Economy Watch

Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
And today we lead with news markets seem to like the expected guardrails on the US President, so risk appetites have returned today even if none of the underlying problems have been addressed anywhere. But it seems to be enough for oil prices to fall, tech confidence to return, and yields to retrace.
The greenback has come under pressure while the AI-driven market rotation aspects lost momentum overnight
In the US, their median inflation expectations for the year ahead were steady at 3.9% in October, the same as in September, and holding at 2023-highs, according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
American wholesale inventories rose in September to breach the US$1 tln level for the first time ever, up +7.8% from year-ago levels. As outsized as that may seem, they are still reporting that their 'sales-to-inventory levels remained low.
Today's US Treasury 3yr bond auction brought higher demand and lower yields as 'safety' trumps returns at this event, compared to the prior equivalent event a month ago. Eyes will be on tomorrow's US CPI outcome
Taiwanese exports shone again, up almost +59% from year-ago levels and better than the +50% anticipated. The usual suspects drove the gains. That enabled them to post a +US$27.9 bln trade surplus in the October month, far and away the best monthly result they have ever had. A year ago they had a record surplus too but that was 'only' +US$21.5 bln.
We get China's October export data later today.
In China, October CPI inflation was reported at 0.7% as the annual rate, lower than for September (0.9%) and lower than expected (0.8%). The sharply falling cost of vegetables and pork kept a lid on most other costs, including a +20.2% jump in fuel prices. Also, beef prices rose a startling +8.7% from a year ago, and lamb prices by +5.8%. Dairy products fell -1.2% however on the same year-on-year basis.
But going the other way, China's PPI inflation jumped more than the expected 5.3%, coming in at to 5.7% for October and its fastest growth since June 2022 and well above the September 5.0% level. It is an acceleration that will be very unwelcome even though much of it is fuel-cost related..
Germany also reported export and trade performance overnight but theirs was for September. At €141.1 bln, their exports were +7.7% higher than year ago levels and their trade surplus came in at +€15.6 bln and little changed from the +€15.5 bln level for the same month in 2025.
The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from yesterday, now at 4.87%.
The price of gold is down -US$59 at US$4111/oz. Silver is now just under US$53/oz and up +US$1 from yesterday
Oil prices have fallen -US$3 today, to just under US$88/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is is down -US$4.50 at just under US$94/bbl.
And we should probably note that fuel rationing has been re-started in Russia. Even in areas on the border with Mongolia and China. The nation's petrol and diesel exports have been 'suspended'.
While in India, Diwali-induced smog is choking New Delhi.
The Kiwi dollar has recovered a lot since yesterday, up +80 bps to be just under 56.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +60c at 81.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 501 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.0 and up +60 bps.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,001, and down -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.5%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
And today we lead with news data from the world's two largest economies has heads being scratched.
But first in the week ahead locally we will get a look at October retail sales with electronic card transaction data on Thursday and it isn't expected to very good. And the RBNZ's inflation expectations survey will be out for Q4 this week too.
In Australia it will be a light data week, apart from the important Westpac consumer sentiment update and the NAB business sentiment update, both for November.
In the US, there will be CPI and PPI updates for October released this week.
In China we will also be watching their October CPI and PPI, plus their trade data where their surplus is expected to stay very high - remaining a growing irritant to its trading partners. Their domestic economy signals are not expected to shine and the key data point for this will be for October new yuan loans.
Over the weekend we got new indications that their demographic problem isn't improving, with marriages (and therefor births) still falling sharply.
And China has passed 'anti-corruption' laws that tries to expand its jurisdiction to overseas countries. And at the same time their law requires foreign companies to provide information involving graft cases, while barring overseas law enforcement from conducting anti-corruption investigations in China. Chinese exceptionalism is on the rise.
China's FX reserves were little-changed in October, moving only because of currency shifts and asset variations. But China did add almost +1.1% to its gold holdings for the 24th consecutive month, with reserves rising +25.8 tonnes to 2435.4 tonnes at the end of October.
