DHUnplugged Podcast

SpaceX IPO coming – huge increase in valuation over past 3 months Happy Hanukah – Eight Crazy Nights Now Kevin AND Kevin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Last Chance for CTP Cup 2025 participants - Happy Hanukah - Eight Crazy Nights - Sad News - Rob Reiner - Fed decision is out.... - Overdue eco reports coming this week Markets - Oracle still problematic - SpaceX IPO coming - huge increase in valuation over past 3 months - Another Bankruptcy - cleaning up is not good business - Oh my - Now Kevin AND Kevin - Weight loss game continues - One thing saved for last - a doozie... Tesla -  - All time High - Prospect of Robotaxi - Even though sales hitting multi-year lows Wall Street Never Sleeps? - Nasdaq files to extend trading to 23 hours on weekdays - Banks concerned about investor protections, costs, liquidity, volatility risks of nonstop trading - Proponents argue round-the-clock trading benefits global investors - That may create some additional volatility potential SpaceX - SpaceX aims for a potential $1.5 trillion market cap with an Initial Public Offering in 2026, which could become the largest IPO in history - July 2025 tender valuation was $400B - Dec 14th (4 months later) $800B - Starlink is the primary money winner of this deal - Tesla shares climbing even with nothing behind it - seemingly in sympathy for this IPO ---- TESLA does not have ownership of SpaceX - OH - this could be the reason....U.S. deliveries dropped significantly in November—the lowest since early 2022—but this weakness has been overshadowed by the enthusiasm for autonomy. Rob Reiner - A son of legendary Hollywood director Rob Reiner and his wife, producer Michele Singer Reiner, Nick Reiner, is being held on suspicion of murder following their deaths, according to Los Angeles Police Department Chief Jim McDonnell. He’s being held on $4 million bail. - Citing law enforcement sources and family friends, ABC News reported on Monday that Nick Reiner had recently returned to live at his parents' South Chadbourne Avenue home. The move was described as a temporary arrangement intended to help him stabilize. - Not going to discuss the Truth Social post about this tragedy HEADLINE ALERT - "Copper could hit ‘stratospheric new highs’ as hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues" - Copper has gone from 5.77 to 5.30 (July to today) - 6 Tops at this price since 2011 - Not seeing this as per the headline - seems like a Hunt Brothers special from the 1980s - CORNERING THE MARKET ---1980 - Silver went from $11 to $50 then crashed, bankrupting the Hunt Bros - after COMEX changed rules forcing them to cover positions Bankruptcy - After 35 years, the maker of the Roomba robot vacuum filed for bankruptcy protection late Sunday night. Following warnings issued earlier this year that it was fast running out of options, iRobot says it is entering Chapter 11 protection and will be acquired by its contract manufacturer, China-based Picea Robotics. - The company says it will continue to operate “with no anticipated disruption to its app functionality, customer programs, global partners, supply chain relationships, or ongoing product support.” - Remember that Amazon  - The Amazon buyout of iRobot, maker of Roomba, was announced in 2022 for $1.7 billion but ultimately failed in January 2024 due to significant regulatory pushback, primarily from the EU, over anti-competitive concerns. -- Amazon walked away with a $94 million termination fee Fed Pick - President Donald Trump said Friday that Kevin Warsh has moved to the top of his list as the next Federal Reserve chair, though Kevin Hassett also remains in contention, according to the Wall Street Journal. - Interesting that this comes days after Hassett said that we would not let outside suggestions influence his voting - ---In addition to putting heavier weight on Warsh getting the job, Trump repeated an assertion he has made in the past that the Fed chair ought to consult the president about interest rate decisions. - Also of interest, prediction markets had Hassett at 95% probability - now it moved to 50% - big payday for people in the know. Housing Prices - Average home price is DOWN on  year-over-year basis - First time on national level since 2024 - Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher --- Houses are on market longer - - Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they’re down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%. More Hosing Related -  Zillow shares plunged more than 9% on Monday on worries that the online real estate platform could have a big new competitor: Google Search. - Google appears to be running tests on putting real estate sale listings into its search results. Overdue Eco  - Black Hole - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday releases its long-awaited combined employment reports for October and November, but a number of key details will be missing after the government shutdown prevented data collection, including October's unemployment rate, resulting in the first-ever gap in that critical data series since inception in 1948. - NICE JOB GANG! - Some of the data will be estimated. - It said it would not publish the headline CPI number or the so-called core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, for October. "BLS cannot provide specific guidance to data users for navigating the missing October observations," the agency said. Some Updates - Some info coming in are estimates - some delayed - Unemployment at 4.6% - Latest report shows +64,000 added - ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing - both slowed over the last month The Fed - Meanwhile the Fed cuts rates.... - A Federal Reserve split over where its priorities should lie cut its key interest rate Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, but signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions. - The FOMC’s “dot plot” indicated just one more reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, amid considerable disagreement from members about where rates should head. - In addition to the rate decision, the Fed also announced it will resume buying Treasury securities. The central bank will start by buying $40 billion in Treasury bills, beginning Friday. - Markets were all over the place on this as it was a little confusing at first - then it seemed that everyone loved (for one day) - Why is the Fed moving up Treasury purchases to "immediately" from a few months from now? - AND - dissension ! A larger group  that usual of regional Fed bank presidents signaled they opposed the cut, and six policymakers said the benchmark federal funds rate should end 2025 in a range of 3.75% to 4%, suggesting they opposed the move. - Long bonds have not moved at all on this news. Costco Earnings - Costco beat Wall Street’s fiscal first-quarter sales and revenue expectations. - Sales rose 8.2% and digital sales jumped 20.5% compared with the year-ago quarter. - Costco surpassed Wall Street’s quarterly expectations and posted year-over-year sales growth of 8.2% as the retailer attracted more digital sales and opened new locations. - Earnings per share: $4.50 vs. $4.27 expected - Revenue: $67.31 billion vs. $67.14 billion expected - Costco does not provide year ahead guidance - Shares down from a recent high of $855 Costco Fun Facts - About 4.5 million pies were sold in the three days before Thanksgiving, which is equivalent to roughly 7,000 pies per warehouse. -  These were bakery pies (e.g., pumpkin, apple), - Costco had more than $250 million in non-food online orders on Black Friday, a record for Costco’s U.S. e-commerce business. - Approximately 358,000 whole pizzas were served at Costco's U.S. food courts, a 31% jump from last year. (500 pizza's per store) Fat No More - Retatrutide - Eli Lilly said its next-generation obesity drug delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss seen so far in a late-stage trial and reduced knee arthritis pain, clearing the first of several upcoming studies on the weekly injection. - In a 48-week Phase 2 study, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 24% of their body weight. - Recent Phase 3 results showed patients on the highest dose lost an average of 28.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks. - The trials also showed improvements in related health conditions, including knee osteoarthritis pain, blood pressure, and liver fat - This triple action is what makes retatrutide potentially more effective for weight loss than existing medications like Zepbound (tirzepatide), which targets two receptors, or Wegovy (semaglutide), which targets only one. Paypal - PayPal Holdings Inc. applied to become a bank in the US, looking to take advantage of the Trump administration’s openness to financial-technology companies entering the banking system. - The payments-focused firm submitted applications to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions to form a Utah-chartered industrial loan company, PayPal said in a statement Monday. - If approved, PayPal Bank would help the firm bolster its small-business lending capabilities, according to the statement, which said the company has provided access to more than $30 billion in loans and capital since 2013. Ford - Management Confused - Instead of planning to make enough electric vehicles to account for 40 percent of global sales by 2030—as it pledged just four years ago—Ford says it will focus on a broader range of hybrids, extended-range electrics, and battery-electric models, which executives now say will account for 50 percent of sales by the end of the decade. - The automaker will make hybrid versions of almost every vehicle in its lineup, the company says. - All in on EVS cost them -  Ford expects to record about $19.5 billion in special items, mostly during the fourth quarter. ---- The charges are related to a restructuring of its business priorities and a pullback in its all-electric vehicle investments. Australia - Australia has implemented a groundbreaking ban preventing children under 16 from accessing major social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook, effective December 2025, to protect them from harm, with significant fines for companies failing to enforce it, though messaging apps and gaming platforms are currently exempt. - Reddit is suing - Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Threads, TikTok, X (Twitter), YouTube, Reddit, Kick, and Twitch are all banned for kids under 16. - Thoughts on this? Saved For Last - Of all the eye-popping numbers that Oracle Corp. published last week on the costs of its artificial-intelligence data center buildout, the most striking didn’t appear until the day after its earnings press release and analyst call. - The more comprehensive 10-Q earnings report that appeared on Thursday detailed $248 billion of lease-payment commitments, “substantially all” related to data centers and cloud capacity arrangements, the business-software firm said. These are due to commence between now and its 2028 financial year but they’re not yet included on its balance sheet. - That’s almost $150 billion more than was disclosed in the footnotes of September’s earnings update. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

