Economy Watch

Kia ora,
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news commodity and financial markets delivered some rather spectacular gyrations over the weekend, forcing investors to review how they are going to deal with the 'certainty of uncertainty' enveloping global markets.
But first this week, our local coverage will be dominated by Wednesday's Q4-2025 labour market report. If it brings a notable improvement from the expected no-change 5.3% jobless rate, then the recent high inflation rate (3.1%) will get more of the RBNZ's attention at its February 18 meeting.
Also this week, the RBA is meeting tomorrow to review Australia's monetary policy settings. A +25 bps change is now expected taking this rate to 3.85%, a sharp adjustment in sentiment following the strong December CPI data (3.8%).
Elsewhere, important labour market data will come from the US at the end of the week via their January non-farm payrolls report. Markets expect a modest +70,000 job gain there, slightly better than the disappointing December +50,000 rise. Before that, there will be their JOLTs report, the ADP jobs report, and the layoff data for January. Then we get the first February consumer sentiment report, and it is expected to stay near its historic lows.
There will be many more PMIs reported this week. And the EU will release its CPI data update, the ECB will review its policy rate. India will too. As will England.
In Japan, they will release business sentiment survey results.
But the week has already started in China, with dour official PMI survey results released. Their factory sector slipped back into contraction indicating their December expansion was a rogue result. Their services PMI also reverted to contraction as well, and they will be very disappointed. Neither was expected to reverse in January. The non-official PMIs will be released later today.
Also over the weekend, Taiwan said its economy expanded at more than a +12% rate in Q4-2025 in a spectacular release, and their best quarter ever. That means all of 2025 was up +8.6%, even better than the outstanding 2025 gain of +5.3%. No wonder Beijing covets the neighbouring island nation.
In Japan, they reported that its retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, although it did revise up its November retail sales results.
In South Korea, the pandemic recovery excepted, their exports rose at a record +34% year-on-year rate in January to a massive US$66 bln. This is largely as a result of booming tech exports to China and the US. And it sets up 2026 with a great start, after 2025 exports also hit all-time records.
Indian bank loan growth is still rising very fast indeed, up more than +13% year on year in its January 9, 2025 data released over the weekend
In the US, Trump said he will appoint Kevin Warsh from the conservative Hoover Institute and member of the billionaire Este Lauder family, to replace Powell when Powell's term ends in May 2026. The choice seemed to trigger the precious metals selloff. Trump once thought of appointing Warsh in 2017 but pulled back on doubts he would be compliant. Since then Warsh has become more MAGA.
US producer prices rose +3.0% in December from the same month a year ago, defying expectations they would fall to +2.7%. Core data was up +3.3%, the fastest rise since July.
Meanwhile in Chicago, the region's PMI made a spectacular recovery, one quite unexpected. New orders rose in this survey, employment surged. It is in complete contrast to the prior 25 consecutive months of decline. (However it will be worth waiting a month to know if this isn't just a rogue survey, one they have every two years or so. The last such unusual surge in November 2023 wasn't sustained.)
In Europe, Eurozone economic activity rose +1.5% in 2025, up +1.6% in the wider EU, up from +0.9% in 2024 and better than the European Commission’s projection of +1.3%. Resilient household consumption, lower borrowing costs and easing inflation, and a surge in exports to the US, all contributed to the better result. Germany and Italy were laggards, France about average, and Spain expanded at double the overall average.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the week
The price of gold will start today little-changed from Saturday at US$4888/oz when the big crash happened. Silver is down to US$US$84.50/oz.
American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$65/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl. From a week ago these prices are up +US$3.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from Saturday, now at 60.3 USc. That is a weekly appreciation of +100 bps. From the start of the month it is up +300 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just over 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 63.9, and down -10 bps from Saturday, up +80 bps for the week, up +200 bps for the month, almost all because the USD devaluation in global markets.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,404 and down a very sharp -6.8% from this time Saturday. That makes it down -18% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 0.8% with all the fall coming Saturday.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

