Still Counting

The midterms dust is still settling and votes are still being counted in key states, but no matter which way you look at it, it was a terrible night for Donald Trump and Republicans, and a great night for Democrats. Nate, Galen, and Clare break down the results, examine how Trump’s handpicked candidates fared, and dig into what this election means for the future of MAGA and the Republican Party. They also assess how Nate’s forecast performed, compare the polls to the final results, and, because it’s never too early, discuss what all of it could mean for 2028.
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In this bonus episode, Clare, Nate, and Galen take a last look at FLIPR’s midterm forecast and the latest New York Times/Siena University polls—both of which show Democrats with a lot of momentum heading into Election Day. They also unpack Haley Stevens’ eleventh-hour endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed’s opponent, Mike Rogers, and ballot-stacking in Alaska before sharing their final midterm predictions.
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With Election Day less than a week away, Galen, Clare, and Nate answer your burning questions and unpack what the latest New York Times/Siena poll reveals about South Carolina’s Senate race, whether pollsters are herding, and how to interpret the numbers in the final stretch. They also dig into what early voting data can—and can’t—tell us about voter turnout and the broader electorate.
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Nate, Galen, and Clare dive into the latest midterms numbers, including FLIPR’s updated forecast giving Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the Senate and the final Times/Siena national poll of the election, which finds Trump’s approval rating at a new low. They also discuss concerns about polling accuracy after a firm admits to faking its data, and the problems that raises for pollsters, candidates, and the country. Then, they take a look at the issues Democrats and Republicans are focusing on as seen through their political ads and analyze what that tells us about the state of the midterms and what campaigns are hearing internally from voters.
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Clare, Nate, and Galen check the latest in the FLIPR midterms forecast and discuss whether the election has solidified, or if Republicans can mount a last ditch recovery. Then, in “Do You Buy It?” they put conventional wisdom to the test, unpacking the latest midterms headlines and examining whether the assumptions behind the stories actually hold up. They close by answering audience questions about the Epstein files’ impact on the midterms and whether a 20th century midterms election offers parallels to the current one.
Become a subscriber to Crooked Media! It’s the best way to directly support us as we build an independent, pro-democracy media company. Subscribers get exclusive benefits, like bonus podcasts, newsletters and more. 
Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends or wherever you listen to podcasts.
You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.