DHUnplugged Podcast

PCE and inflation trends – single day concern

Earnings Season – Goldman, JPM

Eco Reports of historic proportion

Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm-Up

- Walking back - Waffling and Extensions

--- Blockade - not really

- Market Immunity

- Jesus.ai

- Reading Retreats (The New Silent Disco?)

Markets

- PCE and inflation trends - single day concern - PPI revised

- Earnings Season - Goldman, JPM

- Historic Eco Report

- Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

CONGRATS RORY! - back-to-Back Masters Champ

- Over $250M in tour winnings

Market Update

- Great week for markets as Operation obliteration is postponed

- - Weekend concerns and opening in the RED Monday as we get clarification

- Markets somewhat immune? Looking past?

- FWIW: Not much is moving thought the Straight....But who cares!

----- Markets made back all of the losses from the War! Nothing to worry about...

Historic!

- As of this month, we have officially hit a new historical floor.

- The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for April 2026 came in at 47.6, which is the lowest recorded value in the survey’s 70-plus-year history.

Consumer Sentiment

Fed Looking

- The Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to private credit due to a surge in redemptions and a rise in troubled loans in the industry.

- The Fed's queries are intended to assess the level of stress in the private credit industry and the potential for it to spill over to the wider financial system.

- The Treasury Department is also questioning the insurance industry about exposures to private credit, as part of a broader regulatory push to get a handle on the scale of the strains in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.

ECO - PPI

- PPI: Rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, well below the 1.2% consensus expectation

-  Follows a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February (from 0.7%)

Core PPI (excluding food and energy):

- Increased 0.1% in March, below the 0.4% consensus expectation

- Follows a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in February (from 0.5%)

--- Market talk:

-- -  Final demand services were unchanged, giving markets room to look through the energy-driven spike as likely temporary

Meanwhile...

- Dow Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are among the companies boosting prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

- The company said Monday that it will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins — common plastics found in packaging, films and containers — through at least May, according to a document viewed by Bloomberg.

- That increase includes a 30-cent-per-pound boost for April and plans for another 20-cent-per-pound hike next month, according to the notice.

Blockade

- President Donald Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.

-The US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan due to differences over the nuclear issue, according to Trump.

--- At first, it was a FULL blockade - then another walk-back (or is this just politics vs reality?)

- The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, according to US Central Command.

Goldman Earnings

- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $17.55 per share, $1.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $16.47; revenues rose 14.4% year/year to $17.23 bln vs the $16.99 bln FactSet Consensus.

- Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities were $4.01 billion, 10% lower than the first quarter of 2025, reflecting lower net revenues in FICC intermediation, due to significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenues in credit products, partially offset by significantly higher net revenues in commodities and currencies.

- Provisions for the first quarter of 2025 primarily reflected net provisions related to the credit card portfolio, which was transferred to held for sale in the fourth quarter of 2025.

--- Goldman is cleaning up and selling off some of the credit card portfolio (Apple Card)

---- We discussed that analysts had been raising guidance for companies into the print. GS rallied 16% since March - so maybe just sell-the-news event

Stocks: Earnings

- Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy to a sell, and the stock dropped about 4% on the news.

--- Goldman’s view is that while Best Buy should get a short?term boost in the first quarter—helped by people pulling forward PC purchases and getting bigger tax refunds—that strength may not last.

--------According to the analysts, once higher memory costs start working their way into laptop and computer prices, sales could come under pressure after Q1.

Blackrock Call

- Asset management giant BlackRock has raised its outlook for U.S. stocks, reasoning that contained impacts from the Iran war and strong corporate earnings will create a favorable backdrop.

- With earnings season just getting underway, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a collective 12.6% profit increase for the first quarter.

- But do we care what Blackrock says? Long only shop with $14T in ETFs

Stocks: Monday/Tuesday

-----Cruise line stocks were under pressure as higher energy costs and renewed concerns about demand came back into focus. Carnival dropped about 4%, Norwegian Cruise Line was down roughly 3%, and Royal Caribbean slid more than 2%.