We are Green-lighting! Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden A Chocolate Craze PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) - Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden - Chocolate Craze Markets - NVDA gets the greenlight - Waiting for the ECO - ALL eyes...... Wednesday at 2pm - Oil Dropping - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Inflation - PCE comes in a little lighter than expected - However, let us be clear that inflation is not lower and prices grossly above where we were a couple of years ago - Inflation still running at around 3% overall - Fed set to greenlight the rate cut Oil and Gas - Oil has been dropping - reports that use will slow over the next year - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Jobs - Reports show that U.S. employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts in 2025 (as of early December), marking the highest level since the pandemic's start in 2020. - This has been driven by tech integration (AI), economic shifts, and soft consumer spending, with sectors like government, tech, retail, and warehousing leading. Greenlight - No security problems here - Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful Nvidia GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan. - The move, which would send Nvidia H200s to China, seeks to find a middle ground between those who oppose exports of any advanced AI chips and those who worry that restrictions will merely hand the market to Chinese competitors. - It also aims to satisfy the Chinese government, which has blocked imports of less powerful chips, such as Nvidia’s H20. - This can be gamed ..... - OHHHH - and USA to get 25% of the sales ???? China Not With Program - China is buying soybeans again, but short of President Trump's target, according to CNBC - Really think this is a big game and will not resolve anytime soon - China still holds the cards ECO Data Starting to Flow Again - BLS to publish October PPI data with the November PPI news release on January 14, 2026 - Unemployment report released Dec 16th - This week is a little slow but next week (Dec 15-19) kick it up hard - - - Dec 19 Income and Spending , PCE report, Housing starts, Retail Sales, CPI (Nov), Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, UMich Sentiment Apple Turnover - Not the pastry - In just the past week, Apple’s heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down. - Then the company announced that its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well. - All four executives have reported directly to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook Berkshire Too - Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett's investing lieutenants and the CEO of GEICO, is departing Berkshire Hathaway and joining JPMorgan Chase in a new role as part of a major shake-up involving both firms. - Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway and his role leading GEICO to run the bank's new investment group as part of its wider "security and resilience" initiative announced in October. AI Frames - Warby Parker and Google announced that the first lightweight, AI glasses developed through their partnership are expected to launch in 2026 - What will be different about these? All others have seemed to failed miserably. Mergers - Maybe - Netflix announced Friday it’s reached a deal to buy pieces of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount Skydance and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets. - The transaction is comprised of cash and stock and is valued at $27.75 per WBD share - Others are offering $30 CASH per share - President Trump has put in his comments that he thinks it may be a tough one to clear - $2.8B breakup fee if Warner Brothers pulls out and $5.8B reverse break up fee if the deal is not approved. Oracle Earnings - Wednesday after the bell - This is the poster child for the vendor and circular financing - Stock was the darling for a minute a few months ago - Written: "The stock has fallen roughly 32-40% from its September 10 peak, erasing its "Nvidia moment" rally and turning Oracle into the primary vehicle for expressing skepticism about the AI build-out and OpenAI's economics." - Briefing analyst Forgot this... - What happened to the Tik Tok deal and the China bad discussion? --- History.... - Negotiations happened between ByteDance, Oracle, and Walmart back in 2020, and later discussions continued under “Project Texas” for U.S. data security. - The proposed structure (Oracle as tech partner, U.S. investors taking a stake) was announced but never finalized into a binding acquisition or spin-off. - Instead, TikTok remained under ByteDance ownership, while implementing U.S. data storage and security measures through Oracle. - The U.S. government extended deadlines multiple times, but no sale or transfer of ownership occurred. - China wins again! So much winning! Private Credit  - Private markets investing startup Yieldstreet, now calling itself Willow Wealth, recently informed customers of new defaults on real estate projects in Houston and Nashville, Tennessee. The letters, obtained and verified by CNBC, account for about $41 million in new losses. - They come on the heels of $89 million in marine loan wipeouts disclosed in September and $78 million in losses previously reported by CNBC. - Willow Wealth also removed a decade of historical performance data from public view in recent weeks. - Total losses? $208 million Pistachios - Dubai Craze - Milk chocolate shell filled with: - Pistachio cream (often blended with tahini for a nutty, slightly savory note) - Kadayif (shredded phyllo pastry) for crunch - Created in 2021, went viral in 2023 via the SOCH -  United States, Iran, and Turkey the biggest producers of pistachios - Argentina betting on it to continue  - adding to their farmland to cover the demand - Dubai Chocolate Bar (the viral pistachio-knafeh chocolate) generated over $50–$60 million in global sales for the year. IndiGo - In November, new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules increased pilot rest periods. - IndiGo failed to adjust crew rosters, causing a severe pilot shortage during peak travel season. - 1000s of flights cancelled - IndiGo apologized and implemented measures like processing refunds, arranging transport/hotels for stranded passengers, and strengthening customer support. - As of this week - still having major problems - stock don 20% from its high on this news (not traded in USA) Grok Report - Using Grok as Copilot is getting a little weird....ChatGPT a little slow - Photo to video clip - pretty cool - Image generation - FAST! - Can have full on conversations and even companions.....(?) - More racy than other Ai (as is to be expected) Age 18+  options - Interesting nd impressive thus far. OMG  - Brown Nosing - Stellantis said it will bring an all-electric small “car” called the Fiat Topolino to the U.S. - The Topolino is actually categorized as “an all-electric quadricycle” rather than a car, according to Stellantis and has a top speed of roughly 28 miles per hour. - Fiat’s announcement comes less than a week after President Donald Trump praised small “Kei” cars from Japan and expressed interest in bringing tiny cars to the U.S. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Winner of the CTP Cup for IBIT Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman’s declaration PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Winner of the CTP for IBIT - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 - Calling a Code Red! Sam Altman's panic - Here come the Tariff lawsuits - - Smart Toilets are a thing (And learning the Bristol Scale) Markets - Horses can smell the barn.... Seasonal Trends - PR Teams - full throttle - (This is their Social Media) - Tax planning over the next couple of weeks may see some selling into year end Impressive Results - India's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 8.2% in the quarter ended September against a forecast of 7.3% in a Reuters poll and 7.8% expansion in the previous quarter, data released last Friday showed. - The Indian government has cut consumer taxes on hundreds of items and implemented long-delayed labour reforms in the last three months as it tries to keep the domestic economy strong in the face of global uncertainties. - Strongest in 6 quarters - Economists said stockpiling for the festive season as well as expedited exports ahead of the 50% tariff deadline on August 27 might have contributed to the quarterly growth figures. - Manufacturing output rose 9.1% in the quarter ending in September from a year earlier against growth of 7.7% a quarter ago, while construction expanded 7.2% year-on-year from 7.6% a quarter ago. NVDA Spreading Out - Nvidia on Monday announced it has purchased $2 billion of Synopsys common stock as part of a strategic partnership to accelerate computing and artificial intelligence engineering solutions. - As part of the multiyear partnership, Nvidia will help Synopsys accelerate its portfolio of compute-intensive applications, advance agentic AI engineering, expand cloud access and develop joint go-to-market initiatives, according to a release. - Nvidia said it purchased Synopsys’ stock at $414.79 per share (Now at $445) Amazon Ultra Fast Service - The parent company of Instacart fell nearly 4% after Amazon said it’s testing “ultra-fast” delivery of groceries in Seattle and Philadelphia. - These deliveries take about 30 minutes or less, said Amazon. - Doordash and other delivery companies stocks also fell. Microstrategy - Strategy - Stock has been under pressure - Who knows what the company actully does anymore - Leverage Bitcoin play - issuing massive debt and convertibles to but Bitcoin - Stock down 39% this year and 52% 1 -year (Up 400% in the last 5 years) -Bitcoin dropped below $87k this week before staging a recovery bounce. Devil's Metal - Silver has outpaced gold in 2025, with a growth of about 71%, compared to gold’s 54%. - Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past ten years, especially in Central and South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion and infrastructure challenges. - While industrial demand for silver is expected to decline slightly in 2025, the metal is increasingly used in electric vehicles, for AI components and in photovoltaics. - Some people are saying that people were having to transport silver by plane rather than on cargo ships to meet delivery demand INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Some Trump Updates: - Reiterates his view that Chair Powell should reduce rates. - Says he's negotiating with Democrats on