DHUnplugged Podcast

Silver and Gold – Still Going.

Big week for earnings.

Fed decision on Wednesday.

Nat Gas price exploding higher.

US Dollar drops hard over past few days.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm-Up

- What we learned from Davos

- President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off

- January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying

- S&P  500: All-time highs going into earnings

Markets

- Silver and Gold - Still Going

- Big week for earnings

- Fed decision on Wednesday

- Nat Gas price exploding

- US Dollar drops hard over past few days

Can't Keep Track Anymore

-Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year.

- In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS".

- South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February

- KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news

- S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments

Davos - 2026 - What we learned

- Not much

- Same bifurcated view of the world

- Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan"

- So, no tariffs

- (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....)

Gold and Silver

- Off to the races

- Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day

- Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move

- GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust)

- Gold above $5,000 per ounce

- - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up|

- USD weakness

Economy - Still Strong

- The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories.

- Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

- Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter.

Amazon

- Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan

- First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder

- CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues

---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point?

- Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce

- Company still has 1.5 million employees

Comeback?

- Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned.

- Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked

- Frontier tried

- Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked

Booz Cancelled

- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump’s tax records to The New York Times.

- The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.”

- Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department’s announcement.

- Why does Booz have tax records in the first place?

- Stock down 50% since end of 2024

Private Credit

- BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy

- The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025.

- This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter.

- The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025.

- Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33%

Zoom Communications

- Valuation of Anthropic stake

- The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet.

- From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln.

- This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo.

- Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth.

UNH and Health Stocks

- DOWN 20% today

- The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026.

- The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits.

- UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers:

- - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%.

- - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%.

Tech Earnings

Microsoft (MSFT)

Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)

- Wall Street Expectations:  Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion

- Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth

- Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure.

Meta Platforms (META)

Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)

- Wall Street Expectations:  EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion

- Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth

- Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy.

Tesla (TSLA)

Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)

- Wall Street Expectations:  EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion

- Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago

- Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand.

- Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap.

Apple (AAPL)

Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close)

Wall Street Expectations -  EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion

Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth

- This is Apple’s most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability.

Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter.

Company
Ticker
Report Date
Est. EPS
Key Focus Area

Microsoft
MSFT
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$3.92
Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending

Meta Platforms
META
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$8.17
Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance

Tesla
TSLA
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$0.45
Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates

Apple
AAPL
Thu, Jan 29 (AMC)
Varies
iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout

ServiceNow
NOW
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$0.88
Enterprise AI software adoption rates

IBM
IBM
Wed, Jan 28 (AMC)
$4.28
Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance

*AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates)

Boeing

- The company’s airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts’ expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting.

- Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024.

The airplane manufacturer delivered 600 airplanes last year, up from 348 a year earlier.

Another MoonShot

- U.S. natural gas prices surged over 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since late 2022.

- It comes as Winter Storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power and forces mass flight cancellations.

- The National Weather Service has forecast wind chills as low as -50 degrees Fahrenheit (-45.56 degrees Celsius) across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week.

-Up 68% YTD

- Nat gas is used in a whole lot of things - electrical grid 43% is fueled by Nat Gas

Government - Not Again!

- Seems like Dems are threatening a shutdown again

- A partial U.S. government shutdown is set to begin on Friday, January 30, 2026.

- The Senate is expected to vote on a funding package to avert this shutdown, with delays from a winter storm pushing initial votes to at least January 27, 2026

- The issue is being exacerbated with the ICE / Minnesota issues

This is precious

- Ex-finance minister Noda currently co-heads largest opposition party

- He says that Japan unlikely to get international consent for intervention

- Yen, bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode, he says

- Government must vow to restore fiscal discipline to end yen fall, Noda says

- Japan must create environment allowing for steady BOJ rate hikes, he says

- THIS shows us all that the whole thing with these guys/gals is all political.

- NEVER EVER if he was in the role would he say anything like this.

 

 

 

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Here we go again – Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs

DAVOS – Elitists are Meeting

Suicide Coaches?

Hedge funds – finally a good year!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

 

Warm-Up

- Here we go again - Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs

- DAVOS - Elitists are Meeting

- Suicide Coaches?