-----Airlines moved lower for similar reasons. Rising jet fuel prices and softer demand expectations weighed on the group, with United Airlines falling more than 2.5%, while Southwest and Delta both declined around 2%.

--Tuesday - Follow through getting us at/above pre-war levels

Stocks: Mattress Consolidation:

- Leggett & Platt jumped about 9% after announcing it will be acquired by Somnigroup International, a bedding manufacturer. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $2.5 billion, and it’s expected to close by the end of 2026.

----Mattress Monopoly Now? Adding to  - Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm, Dreams

Stocks - Upgrades

- Toll Brothers, Pultegroup

— Shares of both stocks rose more than 1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the two homebuilders to outperform.

- - The investment firm said it’s time to buy the dip in the companies, believing the bad news is already priced in and that both Toll Brothers and Pultegroup could manage macroeconomic headwinds better than some of their peers.

Pope Leo

- WEAK on crime and terrible for Foreign Policy say President Trump

-- Is the Pope involved in criminal /  police issues ?

Jesus Update

- Aside from the Jesus imagery with Trump as Jesus this weekend (Trust social post - then deleted)

- At $1.99 per minute, the tech company Just Like Me is taking that concept to talk to Jesus to a new level.

-----Users of the platform can join video calls with an avatar of Jesus generated by artificial intelligence.

------- Like other religious AI tools on the market, it offers words of prayer and encouragement in various languages.

----------With the occasional glitch, it remembers previous conversations and speaks through not-quite-synced lips.

Reading Retreats

- What it is: Paid reading retreats where people travel to quiet, upscale settings to read their own books—mostly in silence—alongside strangers.

- The price: Typically $1,000+ for a long weekend, often selling out months in advance.

- Why it works: People are burned out by screens and distractions and are paying for structure, silence, and protected time to focus.

- Social without pressure: It offers light community—being alone together—without forced conversation or networking.

- Cultural tailwinds: Fueled by BookTok, wellness travel, and nostalgia for slower, analog experiences, turning reading into a premium lifestyle activity.

Of Interest

- Delta Air Lines said Wednesday it will “meaningfully reduce” its capacity growth plans in the near term. AFTER BULLISH COMMENTS DAYS EARLIER

- Delta joined United and JetBlue in hiking its checked bag fees this week as jet fuel costs surge. PRICE WILL NEVER COME DOWN

- Delta said its fuel bill will be $2 billion higher this quarter because of the spike in costs.

- The carrier also reported first-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. BY THE WAY>>>>>

JAYNA - AKA China

- China’s factory?gate prices rose 0.5%, the first increase in more than three years.

-  Consumer prices increased 1% year over year in March, falling short of economists’ expectations.

- Gasoline prices jumped 11.1% from the prior month, even as Beijing tried to limit fuel price increases.

- Economists warn the spike in input costs could lead to “bad inflation,” putting added pressure on manufacturers that are already operating with thin margins.

Health Breakthrough

- Revolution Medicines said its pancreatic cancer drug daraxonrasib succeeded in a Phase 3 trial.

- RevMed said its drug almost doubled the typical length of survival and slashed the risk of death by 60% versus chemotherapy.

- The company said it will soon seek FDA approval using a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, which grants a quicker review.

- It is a small?molecule oral oncology drug, taken as a daily pill, not chemotherapy or immunotherapy.

- Stock up nicely on the news...

China PPI

- China’s factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years while consumer inflation moderated in March, amid a surge in oil prices as the Iran war upended global energy markets.

- The producer price index grew 0.5% from a year earlier, the first growth since September 2022, ending the longest deflationary streak in decades. For the first quarter, the PPI fell 0.6% year on year.

China PPI and CPI

Intel

- Intel’s stock had a ninth straight winning day on Monday, up 58% over that stretch.

- Shares of the semiconductor company are soaring after a series of announcements and major partnerships with Google and Elon Musk.

