Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy!Our inner mystics have come out to play. We’ve updated our forecasts and the future is bright. We continue to forecast a robust recovery. The settings are about right. Even with a frustrating rise in retail rates. A premature move sparked by a sell off in wholesale rates following the RBNZ’s messaging misstep in November.Beyond Kiwi growth, we also discuss the outlook for housing, inflation, the labour market and migration for next year and beyond. Tune in to see what the future has in store. Additionally check out our full Outlook note here.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date

This year, it looks like Kiwi favoured hammers over handbags, couches over Converse, and books over Bluetooth speakers. Kiwi are opening up their wallets, but to select stores. For now, all things housing are the winners.

The festive shopping season is only just getting started. Secret Santa and stocking stuffers may see more broad-based gains across retail this Christmas. Not to mention, Boxing Day, which still reigns supreme as the biggest spending day of the year for Kiwi. For now, significantly lower interest rates are helping free up disposable incomes and boost consumption. And with 30% of mortgaged households set to roll off onto lower rates in the next six months, the outlook for retail is merry and bright.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.

Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date.
This year, it looks like Kiwi favoured hammers over handbags, couches over Converse, and books over Bluetooth speakers. Kiwi are opening up their wallets, but to select stores. For now, all things housing are the winners.
The festive shopping season is only just getting started. Secret Santa and stocking stuffers may see more broad-based gains across retail this Christmas. Not to mention, Boxing Day, which still reigns supreme as the biggest spending day of the year for Kiwi. For now, significantly lower interest rates are helping free up disposable incomes and boost consumption. And with 30% of mortgaged households set to roll off onto lower rates in the next six months, the outlook for retail is merry and bright.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. A 2.25% cash rate looks to be the bottom. That’s good news. Policy settings are now more supportive of a recovery in 2026.

After 325bps of rate cuts, the RBNZ appear more confident in the economic outlook. Positive data following the RBNZ’S decision, from confidence to consumer spending, supports as much. And against the backdrop of an upbeat hawkish RBNZ, we’ve seen a big move in markets. Wholesale rates, particularly the 2yr swap rate has ratcheted 30bps higher following last week's decision. And we’ve seen the Kiwi pop back to a 57c handle.

Tune in as we break down all the details from the vote, tone, and OCR track, plus the market reaction and what it all means for the outlook.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In this episode, we’re joined by Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman to unpack the current lending landscape and the state of credit demand across New Zealand...
Activity remains mixed across sectors and regions. There’s still pockets of activity in the South Island, especially as farmers benefit from a weaker currency. But there’s a clear preference to pay down debt as the share of non-performing agri loans has fallen steeply. That’s great news, but it’s limited the spillover of activity into other parts of the real economy. More generally, the current weakness in the economy is still keeping credit demand subdued.
One standout trend over the past year has been households opting for shorter-dated rates to take advantage of falling interest rates. And with the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting just around the corner, we explore whether we’ve reached the bottom of the rate cycle and how markets are positioning for what’s next.
The conversation doesn’t stop there. We also discuss the lingering uncertainties weighing on businesses. A big one being next year’s election.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.