- Hedge funds - finally a good year!

Markets

- Silver and Gold - ATH

- Selling off after Greenland threat

- Netflix - Saga continues

Davos - 2026

- Economic Confab that often brings out the elite (elitists)

- Many watch for their key points and do the opposite

- Trump going, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi not

- Why is Zelensky going?

- Kushner, Bessent, Little Marco will be attending with Trump

- Did you know - Larry Fink is the interim Co-Chair.

- The CEOs that you would expect that love the limelight ) (Jensen, Nadella etc)

World Economic Forum Report (Davos)

- Due out Wednesday - expected to show that geopolitical confrontation is the top concern this year

- Rising Inflation

- Economic Downturn

- Asset Bubbles

- High debt burdens

- Any of those could be any year and anyone in the world that is breathing could have made that list

WEF List

NEXT

- Greenland - Sell or Else!

- Trump promises 100% that he will impose tariffs and follow through

- The tariffs will start at 10% on Feb. 1 and shoot up to 25% on June 1, Trump said.

- Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland

- Supposedly in response to EU allies moving troops into Greenland

- Greenland protests with - Make America Go Away hats

- 200% tariff threatened in champagne and wines (Mad at Macron)

Oh - and Gaza

- The new Board of Peace

- Trump names himself 'Board of Peace' chair under October plan

- Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British prime minister Tony Blair and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

- Supposedly Putin has said he was also invited to be on the board.

- Purpose? Officially, the Board is mandated to “promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict...

Saks - bankrupt

- Chapter 11

- Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase Needless Markup (aka Neiman Marcus)

- Amazon filed an objection to Saks Global’s bankruptcy financing plan on the grounds it could harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order.

- Amazon The tech company invested $475 million into Saks’ acquisition of Neiman Marcus in December 2024,  a stake it said is now effectively “worthless.”

- Amazon threatened more “drastic remedies” if Saks doesn’t heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee.

- Amazon initially invested because it thought Saks would start selling its products on Amazon’s website and the tech company would offer technology and logistics expertise.|

- Amazon's attorneys: “Saks continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owed to its retail partners.”

Suicide Coaches

- “This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is these AI models became suicide coaches,” Benioff told CNBC’s Sarah Eisen on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland.

- In 2018, Benioff said social media should be treated like a health issue, and said the platforms should be regulated like cigarettes: “They’re addictive, they’re not good for you.”

- “Bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated,” he said Tuesday, “and now you’re kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence.”

China

- China 2025 new yuan loans 16.27 trln yuan, lowest since 2018

- Dec new yuan loans beat forecast

- PBOC announces targeted monetary policy easing

- "From the asset side, amid the property market adjustment, the private sector including households and firms showed insufficient willingness to add leverage, while government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage and the economy."

- Now what is happening is that $ that used to go into real estate is heading for stocks/risk assets.

- Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling unease over the pace of a rally.

- - Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold.

- - - Regulators made the move to rein in potential froth in financial markets, with a fund manager saying it sends a clear signal that they want a slow bull market, not an overheated one.

--- Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange statement. The move, which applies to Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing bourses, underscores regulators’ efforts to rein in potential froth in financial markets.

More China

- China’s population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year.

- After the one-child policy - now government is pushing or more births

- Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people — is the lowest on record since 1949

- Government tactics range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers.

Bank Earnings

- Generally pretty good!

- Yield curve is helping in a big way - steepening

- Goldman beats, BAC beast Morgan Stanley bets etc. etc.

- Goldman: The company said profit jumped 12% from a year earlier to $4.62 billion, or $14.01 per share, on gains across its capital markets businesses.

- Morgan Stanley: Last Thursday reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations on the back of strong revenue from wealth management.

Fed Chair

- Over the weekend, Hassett thinks Trump is right not to have him in that position (What a sap! Good he is not in running anymore)

- Rick Reider and Warsh are front-runners

- Who ever kisses the most ass should win

- Warsh would actually be a good pick - experience and smart guy that is level headed

- Meanwhile - all of a sudden Trump says he is not looking to fire Powell (maybe h wants him to resign)

Netflix/Warner Brothers Update

- Netflix now plans to pay $27.75 per WBD share entirely in cash to acquire WBD’s streaming platform HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film studio.