- CPUs are seeing a resurgence as agentic artificial intelligence continues to gain traction.

 

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A surprising payroll report

The quick war – not over just yet

Food inflation coming

Economics – a bright spot and surprising report last week

Space issues – Space sewage

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Warm-Up

- A surprising payroll report

- The quick war - not over just yet

- Food inflation coming

- Economics - a bright spot and surprising report last week

- Space issues - Space sewage

- 8PM - End of Civilization?

Markets

- March sucked - that is the report

- 1st quarter results are in - we will discuss

- OIL - UP - WTI and Brent rising - its only transitory

- Market Manipulation - say it ain't so!

Oil

- Interesting note that WTI is trading higher than Brent - unusual

- WTI ~ $116  Brent ~ $109

- Brent for immediate delivery in Asia $140 as being bid up for purchase NOW

- WTI may have an edge because it is available and buyers also stocking up on that...

- Europe running out of Jet Fuel - USA sending over a supply - also unusual

BUT - 8PM ET - End of Civilization?

- Or last minute miracle - with mystery negotiations

- Pakistan requesting 2 week pause - with movement of ships through Strait

- YES, we have a 2-week pause - no kidding! Crude down 15%, market indices up 2%

---- Wait - Negotiations will start Friday... (Friday?)

In Process - In Theory - Framework

- OPEC+ agrees in principal theoretical framework to increase output

- OPEC+ eight members to raise quotas by 206,000 bpd for May

Apple Foldable Flop

- Apple shares sunk 2% after reports that the company’s foldable iPhones may face delays.

- Nikkei Asia reported that the company is facing engineering challenges in what would be the iPhone-maker’s first foldable device.

- Engineering problems they say....

Closing this Discussion

- Bored with this....But...

- OpenAI announced it closed its record-breaking funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.

- The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company previously announced.

- OpenAI said it extended participation to investors through bank channels for the first time and raised $3 billion from individual investors.

The 1st Quarter Misery

- Microsoft lost almost a quarter of its value in the first three months of the year, its steepest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.

- Concerns about the company include the return on investment for artificial intelligence build-outs and the adoption of Copilot.

- The company’s stock plunged 23% in the first quarter, a steeper drop than any of its tech peers or the Nasdaq,

- Microsoft’s earnings multiple hasn’t been this low since the fourth quarter of 2022, when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT.

- SAAS compaies got crushed - Adobe, Atlassian and ServiceNow all down more than 30% YTD

- Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilders had tough quarter

1st Quarter Happiness

- Energy Sector up 30%

- Materials up 10%

- Utilities up 10%

- Oil up almost 100%

- EM still positive for 2026

Latest Eco

- Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000.

- The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.

- Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021.

-Health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs.

- March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% vs. 54.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior 56.1%

- - Overall, there is not much going on good or bad - just the same in US Economics

------ Next couple of months will show inflationary pressures

Inflation

- Tomatoes, strawberries, asparagus, veggies in general are moving higher

- - - Tomato prices are rising, with significant increases driven by a 17%–21% tariff on Mexican imports, labor shortages, and supply tightening

- Experts warn these factors could increase prices by up to 50% for consumers, especially during winter months, and recent reports indicate continued shortages and high costs through early April 2026

- Florida frost in Q1 and now UREA shortages during spring planing will cause even more problems and pricing pressure (inflationary)

No View

- Satellite imaging firm Planet Labs said on Saturday it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the U.S. government.

- Planet Labs will release images only on case-by-case basis for urgent or public interest needs

- Satellite imagery of hard-to-reach areas useful for news media, researchers

- Other providers like Vantor apply their own controls but were not contacted by U.S. government

- Interesting potential for an edge in war if we can see them and they and they can't see us

Dems probing stock trades

- Two Democratic U.S. senators on Thursday called on Wall Street's top regulator and a Defense Department watchdog to prevent and investigate possible insider trading by government officials following a spate of market activity seemingly timed to President Donald Trump's announcements.