healthcare. - Plans to give refunds out of collected tariffs. Crying Game - SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son on Monday downplayed the decision to offload the conglomerate’s entire Nvidia stake, saying he “was crying” over parting with the shares. - Speaking at a forum in Tokyo Monday, Son addressed SoftBank’s November disclosure that the firm had sold its holding in the American chip darling for $5.83 billion. - According to Son, SoftBank wouldn’t have made the move if it didn’t need to bankroll its next artificial intelligence investments, including a big bet on OpenAI and data center projects. Are Stocks Overvalued? CAPE RATIO Consumers... Consumer Confidence CODE RED -  Chief executive Sam Altman reportedly declared a “code red” on Monday, urging staff to improve its flagship product ChatGPT, an indicator that the startup’s once-unassailable lead is eroding as competitors like Google and Anthropic close in. - In the memo, reported by the Wall Street Journal and The Information, Altman said the company will be delaying initiatives like ads, shopping and health agents, and a personal assistant, Pulse, to focus on improving ChatGPT. This includes core features like greater speed and reliability, better personalization, and the ability to answer more questions, he said. - Herein lies the problem with this entire tech market - what if ChatGPT fades to the sideline with $1.5Trillion promised over the next 5-7 years? - Remember, Google declared a Code Red after the arrival of ChatGPT. AI Takeover - Massachusetts Institute of Technology on Wednesday released a study that found that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care and professional services. - The study was conducted using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which was created by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. - The index simulates how 151 million U.S. workers interact across the country and how they are affected by AI and corresponding policy. Costco Sues - Costco filed a lawsuit asking for a full refund of tariffs the warehouse club giant has paid since President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” tariffs earlier this year. - Costco sued the Trump administration to get a full refund of new tariffs it paid so far this year, and to block those import duties from continuing to be collected from the retail warehouse club giant as a Supreme Court case plays out. - Costco is worried that it would lose the money even if the Tariffs were deemed illegal. Fat Cutting -  Eli Lilly said it is lowering the cash prices of single-dose vials of its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound on its direct-to-consumer platform, LillyDirect. - Starting Dec. 1, cash-paying patients with a valid prescription can pay $299 to $449 per month for Zepbound vials on LillyDirect, depending on the dose, down from a previous range of $349 to $499 per month. - The announcement comes just weeks after President Donald Trump inked deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to make their GLP-1 drugs easier for Americans to access and afford. Smart Toilets - This year industry giants Toto Ltd. and Kohler Co. introduced smart toilets capable of analyzing what is in the bowl - Launched in August, the latest model in the Neorest line starts at roughly $3,200. - It uses an LED light and a sensor to read the shape, color, hardness and volume of stool as it drops, and sends data to a smartphone app in less than a minute. - Each toilet can support as many as six users — enough for most households — while some companies have bought multiple units for their employees. Toto aims to sell 7,300 units annually by 2028. - For now the stool-scanning Neorest is available only in Japan. - The app analyzes bowel movements against the Bristol scale, which is commonly used to diagnose constipation, inflammation or diarrhea, and offers simple recommendations such as eating more fiber and drinking more water, or even menu suggestions, like vegetable soup. Bristol Scale Feel Good - Entrepreneur Michael Dell and his wife, Susan, will deposit $250 in the individual investment accounts of 25 million American children in a $6.25 billion philanthropic pledge as part of the Trump administration's Invest America initiative. - $250 each child born after between 2015 and 2025 - The money will go to the accounts of children who live in ZIP codes where the median family's income is $150,000 or less, according to a spokesperson for the Dells. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Here is the list of players: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Rough Week – does not phase bulls! Bitcoin – Bottoming? Let’s take a look at Walmart and Target again Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Short Week - Markets closed on Thursday and short Friday (1pm) - Can't have a down week for TDAY! - Too much table talk - Recession News - Let's take a look at Walmart and Target again - Homeowners! Mortgage Reform? Markets - Rough Week - does not phase bulls! - Bitcoin - Bottoming? - NVDA - China Bound? - NASDAQ Weighting Inflation - Still Up There - They are now pressing for a cut in December (How are we handicapping this?) - All of a sudden the parade of Fed speakers - all seem a bit more dovish. Meanwhile - President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries. - oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers. Quantum Stocks GOOD NEWS! - NO Recession risk! - Bessent