- In reaction tot he hostile takeover bid from Paramount/Skydance

- The last offer was unanimously approved by the BOD

- NFLX Earnings .....

--- Earnings per share: 56 cents vs. 55 cents, estimated

------Revenue: $12.05 billion vs $11.97 billion, estimated

- Stock down AH

Inflation (Did we talk about this?)

- Even though we are told there is little inflation...

- Consumer Price Index increases 0.3% in December

- Food, rents were the main drivers of consumer inflation

- Underlying inflation rises a moderate 0.2%

- Food prices surged 0.7%

Planes!

- Boeing outsold Airbus last year

- First time since 2018

- BA stock made an ATH last week

Bond Vigilantes

- Danish pension operator AkademikerPension said it is exiting U.S. Treasurys over finance concerns tied to America’s budget shortfall.

- The move comes amid increasing tensions with the U.S. over Greenland as President Donald Trump pushes for control of the island.

- AkademikerPension said it plans to have closed its position of around $100 million in U.S. Treasurys by the end of the month.

- 10 YR yields moved up again to 4.3%

- What if.....??? (Mutual assured destruction?)

Hedgies

- Hedge fund investors posted gains of about 12.6% last year, the best returns since 2009, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc.

- Funds run by industry giants such as D.E. Shaw & Co. and Millennium Management posted double-digit returns, with Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II fund scoring a 34% gain.

- Hedge funds secured net inflows of $71 billion during the first three quarters of last year, a major reversal after a decade of outflows, with the industry's giants being among the major beneficiaries.

 

 

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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Greenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia – USA is the world’s Cop again?

More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie – all in week’s work..

Retail investors in control – don’t care about the noise.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

 

Warm-Up

- Greenland, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia - USA is the world's Cop again?

- More .. Housing, Credit cards, Fannie and Freddie - all in week's work..

- Retail investors in control - don't care about the noise

Markets

- DJIA plowing ahead - NASDAQ on fire - what can stop this?

- Nuclear stocks back in play

- Defense names on the move

- Interesting economic news.

FIRST

- President Donald Trump said drug “cartels are running Mexico,” and suggested the U.S. military could start land strikes against them there.

- The comments come on the heels of suggestions that Trump could take military action in Cuba and Colombia, and to annex Greenland.

- The Trump administration has reportedly carried out 35 known strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean, killing 115 individuals.

- I will be going to Mexico later this week for a couple of days.....

Retail Ruling

- Retail traders have extended a buying spree into the new year, following a record-setting performance in 2025, with purchases in the first four trading days of January hitting the second-highest level in almost eight months.

- Individual investors have bought about $10.1 billion of US equities since the start of the year, mainly via exchange-traded funds, far exceeding the 12-month weekly average.

- Retail investors' confidence has helped stabilize markets during recent pullbacks, and if they keep snapping up equities, gains in the US stock market are likely to persist, according to analysts.

Employment Report

- 4.4% Unemployment Rate

- Nonfarm Payroll Employment: U.S. employers added +50,000 jobs in December 2025. This came in below economists' expectations (consensus around 60,000–73,000) and was a slowdown from the downwardly revised +56,000 in November.

- Unemployment Rate: Edged down slightly to 4.4% (from a revised 4.5% in November), contrary to forecasts of 4.5%. The number of unemployed people remained around 7.5 million, showing little change.

- Full-Year 2025 Performance: Total payroll growth for the year was just +584,000 jobs (average monthly gain of +49,000), marking one of the weakest years for hiring since 2020 (impacted by the pandemic). This is a sharp drop from +2.0 million added in 2024 (average +168,000 monthly).

-Revisions to Prior Months:

-- October 2025: Revised down to -173,000 (from -105,000, reflecting federal government buyouts and shutdown effects).

-- November 2025: Revised down by 8,000 to +56,000.