- Reuters and others have reported that major moves over the last year in equity, commodities and prediction markets are consistent with the possibility that traders had advance knowledge of Trump's announcements concerning the war with Iran, tariffs and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, among other examples.

- Repubs only care if Pelosi does trades and Dems only care if Trump related trades

The Final Frontier

- The Universal Waste Management System toilet on the Orion crew capsule has been giving the Artemis II crew some issues during their mission to the moon.

- The toilet's problems included a pump that needed extra water to work and a potential buildup of ice blocking the vent nozzle that allows wastewater to drain out into space.

--- For a while there was no urination allowed only space poops since on different disposal systems

- NASA was able to fix the issue by positioning the Orion so that the toilet vent would "bake" in the sun and melt the ice, and the crew is now cleared to use the toilet for all purposes.

---More: The UWMS comes equipped with a funnel and hose for urination, and there is a seat with a hole for bowel movements.

-------Since the astronauts are in microgravity, the toilet relies on air flow that pulls waste into the toilet and ensures the capsule stays clean.

-------------The astronauts can also use footstraps and handles to stay in position.

Earnings Season

- Analysts have been increasing their earning estimates into the quarter - which is unusual as usually see declines into the prints (so that companies have easier hurdle)

- The S&P 500 is expected to deliver 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains.

- Revenue is expected to grow 9.7%, the strongest pace since Q3 2022.

- But what about the outlook?????????????????

Mag 7 Earnings expectations

- Of course The Magnificent 7 remain central to earnings growth and market direction.

Nvidia (~127.7%) and Tesla (~124.9%) are driving outsized earnings expansion.

Apple (~19.0%) and Microsoft (~17.2%) show solid but more normalized growth.

Meta (~3.4%) and Amazon (~3.2%) are slowing, while Alphabet (~-6.9%) is expected to decline.

Growth within mega-cap tech is becoming less broad and more concentrated in a few names.

Just In

- Remember in January with Medicare Advantage and Part D payment plans from governments were being cut?

- Insurance company stocks got smacked...

- Expectations were for a 4% or so raise and it came in flat

- ON DHUNPLUGGED - (1/27/2026) we discussed that this was a game and would come back when finalized inline with expectations  to show how great the benefit is to Medicare recipients (voters)

---- We added United HealthCare (UNH) to the Weekly Stock Pick game as a rare Purple pick

- Now, final numbers announced and  are projected to result in a net average increase of 2.48%, or over $13 billion in additional MA payments to plans in CY 2027. This expected increase includes consideration of the various elements that impact MA payments, such as growth rates of underlying costs, 2026 Star Ratings for 2027 quality bonus payments, and risk adjustment updates.

- UNH and other names int he sector moving up nicely on the news

- (Potential related stocks: UNH, CVS, MCK, CI, HUM, CNC, ALHC, MOH, ELV, THC, UHS, CYH, HCA, OSCR)

France Gold

- France’s central bank has sold off the last of the gold it held in the United States Federal Reserve and replaced it with higher quality bars in Paris, taking advantage of rising prices to make nearly €13 billion as it upgrades its holdings.

- Moved all holding back to France

 

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March is the WORST month for markets in a long time.

International equities getting killed

Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down

The markets Trump Card no longer works…

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm-Up

- Trump may have played the wrong cards (Making up stories for markets)

- Oil prices on the move - Monday highest close yet for this cycle ($105)

- For Real ? End of War?

Markets

- WORST month in a long time

- International equities getting killed

- Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down

Happy Passover and Happy Easter!

- Made a brisket 2 ways!

One Food item and then back to business

- New trend at restaurants: " We do not use any seed oils - no, we use beef tallow.....

- Reaction from crowd and recent FDA

- Sunflower, Canola, Soybean (unsaturated is better....)

Monday Morning Again

- 7:30am Monday Morning - More BS for the markets - Talks going great...

