The NZ Property Market Podcast

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The August Cotality Home Value Index is out, showing a -0.4% monthly decline across Aotearoa New Zealand—marking the fifth consecutive month of value contraction. However, looking at property purely through the lens of the "fall from the peak" might be completely skewing our view of the market.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the August data. They explore why looking at the 10-year compound annual growth rate (+3.4% per year) offers a much more realistic picture of the "new normal" for capital gains, while stripping out the artificial post-COVID boom and bust.
The guys also break down why Auckland apartments plunged -7.8% over the past year compared to just -2.2% for standalone houses, why dwelling consents keep defying gravity (hitting a 3-year high of 41,000 annually), and review the major trading banks' reactions to last week's 2.75% OCR decision. Plus, Father's Day debriefs, scorched almonds, and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.
This week we discuss:
August HVI Breakdown: Why values fell -0.4% in August (down -1.0% YoY), led by weakness in Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington (-0.6%) and Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland (-0.5%).
The 10-Year Growth Benchmark: Why the 10-year average annual growth rate of 3.4% represents the true baseline for long-term property performance.
Property Type Divide: The stark split in Tāmaki Makaurau, where apartments dropped -7.8% over the past year while standalone houses fell only -2.2%.
Construction Defies Gravity: Why July dwelling consents rose 10% YoY (41,000 annual running total) despite rising supply and cost pressures.
The Bank Consensus on OCR: How ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, and Kiwibank interpreted the RBNZ's measured 25bps hike to 2.75%.
Weekend Sports Wrap: All Blacks fall short in the Ellis Park cauldron, Father's Day rowing sessions, and Northland's upcoming Shield defence against Waikato.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. While the hike brings monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, the tone of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement was distinctly cautious and data-dependent.
In this special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the RBNZ’s decision just 40 minutes after its release. They break down the consensus vote, analyse why a 4-to-2 committee split on inflation risks led to the hike, and explain why an October rate rise looks far less likely with the general election looming.
The guys also dive into the Reserve Bank's detailed economic forecasts - including flat house price projections for the next 3 to 4 quarters - and explain why fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to see a sudden spike off the back of this decision.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
Property sales volumes have fallen for the seventh consecutive month, drifting down 6% year-on-year in July. Yet amidst the broader market slowdown, first-home buyers are executing an aggressive counter-cyclical surge—capturing a record-breaking 29% market share.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (dialling in from his car outside Hamilton following Northland's historic Ranfurly Shield defence) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the newly released July Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why buyers maintain total pricing power with listing inventory elevated, and why annual sales are tracking closer to 90,000 rather than the 100,000 anticipated earlier this year.
The guys also deliver a comprehensive preview of Wednesday’s pivotal Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision. Kelvin breaks down the latest economic indicators—including the NZ Activity Index (+2.6%), filled jobs (+0.3%), and steadying business confidence—and explains why another 25-basis-point OCR hike appears locked in. Plus, an impassioned debrief on the Taniwha defending the Ranfurly Shield in Whangārei and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
After years of national hand-wringing, housing affordability in New Zealand has officially returned to long-term averages. Falling house prices, lower interest rates, and rising wages have combined to bring the value-to-income ratio back down to 6.7 - exactly where the historical average has sat since 2004.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the highly anticipated 6-monthly Housing Affordability Report. They discuss why mortgage servicing now takes up 40% of median household income, why years to save a deposit has dropped to 8.9 years, and why regional data paints vastly different pictures for centres like Wellington versus Tauranga.
The guys also dive into the latest macroeconomic data - including softer inflation and a slight lift in card spending - and explain why "good news is bad" when it comes to the Reserve Bank’s upcoming OCR decision. Plus, Nick delivers a passionate wrap-up of an unforgettable weekend of rugby, from the Taniwha claiming the Ranfurly Shield to the All Blacks' epic win at Ellis Park.
This week we discuss:
Affordability Returns: Why all four major housing affordability measures are finally back to (or below) long-term historical averages.
The Mortgage Burden: How servicing a new mortgage at an 80% LVR now requires 40% of gross household income.
Regional Nuance: Why Wellington is now the most affordable main centre, and why Tauranga’s numbers are skewed by wealth over income.
Macro Data Mix-Up: How softer price indices and slightly stronger card spending impact the upcoming OCR call.
The 'Good News is Bad' OCR Dilemma: Why an improving economy might just give the RBNZ the confidence to hold or hike rates again.
Rugby Wrap: The Taniwha's historic Ranfurly Shield win, the All Blacks at Ellis Park, and the Warriors topping the NRL table.
 🔗 Read the full Housing Affordability Report:  https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-housing-affordability-returns-to-long-term-norms-as-buyers-reap-the-benefits
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
Property resellers are feeling the squeeze. In Q2 2026, 13% of New Zealand properties sold for a loss - a significant shift from the peak of the market where losses were practically zero. However, the data reveals a stark contrast based on one critical factor: how long you hold the property.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive deep into the latest Q2 Pain & Gain report. They unpack why the median hold period for properties selling at a profit has hit a record high of 10.4 years, while those selling at a loss were typically held for just 4.3 years (purchased right at the market peak).
The guys also break down regional and property-type disparities, explaining why Auckland is seeing higher loss ratios (20.9%) compared to Wellington (18.4%), heavily driven by the apartment sector. Plus, Kelvin clarifies the latest net migration figures - unpacking the difference between New Zealand citizen departures and net new arrivals, and why this is keeping rental growth surprisingly subdued.
This week we discuss:
Q2 Pain & Gain Realities: Why 13% of properties are now selling at a loss, and how stricter credit controls prevented a GFC-style slump.
The 10-Year Golden Rule: The record-high 10.4-year median hold period for profitable sales versus the 4.3-year danger zone.
Auckland's Apartment Drag: Why flats and apartments are driving Auckland's loss ratio up to 20.9%, and the yield vs. capital growth trade-off.
The Migration Misconception: Breaking down the 17,500 net migration figure - including net 37,500 NZ citizens leaving versus net 55,000 new migrants arriving.
Rental Market Squeeze: How low household creation (people staying flatting or with parents) is holding rents down despite population growth.
Affordability Preview: A sneak peek at the upcoming housing affordability report and how dropping interest rates are shifting the dial.
🔗 Read the full Q2 Pain & Gain Report
🔗 Watch the latest Monthly Video Update
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.