-- Combined October–November: 76,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

GDP - HOT

- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voting FOMC member) on CNBC says it is very surprising how strong GDP growth is; says labor market is clearly cooling; says inflation still too high; has confidence housing inflation will trend down

- Q3 at +3.8% and Atlanta GDP NOW is predicting that Q4 will come in at +5.1%

More Eco

- Productivity (Prelim Q3): 4.9% vs. 2.5% consensus

- Productivity measures output per hour worked. A jump to 4.9% (almost double the consensus) suggests businesses are producing much more per labor hour than expected. Prior was revised up to 4.1% from 3.3%, so the trend is strengthening.

WOW! Unit Labor Costs (Prelim Q3): -1.9% vs. +0.8% consensus

- Unit labor costs measure labor cost per unit of output. A negative number means costs per unit are falling. Prior revised to -2.9% from +1.0%, so costs have been dropping sharply.

-Could be due to technology adoption, automation, or efficiency improvements.

Post-pandemic restructuring and leaner operations may have boosted output without adding labor.

OOOOOOOPS

- White House official says Truth Social disclosure of December jobs report was an "inadvertent release"; says White House will review protocols - CNBC 

What next?

- President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective Jan. 20, without specifying details.

- Trump wrote on social media that the American Public will no longer be "ripped off" by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more.

- Maybe because of this: Hours before his message on Friday, Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, said on X: “Trump promised to cap credit card interest rates at 10% and stop Wall Street from getting away with murder. Instead, he deregulated big banks charging up to 30% interest on credit cards.”

- BUT! Credit card companies will not be forced to issue credit - right? It will hurt people that need credit for business, personal or other needs.

Then there was this:

- Mortgage rates fell sharply on Friday, a day after President Donald Trump said on social media that he is instructing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds.

- “This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” he said in the Truth Social post.

- Still not clear where the money will come from and hot this actually works with the current structure of Fannie and Freddie

- Talk of Fannie/Freddie IPO?

--- Both are still still in conservatorship and book value per share still negative

- SO WHERE DOES MONEY COME FROM?

OHHHHH - How about this

- 4PM browbeating for the Defense companies

- RTX was in the hotseat (as were others) taking the wrath of Pres Trump saying that they were basically fat and happy and ripping off the taxpayer

- No more dividends and no more buybacks was the call

- Stocks dropped 5% into the close and then more after

- 30 minutes later - conversation changed and the idea of a move from $1T in spending for the defense budget should move to $1.5T in 2027.

----- Where does that money come from?

- Stocks JUMPED!

Can't Ignore this

- Trump suggesting that Corporations and institutional investors cannot buy single family homes

- “People live in homes, not corporations,” he said.

- The argument is that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans.

- It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it.

- Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%.

Then there is this...

- DOJ putting he screws to Powell

- The Trump administration has ramped up its pressure campaign on the U.S. central bank, threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments he made to Congress about a building renovation project, prompting the Fed chief to call the move a "pretext" to gain more influence over the ?setting of interest rates.

- The latest development in a long-running effort by U.S. President Donald Trump to push the Fed to dramatically lower rates had immediate fallout in Washington and on global markets.

- Powell came out with a video over the weekend.

- Initially futures were down <1% - market opened all all ok...

With all of that....

- What are we not seeing any news about?

- EPSTEIN FILES

Nuclear back in Front

- Meta Platforms Inc. is set to become one of the world’s biggest corporate buyers of nuclear power, striking a series of deals to purchase electricity from existing plants and support new reactor projects.

- The agreements could end up totaling more than 6 gigawatts — that’s enough to power a city of about 5 million homes. The deals include purchasing electricity from three existing Vistra Corp. plants and support several small reactors that Sam Altman-backed Oklo Inc. and Bill Gates-backed TerraPower LLC are planning to build over the next decade.

- Still most of these SMR companies are speculative at best as they have not actually powered anything and have no revenue - YET.

Greenland - Where are we on this?

- Bribe the Greenlanders?

- Military action?

- Buy from Denmark?

xAI News

- Grok - seems to be coming along - been using it more lately

- XAI reported a net loss of $1.46 billion for the September quarter, up from $1 billion in the first quarter, according to internal documents.