says inflation due to services economy, not tariffs - Treasury secretary says Republicans should end filibuster in event of another shutdown - Bessent says administration working to lower prices where it can - Banking and insurance,  Software development and cloud services, Tourism, Restaurants and hospitality , Professional services (law, accounting, consulting) Rigging it - NEC Director Kevin Hassett emerges as frontrunner for Fed Chair as President Trump nears decision, according to Bloomberg Weird News - Buried in the NVDA earnings report - Remember back in September, the two companies announced a massive partnership that would include a $100 billion investment over time by Nvidia into OpenAI. - Nvidia said in its quarterly financial filing that there’s no guarantee that the company will finalize an agreement with OpenAI. - Soooooo - is this all hot air???? More NVDA - Here we go. Another reversal - President Donald Trump will make a final decision on whether to allow Nvidia Corp. to sell advanced artificial intelligence chips to China. - The decision involves weighing the promotion of economic expansion against protecting national security, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. ------ Read that again - money versus national security - Allowing the sales would mark a significant easing of restrictions imposed in 2022 to prevent Beijing and its military from accessing the most powerful US technologies. Chip in question: H200 - Had some discussions about this - might as well as they will just get it on their own and this way we can control. (On the other hand, they have a long history of outsmarting us) EVEN MORE - NVIDIA issues memo to CNBC: The company said "We are not aware of any claims that NVDA has improperly capitalized operating expenses. Several commentators allege that customers have overstated earnings by extending GPU depreciation schedules beyond economic useful life" | - The tip of the Iceberg - this is what Michael Burry has been pressing..... HPQ Earnings - HP Inc. beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus; increases dividend; announces company-wide initiative, includes job cuts - Stock down 6% Amazon - The Spend keeps going... - Amazon.com Inc. says it will spend as much as $50 billion expanding its capacity to provide artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services to US government entities. - Amazon Web Services plans to break ground next year on what will ultimately be 1.3 gigawatts of additional capacity across data centers designed for federal agencies, the company said in a blog post on Monday. Google/Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), further reduced its stake in Apple - Google on a ramp since - new Gemini and... - Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, adding to a months long share rally as the search giant has made the case it can rival Nvidia Corp. as a leader in artificial intelligence technology. - Meta is in discussions to use the Google chips — known as tensor processing units, or TPUs — in data centers in 2027, and may rent chips from Google’s cloud division next year. - Really smart people at Berkshire? What did they know? NASDAQ 100 - Uninvestable? - Top 10 stocks are over 70% weighting - SP500 top 10 stocks = 38% - This is not a diversified approach any longer - Coming up on next week's TDI Podcast - Howard Silverblatt - S&P Dow Jones - Keeper of the data Something They Don't Want You To Know - “Magnificent 7” Companies Reported Lowest Earnings Growth Since Q1 2023 - With NVIDIA reporting actual results for Q3 on November 19, all the companies in the “Magnificent 7” have now reported earnings for the third quarter. - “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 18.4% for the third quarter. This earnings growth rate is below the average earnings growth rate of 28.8% for these seven companies over the previous four quarters. Novo Nordisk - Pummeled - Shares of Novo Nordisk on Monday fell to a four-year low after the Danish pharmaceutical company said a highly anticipated trial for Alzheimer’s disease failed to meet its main goal. - The trial tested whether semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo’s blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy — helped slow progression for Alzheimer’s disease. -While treatment with semaglutide resulted in improvement of Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers in two separate trials, this did not translate into a delay of disease progression, Novo said in a statement Monday. The goal had been to slow patients’ cognitive decline by at least 20%. - Reminiscent of Pfizer - after Covid shot had noting left... Bitcoin - Live by the sword.... - iShares Bitcoin Trust had $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, according to WSJ - Big month of losses for crypto - not too much mention and support by Whitehouse - Selling started - coincidentally with  the pardon of Changpeng Zhao, the convicted founder of the Binance Remember DOGE - DOGE disbanded eight months ahead of scheduled end in July 2026 - Former DOGE employees take new roles in administration - Elon Musk initially led DOGE, promoting its work on social media - bagged out when stock tanked - DOGE claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work. Walmart - Walmart raised its sales and earnings outlook last week as the retailer posted revenue gains in its fiscal third quarter, driven by double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers across incomes. - The retailer said it expects full-year net sales to climb between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from its previous expectations of 3.75% to 4.75%. - It said it expects its adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.58 to $2.63, a slight raise from its prior range of $2.52 to $2.62. - Stock went vertical ---- - Much different story than Target - WMT up 16% YTD - TGT down 37% Beef Prices - Not Going Down - Tyson Foods stock rallying on Monday following the company's official confirmation that it will shutter its Lexington, Nebraska, beef facility, a strategic move that validates earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal. - The decision comes as the meat and poultry giant grapples with historically low U.S. cattle inventories, which have severely compressed margins and led to a reported $426 mln adjusted operating loss for its beef segment in FY25.| - Seems that investors like this decisive cost-cutting measure, viewing the capacity reduction as a necessary step toward restoring profitability in a challenging commodity environment. Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package last Friday, marking the first major policy initiative under the new leader, who has pledged to pursue expansionary fiscal measures. - The package includes general account outlays of 17.7 trillion yen, far exceeding the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and representing the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts. - Problem is that the Yen is sliding and intervention is imminent - Inflation issue and they will make it worse with this stimulus Larry Summers? - Epstein Files - IS there any There , There? Talk about a 50 Year Mortgage? - Such a bad idea  - and these boneheads think it is smart - 30-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,610.46 Total Payment: $579,767.35 Total Interest Paid: $279,767.35 - 50-Year Mortgage Monthly Payment: $1,362.42 Total Payment: $817,449.78 Total Interest Paid: $517,449.78 Thanksgiving Costs 2025 National Average (American Farm Bureau Survey) - 2025: $55.18 for a classic dinner for 10 people (about $5.52 per person) - 2024: $58.08 for the same meal - Change: Down 5% year-over-year This is the third consecutive annual decline since the record high of $64.05 in 2022. Key Drivers Turkey prices dropped sharply: A 16-pound frozen turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024. Sides are mixed: Dinner rolls and stuffing are cheaper (down 14.6% and 9%). Sweet potatoes and veggie trays are much higher (up 37% and 61%). Regional Differences South: $50.01 (most affordable) West: $61.75 (most expensive) Classic Meal for 10 ($55???????) 16-pound turkey (frozen, whole) Stuffing mix (14 ounces) Sweet potatoes (3 pounds) Rolls (12-count package) Peas (1 pound) Cranberries (12 ounces) Carrots and celery (for a veggie tray) Pumpkin pie mix (30 ounces) Pie shells (two, 9-inch) Whipping cream (half pint) Milk (1 gallon) - Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CTP FOR: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Tariff juggling – just moving them around – no studies, no rationale Big Moves – One of the worst Novembers since 2008 The Big Short – End of a Era? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday - The Big Short - End of a Era? - What is happening to Bitcoin? - THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed Markets - Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale - Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 - Hindenburg Omen - Fed Losing Cred WHY? - If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries.... - President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg - So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we? --- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit More Tariffs - Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028 - Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports - For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat. - Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028. - What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS Fed Update - Markets no longer view December as a sure bet - Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish - Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95% - AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool) More Horseshit! - Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office. - Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago - That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. - Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on! - Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time.... StampFlation - The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week. - The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select. BIG - Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. - In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year. - "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets," Burry said in the letter. - Put on a big OPTIONS short on NVDA and PLTR - We checked and his Registration expired.. Has about $155 million under management - not so much.. - He hinted that he will be back doing something and will announce on November 25th... Softbank - We know that they CUT all of their NVDA holdings - Looking at the 13F, also cut ORCL - New position in INTC - Looking to raise significant cast to outlay to private companies