By Gareth Vaughan
A new all-of-government strategy to tackle organised crime aims to make New Zealand the hardest place in the world for organised criminal groups to do business and following the money is key to the fight, says the Chairman of the Ministerial Advisory Group on Transnational, Serious and Organised Crime.
One of the Ministerial Advisory Group's recommendations is to broaden the legal definition of money laundering, with barrister Steve Symon, who chaired the Advisory Group, saying money is the key driver.
"The reason they operate in New Zealand is money. I'm not saying that we will cure the problem of organised crime globally, but we can make New Zealand the hardest place for organised crime to operate, such that they'll see other markets as more lucrative," Symon says in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast.
"We're effectively saying 'organised crime don't operate here, go elsewhere to do that.' We have to make it as challenging as possible for organised crime to profit from it, to use money."
"The money laundering regime is a key aspect of that. Obviously there has to be a way for organised crime to take the money that they get from crime and benefit from it. Transfer it, launder it... into a way that they can use it," says Symon.
"The challenges that we have in relation to the current money laundering regime [are] probably best demonstrated by the small number of money laundering cases that go through our courts. We know that the drug trade is driven by organised crime. And...theoretically, for every drug case you should have a money laundering case as well."
Symon says fortunately most New Zealanders won't be aware of the problem of organised crime, but they will see the symptoms of it.
"The methamphetamine use, particularly in our rural communities, [which] is decimating some of our rural communities. The advent of the fraud that is spreading. One in 10 New Zealanders are the victim of fraud and that number is escalating."
"And there'll be touch points that the public are not aware of, where they are interacting with people who are exploited migrants who have been exploited by organised crime," says Symon.
"We will see new and emerging threats through organised crime, such as a black market in tobacco which has been, escalating in New Zealand. And these things are growing and becoming more complex. What we're also seeing is organised crime working in more nefarious ways. So working on corrupting individuals, corrupting New Zealanders going about doing their work to try and maximise the return they can get from their crime."
"Organised crime is working more and more like large commercial enterprises. So when you think of large companies and how they spend their energy on facilitating and maximising the return that they can get for their investors, it's the same logic you should apply to organised crime," says Symon.
In the podcast audiohe also talks about the challenge of cash "the primary currency of organised crime" and the recommendation to stop cash payments in certain industries, why the Advisory Group recommends a dedicated Transnational, Serious and Organised Crime Minister, funding the fight against organised crime, why more is needed from Inland Revenue, working across government agencies, the role of the private sector, cryptocurrency, the need for international cooperation and more.
Just before Christmas Associate Police Minister Casey Costello unveiled a new all-of-government strategy to tackle organised crime. Costello released this strategy document, and this action plan. Details on the Ministerial Advisory Group and all its reports can be found here.
*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.

US data mixed as risk aversion rises. Singapore & Sweden hold rates. EU sentiment rises, inflation expectations dip. Air travel & cargo buoyant.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news markets now expect an Australian rate rise next week.

But first today, the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%. This is what markets expected from them, despite the Trump pressure to cut sharply. The vote was 10-2 with the dissenters working to curry favour with Trump to get the nod as the next Fed chairman. The FOMC indicated that rates at this level could hold for some time while household inflation stress remains elevated. Inflation with no growth (other than AI) is a hard position to extract yourself from.

They also have their eye on the labour market, with some large layoff announcements in the past few days. Both UPS (-30,000) and Amazon (-16,000) have announced big cuts, less about seasonal changes, more about 'efficiency'. They aren't the only ones pulling back.

American mortgage applications fell last week as mortgage interest rates rose. Refinance activity fell more than -16%, while new home purchase mortgages were little-changed. This may not be a trend change, rather just a breather, because the prior three weeks rose notably. However, this metric is in a clear yoyo pattern.

Canada's central bank also held its policy rate at 2.25% in its overnight decision. New bully threats from the US are keeping their growth outlook quite uncertain but they still see inflation holding at about 2% (currently 2.4%), and they still see an economic expansion at about +1.5%.

India's industrial production accelerated in December, up +7.9% from the same month a year ago to end its full year up +4.1% from 2024. Factory production was up +8.1%, with the weak sector being mining. The December expansion was its sharpest since October 2023.

