The NZ Property Market Podcast

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Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.
In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.
The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?
Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.
This week we discuss:
The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).
The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.
The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.
Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.
The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Welcome to a special regional guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast. This week, Head of Research Nick Goodall returns to his hometown roots to interview Jemma Scott-Davidson, owner and mortgage advisor at Loan Market. 
With over 20 years of commercial banking experience before launching her independent advisory firm, Jemma provides an invaluable, boots-on-the-ground temperature check of the winterless north.
Moving past the mainstream media's "boom or bust" narratives, Jemma explains why the current environment is actually a return to a "normal" market driven by fundamental life choices. 
We analyse the distinct activity occurring within the $650,000 to $750,000 sweet spot, expose the pricing standoff affecting properties purchased at the late-2021 peak, and break down the three clear interest rate fixing strategies currently emerging among New Zealand borrowers navigating the post-MPS landscape.
This week we discuss:
The Whangārei Sweet Spot: Why properties priced between $650,000 and $750,000 are seeing steady, healthy transaction volumes from regular families.
The Million-Dollar Value Gap: Navigating the lack of quality stock in the $800,000 to $1,000,000 bracket and why overpriced listings are distorting buyer expectations.
The Peak COVID Standoff: Why un-capitulated vendors who bought in late 2021 are stalling market velocity.
Three Emerging Fixing Behaviours: 1. The Confident Can-Kickers: Rolling on 6-month fixes to capture short-term savings while waiting for geopolitical oil conflicts to settle. 2. The Long-Term Securers: Locking in 5-year terms to protect fragile household cash flows from further volatility. 3. The Risk Splitters: Tranching debt across 2 and 3-year terms to avoid total structural exposure.
Why DTIs are Stalling: Why high bank test rates are capturing debt-to-income limits by default, leaving equity and deposits as the primary hurdles.
Innovation in Commercial Lending: Real-world examples of Northland businesses navigating tight cash flows through clever asset diversification and labour hoarding.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The structural shift in the New Zealand property market is cementing itself in the data. While the latest Mapping the Market release reveals a highly patchy horizontal flatline across the regions, the newly updated May Buyer Classification data exposes a deep divide in buyer behaviour. Mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs) have taken a decisive step back in the second quarter, dropping to a 22.4% market share as the compounding realities of tight yields, capital growth re-evaluations, and shifting political polls weigh on investor confidence.
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down why first home buyers continue to defy gravity, capturing a near-record 28.5% market share. We also deliver regional deep dives into the shifting demographics of Hamilton, Tauranga, and Dunedin, preview the upcoming Q1 GDP metrics alongside Tuesday’s crucial Selected Price Indexes, and analyse how an economic slowdown across the ditch in Australia could quietly reshape New Zealand's net migration baseline.
This week we discuss:
The Investor Retraction: Why mortgaged investors have pulled back for two consecutive quarters, hitting a soft 22.4% market share in Q2 so far.
First Home Buyers Target Records: Inside the relentless 28.5% market share run and the mechanics driving low-deposit entry pathways.
Regional Centre Disruption: Analysing Tauranga’s equity-rich mover surge (33%) and a surprising jump in first-time buyers to 25%.
The Dunedin Yield Matrix: Why gross student accommodation yields look attractive, but aging housing stock is widening the gap between gross and net returns.
Net Migration Rebound: Tracking the steady climb back to 22,800 annual net arrivals and why high rental listings are keeping a ceiling on structural rent spikes.
GDP vs. Selected Price Indexes: Previewing the consensus 1.0% Q1 GDP growth figure and explaining why Tuesday’s monthly inflation data holds the real key to the July OCR decision.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
The May Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results are officially in, delivering a perfectly flat 0.0% national movement. While regional variability persists under the surface - with Christchurch nudging up 0.4% and Wellington softening by 0.3% - the broader market continues to track sideways as buyers hold the pricing power but sellers refuse to capitulate. 
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson answer a brilliant listener question from Matthew, digging into the data to debunk the mainstream media narrative that a "glut" of townhouses is dragging down the Auckland property market. 
We also unpack the surprising resilience of the new build sector with building consents climbing to 39,000, dismantle claims that New Zealand has become a "tax haven" for Australian investors, and analyse RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s latest hints on short-term inflation.
This week we discuss:
May HVI National Breakdown: Why a 0.0% national change signals a long, plain-vanilla winter of sideways tracking.
The Auckland Townhouse Myth: Breaking down the suburb-level data proving townhouse values are performing similarly to standalone homes (both down 3% annually).
Building Consent Resilience: Why the current annualised track of 39,000 consents shows a construction sector vastly more robust than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
The Australian "Tax Haven" Headline: Dismantling trans-Tasman media hype regarding stamp duty, bright-line changes, and cross-border tax complexities.
Paul Conway’s Inflation Hints: Insights from the RBNZ Chief Economist's recent webinar and what it reveals about the internal vs. external OCR committee split.
The 5-Month Election Runway: Anticipating the upcoming structural slowdown as capital gains tax debates re-emerge.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.
Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.
This week we discuss:
The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.
The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.
Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.
The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie’s take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.
April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.
Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government’s infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.