---- Problem is that there was a severe threat that if nothing changes by next week- Iran is going to get pummeled

------Iran strikes several key targets in Middle east - Aluminum prices spike, oil prices moves higher....

- It does not look like Iran is too concerned. (Complacency or Strength?)

- Unfortunate that markets are not reacting well - (Wolf?)

- So we have until the day after Easter?

Tuesday....

- Iran's State Media says Iran's President spoke with EU Council on the phone; says Iran is "prepared to end war" with guarantees against further attacks; EU Council President has confirmed this call -

- Just moments after WTI hit $105... quickly came down to $102+/-

- Everything turned higher - green across the board

More Crazy Records

- BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky added, "At 12:41 ET today, that NYSE TICK Index hit +2329, the highest on record back to 1993. This index measures the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus those trading on a down tick at any given time of day.

- For perspective, there are ~2400 stocks on the NYSE, which means nearly 100% of stocks traded on an uptick, simply unprecedented.

- Prior high was 4/9/2025 when President Trump put a 90-day pause on tarrifs

---- More - S&P was up 9.5% that day and then sold off 6.5% over the next seven days

Hormuz Tolls/Permits

- Ships would have to pay for “safe passage” through the strait

- Fees reported as high as $2 million per vessel for some tankers

- Mandatory clearance and vetting by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

- Escort through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor, primarily near Larak Island

- Only “non-hostile” vessels would be eligible—a term Iran defines politically

Hedge Funds and Money Managers

- Plans continue - equities coming out to cash

- Hedges applied

- H&C is doing the same thing for portfolios - plans for what/if and action ahead of further breakdown

--- There is discussion that this sets up for a nice reversal (when/if) ceasefire

------- HOWEVER - damage has been done...

More....

- Heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the Iran war.

- Hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, driven by short sales, with net disposals across all major regions and short exposure in macro products in Europe reaching a 10-year high.

- Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam, with CTAs estimated to be buyers in every scenario over the next month.

Capitulation of More To Come?

GS Prime Book

Market Metrics

FRIENDLY REMINDER

- It is Tax season - Tax returns due 4/15

- IRA deposits due by 4/15

Food Deal

- Sysco Corp. is acquiring Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt in a deal that will create one of the largest food-service groups in the US.

- Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, with the company's existing management team staying in place.

- The deal will give Sysco access to the higher-margin and growing cash-and-carry channel, with the combined company expected to have increased purchasing efficiencies and lower prices for customers.

- This looks like a smart deal - gives Sysco new footprint and distribution

Emerging Markets

- According to Bloomberg: The Middle East war risks ending a run of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets and could trigger a new downgrade cycle as it fuels inflation and tightens financial conditions.

- A prolonged Iran conflict could tilt the balance back toward downgrades, reversing the past three years when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets and implemented fiscal reforms.

- The inflation shock and tighter financing conditions will weigh on all countries, according to S&P Global Ratings Director Ravi Bhatia, as higher oil prices boost revenues for exporters and strain importers.

- The shift would mark a reversal from the past three years, when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets, implemented fiscal reforms and regained market access after the pandemic triggered widespread defaults and rating cuts.

- A prolonged Iran conflict could now tilt the balance back toward downgrades.

Oil Pries Factor

- Oil prices closed at the highest levels in 3 year on Monday

Market Metrics

In Stupid News

- Former world number one Tiger Woods was arrested on a charge of driving under the influence after his Land Rover rolled over on a two-lane road near his Jupiter Island home in Florida on Friday afternoon, the Martin County Sheriff's Office said.

- Woods had been overtaking a work truck pulling a trailer at high speed when he clipped the back of it, causing his vehicle to roll onto its driver's side, Sheriff John Budensiek told a press conference.

- Tiger crawled out of the passenger door before law enforcement officers arrived. A breathalyzer test at Martin County Jail returned no trace of alcohol, with investigators believing his impairment was drug or medication-related.

- Woods charged with DUI, property damage and test refusal (Woods refused to submit to a urine test, an offense that carries a separate charge under Florida law. No injuries were reported to Woods or the driver of the other vehicle.)

- Breathalyzer showed no alcohol; impairment believed drug-related

- Woods released after spending eight hours in jail

Private Credit - Now Blaming ... Private Credit

- Private credit industry execs are blaming the industry for not explaining to retail about lock-ups and liquidity.

- That is dumb - clearly easy to understand that you cannot get your money unless allowed by the investment firm

- - Here is the fact - they would have never got $ from most retinal if they told them they could not get their money readily - so they glossed over it.

USPS Surcharge

- The U.S. Postal Service plans to impose its first-ever surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel and transportation, as the agency looks for ways to stabilize its finances.

- The 8% surcharge will begin on April 26th

Meta Glasses

- Meta announced on Tuesday that it’s launching two Ray-Ban smart glasses that are designed for prescription wearers.

- While many people already use Meta glasses with prescription lenses, the company says these new ones support nearly all prescriptions and are built to better serve people who rely on all-day eyewear.

Wearables

- Whoop, the fitness and health tracking wearable company, has closed a $575 million Series G funding round at a $10.1 billion valuation — nearly triple its last reported valuation of $3.6 billion — in a deal that brings together sovereign wealth funds, major health institutions, and some of the world’s most recognizable athletes.

- The round was led by several VC groups, soverign wealth funds as well as

THEFT

- Cisco has suffered a cyberattack after threat actors used stolen credentials from the recent Trivy supply chain attack to breach its internal development environment and steal source code belonging to the company and its customers.

- A source, who asked to remain anonymous, told BleepingComputer that Cisco's Unified Intelligence Center, CSIRT, and EOC teams contained the breach involving a malicious "GitHub Action plugin" from the recent Trivy compromise.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

ANNOUNCING THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN

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Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

 

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE!

Correction in some areas and sectors.

Crude oil DROPS after “good” talks and a deal brewing with Iran.

Airports are a mess.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Warm-Up

- JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE

- Need a new CTP

- Airports are a mess

- Not Kosher - Futures moves

Markets

- From the Brink....All is good?

- Correction in some areas and sectors

- US Dollar Rises, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Drop

- Crude oil DROPS after "good" talks and a deal brewing with Iran - reversing all of the above

JCD UPDATE

- AH waiting by the microphone on a Tuesday in March - - no John... 9pm, 9:05, 9:15pm...

- Health update etc...Can we get the story?

- Thoughts on John S. Dvorak (Mimi on No Agenda) - Family backup!

Market Update

- Small-Caps taking the brunt of the selling

- Russell 2000 small-caps are down 10% from their high - an official correction

-- Interestingly the R2000 is still up this year by about 2%

- Stocks up on Monday after President Trump says intense negotiations over weekend and postpones targeted attacks for 5 days (after giving a 48 hour ultimatum)

Manipulation? Say it ain't so...

- Dateline Monday morning...

- Futures took a leg down pre-market - even after Friday (after close) President Trump said he was looking to wind down the Iran affair

- At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume.

- A similar pattern was observed in oil markets.

- Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social.

- Futures on DJ up 1,000 and oil down 89%

--- Were there really conversations and negotiations over the weekend?

A Few Leftovers that need to be discussed

Private Credit Again

- All of a sudden they are admitting there is a problem.....

- Blackstone Inc. approved redemptions of a record 7.9% from its flagship private credit fund, totaling about $3.8 billion.

- Redemption requests have increased across multiple private credit funds in recent quarters.

- Investor unease is being driven by concerns over the private credit asset class, particularly exposure to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption.

- According to Hugh Chung, CIO of Endowus, Blackstone’s experience suggests these concerns are asset-class wide, not limited to a small group of managers.

- Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms, driven by rising defaults on loans to software companies.

- Rowan emphasized that the shakeout is unlikely to be short-term, calling it foreseeable and predictable, and underscoring the importance of disciplined underwriting and strong risk management.

