Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks....
Say goodbye to the penny!
November heading for a potential fall.
Splits - Are they back?
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NEED A NEW CTP - How About a Crypto ETF? (IBIT)
INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Warm-Up
- Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks....
- Say goodbye to the penny
- November heading for a potential fall
- Prediction - When will US Government Reopen
- New Term - AI Washing
Markets
- OpenAI - even more deals
- Palatir Earnings
- Serepta FLOP
-AMAZON BLOWOUT
- Splits - Are they back?
Election Day - Updates?
The SAME Stories are making their way around
- Seasonally good time for equities
- Don't fight the Fed
- Earnings trend
- Buybacks again
Under/Over on When US Government Opens
- November 10th - Under/Over?
November Outlook
- On the heels of a good October...
- Question: How much more is in the tank for blowouts? Earnings season is about over and what are other catalysts - Aside from Santa?
- More NVDA excitement? More OpenAi deals???
- So much good news is priced in it is hard to imagine HUGE upside
AI Washing
- AI washing is a deceptive marketing tactic where companies exaggerate or falsely claim to use artificial intelligence in their products to appear more innovative and advanced.
- It is also used when layoffs occur to say that there is less need for employees due to advances in technology.
- Corporate giants Amazon, UPS and Target each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 jobs cut this year.
Amazon
- Great earnings - stock up HUGE to ATH ater the report
- Amazon beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line
- Reports Q3 (Sep) GAAP earnings of $1.95 per share, $0.38 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $180.17 bln vs the $177.91 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Co reports Q3 operating income, excluding items, of $21.7 bln vs prior guidance of $15.5-20.5 bln.
- North America segment sales increased 11.2% yr/yr to $106.27 bln.
- International segment sales increased 14.0% yr/yr (+10% CC) to $40.90 bln.
- AWS segment sales rose 20% yr/yr (+20% CC) to $33.01 bln.
- Advertising Services rose 24% yr/yr (+22% CC) to $17.70 bln.
- Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $206-213 bln vs. $208.41 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to Q4 operating income of $21-26 bln.
OpenAi and Amazon
- OpenAI has signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services, and will immediately start accessing Nvidia’s graphics processing units.
- This is one of OpenAI’s biggest moves away from Microsoft, which was the company’s exclusive cloud provider until earlier this year.
- The partnership gives OpenAI the flexibility to scale infrastructure through 2026 and beyond.
- Under the agreement announced on Monday, OpenAI will immediately begin running workloads on AWS infrastructure, tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in the U.S., with plans to expand capacity in the coming years.
- Amazon up another 5%
Palantir Earnings
- Palantir Technologies prelim Q3 $0.21 vs $0.17 FactSet Consensus; revs $1.18 bln vs $1.09 bln FactSet Consensus
- Palantir Technologies sees Q4 revs $1.327-1.331 bln vs $1.18 bln FactSet Consensus
- Stock up slightly - been on a rager lately.... ATH
- Stock down 8% on Tuesday - most of the good news is priced in?
AMD Earnings
- Advanced Micro Devices beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (250.05 -9.60)
- Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.20 per share, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.17; revenues rose 35.6% year/year to $9.25 bln vs the $8.
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1:01:55
DHUnplugged #775: Everything Is Fine
Exhaustion signals
TESLA - a rabbit out of a hat!
Fed meeting in focus
S&P earnings week - its a big one
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Warm-Up
- Don't fight the tape
- Exhaustion signals everywhere - but plenty of money floating around it seems
- Seeing lots of overheated signs.....
- BUT, everything is fine. Nothing to worry about
Markets
- Fed Meeting today and tomorrow - Rate decision on Wednesday
- Biggest week for earnings (S&P)
- ATH - Let' GO! First time over 6,780 for the S&P 500
- Profit margins with those Tariffs - Surprise!
- Emerging markets - On FIRE!
Factoid - Ft Lauderdale Boat Show - The economic impact of the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show (FLIBS) is significant, generating over $1.78 billion in economic output for Florida, supporting more than 100,000 jobs, and creating millions in sales and taxes.
The Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show is considered to be the largest boat show in the world, with over 3 million square feet of exhibition space across multiple marinas.
Godcaster is turning churches into local radio stations - Get the Godcaster app on Android and iOS - An Adam Curry Project
Fed Meeting
- Stock and All time highs
- GOLD, SILVER rocking
- Crypto doing just fine
- GDP good
- Employment good
- Housing market improving
- Limited information about economic activity due to Government is CLOSED
- Inflation is well about Fed's own measures (3%)
- FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES
REMEMBER - NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT - TRUST THE GOVERNMENT
CPI
- The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, both lower than expected.
- Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, less than forecast.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data specifically because the Social Security Administration uses it as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks. Otherwise, the federal government has suspended all data compilation during the shutdown.
Quick Meme Update
- BYND - fell back to earth - down to $1.75 from $7 last week...
- We should have shorted for the game like we talked about
- It was supposed to be the next Apple!
Qualcomm News!
- They are in the game now - seems that Qualcomm now has the goods to compete with AMD and NVDA
- Stock up 15% on this news (AMD and NVDA unfazed)
- Qualcomm’s data center chips are based on the AI parts in Qualcomm’s smartphone chips called Hexagon neural processing units, or NPUs.
- Nearly $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures will be spent on data centers through 2030, with the majority going to systems based around AI chips, according to a McKinsey estimate. (3% of of annual GDP for the ext 5 years)
Why Not Intel?
- The U.S. has formed a $1 billion partnership with Advanced Micro Devices to construct two supercomputers that will tackle large scientific problems ranging from nuclear power to cancer treatments to national security, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and AMD CEO Lisa Su told Reuters.
- The U.S. is building the two machines to ensure the country has enough supercomputers to run increasingly complex experiments that require harnessing enormous amounts of data-crunching capability. The machines can accelerate the process of making scientific discoveries in areas the U.S. is focused on.
NVDA Spending Spree
- Massive announcements today and $1billion stake in Nokia
- Nokia announced on Tuesday that Nvidia is taking a $1 billion stake in the networking company, the latest partnership for the artificial intelligence chipmaker.
- Shares of Nokia soared 26% higher following the news.
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1:03:05
DHUnplugged #774: Right to Win
A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again
Markets is sideways mode
The scary tariffs and a walk back
Apple News........
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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We’re dedicating this episode to Sophia Maria — someone very special who left us too soon...
Warm-Up
- A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again
- Markets is sideways mode
- The scary tariffs and a walk back
- Apple News........
- Announcing the WINNER of the CTP for LAC
Markets
- Yields dropping
- Region bank scare due to 2/3 bankruptcies (new stress)
- Fed stops tightening - why is that?
- TACO trade is back
- Buig Tech earnings on the way
"Just when you think that the coast is clear - the banks will somehow screw things up"
US Government Shutdown - Day 19?
Bitcoin
- Hits all-time high above $125,000 - then pulls back
- Big moves with crypto last couple of weeks
- Trump tariff comments spooked speculators
-- Some coins were down 15-25% after the close on that Friday
GOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!
- Taking a walloping last couple of days...
-- Was really overbought
-- Silver getting hammered too (8% in 2 days)
Gold, Silver BOOM
- Also hits new highs - then backs off a tad
- Major holiday in India
--- First day of Diwali in India
- Buying gold (and silver) on Dhanteras is considered highly auspicious. It symbolizes:
-- Wealth and prosperity, invoking blessings from Goddess Lakshmi (the deity of wealth).
-- Health and longevity, honoring Lord Dhanvantari, the divine healer who is believed to have emerged with the nectar of immortality on this day.
-- Financial stability, as gold is seen as a secure and pure investment.
New Phrase
- Like the use of TAM - Total Addressable Market or other PR phrases....
- "Right to win" is a business strategy concept that refers to a company's ability to enter a competitive market with a high probability of success, based on its unique advantages. It is not an automatic entitlement but is earned through a coherent strategy that aligns a company's "way to play" (its strategy) with its core capabilities and assets. This requires a clear, sustainable competitive advantage over rivals
- Heard this just today TWICE - CEO of NASDAQ and CEO of Goldman Sachs
- OBNOXIOUS!
Super TACO
- What was that?
- Bad lunch or something?
- 100% tariff on China - on a Friday afternoon
- - Vance walks-back on Saturday - Just a negotiating tactic (so dumb)
- Trump Walks back on Sunday
Warnings
- David Solomon (GS CEO)
- Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years.
- Relating to the dot.com bubble: “You’re going to see a similar phenomenon here,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ... I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns, and when that happens, people won’t feel good.”
More Warnings
- Jamie Dimon talks about cockroaches related to the recent bankruptcies (where there is one - there are more...)
- First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier, filed for bankruptcy with over $11.6 billion in liabilities. The company’s use of invoice factoring—allegedly pledging the same receivables to multiple lenders—has triggered a federal investigation and raised alarms about off-balance-sheet financing.
- Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender, is accused of fraudulently pledging risky loan portfolios to multiple banks. The fallout has led to significant write-downs at institutions like JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bancorp.
-- The regional banks under pressure as this is developing.
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1:05:32
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1:05:32
DHUnplugged #773: Best Of Us (2)
HYSTERICAL! Some of the best host stories from over the years.
Recipes and food talk....
How about that Egg book?
Shotguns and Booze anyone ? Clay Pigeons...
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
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Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
The Closest to The Pin for
Lithium Americas (LAC)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
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52:25
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52:25
DHUnplugged #772: Best of Us (1)
ROTFL - Some of the best host stories from over the years.
Shoes off at airports anyone?
Vinegar book?
How about economics based on train count?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
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Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
The Closest to The Pin for
Lithium Americas (LAC)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
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New Zealand