In Australia, inflation was reported rising 3.8%, far above the November 3.4% and also above the expected 3.6% level. After the strong December labour market data released earlier in the month, this will put heavy pressure on the RBA to act to prevent inflation impulses and inflation expectations from requiring even tougher medicine in the future. Growth hotspots Brisbane and Perth both reported even higher inflation rates. Even Sydney reported 3.7% December inflation. The RBNZ will be looking at this evolving situation with some alarm, given that we too have above-target inflation, even without the growth pressures.

Separately, the Chinese ambassador to Australia has said that Beijing will step in if Australian moves to regain control of the Darwin port that was leased to Chinese interests in 2015 on a 99-year lease basis. He said China “has the obligation to take measures” to protect their rights over the port. That may include trade retaliation, and more Chinese navy circumnavigations including live-fire exercises in the Tasman.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$5289/oz, up a sharp +US$202 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver is up +US$7 to US$114/oz, also a record. Platinum has recovered and now at US$2645, but not back to Monday's spectacular record.

We should also note that the aluminium price has risen sharply overnight - again. It is now back approaching its pandemic-frenzy levels.

American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is also higher, now just under US$68/bbl. These are four month highs.

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and up +10 bps from yesterday, its highest since late September.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,425 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the US dollar fell for a fourth consecutive session today, sliding to its lowest level since February 2022. It's a -3.5% devaluation in just one week. Some think the US Administration is engineering the fall to bolster its export competitiveness as the US factory sector misfires, tariffs aren't working other than raising costs, and to put pressure on the Fed ahead of its meeting next week.
First up today however there was another dairy Pulse auction earlier this morning and that brought some interesting signals. The WMP price came in almost identical to last week's full auction and has been holding at this higher level since the start of 2026 when it made that 7%-plus jump. The SMP price rose a strong +5.9% today from last week, and is now +9% higher than what is was at the end of 2025.. Positive signs, but somewhat undermined by the fast-falling USD.
In the US, the weekly ADP employment update recorded a weekly gain of under +8000, continuing the slow easing that they have been recording since the end of November. January non-farm payrolls which will be released at the end of next week, is currently expected to show a very tame +40,000 jobs gain which will continue the weak run that started in May 2025.
And that may be optimistic, The Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey for January reported that confidence collapsed to lowest point since 2014, to levels even lower than the pandemic depths. It is now back to levels as it rose from the GFC.
But the latest factory survey, this one by the Richmond Fed in the mid-Atlantic states, showed little-change from its already negative levels. New order levels rose marginally however, but because that is on a dollar basis it might just be because the same survey shows high price increase activity, required by even higher cost increase levels.
More positive was the January Dallas Fed services survey, which moved up into positive territory in January after four months of consecutive retreat.
Today's US Treasury 5yr Note auction brought the same median yield rise from the prior equivalent event a month ago. Higher risk premiums are getting embedded
In China, industrial profits rose +5.3% in December from the same month a year ago. They will be pleased with that because for the whole of calendar 2025 they were up merely +0.6% (and would have declined but for the December rise).
In India, we can confirm the signing of their big trade deal with the EU, removing both tariff and non-tariff barriers.. The US isn't happy.
In Europe, we should note that Swedish officials are looking at what it would take to ditch the krona in favour of the euro. An independent review has already pointed out that the benefits would greatly outweigh the costs. The Swedes last voted on this issue in 2003.
In Australia, business sentiment as measured by the NAB survey, was stable and mildly positive in December. Business conditions however improved more strongly on better sales and margins.
Later today, Australia will publish its December CPI result, and after the strong labour market for January, will be closely followed and could very well move financial markets. They had 3.4% inflation in November and this December result is expected to be 3.6%. This will be very influential on the RBA's deliberations at next Tuesday's cash rate target review.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.
The price of gold will start today at US$5087/oz, unchanged from yesterday and holding at its record high. Silver is down to US$107/oz. Platinum has fallen more sharply and now at US$2522, down -US$335/oz from yesterday.
American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$62/bbl, while the international Brent price is softish, now just under US$67/bbl and up a bit more. This is all USD devaluation-driven.
The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday, now at 60.2 USc as the greenback goes into another devaluation stage. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.7, and up +20 bps from yesterday, its highest since late September.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,576 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.