And we should note that there is a US-China summit meeting between their two presidents in about ten days time in Shenzhen (population 18.5 mln), their tech powerhouse center just across the border from Hong Kong (population 7.5 mln). There are more tech billionaires in Shenzhen (130+) than in Silicon Valley (80+).
In the US, their October non-farm payrolls surprised with a headline seasonally adjusted rise of +165,000 jobs and very much higher than what was expected or indicated in parallel non-official monitoring. On an actual basis, they say payrolls rose a bit more than +1 mln in October.
The wider population survey results were very positive too, recording employment up +744,000. The curious thing is that no-one else noticed these surges happening.
Meanwhile the rise in average earnings cooled, average hours worked marginally fell, and the participation rate was unchanged. None of these metrics back up the strong employment rises claimed.
Best to wait a month or two to see if they are sustained. On their own they give the Fed room to fight inflation harder as their labour market is apparently rising fast.
And also better than expected was the November release of the widely watched University of Michigan sentiment survey, which was less pessimistic than in October. It shifted back to its August levels and off its all-time lows to be little-changed from year-ago levels. Inflation expectations fell back too, now at 4.3% and a better improvement than expected. This survey pre-dated the election but perhaps there was a sense of the impending outcome; the wealthy got notably grumpier in these results; the less well off saw upsides in the future.
US consumer debt rose +US$28 bln in September, rising a strong +6.4% from a year ago. Leading the debt binge was a very sharp +14.5% rise in revolving debt which includes credit cards. This isn't a great sign given it indicates fast-rising debt stress in the most expensive personal debt category.
Canada also released October labour market data over the weekend and while the total number of jobs dipped only very slightly (-4,700), it would have been worse without the +13,400 gain in part-time jobs. Their jobless rate rose to 6.7% and giving up the gains since April. The expected December rate hike there is now probably in doubt.
The Canadian government released its 2026 Budget with a clear focus on building resilience and independence from the US. It is a transition that will cost them large public sector investment and longer deficits. They have had to slow their defense budget growth to accommodate what they plan. But in the age where "everything is national security" they probably don't see it that way.
EU retail sales slipped in September from August to be only +0.9% higher than year ago levels, by volume. But at least that is still a real rise. And it might be better than it looks because all the retail volume fall is due to buying less fuels. Eastern and Nordic Europe saw strong retail gains. It was falls in Germany, Spain and Italy that capped the gains. Interestingly, retail sales volumes were strong in France in September.
Global food prices edged lower in October, although dairy prices held most of their levels. Meat prices dipped, mostly on falling Chinese pork prices.
And while we are thinking globally, the OECD is reporting that inflation in their 38 member countries at 4.55%, up from 4.27% in August.
The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from Saturday, now at 4.86% but that is down -7 bps from this time last week.
The price of gold is up +US$11 at US$4170/oz and up +4.8% for the week. Silver is now just under US$52/oz and little-cghanged from Saturday. A week ago these prices were US$3876/oz and US$52/oz respectively.
Oil prices have risen +US$1 today, to just under US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is also up +US$1 at just under US$98.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$104/bbl and US$113.50/bbl respectively so they are down -14% in that time.
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at just on 55.4 USc which makes the weekly drop -90 bps and which we make as its lowest since 2009. Against the Aussie we are down -10c at 80.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding just over at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 59.4 and unchanged from Saturday to its lowest in 17 years as well..
The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,930, up +0.4% from this time Saturday, but down -1.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.7%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news financial markets are shunning exposure to tech stocks today on the expectation that their free-ride will be coming to an end over the next few years as a result of the US election shifts. Some specific stocks like SpaceX (-10%) are down sharply. The AI backlash is threatening datacenter investment plans.
Tomorrow we get the October US non-farm payrolls report and a +65,000 gain is anticipated by financial markets. Today, October monitoring of US job cuts had them staying at a low 44,000 level and that equals a three year low.
US jobless claims were low again last week at 176,700 and slightly below what seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now under 1.5 mln people on these benefits and near their lowest since 2023. Much tighter qualification requirements are a significant reason for this falling level.
The Richmond Fed boss said today that policy interest rates are going to have to rise, but he claimed the pace would be gradual. The Cleveland Fed boss said something similar today too.
US light-vehicle sales fell to an annual rate of 15.54 million units in October, down -0.9% from a year ago. That's a fall of -140,000. Affordability remains a major challenge for the industry, with pressures showing no signs of easing. They have tariffs to blame for that. The average monthly payment on a new-vehicle financing contract reached US$823 in October, up +2.6% from a year earlier. Conventional hybrids continue to attract strong demand, as they have over the past year
But US gloom seems to be lifting. US holiday retail sales are set to rise +4.5% year-on-year in the last two months ​of 2026, marking the strongest growth since ‌2021, according to research by Visa Economics.
Taiwan’s CPI inflation rate eased to 2.3% in October, down from a 31-month high of 2.7% in September. It has been above their central bank’s 2% target for six consecutive months now.
Across the Pacific, Malaysia held its central bank policy rate unchanged at 2.75% overnight.
Meanwhile in Europe, the Swedish central bank raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 2.0% citing inflation risks. However the Norwegian central bank met too, but deferred any changes to their 4.5% rate at this time after their September hike. They are nervous about inflation's track as well.
As expected, the Bank of England raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.0%, its first increase since mid 2023. Unusually for them, the vote was almost unanimous - the one dissenter wanted a +50 bps hike. And that is because their current CPI inflation rate of 3.5% is expected to rise relentlessly to 5% over the next year or so.
Australia delivered a strong export performance in September with them up +2.3% from August and up +10.4% from a year ago. Meanwhile their imports fell -3.3% from August but were up +11.7% from a year ago. That means they recorded a +AU$2.85 bln trade surplus in the month, only marginally smaller than the AU$3.05 bln in the same month in 2025. Driving their exports were strong sales of gold (+18.2%) and minerals (+11.0%). Not driving their gains were exports of "rural goods".
Global container freight rates were little-changed last week to be +124% higher than year-ago levels. Similarly, bulk cargo rates were little-changed too, and they are now +36% higher than year-ago levels. Somewhat confirming that, the New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index remained at little-changed levels in October. But is still quite elevated.
And it is probably worth noting a couple of high-profile failures overnight LIV Golf can't be saved and its run has ended. And Australian icon department store retailer is almost certainly also going into extinction.
The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps from yesterday at 4.83%.
Wall Street is falling today with the S&P500 down -3.7% and the Nasdaq down -4.9%.
The price of gold is up +US$56 at US$4120/oz. Silver is now just over US$52.50/oz and up +50 USc from yesterday.
Oil prices have risen a minor +50 USc today, to just on US$90/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 at just on US$96.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just on 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +½c at 80.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and little-changed from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,394 and down -5.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.4%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news of a notable relief rally in American financial markets after their decisive election results. Big money injections by billionaires failed spectacularly. If it results in a fairer, broader dispersion of wealth then the consumer engine that drives the US economy will pick up and business opportunities will improve.
So we are seeing equity markets rise today. Benchmark bond yields are dipping. The US dollar has had the top taken off it.
Meanwhile, US mortgage applications fell again last week, even though refinance activity rose on a small dip in benchmark mortgage interest rates. New purchase activity we weak again, continuing the decline that started in April.
However the US ADP jobs report for October showed modest new hiring levels (+86,000), similar to September (+,86,000) and better than was expected (+69,000). For a labour market as large as the US however (163 mln) these are tiny, even insignificant levels. We will get the October non-farm payrolls report on Saturday and analysts expect this to rise +65,000.
US exports in September held at the good levels they have been at since March, and imports rose marginally. That means that their trade deficit stayed unusually high at -US$105 bln for the month and little-changed from August. If it wasn't for the exports of aircraft and AI equipment, things would have been much worse. Imports of AI components and especially of fuels were the big categories that moved up.
The US ISM services PMI was relatively stable at a good expansion in October even if it did dip slightly. Of note however is that new order levels fell rather more than was expected and price rises stayed very elevated and not showing any moderation. The alternate S&P Global version of their services PMI was slightly more upbeat.
US crude oil stocks were expected to rise last week after the prior weeks chunky fall. But in fact they fell again, not by a lot, but the retreat is unwelcome. Their strategic reserves dipped slightly too.
Meanwhile in Canada, their exports (driven by oil and gold) came in a bit softer than expected in September but their imports fell noticeably on less car-buying. That resulted in a larger trade surplus for them than was anticipated, and much larger than in August. Their exports and trade surplus with the US both rose
In China, the private S&P Global (RD) services PMI expanded modestly in October, a better result that the official version that reported a small contraction. They say job creation accelerated in the month with output charges declining again despite rising cost inflation.
In India their services PMI shows activity growth that ticked higher to a good level, and cost pressures receding to lowest in over six years.
In the EU, they reported 4.0% inflation in October, as widely expected, and up from 3.8% in September. Fuel costs are getting the blame. Excluding energy, the rise was 2.3% and no-change for from September. ("Core" inflation is 2.5%, also no change.) The headline range is from 2.8% in Germany to 6.1% in Lithuania.
In Indonesia, a wiretapping scandal by insiders on their President has seen troops put on alert and generals sacked. An unstable Indonesia poses big risks for Australia.
The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.91%.
Wall Street is in a solid post-election relief rally with the S&P500 up +1.8% and the Nasdaq up +2.0%.
The price of gold is up +US$136 at US$4064/oz. Silver is now just over US$52/oz and up +US$2.50 from yesterday.
Oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 today, to just over US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$8 at just on US$95.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 56.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 80.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-chanhed at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and also little-changed from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,586 and up +3.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.3%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news financial markets are on the sidelines of the US mid-term elections, waiting for clarity on the collective US results.
But first, there was a full dairy auction overnight delivering a good +2.95% overall rise in prices in USD, up +4.0% in NZD terms and that is the strongest result since March. It is all built on the powders where SMP rise +3.1% and WMP was up +5.9%. Also cheddar recovered +8.6% and mozzarella was up +5.8%. But the other milk fats were all much weaker. with butter down -4.7%. The overall gain justifies Fonterra's recent hike in its farmgate payout price.
Meanwhile American economic data out overnight was generally quite positive.
US job openings rose unexpectedly by +333,000 to 7.5 mln in September.
There was a small (+1.8%) but unexpected rise in durable goods orders in September from August to put them +10.8% higher than year-ago levels, although +6.3% PPI inflation will be a part of that. All the same, it is a good rise.
And the RCM/TIPP sentiment index rose in November, and to a nine month high, even if it is still below its long run average and still well below its pre-pandemic levels.
The latest update on their Logistics Managers Index shows a rise that describes supply-chain cost pressure is still building however. This maintains its level that match the pandemic era stress.
Voting is underway in the US mid-term elections but the first exit polls won't be available until about 1pm today (NZT). Early voting has been unusually strong.
In Australia, their fight against inflation is proving to be unusually ineffective so far using monetary policy levers. Yesterday the RBA delivered the expected +25 bps hike taking their policy rate to 4.85%, a high among almost all developed countries. But there were a few unexpected signals, the most obvious being the split vote where a minority of members wanted to hold. That, and some other technical indicators brought some financial market reactions, including the AUD easing, and Australian government bond yields dipping modestly. Most observers think the RBA will pause its hiking at its next December 8 meeting.
The UST 10yr yield is back up +8 bps from yesterday at 4.95%.
Wall Street is firmer with the S&P500 up +0.6% and the Nasdaq up +1.1%. Hong Kong rose +0.6% but Shanghai fell -0.8% and that takes its 2026 sell-off to more than -10%. Home team support is no longer working, it seems.
The price of gold is down -US$40 at US$3928/oz. Silver is now just over US$49.50/oz and down -US$1.50 from yesterday.
Oil prices have fallen -50 USc today, to just over US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$1 at just on US$103.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just on 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and down -10 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,582 and and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.8%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI