The NZ Property Market Podcast

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New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2 2026 - the highest level in over a decade. However, beneath the headline number lies an encouraging trend for the residential property market: total employment actually expanded, meaning the unemployment jump was driven by an expanding labour force rather than mass job destruction.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Q2 labour market data. They examine why insulated homeowner employment is keeping non-performing loans and mortgagee sales at near-record lows, alongside a striking North-South Island economic divide where North Island unemployment sits at 6.0% compared to just 3.7% in the South Island. 
The guys also break down Kelvin’s latest analysis of Reserve Bank mortgage lending data. They cover why 50% to 60% of first-home buyers continue to secure low-deposit finance, the ongoing borrower shift toward two-year fixed mortgage terms, and why interest-only lending remains strictly controlled despite broader economic headwinds. 
This week we discuss:
Q2 Labour Market Breakdown: Why 5.6% unemployment is driven by growing labour supply rather than job destruction. 
Housing Market Immunity: How steady employment among existing homeowners prevents non-performing loans and forced sales. 
Regional Labour Disparities: The North Island (6.0%) versus South Island (3.7%) unemployment divide, led by Northland (8.8%) and Auckland (6.5%). 
Reserve Bank Lending Trends: Key takeaways from mortgage data, including active refinancing and low interest-only volumes. 
Mortgage Term Shifts: Why borrowers are increasingly locking in two-year fixed rates as interest rate insurance. 
September 2nd OCR Runway: How subdued wage growth (2.0%) impacts Reserve Bank inflation expectations ahead of the upcoming OCR statement. 
🔗 Read Kelvin’s latest Pulse article on RBNZ lending data: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/mortgage-lending-trends-10-things-to-know-right-now
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Is Australia on the verge of an extended New Zealand-style property slump, or will structural differences across the ditch protect the Aussie market?
In this special Trans-Tasman edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief NZ Economist Kelvin Davidson are joined by special guest Tim Lawless, Executive Research Director at Cotality Asia Pacific (celebrating nearly 20 years with the firm).
Together, the team conducts a thorough comparison of the post-COVID housing cycles in New Zealand and Australia. They explore why NZ values experienced a sharper 40% boom followed by a prolonged -17% drawdown, while Australia’s market rebounded rapidly off the back of a chronic physical housing deficit.
The panel compares key macro settings, including NZ’s 90% fixed-rate mortgage structure versus Australia’s 60%+ variable debt, mortgage servicing burdens pushing 50% of income in Australia versus easing to 37% in NZ, and the potential impacts of Australia's recent federal budget tax adjustments to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT).
This week we discuss:
Boom & Bust Trajectories: Comparing NZ’s 40% post-COVID surge and -17% fall with Australia’s 25% peak and swift recovery.
Mortgage Debt Mechanics: Why NZ’s 90% fixed-rate debt delays monetary pass-through while Australia’s variable market (~6.2% rates) feels immediate rate shocks.
Affordability Ceilings: Analysing mortgage serviceability burdens in Australia (pushing 50% of pre-tax income) versus NZ (peaked at 50%, now eased to 37%).
Physical Supply Disparity: How NZ’s townhouse boom reduced housing shortages while Australia faces severe ongoing supply deficits.
Tax Policy & Negative Gearing: What Australia's budget changes mean for investor demand and whether Aussie capital will flow to NZ.
Key Trans-Tasman Lessons: What Australian buyers and policymakers can learn from NZ’s extended multi-year property adjustment.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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National property values recorded their fourth consecutive monthly drop in July, slipping -0.3% to extend the quarterly decline to -1.0%. On this week's episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results. We explore the deepening North-South divide: while Auckland (-0.7% month) and Wellington (-0.8% month) continue to drag, Christchurch (+0.1%) and Dunedin (+0.2%) remain resilient, and Invercargill has surged to a new record median peak of $565,000 (+8.2% YoY).
The guys also discuss a tongue-in-cheek LinkedIn post by Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod, which highlighted a statistical correlation between per-capita cow populations and house price growth. We explain why strong agricultural export returns are buffering rural centres like Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie, while urban service-driven economies lag under high interest rates and pre-election policy uncertainty.
Finally, we preview Wednesday's Q2 official labour market release following June's +0.1% filled jobs figure, evaluate why the unemployment rate could rise from 5.3% to 5.5% due to labour force expansion rather than mass layoffs, and review ANZ's July business confidence bounce.
This week we discuss:
July Home Value Index: Why national values fell -0.3% over the month and -1.0% over the quarter.
