The NZ Property Market Podcast

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National sales volumes have dropped for the eighth consecutive month - down nearly 12% year-on-year in August. But when you look past market share percentages to raw buyer transactions, a clear driver emerges: relocating owner-occupiers (movers) are choosing to hold back. While they still completed over 20,000 transactions in the last year, their activity has dropped by 1,500 to 2,000 deals compared to historical norms.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Buyer Classification raw numbers. They explain why cautious movers are keeping sales subdued, and why first-home buyers are surging near record volumes (25,000 purchases across a 90,000-transaction market).
The team also shares on-the-ground observations from their full-day development tour across Auckland with CBRE valuers, tackling the townhouse "oversupply" myth, developer cash-back incentives, and why the CRL is changing buyer calculus. 
Finally, they dive into the Q2 GDP numbers (+0.2% growth led by construction and manufacturing) and evaluate whether economic resilience makes an October 28 OCR rate hike more than a 50/50 bet.
This week we discuss:
The Mover Pullback: Why relocating owner-occupiers are taking a breather, dropping 1,500 to 2,000 annual deals while still completing 20,000+ purchases.
First-Home Buyer Boom in Context: How FHBs secured 25,000 purchases out of 90,000 total sales - approaching peak-boom volumes.
Auckland Field Tour Insights: Key observations from touring master-planned communities (Tāmaki Regeneration, Flat Bush) with CBRE valuers.
Townhouse Oversupply Debunked: Why well-located, two-story developments are thriving while narrow three-story legacy builds struggle.
Q2 GDP Rebound (+0.2%): How construction, manufacturing, and wholesaling helped the economy avoid contraction.
October OCR Odds Rising: Why resilient GDP growth and sticky fuel inflation could push the RBNZ to hike rates on October 28.
Weekend Sport: Kelvin docking lambs in Canterbury, heartbreak for the Warriors, and the Taniwha going top of the NPC ladder!
 🔗 Read Kelvin's Buyer Classification Pulse Article: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-buyer-breakdown-which-groups-are-behind-the-sales-volume-decline 
🔗 Watch Nick's 5-Minute Monthly Video Summary: Cotality NZ Monthly Property & Economic Update - September 
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The latest suburb-level data confirms that the housing market's gentle downward drift is highly widespread, with approximately 79% of house suburbs and 74% of townhouse suburbs recording value drops over the three months to September.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss Cotality’s newly released Mapping the Market interactive data. They outline the sharp geographical splits - where Auckland and Wellington suburbs sit firmly at the bottom of the pile, while farming-backed hubs in Canterbury, Southland, and Otago continue to show structural resilience.
The team also looks ahead to Thursday's highly anticipated Q2 GDP release. With the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) marking its 14th consecutive month above neutral expansion and the services sector (PSI) edging back into growth at 51.2, the guys discuss whether a surprisingly resilient economy gives the RBNZ a green light to hike the OCR again sooner rather than later.
This week we discuss:
Mapping the Market Suburb Release: Why nearly 80% of suburbs saw declines, and how to use the interactive map to compare townhouses versus standalone homes.
The Regional Agrarian Shield: Why farming economies are keeping southern suburbs buoyant while services-heavy Auckland and Wellington soften
Economic Green Shoots: Analyzing the 14th consecutive month of PMI expansion (+50.0) and the PSI’s return to positive territory at 51.2.
Q2 GDP Preview: Why major bank forecasts of a +0.1% to +0.3% lift show the economy is weathering geopolitical headwinds better than expected.
OCR October vs. December: Will a resilient GDP track encourage the RBNZ to implement a pre-election rate hike on October 28?
🔗 Explore the interactive Mapping the Market map: https://www.cotality.com/nz/press-releases/regional-affordability-shines-in-flat-nz-housing-market 
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The August Cotality Home Value Index is out, showing a -0.4% monthly decline across Aotearoa New Zealand—marking the fifth consecutive month of value contraction. However, looking at property purely through the lens of the "fall from the peak" might be completely skewing our view of the market.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the August data. They explore why looking at the 10-year compound annual growth rate (+3.4% per year) offers a much more realistic picture of the "new normal" for capital gains, while stripping out the artificial post-COVID boom and bust.
The guys also break down why Auckland apartments plunged -7.8% over the past year compared to just -2.2% for standalone houses, why dwelling consents keep defying gravity (hitting a 3-year high of 41,000 annually), and review the major trading banks' reactions to last week's 2.75% OCR decision. Plus, Father's Day debriefs, scorched almonds, and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.
This week we discuss:
August HVI Breakdown: Why values fell -0.4% in August (down -1.0% YoY), led by weakness in Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington (-0.6%) and Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland (-0.5%).
The 10-Year Growth Benchmark: Why the 10-year average annual growth rate of 3.4% represents the true baseline for long-term property performance.
Property Type Divide: The stark split in Tāmaki Makaurau, where apartments dropped -7.8% over the past year while standalone houses fell only -2.2%.
Construction Defies Gravity: Why July dwelling consents rose 10% YoY (41,000 annual running total) despite rising supply and cost pressures.
The Bank Consensus on OCR: How ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, and Kiwibank interpreted the RBNZ's measured 25bps hike to 2.75%.
Weekend Sports Wrap: All Blacks fall short in the Ellis Park cauldron, Father's Day rowing sessions, and Northland's upcoming Shield defence against Waikato.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. While the hike brings monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, the tone of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement was distinctly cautious and data-dependent.
In this special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the RBNZ’s decision just 40 minutes after its release. They break down the consensus vote, analyse why a 4-to-2 committee split on inflation risks led to the hike, and explain why an October rate rise looks far less likely with the general election looming.
The guys also dive into the Reserve Bank's detailed economic forecasts - including flat house price projections for the next 3 to 4 quarters - and explain why fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to see a sudden spike off the back of this decision.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
Property sales volumes have fallen for the seventh consecutive month, drifting down 6% year-on-year in July. Yet amidst the broader market slowdown, first-home buyers are executing an aggressive counter-cyclical surge—capturing a record-breaking 29% market share.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (dialling in from his car outside Hamilton following Northland's historic Ranfurly Shield defence) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the newly released July Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why buyers maintain total pricing power with listing inventory elevated, and why annual sales are tracking closer to 90,000 rather than the 100,000 anticipated earlier this year.
The guys also deliver a comprehensive preview of Wednesday’s pivotal Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision. Kelvin breaks down the latest economic indicators—including the NZ Activity Index (+2.6%), filled jobs (+0.3%), and steadying business confidence—and explains why another 25-basis-point OCR hike appears locked in. Plus, an impassioned debrief on the Taniwha defending the Ranfurly Shield in Whangārei and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.