- He argued that investors should prefer having credit risk reside within private markets firms, rather than on bank balance sheets backed by government-insured deposits, which can amplify systemic risk.

- LATEST: Apollo is curbing redemptions from one of their biggest Private Credit funds.

Michael Gayed: Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch

PRIVATE CREDIT

More OpenAI Funding

- Amazon invested $50 billion, Nvidia invested $30 billion and SoftBank invested $30 billion in the round, OpenAI said in a release Friday.

- The investment boosts OpenAI to a $730 billion pre-money valuation, which marks a big jump from its $500 billion valuation in a secondary financing in October.

- The will use some of the money to expland and buy more chips and cloud from NVDA and AMZN (? Circular?)

MORE ON THE CIRCULAR SHAM

- OpenAI said it is expanding its existing $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services by $100 billion over the next eight years.

-  AWS will also serve as the exclusive third-party cloud distribution provider for OpenAI’s enterprise platform Frontier, which it unveiled earlier this month.

AI and Where we stand

- Can we talk about Anthropic? Is the Government going to crush Claude?

- What is our Go-to AI bots?

- What stage are we at right now? LLMs > Infernce>Agentic

- - What comes after Agentic

Netflix OUT

- Last week, Netflix exited the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery after a competing bidder submitted a superior offer.

- The decision followed pre-planned bidding scenarios, with co CEO Ted Sarandos saying the company knew exactly how to respond once the higher offer emerged.

- Sarandos said the Paramount deal is likely to drive significant cost-cutting, including roughly $16 billion in reductions and thousands of job losses.

- He emphasized that Netflix will continue investing in its business and explore new ways to collaborate with theater owners, rather than pursuing large acquisitions.|

- Stock rose nicely on the news

Tariff Refund Update

- You are screwed....

-- Trump administration seems hell-bent on keeping our money

Airlines

- After a rather bullish commentary from Delta last week....

-  United Airlines is cutting more unprofitable flights over the next two quarters as it prepares for a prolonged period of high jet fuel prices due to the Iran war, even as strong travel demand has allowed U.S. carriers to raise fares.

Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo the airline is preparing for oil to rise as high as $175 a barrel and remain above $100 until the end of 2027.

- At those levels, United's annual fuel bill would rise by about $11 billion, more than twice the profit it earned in its "best year ever," he said.

- Ticket prices going up!

Gas Prices

- Have you seen diesel prices?

- > $5 gallon on average across the U.S.

-- Implications beyond

--- Let's discuss the similarities to the 1973 oil embargo. (Barry switching license plates)

- 1973–1974 ? Arab oil embargo (the classic “1970s oil embargo”)

- 1979 ? Second oil shock caused by the Iranian Revolution (not an embargo, but another major supply shock)

Even So - Fedex

- FedEx Corp. raised its full-year profit forecast, with adjusted earnings expected to be $19.30 to $20.10 a share for the fiscal year.

- The company's shares climbed after the announcement, with the stock advancing about 23% this year through Thursday's close.

- FedEx does not expect the war in the Middle East to have a direct material effect on its business, but the broader consequences, including higher energy prices and volatile shipping patterns, are adversely affecting the global economy.

- In fact, company raised its full year outlook.....

--- Not a material effect???

Bad People

- SuperMicro Co-Founder Charged!

- Super Micro shares sank 28% last Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its co-founder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China. (NVDA chips)

- The U.S. Justice Department charged Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei Sun with running a scheme to route U.S.-made servers through Taiwan to Southeast Asia.

- The defendants allegedly used a Southeast Asian company as a middleman to place orders for high-end servers containing restricted Nvidia H200 and Blackwell chips. The equipment was then repackaged into unmarked boxes and diverted to China.

- To evade U.S. audits and customs inspections, the individuals allegedly created thousands of "dummy" servers and used a hair dryer to remove and reattach serial number labels from genuine servers to the fake ones.