- The company spent $7.8 billion in cash in the first nine months of the year, and its goal is to build AI that is self-sufficient and will eventually power humanoid robots like Optimus.

- XAI revenue nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter to $107 million for the three month period ended Sept. 30, 2025, according to financial documents shared with investors and reviewed by Bloomberg.

- From Grok: Worth $230 BILLION after the last money raise of $20 BILLION

- Also from Grok; Real value is probably around $40-$80 billion is valued on fundamentals  - the market of $230 Billion is moonshot hype.

GM Next

-  GM's $6 billion charge linked to EV investment reduction

- Most of the writedown tied to supplier payouts for canceled work

- GM is latest automaker to walk back EV plans after federal policy changes

- - This is a bad way to do business - Governmenet policy changes quickly

Apple and Google

- Apple is teaming up with Google to use Gemini models for an AI-powered Siri

- Reports swirled in August that Apple was in early talks the search giant to use a custom Gemini model to power a new iteration of Siri.

- Apple has mostly stood on the sidelines of the AI frenzy that’s swept up Wall Street since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

- Google now market cap > $4T

- - Sooooooo Apple is not going to come up with their own AI

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE

THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

CTP CUP 2025 Participants:

Jim Beaver

Mike Kazmierczak

Joe Metzger

Ken Degel

David Martin

Dean Wormell

Neil Larion

Mary Lou Schwarzer

Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS?

Upgrades all around the AI trade again…

January Effect

Defense and Oil Related – Let’s Go!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Interactive Brokers 

Warm-Up

- CTP Cup - We have a winner!

- Kitchen Cabinets rejoice!

- Buffett is retired (kind of)

- ALL TIME HIGHS - DJIA Leading so far in 2026

Markets

- LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS?

- Upgrades all around the AI trade again...

- January Effect

- Defense and Oil Related!

- Calling BS on Venezuela economic plans

Doctor Copper

- Copper surpassed $13,000 a ton for the first time due to a renewed rush to ship metal to the US.

- The rally has been underpinned by the ongoing threat of import tariffs from President Donald Trump, causing US copper prices to trade at a premium to those on the London Metal Exchange.

- The market has been driven by uncertainty over future US tariff policy, with analysts warning that the rest of the world could run short of copper due to low inventories outside the US.

- Huge inventory build due to uncertainty

Copper Chart

Following up on that...Some Questions

- Isn't the massive inventory build we are seeing due to uncertainly?

- Lots bought before tariffs went into effect - then tariffs reduced...

- Will there be a hangover from a the pull-forward like we have seen in the past?

Best markets for 2025

Colombia: +80%

South Korea (KOSPI): +76%

Ghana: +79%

Brazil (Bovespa): +34%

Japan (Nikkei 225): +26%

Europe STOXX 600: +19%

China (Shanghai Composite): +18%

U.S. S&P 500: +17%

U.S. Nasdaq: +21%

U.S. Dow Jones: +12%

US Dollar

- Basket USD is at 8 year LOW

- Yen at key intervention level (again)

- NO MANIPULATION HERE!

-- -- Gold/Silver betting trend continues...

- What happened to -> "a strong USD is in the best interests of the USA"?

Monday Markets

- For no apparent reason....(could it be the Venezuela news???)

- Markets JUMPED

- Oil and Defense stocks moved!

- DJIA up ~ 600 Points

---These stocks were about 500 points of the 600:

- GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc

- CAT Caterpillar Inc

- JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co

- CVX Chevron Corp

- V Visa Inc

---- GS is 1/2 the DJIA gains for 2026

Here we go...

- Elon Musk's Grok is generating sexualized images of women and minors

- users are taking pictures of others and telling Grok to "remove their clothes" or "put them in a thong bikini"

- review of public requests sent to Grok over a single 10-minute-long period at midday U.S. Eastern Time last Friday tallied 102 attempts by X users to use Grok to digitally edit photographs of people so that they would appear to be wearing bikinis.

