The Monday Call

Join us as we look back on the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, and the opportunities emerging for investors in 2026. 2025 has been defined by a world moving at different speeds: slowing growth in some regions, pockets of resilience in others, and meaningful divergence across interest rates, inflation, and equity performance.The AI and data-centre investment cycle has continued to accelerate, while the energy transition and demand for critical minerals have reshaped capital flows and sector leadership. Equity markets have become increasingly dispersed, and volatility across regions and sectors has reinforced the importance of active positioning and the ability to adjust exposures as conditions evolve.Here in New Zealand, after a challenging period for households and businesses, we are now seeing genuine green shoots in falling inflation, stabilising interest rates, improving confidence, and early signs of a turnaround in corporate earnings. These factors are expected to support the New Zealand share market into 2026, especially given attractive valuations and a historically strong dividend profile.Against this backdrop, why does NZ Funds continue to believe a flexible, active, multi-asset investment approach is essential? We will explore these themes and more in the final Monday Call of the year.

Interest rates remain one of the most powerful forces shaping investment outcomes, and understanding the four phases of the interest-rate cycle (hiking, peak, cutting and the flat bottom) is key to navigating markets. Each phase affects share market performance and sector leadership in patterns that have repeated across multiple cycles.To help investors make the most of these opportunities, NZ Funds has developed the Interest Rate Investment Strategy (IRIS), a research-driven framework that guides sector positioning as the cycle moves. This week, we look at why the strategy was developed, how it is currently being implemented, and what it tells us about expected equity returns across New Zealand, Australia and the United States.In a world where interest-rate sensitivity creates both risks and opportunities, IRIS offers a clear, practical way to strengthen decision-making, build resilience, and stay positioned for what comes next. Join hosts James Grigor, Investment Strategist, Stephan Clark, Chief Client Officer, and special guest Charlie Astwick, Investment Analyst, as they share insights from NZ Funds’ latest research and discuss what the future path of interest rates may mean for investors.

The way investors build share portfolios is changing. With markets increasingly driven by a handful of big companies and traditional diversification offering less protection, it’s time to rethink how portfolios are structured. NZ Funds’ latest research explores two areas that can make a real difference. How equal-weighted portfolios compare with capitalisation-weighted portfolios, and how tail-risk protection can help reduce drawdowns while lifting long-term returns.This week, we’ll look at the findings from NZ Funds’ recently published Equal vs Capitalisation-Weighting and Downside Mitigation (Universa) white paper. From how regular rebalancing and broader share exposure can improve returns, to how downside protection strategies like Universa can buffer major market falls, the research shows practical ways to build stronger, more resilient portfolios.In a world of concentration risk and sharp market moves, both approaches aim to give investors better long-term results - higher compounding and steadier returns. Join hosts James and Stephan, together with NZ Funds CIO Mark Brooks, as they explore what this means for the next generation of portfolio design.

As the third quarter draws to a close, we look back on the perspectives we shared at mid-year. We were right to remain confident: growth prospects for 2025 have continued to propel markets higher, and our outlook stays positive for the rest of the year.Many of the same drivers remain in play. In New Zealand, interest rates and dairy prices should eventually help pull the economy out of the doldrums, and the share market has already been trading stronger in the second half. Globally, despite the United States dominating headlines for geopolitical reasons, the economy remains resilient and share markets are reflecting that.So how should we think about positioning for continued headline-grabbing volatility while holding a constructive view on markets? Are there alternative assets we can invest in? And, remembering that while markets don’t repeat, they do rhyme, what can history teach us about what comes next? Mark Brooks, Chief Investment Officer at NZ Funds, joins us to discuss these questions as another wet New Zealand spring arrives in full bloom.

What happens when a leading Silicon Valley investor turns his focus to New Zealand? Rob Coneybeer, Co-Founder of Shasta Ventures, has backed global successes like Nest, Dollar Shave Club, Canva and Anaplan. Now he’s bringing that experience and perspective here, exploring how New Zealand can better attract talent, capital and opportunity.The new Active Investor Plus visa is opening doors for international investors and operators. But capital alone isn’t enough - real success depends on connecting people with the right skills, building strong networks, and creating supportive frameworks, including tax, to grow a thriving ecosystem.Join us as we explore why New Zealand is an attractive place to grow a business and how the country can strengthen its competitive edge, and learn about Kiwi companies pushing to make their mark globally. For business owners and investors alike, this is a valuable chance to hear directly from someone who has scaled world-class companies and understands what it takes on the global stage.