The NZ Property Market Podcast

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With the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) landing this Wednesday, the economic data is sending an interesting signal. April's electronic card transactions were 1.3% month-on-month—with fuel spending down 2% despite rising prices. It’s decent evidence that "demand destruction" is actively under way as households fundamentally shift their behaviour.
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson preview the upcoming OCR decision and why Nick is sliding off the fence to join the Kiwibank camp, lowering the probability of a July rate hike to 40%. We also pull apart the latest Monthly Chart Pack data, which reveals a consecutive four-month drop in year-on-year sales volumes, forcing a major downward revision to our 2026 housing transaction forecasts.
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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick’s onstage debate with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.
This week we discuss:
Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.
The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.
Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.
April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.
The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.
Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.
Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The latest Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report is out, and the data is a clear win for those entering the market. With a 27.5% market share, FHBs are near record levels, but the real story is what they are buying - 77% are securing standalone houses, up from just 70% a few years ago.
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson dive into the devil in the detail of the Q1 labour market stats. Why did unemployment drop to 5.3% despite a loose labour market, and what does the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) tell us about the $100 million cashback war of late 2025?
This week we discuss:
FHB Report Q1: Why FHBs are getting more house for their money and why the average age has dropped to 35.
81% LVRs: The Westpac data confirms that low-deposit lending is the engine room for first-time buyers right now.
Labour Market Surprise: Analysing the 5.3% unemployment rate and why contained wage growth is actually good news for OCR timing.
The FSR Breakdown: The RBNZ’s take on sustainable house prices and the cost of the bank cashback wars.
OCR Debate: Nick previews his Devil's Advocate session with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr.
Personal Wrap: A shout-out to Sky Sports’ Jeff McTainsh and a victory for the Phoenix Women.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
The Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report May 2026
In this special guest episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Satish Ranchhod from the Westpac Economics team to discuss the latest co-branded First Home Buyer Report.
They cover off the Iran conflict, the implications for NZ's economy, inflation, and interest rates, then what it might all mean for first home buyers.
Lately FHBs have remained a dominant force in the property market, accounting for high shares of transactions, and also getting 'more house for their money' - supported by a soft market, plenty of listings, and low deposit lending allowances at the banks.
Indeed, Westpac's own data shows that the average LVR has recently gone above 80%, while the average FHB age has dipped a little.
Ultimately, it's a continued good news story - and FHBs still have reason for optimism in the coming months too.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in, and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue to climb?

We also dive into a surprising dose of 'hopium' from the March economic data. With filled jobs up 0.3% and the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) hitting its fastest growth in over three years, we ask if the economy is showing more resilience than expected, or if these are simply lagging indicators of a pre-conflict world.
This week, we discuss:
April HVI results: The national median is up 0.1%, but regional variability is the real story.
The regional divide: Why Auckland’s supply pipeline and Wellington’s 'vibe' shift are weighing on values compared to the farming-backed strength of the south.
March economic resilience: Filled jobs grew by 0.3%, and the NZAC rose 3.2% - could Q1 GDP be stronger than the RBNZ expects?
Labour market preview: Why we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% this week.
RBNZ watch: A preview of Wednesday’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) and the ongoing quest for transparency.
First home buyer report: A teaser for our upcoming release with Westpac, including surprising data on buyer ages.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.