The North-South Divide: Auckland and Wellington value softness versus Christchurch (+3.6% YoY) and Dunedin (+3.3% YoY).
Invercargill's New Record: Why the southern city hit $565,000 alongside agricultural hubs Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie.
Satish Ranchhod’s Cow Post: How agricultural strength is directly supporting regional home values.
Labour Market Preview: Why a forecast unemployment rise to 5.5% reflects a growing workforce rather than job destruction.
Election Hesitation: How investor sentiment is cooling as buyers pause ahead of upcoming political tax debates.
Listener Feedback: Addressing a Spotify comment on Christchurch suburb competition and the OCR path.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this special guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall is joined by Ryan Hannigan and Ben Grant from Loan Market Dunedin. Together, they explore the unique dynamics of the Otago and Southland property markets, where housing values and sales activity continue to outperform many northern regions.
Ryan and Ben break down the on-the-ground drivers in Dunedin, including how the multi-billion-dollar Dunedin Hospital build is attracting families, why first-home buyers are actively targeting the $600,000 to $700,000 price bracket, and how infill townhouse developments are transforming traditional suburbs. They also expose a key financing hurdle: why trading banks apply strict boarding house lending criteria to room-by-room student rentals, creating friction for investors despite high demand and steady yields.
The conversation also covers broader mortgage trends across New Zealand, highlighting that over 50% of buyers in June purchased with less than a 20% deposit. Ryan and Ben share practical advice on navigating 2–3 year fixed rate terms (4.99%–5.19%), managing test interest rates, and avoiding common pitfalls when refixing online or relying on unverified AI mortgage advice.
This week we discuss:
Dunedin Market Resilience: Why median values around $623,000 keep the region highly accessible for first-home buyers and relocating families.
Student Rental Financing: Why banks enforce boarding house rules on room-by-room student lets and how parents are stepping in to buy for studying children.
Infill Development Growth: How developers are acquiring older homes to build modern townhouses, mirroring Christchurch’s urban densification model.
The Southland Boom: Why Invercargill and broader Southland continue to buck national trends with strong job security and affordable $400,000 starter homes.
The Low-Deposit Reality: Unpacking data showing more than half of recent borrowers entered the market with under a 20% deposit, including Kāinga Ora 5% options.
Mortgage Structuring Strategy: Why clients are locking in 2–3 year fixed rates for budget certainty rather than chasing short-term rate dips.
Advisor Insights: How to secure a "real estate pre-approval" to stand out in multi-offer scenarios, and how to filter out social media mortgage advice.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
Residential property transactions across New Zealand have recorded six consecutive months of year-on-year declines. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest monthly Chart Pack data, revealing that first-half 2026 sales volumes reached 43,183 - down 4.2% compared to the same period in 2025. We explore why high listing stock and broader economic caution are keeping buyers and sellers in a stalemate, while noting that a lack of distress selling continues to keep the market anchored.
The guys also dissect the Q2 CPI inflation release, which landed at 4.1% annually. While slightly above the Reserve Bank's revised 3.9% forecast, the print landed directly in line with commercial bank expectations. We break down the stark divergence within the data: tradable inflation spiked to 4.9% off the back of global fuel pressures, while domestic non-tradable inflation eased slightly to 3.4%. Furthermore, annual rental growth has slowed to just 0.5% - the weakest rate of increase in more than two decades.
Finally, we discuss Stats NZ's official roadmap to introduce a monthly CPI release by August 2027, preview the upcoming July Home Value Index, and evaluate why the RBNZ remains firmly on track for an Official Cash Rate increase at the September 2nd statement.
This week we discuss:
Six Months of Falling Sales: Why H1 2026 transaction volumes contracted 4.2% year-on-year, missing early expectations of a 5% to 10% recovery.
Regional Sales Dynamics: Analysing the rolling three-month volume trends, from Dunedin’s 7.4% rise to Auckland’s 7.8% drop.
The 4.1% CPI Reality Check: Breaking down the Q2 inflation print and why headline numbers drive consumer inflation expectations.
Tradable vs. Non-Tradable Divergence: How fuel costs drove tradables to 4.9% while non-tradable domestic pressures softened to 3.4%.
20-Year Low for Rent Growth: What annual rental growth of just 0.5% means for residential landlord yields.
The Path to September 2nd: Why the Reserve Bank is expected to push the OCR closer to its neutral target (~3.25%) despite weak consumer activity.
Official Monthly CPI Roadmap: Stats NZ's timeline to transition from quarterly inflation tracking to monthly Tier-1 reporting by August 2027.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.