Economy Watch

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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news surging exports and a range of stimulus measures (subsidies) are bolstering Chinese economic activity. It is a track likely to run into stiff resistance from many of the countries targeted by these subsidised exports - so the Chinese economic stability may not last much longer.
But first in the US, the Wells Fargo/NAHB house builder sentiment is being squeezed by higher costs and buyer affordability restraint. Their index fell for a second consecutive month to its lowest since June 2012. Sales expectations in the next six months dropped to the lowest since November 2022.
The US has trimmed some tariffs on Canadian lumber but that is not expected to have much impact. Meanwhile in Canada they reported CPI inflation running at 3.1% in September, only marginally higher than August and less than the 3.2% expected. It has been holding at this level since May and kept up due to fuel prices of course. (It is still notably lower than their southern neighbour's 3.7% September rate, but then, they don't have the tariff pressure the US has imposed on itself.)
And staying in Canada, a key survey of consumer inflation expectations has them at 4.0% for the year ahead which is just a whisker higher than what those surveyed thought inflation was running at presently.
Meanwhile a Canadian survey of business sentiment shows it improved in in Q3-2026 after deteriorating in the previous quarter. But to be fair most of these survey responses came before Trump's latest outburst.
In China, 16 of their 70 largest urban areas had a small rise in new house prices in September from August, four has no change, while the rest reported small declines. Overall, these new house prices were down -2.8% from a year ago, a slightly smaller decline than in August. For existing homes, the improvement was less and the year-ago change approached -6%. So not noticeable improvement in their housing markets.
China reported that its Q3-2026 economic activity grew +4.5% from the same quarter a year ago. That was better than the 4.3% in Q2-2026. They have a GDP growth target of "about 4.5%".
China said its industrial production was up +5.5% in September, better than the 5.2% claimed for August. But they also said their electricity production was -1.2% lower from a year ago, which doesn't really support the claim of higher production - unless they have had the surge of productivity that this implies.
Chinese retail sales were up +1.0% in September from a year ago according to the same official data release, more than August's +0.4% and better than expected.
And in Shanghai, they now have the world's highest office vacancy rate as foreign companies back off from investing in China. According to CBRE, a quarter of all office space there is vacant.
Around the world, multiple supply shocks are starting to affect food prices. It is not only grain from Ukraine and Russia, but In Indonesia, rice prices have already jumped to record highs amid forecasts of delayed rains, while the cost of bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter, and sugar prices in India hit an all-time high as the weakest monsoon in over a decade curbed production. These pressures have all the ingredients for social unrest.
In Australia, we should note the attempted assassination of an independent MP, an ugly trend in right-wing partisan politics.
The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps from yesterday to 5.14%.
The price of gold is at US$4139/oz and down -US$27 from yesterday. Silver is unchanged at just on US$57/oz.
Oil prices have risen +US$1.50 from yesterday to just over US$103/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$110/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, at just on 56.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 81.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.4 and little-changed from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,908 and up +1.1% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.4%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news of a shambles on the streets in Paris and New Delhi, and a shambles in the US fiscal management.
But first, this week will feature our Q3-2026 CPI result, and although it may be lower than for Q2, it is likely to be a one-off in advance of a higher Q4 outcome. And this will come in advance of the RBNZ's pre-election OCR review review next week. There will also be a PSI and credit card data out this week.
In Australia, there is little economic data out this week although we will get PMI results.
In the US, it will be mainly about Q3 earnings reports even if doubts are growing about tech valuations. There will be PMI survey results, and a key consumer sentiment survey. From Canada we will be the September CPI result.
From China there will be a set of September data including Q3 GDP (expect +4.4%), industrial product data, along with a review of their official Loan Prime rates. In Japan, it will be all about PMIs, factory production and inflation.
Singaporean (non-oil) exports surged a massive +25% in September from August to be +68% higher than year-ago levels which themselves were already elevated and up +21% at that time. They rose from S$61.5 bln in September 2025 to S$93.2 bln in September 2026 on the back of electronics and machinery. A big destination was "Hong Kong", so a back-door for AI gear into China. Meanwhile their imports rose +48% from a year ago.
In India, the street protests by disgruntled youth is still very active, even expanding, despite (or because of?) arrests of the movement's leaders. Of course, street protests in France are ongoing too.
In the US, industrial production was up +2.2% in September from a year ago, better than August's +1.6% gain and better than expected. A significant part of the gain was the +6.7% rise in "business equipment" where the data center buildout activity is covered. Production of "consumer goods" were actually -0.1% lower than a year ago (and that includes cars), although construction and mining had good gains.
Not positive was the New York Fed's services survey which reported that business activity declined significantly in October with firms especially pessimistic about the outlook ahead.
The latest US federal government accounts show a -US$2 tln deficit in the fiscal year ended September. This is its highest level since the pandemic, as spending on their military, social programs and interest on their ballooning debt dwarfed the Trump administration’s cost cuts.
And the same data shows declining corporate tax revenues in the US (down -15% in the past year) even as corporate profits soar (up +27.9% on the same basis). Trump's tax reductions for corporates are leaving individuals having to pick up even more of the burden to fund these growing deficits
Perhaps sensing the outlook turning darker, Fed boss Warsh declined to signal whether another interest rate hike is on the table this month in an overnight IMF conference event. He said hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy. But to hold rates he has to convince 12 other voting members this is 'blind eye' approach is warranted. Still, traders reacted and scaled back expectations of an October rate hike.
At the same Bangkok IMF conference, the Japanese central bank boss Ueda said that their underlying inflation is already quite close to it's 2% target and that "we cannot tolerate it rising any further." Higher interest rates are his tool to prevent that.
Canadian housing starts rose in September to their highest annualised rate since May with a better than expected upturn. However they were down sharply from the unusually high year-ago level.
Alberta went to the polls this weekend on its referendum to leave Canada. It is expected to be soundly rejected with results expected tomorrow.
In Australia, their home building industry is reporting that new home sales fell by -17.5% in the September quarter 2026, reversing the recovery that commenced in 2025. New home sales are now at their lowest quarterly level in 18 months. All states recorded a decline in the latest September quarter. The largest decline was in Queensland (-26%), followed by Victoria (-23%), New South Wales (-17%), South Australia (-7.6%) and Western Australia (-1.7%). They blame rising interest rates, tax changes, and general economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, auction results stayed low there in the past week to Saturday, with activity in Brisbane especially quiet.
The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp to 5.10% for a net -11 bps weekly fall.
The price of gold is at US$4166/oz and up +US$9 from Saturday but down -US$30 from last week. Silver is unchanged at just on US$57/oz and down its own -US$4 for the week.
Oil prices have held high from Saturday to just under US$101.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still up at US$110/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$91.50 and US$104.50/bbl so a +5% jump in a week
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, at just on 56.5 USc, up +40 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also stable at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.4 and up a bit less than +10 bps from Saturday, up +40 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,987 and down a minor -0.3% from Saturday at this time, down -2.0% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
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Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news long bond yields are falling fast today on worries about long-term growth prospects, while short term yields are holding with a much smaller pullback, kept up on expectations the Fed will hike in its battle against inflation. A bull flattening is underway. a signal that will worry bond traders even as they see the face value of their bonds rise.
Investors would rather hold US Treasuries than be exposed to AI debt in what they see as an AI debt reckoning coming soon.
US initial new jobless claims were little-changed last week, at +190,600, an increase from the prior week but all explained by seasonal factors. There are now 1.47 mln people on these benefits, down -11% from the prior year at this time as sharp qualification restrictions push people off this support.
But US inflation in their factories is leaping. Producer price inflation ran at a high +5.6% in August and was expected to ease to +5.3% in September. But in fact it came in at +6.3% in September in something of a shock. Everyone noticed, and expectations for a firm Fed response on October 29 have risen. Not doing so would be a signal that they aren't serious about tackling inflation.
And that inflationary urge helps explain why US retail sales rose +6.3% in September from a year ago - most of the increase is goods inflation. And that is bolstered by the tariff taxes they are now paying at the border. This seems slam-dunk evidence Americans are paying Trumps tariffs, not the world's exporters. The correlation between retail sales, tariffs and inflation is just too obvious.
And tariffs insulate American factories from facing global competition, giving them a false sense of prosperity - and enabling them to raise prices. The latest Philly Fed factory survey remained quite positive despite an easing in October. A key feature is the sharp rises in prices received, built on the excuse of rising prices paid. Meanwhile the New York Empire State factory survey also sees activity increasing protected by very elevated cost and price pressures due to the insulation from global pressures. The logical result will be uncompetitive industries in export markets. But that has yet to dawn on their policy-makers.
US crude oil stocks fell again last week and by more than expected, down -1% in a week. However, their very low Strategic Petroleum Reserves were unchanged having fallen -31% from a year ago and at just 283 mln barrels it is down to just 17 weeks of use at the current rate.
Indian exports in September maintained the level they have been at since April, but that does mean ther are up +22% from year-ago levels. Unfortunately for them, their imports rose much faster that in August, although these are only up +9% from year-ago levels. Together, they reported a larger trade deficit.
In China, not only do they have serious over-capacity in their manufacturing sector, they also have it in their domestic aviation market. Now their government is moving to cull competitors so that those that remain can be viable and stop posting large losses.
Singapore's haze is turning dangerously unhealthy. There are a lot of angry people at Indonesia in Singapore and Malaysia at present.
EU industrial production fell in August from a year ago and by more than expected. But it is still in the higher range from two years ago.
There was a very big surprise in the Australian labour markets data released today for September. You will recall they added +29,300 jobs in August and were expected to add another +20,000 in September. In fact, jobs contracted there by -39,300. It was distorted by the even sharper fall in part-time jobs, down -73,700 and saved somewhat by a +34,400 gain in full-time jobs. The number of unemployed people only rose marginally and their jobless rates was unchanged at 4.7% although that remains at a five year high. As unexpected as this labour market data was, analysts still expect the RBA to hike again on November 3 because inflation is the larger worry.
Global container freight rates rose again last week to be +166% higher than year-ago levels, driven by demand from China to the US and to some extent to the EU and the end of year holiday trade builds. But bulk freight rates tumbled -11% over the past week, to now be just +33% higher than year-ago levels
The UST 10yr yield fell sharply again, down -10 bps to 5.08% in an extended defensive reaction.
The price of gold is at US$4147/oz and up +US$67 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$1.50 at just under US$57/oz.
Oil prices have risen another +US$2 from yesterday to just under US$98/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at US$106/bbl. A big release of strategic reserves is about to happen, but this isn't trimming prices.
The Kiwi dollar is back up +40 bps from yesterday, back to just on 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 81.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60 and up +40 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,997and essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.7%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.
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Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news of a developing spiral of higher energy costs and higher money costs. Wall Street is recoiling at the prospects. The NZD is collateral damage.
US mortgage applications fell again last week from the week before with both new lending and refinance activity retreating equally. That extends the declines to eight of the past nine weeks and it now at its lowest level since early 2025. The benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rates is little-changed at 7.5% but still very high and now just off its late 2023 brief peak. Prior to that you have to go back 25 years to find a rate this high.
Also higher than expected was the September US CPI inflation rate. You may recall it came in at 3.4% in August, and analysts had expected it to come in at 3.6% as the fuel cost increases bit. But it actually came in at 3.7%, its highest since May's unusual +4.2% spike, and prior to that in early 2023 and off the pandemic splurge. Yes, it was largely driven by fuel costs, but electricity prices were up +4.4% and rents up +3.2%. Many other costs were flat or lower however. Bond yields rose on the news and a Fed rate hike on October 29 is more likely now.
The October Fed Beige Book was released today, describing an economy just chugging along. Since last month, two of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported moderate growth in economic activity. Three Districts reported modest growth, while four reported slight growth, and three reported no significant change. It is clear that any expansion they have is from the AI buildout, but elsewhere it is absent.
Some 76 million Americans receiving Social Security benefits will see their monthly ​payments rise +3.6% in 2027, accelerating from the prior ‌year's +2.8% increase for a second straight year. Announcing this just before the November elections will lock in an even worse fiscal result in the new year.
Across the Pacific, China also released September CPI data overnight and it was expected to rise to +1.0% there from +0.8% in August. But in fact it came in at +0.9%. Their fuel costs were up +14.9%, their food costs fell -0.9%. Within that, beef prices rose +7.5% and lamb prices +6.4%. Dairy products fell -1.5%.
Things were not so tame for Chinese producer prices where were up +5.0% in September from a year ago, +1.2% from August.
They also booked a very strong export performance for September, up +36.3% from a year ago, their best non-February month ever and generating a +US$133.5 bln monthly trade surplus, easily a new record high apart from January 2025 and that rush to avoid impending US tariffs. Cars and electronics are driving the boom. Exports to ASEAN nations have been strong. To the US, exports climbed +39.6%. Trump's containment adventure is a failure - Americans are just paying his tariffs while buying record volumes. Tariffs certainly are not hurting the Chinese, just as most analysts knew. Tariffs are a tax on yourself.
And for the first time in a while, China saw new bank lending rise more than expected, up just over +¥1 tln from August (+NZ$290 bln). The rise was modest in their context, and less than in any September in the past ten years, but is was a recent improvement and that will encourage Beijing.
Singapore and Malaysia are suffering under a severe haze emergency from Indonesia's annual illegal burning operations. This year it is the worst on record. El Nino conditions aren't helping.
OPEC's monthly report released overnight reports very weak demand growth for oil, (+0.2% from a year ago) but they bravely see it recovering in 2027 to a +2.6% expansion. From this vantage point, that look 'hopeful'.
The UST 10yr yield rose +2 bps to 5.24% before falling sharply to 5.18% in a short term defensive reaction.
The price of gold is at US$4080/oz and down -US$74 from yesterday. Silver is down a very sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$55.50/oz.
Oil prices have risen +US$1.50 from yesterday to just under US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +50 USc at US$106.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from yesterday, back to just on 55.7 USc and testing its lows again. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 80.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.6 and down -30 bps from yesterday and back at its recent lows.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$82,005 and down -1.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.5%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news as winter gets closer in the northern hemisphere, the energy situation is worrying the supply industry and consumers. American heating oil prices are rising again, approaching their record highs.
The overnight Pulse dairy auction was a positive one with WMP and butter up more than +2% from the prior week's full auction event, and SMP continuing its rose, up +1%. Prices in NZD were up slightly more.
At its meeting in Bangkok, the IMF says 2026 growth is holding up a bit better than expected mainly due to the AI buildout. But 2027 is almost definitely slow they say. The pick the 2026 advanced economy's expansion at +2.1%, and the 2027 one at 1.8%. But they see emerging economies' growth rise from +3.7% ins year to +4.4% next year, and they say neither China nor India will drive that expansion. It will be all due to a recovery in the Middle East because the assumption is that the US ar in Iran will be over then.
They see Australia's expansion slowing from +1.9% this year to +1.6% in 2027. The jobless rate is expected to rise to 4.7%. In contrast they see New Zealand's expansion going from +2.0% this year to +2.6% in 2027. But our jobless rate will stay high at 5.1%.
Separately, the latest update of the US labour market was positive, with slightly more jobs reported in the weekly ADP monitoring, almost +25,000. That will suppress any worries Fed voters will have about their jobs mandate and focus everything on their inflation mandate.
Small businesses are finding labour harder to get, at a time their views of future prospects are souring. The September NFIB optimism index slipped again and currently sits lower than in the past three months and lower than last year, but it is still at about its two year average.
US existing home sales stayed at a lowish level and slightly above the level expected. But they remain down -2.2% in September from a year ago. The realtors who release this data are clearly worried that high mortgage rates are setting the scene for a tougher period ahead.
There were another Fed speaker out today. Christopher Waller noted that higher yields are doing some of the Fed's work for it, and that Trump's pressure to its independence isn't succeeding.
In Canada we should probably note that the Canadian province of Alberta will vote on October 20 on a local referendum about ceding from the country and joining the US. But support is reported to be low for the proposal.
Across the Pacific, Japan's producer price index growth slowed slightly in September. They are up +6.8% year-on-year, slowing from August’s pace and the market expectation of +7.6%.
In Australia, the widely watched NAB business confidence survey fell in October although business conditions were little-changed from the prior month. The drop in confidence is still well below long run averages, holding at weak levels.
The latest RBA minutes release confirms they are very focused on upward inflation pressures. They see signs of tech-driven price pressures from the AI boom emerging in Australia. On top of that the Middle East clashes have intensified, and oil prices exceed their forecasts. The increase in global neutral rate may weigh on the Australian dollar if domestic rates stay flat, they say. The AUD dipped when these minutes were released.
The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at just on 5.22%.
The price of gold is at US$4154/oz and down -US$10 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$59/oz.
Oil prices have risen +50 USc from yesterday to just over US$94.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at US$106/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is back up +30 bps from yesterday, back to just on 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 80.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and up +20 bps from yesterday and off its recent lows.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,393 and up +1.0% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.7%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.
Track 1219389
Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI