The Monday Call

Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist at Kiwibank, has stepped into the centre of a widening divide. In a debate now marked by sharply differing views on the path of the Official Cash Rate, Kerr has labelled calls for near-term hikes 'reckless' - cutting through the profession’s usual caution.
At issue is more than timing. Some economists are signaling multiple rate increases this year, citing inflation risks from the Iran war and rising energy prices. Kerr takes a different view: this is a supply shock, not a demand surge - and tightening into it risks repeating past mistakes and damaging the economy.
In this episode, Kerr sets out his case. Why does his outlook diverge from his peers? Are markets - and policymakers - misreading the inflation impulse? And how should the Reserve Bank of New Zealand respond as geopolitics and economics become more closely intertwined?
Join hosts James Grigor and Stephan Clark for a conversation on New Zealand’s economic outlook, geopolitics and what happens when consensus begins to fray with one of the country’s most outspoken economists.

Tim Ewing-Jarvie, former Strategic Adviser to the Pentagon, offers a rare insight into global security. He served in the NZ Army in a variety of roles, including as Sniper and Reconnaissance Platoon Commander and Delta Company commander, with operational experience in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Greater Middle East. He now leads Horizon Lab, a strategic advisory providing actionable intelligence and decision support for companies navigating complex operating environments.
Tim will discuss how nations and organisations can build resilience amid geopolitical shocks – from the 'weaponisation of trade' to managing conflict risks like those in Iran. How can New Zealand strengthen economic and military resilience? Are geopolitical factors overtaking commercial efficiency as the main driver of trade? And how can businesses adapt in response to international conflicts?
Join James Grigor and Stephan Clark for a forward-looking conversation on national priorities, public–private collaboration, and strategies to enhance stability, trade, and long-term security at home and abroad.

The recent escalation in the Middle East delivered a sharp geopolitical shock. Coordinated United States-Israel strikes on Iranian military targets, followed by Iran’s missile retaliation, quickly raised tensions. For investors, the key question is not the headlines themselves, but whether the conflict meaningfully alters the outlook for global markets and long term returns.
Markets reacted swiftly. Oil prices surged as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - responsible for around 20% of global oil supply - was disrupted. The United States dollar strengthened as investors sought safety, while Treasury yields rose, an unusual move reflecting renewed inflation concerns. Equities proved resilient with airlines and transport lagging, and as energy and defensives outperformed.
History suggests regional conflicts rarely derail corporate earnings – except when energy flows are severely and persistently disrupted. That is the critical judgment call now. Join Stephan Clark for part two on the conflict, as he speaks with Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer, to review recent developments and the opportunities ahead for well positioned portfolios.

Hear how client portfolios are positioned for events in Iran. Headlines and markets move fast. Stay informed with this special edition of the Monday Call.

With missiles striking near his Dubai apartment, Paul De Klerk, veteran NZ Investment Adviser, joins Stephan for on-the-ground insights. James Grigor, Investment Strategist, who served in the region with the NZDF, discusses portfolio positioning.

Last year rewarded steadfast, diversified investors with solid returns. This year, the focus shifts to positioning for what’s next. Expectations are more grounded in reality, new sectors and regions are taking the lead and, in a world hooked on the next big headline, patience has quietly become a secret weapon.

Although the news cycle will remain busy, the underlying picture is improving. Growth in the United States is broadening, China’s momentum is building, and AI is moving beyond hype into supporting a productivity leap. Right now, the groundwork is being laid for a more durable and rewarding phase in this market cycle.

Join hosts James Grigor and Stephan Clark as they sit down with Michael Hanson, Senior Vice President of Research at Fisher Investments, for a straight-talking look at investing successfully in 2026. Based out of California, Fisher Investments manages over $600 billion globally and is one of a select group of managers NZ Funds partners with.