- Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned.

- Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked

- Frontier tried

- Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked

Booz Cancelled

- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump’s tax records to The New York Times.

- The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.”

- Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department’s announcement.

- Why does Booz have tax records in the first place?

- Stock down 50% since end of 2024

Private Credit

- BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy

- The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025.

- This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter.

- The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025.

- Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33%

Zoom Communications

- Valuation of Anthropic stake

- The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet.

- From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln.

- This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo.

- Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth.

UNH and Health Stocks

- DOWN 20% today

- The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026.

- The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits.

- UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers:

- - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%.

- - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%.

Tech Earnings

Microsoft (MSFT)

Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)

- Wall Street Expectations:  Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion

- Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth

- Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure.

Meta Platforms (META)

Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)

- Wall Street Expectations:  EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion

- Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth

- Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy.

Tesla (TSLA)

Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)

- Wall Street Expectations:  EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion

- Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago

- Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand.

- Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap.

Apple (AAPL)

Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close)

Wall Street Expectations -  EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion

Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth

- This is Apple’s most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability.

Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter.

Company
Ticker
Report Date
Est. EPS
Key Focus Area

Microsoft
MSFT
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$3.92
Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending

Meta Platforms
META
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$8.17
Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance

Tesla
TSLA
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$0.45
Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates

Apple
AAPL
Thu, Jan 29 (AMC)
Varies
iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout

ServiceNow
NOW
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$0.88
Enterprise AI software adoption rates

IBM
IBM
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$4.28
Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance

*AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates)

Boeing

- The company’s airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts’ expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting.

- Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024.

The airplane manufacturer delivered 600 airplanes last year, up from 348 a year earlier.

Another MoonShot

- U.S. natural gas prices surged over 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since late 2022.

- It comes as Winter Storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power and forces mass flight cancellations.

- The National Weather Service has forecast wind chills as low as -50 degrees Fahrenheit (-45.56 degrees Celsius) across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week.

-Up 68% YTD

- Nat gas is used in a whole lot of things - electrical grid 43% is fueled by Nat Gas

Government - Not Again!

- Seems like Dems are threatening a shutdown again

- A partial U.S. government shutdown is set to begin on Friday, January 30, 2026.

- The Senate is expected to vote on a funding package to avert this shutdown, with delays from a winter storm pushing initial votes to at least January 27, 2026

- The issue is being exacerbated with the ICE / Minnesota issues

This is precious

- Ex-finance minister Noda currently co-heads largest opposition party

- He says that Japan unlikely to get international consent for intervention

- Yen, bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode, he says

- Government must vow to restore fiscal discipline to end yen fall, Noda says

- Japan must create environment allowing for steady BOJ rate hikes, he says

- THIS shows us all that the whole thing with these guys/gals is all political.

- NEVER EVER if he was in the role would he say anything like this.

 

 

 

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