--- Soooo, only 3 people did all of this?

Amazon Phone

- Amazon's new phone project codenamed 'Transformer'

- Focus on AI integration, Alexa features, and mobile personalization

- Here is what we know:

-------It is a smartphone, not a wearable or accessory

- It is AI-centric, with Alexa deeply integrated

- It is meant to act as a personalized, always-on gateway into Amazon’s ecosystem (shopping, Prime Video, Prime Music, services like Grubhub)

- It is being built inside Amazon’s Devices & Services group by a skunkworks team called ZeroOne, led by former Xbox architect J Allard

OpenClaw

- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says OpenClaw could be the next ChatGPT as AI shifts from answering questions to taking action.

- Jensen said : Nvidia is building security around the technology with NemoClaw to enable safe and scalable adoption of AI agents.

- Project OpenClaw: “It is now the largest, most popular, the most successful open-sourced project in the history of humanity,”

- OpenClaw is an open-source autonomous AI agent platform that goes beyond traditional chatbots.

-----Instead of answering questions, these agents can complete tasks, make decisions, and take actions with minimal input from users.

- Use case: Prompt to study images of a kitchen, learn design tools, iterate ideas to learn how to design a kitchen

------- Jensen says: “Every carpenter can now be an architect. Every plumber will become an architect. We are going to elevate the capabilities of everyone”

---- What happens to the architects?

Something....

- One of the hardest hit countries in all of this mess has been South Korea

- ~70% of South Korea’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East - Most of that oil transits the Strait of Hormuz

- Margin calls kicked in as high margin debt with heavy retail participation

- Won weakened sharply (17-year low)

- Korea economy is dependent on global demand and stable energy prices

- South Korea often leads sell-offs as it is the purest RISK ON market in Asia

---- SOOOOO, if this thing ends quickly, there is a potential of EWY to move up again....

 

 

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Exploring Bogus oil prices

Hold cow – look at what Gemini and JSD can do…

Markets needed good news – Correlation high

Fed on hold?

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Warm-Up

- Bogus Oil Prices

- Look at what Gemini and JSD can do...

- Markets needed good news - Correlation high

- Fed on hold?

- JCD LIMERICK!

Markets

- Did we just correct?

- Inflation - Eco that matters

- Manipulation in Oil - Land?

John Dvorak Jr. - Guest 

- UPDATE ON JCD

- AH Spoke with JCD Saturday....

Oil Prices - Bogus?

- The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100.

- Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect?

- But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation.

- Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75)

Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas?

Gas Prices

More Manipulation

- The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said.

- US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?)

- Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that.

- Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008

----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline.

------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse.

---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removed

Inflation and ECO

- PCE Prices stay elevated

- GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday.

- The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%.

- The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.

Eco Table

Oil Models...Very Cool

- JSD - Explain

- https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804

Department of Defense, err War, is hiring

- The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit?

- This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???)

----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations.

- Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil????

--- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense)

Did you know?

- 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar

- Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally

- South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically

-  Semiconductor manufacturing

- - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes).

- - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers.

-- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning.

- - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability.

- - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs.

INDIA! Running out of Gas

- Does it matter?

- India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil

- Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation

- BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India?

-- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in India

Back to this...

- AI not causing job losses

- WHAT ABOUT META?

- Meta’s stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending.

Drone Warfare

- New Warfare fought like games

- Ender's Game Movie

- Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet)

Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet)

Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds)

Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range)

--- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/Russia

Gaming Industry

- DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now

- Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales

- Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games

- Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU)

- Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles

- Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase

- Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M)

- AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside

- Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Target Earnings

- Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer’s earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump.

-  Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected

- Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected

- Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $7.50 to $8.50. Its adjusted earnings per share for the most recent full year were $7.57.

- Shares up 7% in a piss poor tape

 

 

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There is a tech pundit whose name be John,

Whose sharp takes went late into dawn.

He hit pause for some care,

But with grit (and repair),

Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong.

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