- Politicians in France ask prosecutors to investigate; India demands answers

- Experts have long warned Grok owner xAI about potential misuses of AI-generated content

- Ministers in France have reported X to prosecutors and regulators over the disturbing images, saying in a statement on Friday the "sexual and sexist" content was "manifestly illegal." India's IT ministry said in a letter to X's local unit that the platform failed to prevent Grok's misuse by generating and circulating obscene and sexually explicit content.

- Guardrails not very tight along the track

- Surprised?

TESLA

- Sales awful

- Stock holdingup

- BYD Co. outsold Tesla Inc. in Europe’s two largest electric-vehicle markets last year as the Chinese automaker continues its global expansion.

- BYD registered more than twice as many new vehicles in December as Tesla did in Germany, and outperformed Tesla in the UK with 51,422 registrations compared to Tesla’s 45,513.

- BYD delivered 2.26 million EVs in 2025 to Tesla’s 1.64 million, and has made strong inroads in the UK where Chinese brands have been attracting consumers with cheaper sticker prices.

- NVDA announced it is expanding autonomous driving sector

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

 

Silver and Gold

- As we predicted

- Gold and silver prices fell Wednesday after exchange operator CME Group again hiked the margins on precious metal futures.

- CME Group said in a statement Tuesday that the decision was made “as per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”

- That caused some to sell positions to bring margin requirement in check

- - Should be temporary until metals find their margin equilibrium

Bitcoin

- Starting the year off right

- Up 7% in 2026 after a very poor 2025

- Crypto moving as well

- Safe haven trade, catch up trade or who-knows-what-the-hell trade?

January Effect

- The January Effect is a market phenomenon where stock prices—especially small-cap stocks—tend to rise more in January than in other months.

- Tax-loss selling in December: Investors often sell losing positions at year-end to offset capital gains for tax purposes.

- Reinvestment in January: After the new year, they buy back stocks, creating upward pressure.

- Bonus and cash inflows: Year-end bonuses and new investment allocations often hit the market in January.

- Small-caps up almost 3% YTD

Impressive

- Investors fortunate enough to own Berkshire since 1965, when Buffett took over, realized a return of about 6,100,000%, far above the S&P 500's approximately 46,000% return including dividends.

- Buffett is now officially retired - said to be one (or the) greatest investors of our time

- Buffett, 95, will remain chairman and plans to keep going every day to Berkshire's office in Omaha, Nebraska, about 2 miles (3.2 km) east of his home, and help Abel.

- They still have not completely figured out who will run the equity portfolio after Todd Combs left to join JPM

Kitchen Cabinet Relief

- Steep tariffs on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets and vanities have been delayed by the Trump administration.

- It’s the latest roller coaster of Trump's tariff wars since he returned to office last year.

- The administration is also scaling back on a steep tariff proposed on Italian pasta that would have put the rate at 107%.

Let's talk Venezuela

- The idea that the US is just going to come in an turn everything rosy is dumb - overly simplistic thesis

--- Sets up a bad global potential for overthrowing governments - where does it stop

- The idea that US companies are going to go in there and drill and US is going to reimburse for costs?

--- The country is allied with Russia and China - not US (at this time)

- This is reminiscent of when we opened the doors to Cuba - we opened it up and no one benefited. Maybe this time will be different.

- BUT Venezuela owns the largest proven oil reserves in the world, holding approximately 303 billion barrels as of the end of 2024, which is nearly 18–19% of global reserves. So, that is something.

VZ Oil Production

Drug Price Hikes

- Drugmakers plan to raise U.S. prices on at least 350 branded medications including vaccines against COVID, RSV and shingles and blockbuster cancer treatment Ibrance, even as the Trump administration pressures them for cuts

- The number of price increases for 2026 is up from the same point last year, when drugmakers unveiled plans for raises on more than 250 drugs. The median of this year's price hikes is around 4% - in line with 2025.

-Drugmakers also plan to cut the list prices on around nine drugs. That includes a more than 40% cut for Boehringer Ingelheim's diabetes drug Jardiance and three related treatments.

Greenland

- What are the odds????? (Prediction Markets are on it! https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/market-details?id=791099793%7C20290101%7C0%7C&detail=contract_details)

- “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”

In Closing

- The "AI NOT LESS PEOPLE WORKING" - Scam

- “I would say that we’re actually not hiring fewer people,” AMDs Lisa Su told CNBC’s Jon Fortt on Tuesday from the CES conference in Las Vegas. “Frankly, we’re growing very significantly as a company, so we actually are hiring lots of people, but we’re hiring different people. We’re hiring people who are AI forward.”

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Looking at a weird GDP data point.

Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks.

Gold and Silver – WOW!

Closing out the year – a good one too!

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Warm-Up

- CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants!

- Lots to be excited about and anxious too

- Looking at a weird GDP data point

- Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks

Markets

- Gold and Silver - WOW!

- Closing out the year - a good one too!

- Buyers are still hot to buy any dip

- "Diet" pills coming

Bitters Making Progress 

- Chocolate

-Dark Cherry

-Infusions

- https://highdesertbotanicals.com

NYE Celebration

- Cities across America ring in the new year by dropping unexpected objects:

- Amelia Island, FL drops a giant shrimp.

- Nashville drops a 400lb musical note with 28,140 LEDs.

- Boise, ID, drops a glowing potato.

- Key West, FL, drops an eight-foot ruby-red heel—complete with a drag queen inside!

- In Spain, revelers gulp down 12 grapes—one for each midnight chime—to bring luck for each month

- Denmark - Danes toss old dishes at friends’ doors—large piles of broken crockery at dawn are seen as tokens of good luck.

What a year!

- So many themes in 12 months

- AI, Tariffs, War and Trade War, Fat drugs, Deglobalization

- Data centers, semiconductors, and supporting infrastructure like power and cooling systems.

- Approx: DJIA +13.5%, SP500 +17%, NASDA +21%, BTCUSD -7.6%, Gold +64%, SLV +145%, $DXY -9.5%, EEM +30%

- 2026 - Opportunities and Auld Lang Xiety (Tech still looks frothy in certain names)

Top New Year's Resolutions

- Exercise More

- Eat Healthier

- Save More Money/Get Out of Debt

- Be Happy/Improve Mental Health

- Lose Weight

- Spend More Time with Family & Friends

- Learn a New Skill/Hobby

- Get Organized

Active Management (Funds)

- Same report annually

- A small group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in place for the better part of a decade.

- Around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion.

- The concentration of gains in a few stocks made it harder for active managers to do well, with 73% of equity mutual funds trailing their benchmarks this year, the fourth most in data going back to 2007.

- BUT, there are some areas that it makes sense for active management

---- Equity vs Fixed income and reasoning

--- Efficient markets, boots on the ground

Fat Pill

- The FDA has approved the first-ever GLP-1 pill from Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk.

- Novo Nordisk said the starting dose of 1.5 milligrams will be available in early January in pharmacies and via select telehealth providers with savings offers for $149 per month.

- The approval gives Novo Nordisk a head start over chief rival Eli Lilly, which is racing to launch its own obesity pill.

- Packaged food makers and fast-food restaurants may be forced to overhaul more of their products next year as newly approved, appetite-suppressing GLP-1 pills become available in January

PowerBall

- A ticket sold in Arkansas scored a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot after Wednesday night's draw — one of the richest lottery prizes in U.S. history, landing just in time for Christmas.

- The payout soared after last Monday’s drawing produced no winners, with last-minute ticket sales pushing the jackpot to $1.817 billion. That makes it the second-largest U.S. lottery prize ever and the biggest Powerball of 2025, the lottery website said on Thursday.

- The winning numbers — 4, 25, 31, 52, 59 and the Powerball 19

- Odds: one in 292.2 million.

Silver

- Amazing year!

- Sunday night futures - >$83 then turned hard lower|

- Down 7% on Monday

- Range $83 - $71 (15%) for the day

- Some rumors about a bank collapse due to wrong way position on Silver - forced liquidation and covering....

----- Hard to believe that a bank was short that much silver - but.....

SoKo Breach

- South Korean online retail giant Coupang said it will offer 1.69 trillion South Korean won ($1.17 billion) in compensation to 34 million users affected by a massive data breach disclosed last month.