over the next couple of months. - Stock is up 120% YTD, DOWN 12% last week - Did you know He had for many years the distinction of being the person who had lost the most money in history (more than $59 billion during the dot-com crash of 2000 alone, when his SoftBank shares plummeted), a feat surpassed by Elon Musk in the following decades. THC Blues ??? - A new ban, tucked into legislation ending the longest shutdown in history, outlaws products containing more than 0.4 milligrams of total THC per container. == Industry executives said that threshold will wipe out 95% of the $28 billion hemp retail market when it takes effect in a year. - 300,000 jobs could be effected ($28 billion annually) - Possible that state laws will win out, but clearly Federal laws are not going the way of the industry. - Concern that the blackmarket will grow again - However, this can be seen in several ways as it may be cleaning up some of the selling of things like Delta-8 those weird knock-offs seen at gas stations) UK Tax Scrap - British government bond yields rose sharply on Friday morning as investors react to reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will scrap an expected increase in income tax. - The moves came as investors reacted to a report from the Financial Times of an income tax U-turn. - Remember that they did a similar plan a few years ago that caused major havoc with markets and currencies until they withdrew the idea. How Does This Work? - House Republicans drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies, according to Politico Some Eco ...?? - Employment Situation for September 2025 that was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3, 2025, will now be release  Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:30 AM ET - What about October? White House says it may NEVER be released Hindenburg Omen - There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen. This is a warning signal of trouble, but trouble does not always come. What is fair to say is that Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared at every major stock market top going back several decades. - According to Tom McClellan: The current count of 5 signals is not as big as some other clusters. But we got 4 signals in a cluster at the end of 2021, ahead of the 2022 bear market. So 4 is enough, if the market is inclined to live up to this warning. And 2 signals were enough back in December 2024 and March 2025 to tell us about the trouble in the market which unfolded in the April 2025 tariff reaction minicrash. But 5 is better. Pied Piper - Losing Followers - OpenAi plans to invest $1.4 Trillion over the next 5 years or so - Biggest beneficiary - Oracle - Stock went from $250 to $340 overnight - now a $220 (Full Round-trip) - Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month. Disney Earnings - Hmmmmm...... - Shares fall 8% as revenue misses - Digging in for a prolonged flight with YouTube - The company also missed quarterly revenue expectations as the cable weakness overshadowed strong growth in the company's streaming and parks businesses central to its growth. - Family of 4 - Trip to Disney - A  3-night trip with tickets and dining is estimated to be between $6,000 and $9,000 Starbucks - Can it get any worse for this company? - Starbucks Workers United launched a strike in more than 40 cities and 65 stores on the day of chain’s Red Cup Day sales event. - NY incoming Mayor Mandami says there should be a total boycott of the stores - The union is pushing for improved hours, higher wages and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges levied against Starbucks. Buffett - Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and further reduced its stake in Apple (AAPL), detailing its equity portfolio for the last time before Warren Buffett ends his 60-year run as chief executive officer. - They also sold more Bank of America - *6% reduction - although still the thrid largest stockholder - Sold homebuilder DR Horton - Bought position in Domino's Pizza and Chubb ---- DPZ chart looks terrible Over to China - Economy not getting any better - Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period. - Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September. - Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month. - The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country. Electric Prices - We know that the new wave of data centers are requiring HUGE amounts of energy to keep them running - Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. - Prices are going up in some of the areas that have big data warehouses are climbing faster -Prices, for example, surged by 13% in Virginia, 16% in Illinois and 12% in Ohio. - Did some research - Global data center electricity use is estimated at ~200–250 TWh per year - Global Bitcoin network consumes ~120–150 TWh annually - Remember when the climate activists were all over that? Crypto and Risk - Bitcoin and the other names in the crypto universe are getting smoked - Over the weekend, Bitcoin trading at $96K - YTD trasing about flat --- Is this a precursor to a risk off market? - The S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq indexes are all experiencing their worst start to November since 2008. - Since 1980, November has been the best-performing month for the S&P 500, with an average gain of 2.2%. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING A NEW CTP iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter