The NZ Property Market Podcast

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First-home buyers are occupying a larger share of the New Zealand property market than at any point in the last two decades.
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into the June Buyer Classification data to complete a full wrap of the second quarter. The numbers reveal that first-home buyers secured a record-breaking 28.3% market share across Q2, capitalising on lower house prices, KiwiSaver access, and high-LVR bank lending allowances.
Meanwhile, the landscape for investors is fracturing. While small-scale "mum and dad" buyers holding two properties are steady, large-scale investors owning ten or more properties saw their market activity fall in Q2 down to 2.3%. We break down the combination of high bank serviceability testing, debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, flat rents, and growing election anxieties regarding interest deductibility that are driving this retreat.
The guys also look at the sudden breakdown of the Iran-US peace deal and the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz, analysing how renewed global supply chain uncertainty impacts the path toward the next Official Cash Rate review on September 2nd.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Reserve Bank has delivered an unexpected baseline shift. This week on a special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ’s unanimous decision to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.25% to 2.5%.
Despite a fracturing market consensus on Monday, the Monetary Policy Committee voted with total consensus to remove some economic accommodation. We break down the structural reasons behind the hike, including the RBNZ’s strategic pushback against recent easing in wholesale interest rates and a dropping exchange rate that threatened to undo their inflation-fighting progress.
The guys look past the headline figure to analyse the increased transparency under Governor Anna Bremen, exploring how individual committee members view current inflation balances. We map out what this means for a flattening housing market - currently down 0.9% annually at the end of June - and preview the five pillars of macro uncertainty that will dictate the next interest rate decision on September 2nd.
This week we discuss:
The Unanimous Decision: Why the committee completely abandoned its previous 3-all split to push the OCR to 2.5%.
The Financial Conditions Pushback: How dropping wholesale market interest rates forced the RBNZ to intervene to prevent premature economic stimulus.
The Committee Split: Dissecting the internal RBNZ friction between members warning of structural inflation risks and those viewing them as balanced.
The 3.9% Inflation Reality: Why the RBNZ downgraded its near-term Q2 CPI expectations from 4.3% while simultaneously lifting interest rates.
The Housing Impact: Why retail mortgage rates are unlikely to shift aggressively despite the higher OCR baseline.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Does high climate risk actually destroy residential property value, or does it create a structural entry point for desperate buyers? 
This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack a groundbreaking new analytics release tracking the long-term price impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle across Hawke's Bay and Auckland. 
The data exposes a fascinating climate paradox: high-risk homes are retaining immense price resilience purely because their discounted entry points attract intense demand from affordability-squeezed buyers. Check https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights from Tuesday morning.
The guys also deliver a full, high-stakes preview of Wednesday's structural Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision. With major trading banks split down the centre, we map out the exact economic crosswinds - including a sharp rebound in business confidence, marginally increasing filled jobs, and a structural potential oversupply of global oil - that will decide the outcome. 
Plus, Kelvin reports back on his live experience under the roof at Christchurch's brand-new Te Kaha stadium for the All Blacks' season opener.
This week we discuss:
The June HVI Breakdown: Assessing the national 0.2% monthly dip and the ongoing underperformance of Auckland and Wellington City.
The Cyclone Gabrielle Audit: Unpacking the data proving why flood-prone properties hold their values stubbornly against natural hazard warning systems.
The Government Insurance Backstop: Why the days of automated state buyouts are ending and what it means for long-term un-insurability.
The July OCR Split: Analysing the 3-2 bank economist division and the voting mechanics required to break a three-all committee deadlock.
The Green Electrification Shift: How the permanent structural drop in global fossil fuel demand is quietly putting downward pressure on domestic inflation.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The underlying data is flashing clear warning signs of economic consolidation. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the latest New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) and the Reserve Bank’s weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast. The metrics reveal a stark economic slowdown in Q2, dropping bank expectations for a July Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase into a decisive holding pattern as major institutions pull back their forecast increases.
The structural highlight of the week centres on the newly released Reserve Bank mortgage lending data for May. For the first time in two solid years, year-on-year lending growth has ground to an absolute halt, printing a flat $8.6 billion line. We look past the national figures to uncover the real structural landscape: a massive $1.67 trillion asset baseline backed by just $398 billion in total debt. While an aggregate LVR of 24% suggests immense national stability, we expose the distribution trap masking the reality that one-third of New Zealand households carry 100% of the entire country's mortgage debt burden.
This week we discuss:
The GDP Proxy Pivot: Why the Reserve Bank's dynamic, weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast is eclipsing the traditional NZAC index as a truer indicator of a flatlining Q2 economy.
The Lending Streak Snapped: Dissecting May’s flat $8.6 billion lending print and what it means for forward real estate velocity.
The 24% Equity Illusion: Why a $1.67 trillion asset class hides the severe debt concentration weighing exclusively on the mortgaged third of the population.
First-Home Buyer Domination: The raw deal metrics proving first-time buyers are actively expanding transaction volumes while movers collapse by 11%.
The Landlord Tax Premium: How evolving political rhetoric from Labour and the Green Party regarding interest deductibility is shifting the long-term investor baseline.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!
Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.
In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.
The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?
Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.
This week we discuss:
The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).
The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.
The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.
Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.
The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.