- That is about 4% of Coupang's annual revenue - but a big chunk of their profit

- $34 per user

NVDA Deal

- Nvidia has yet to issue a public announcement or disclosure regarding its $20 billion Groq deal that CNBC was first to cover on Wednesday.

- Groq described the deal as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement,” a tool that’s been used by tech giants of late in part to avoid regulatory scrutiny.

- Analyst: “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here, though structuring the deal as a non-exclusive license may keep the fiction of competition alive,” Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon wrote in a report.

- Groq will remain an independent company (?)

GDP Consumption

- Something is a bit off....

- With the marketplace costs increasing, this may be more than a one-off expenditure

Q3 GDP Surge

Russia/Ukraine

- Less that an hour after the White House claimed great movement toward peace

- Russian President Putin told President Trump that Russia will revise its negotiating position, raising questions over prospects for peace deal

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Ukraine tried to attack Russian President Putin's residence

- Does anyone even listen to the crap coming out of the White House anymore?

- Did you hear Lutnick trying to explain the 600% reduction in costs for pharmaceuticals? Math wizards!

- - For 2026, my wish is that they continue to work on the job at hand and just shut up

Just for fun - Who is biggest drinker of spirits?

- While there's no single official "heaviest drinker," legendary wrestler Andre the Giant is widely cited as having unmatched capacity, famously downing 119 beers in one sitting (or even up to 156 in other accounts)

Oil

- Crude oil futures down about 9.5% YTD

- Much of the drop due to pick up in production (supply/demand)

- Still a floor with as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc

- What will it take to move up?

Best Auto Stock for 2025?

- GM! Better than ford, Tesla and others (up 55%) - best year from coming out of bankruptcy in 2009

- Ford up 35%

- Mary Barra, CEO selling into the strength - $73 M sold this year (Position down 73% from what she held last year)

- - - Barra has contended for years that stock undervalued. With all of these say what does that say now?

--- Would she ever say shares are overvalued?

More fun stats

- A peer?reviewed 2025 study estimates AI data centers (including indirect usage from electricity generation) consumed 312–765 billion liters of water annually. That’s more than all bottled water consumed worldwide each year

- Direct (on-site) water is used for cooling servers via systems like cooling towers or liquid loops.

Indirect (off-site) water stems from electricity generation—particularly from thermal and nuclear plants, which require significant cooling resources

- ??? Estimates suggest a single standard AI prompt (about 100 words) is linked to around 1.5 liters of water—accounting for the entire chain of consumption. (This is total usage from cooling powr consumption, electricity generation)

- Global AI workloads consumed 50–60 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025—roughly the annual electricity use of a medium-sized country like Switzerland.

- By 2030, AI-related electricity demand could reach 300–500 TWh annually, according to energy analysts—comparable to the entire electricity consumption of countries like France.

Over to Iran

- President Trump tells reporters that if Iran is building up its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to "knock them down" again

--- Wait - I thought we destroyed all of their nuke aspirations???

- - - AND - Iran's currency hit a record low, triggering wave of protests, according to Bloomberg

Fed News

- Top Fed Chair Candidate Odds Narrow Again, With Hassett at 43% and Warsh at 35%

- President Trump still angry at Powell 0threating to sue for incompetence

Odd

- Tesla Inc. published a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting.

- The carmaker posted estimates showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier.

- Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier.

- These are estimates published by analysts - Tesla put on its own site - WHY?

End of Year Stat

- The U.S. national debt is climbing at a rapid pace and has shown no signs of slowing down despite the growing criticism of massive levels of government spending.

- The national debt, which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors, rose to $38,386,384,190,622.68 as of Dec. 30, according to the latest numbers published by the Treasury Department.

- That is an increase of about $5.8 billion daily

- ~$18 per person in the US per day increase ($7,300) - or about the monthly price of leasing a small Mercedes

- Each person in US owes approx $128,000

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

CTP CUP 2025 Participants:

Jim Beaver

Mike Kazmierczak

Joe Metzger

Ken Degel

David Martin

Dean Wormell

Neil Larion

Mary Lou Schwarzer

Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter