The DeFi Report

Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare.
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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy 

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
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https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:24 The Tension of Deployment
3:46 Market Positioning Updates
4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators
7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value
11:44 Market Value to Realized Value
15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average
18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value
20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty
24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value
28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions
33:17 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan unpack why “uncertainty” is starting to feel structural across markets: the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump’s workaround playbook, and what it all means for capital flows and bonds. Then they dig into the viral Citrini AI scenario and why the real signal is not the report itself, but Wall Street’s reaction and the widening range of outcomes. Finally, they run a Bitcoin market structure check, from long term holder behavior and ETF flows to miner stress, and explain why they’re still heavy cash and what would need to happen to trigger the next fat pitch.
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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://thedefireport.io/
https://x.com/the_defi_report
https://x.com/JustDeauIt

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:49 Bitcoin Market Structure Insights
8:26 Supreme Court Tariff Decisions
12:20 Impact on the Bond Market
12:31 AI & Investor Psychology
20:30 Structural Uncertainty in the Market
26:14 Bitcoin Market Structure Update
35:44 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch.
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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy
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📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://thedefireport.io/
https://x.com/the_defi_report
https://x.com/JustDeauIt
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals
6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative
9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets
12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble?
15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era
19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts
22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks
26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts
29:57 Consumer Behavior & Market Trends
33:04 Portfolio Adjustments & Future Outlook
35:24 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what Mike means when he says spot markets are “tangled.” With 40% of supply held above $78K and heavy dip buying at $84K, they explore the risk of a relief rally into resistance and the potential for one more leg down toward the 200-week moving average. They close with details on TDR’s first deployment of the bear market, deep value targets, and how they’re scaling into positions while keeping dry powder ready.
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📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://thedefireport.io/
https://x.com/the_defi_report
https://x.com/JustDeauIt

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:09 Market Sentiment Shifts
3:28 Comparing Past Cycles
6:13 First Purchase of the Bear Market
7:49 Forced Selling & Market Reactions
12:50 Analyzing Market Structure
17:29 Understanding New Market Psychology
21:52 TDR's Strategic Allocation
27:47 Updates on the Watch List
31:28 Triggers for Altcoin Deployments
32:49 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down what Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could mean for crypto, and why a real regime shift might be back on the table. They unpack Warsh’s record as a Fed governor, his critique of QE and the swollen balance sheet, and the big question markets are not pricing: is the Fed Put still alive? Mike explains why he still views crypto as in a bear market, the onchain and cycle metrics he needs to see before going risk-on, and how a Nasdaq rollover tied to an AI unwind could drive the next leg lower. They close with fair value targets, downside scenarios, and what would finally flip Mike into buy mode.
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📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://thedefireport.io/
https://x.com/the_defi_report
https://x.com/JustDeauIt

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:15 The Bloodbath in Crypto Prices
2:52 Analyzing the New Fed Chair
7:21 Warsh's Views on Inflation
10:19 Trump & Warsh's Alignment
12:55 The Fed Put: A New Perspective
18:05 Constraints on Warsh's Policies
20:59 The Uncertainty of the Fed's Influence
21:50 Crypto's Bear Market Outlook
23:32 Metrics for Bitcoin's Recovery
25:27 Long-Term Holders' Market Behavior
27:13 The State of Bitcoin Miners
29:35 NASDAQ & Tech Sector Trends
32:54 The AI Bubble and Its Implications
35:35 The Potential for Market Unwind
39:39 ISM Data and Economic Signals
40:45 Mike's Risk-On Strategy Insights
42:41 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.