After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they did so with plenty of conviction. The OCR track was massively lowered, now signalling an 80% chance of a move to 2.5%. This is great news for Kiwi households and businesses. Interest rates are moving from providing relief to generating stimulus. Just what the economy needs. So, join us while we unpack the RBNZ’s latest bold & brilliant move. And of course, how financial markets have reacted. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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23:00
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23:00
The Tasman tug-of-war: NZ vs OZ
The Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the times. Our economy’s certainly feeling a bit rough around the edges, especially when stacked up against our mates across the ditch. It’s no surprise we’re seeing a majority of Kiwi flock over to Australia. So, in this episode we thought to stack up the two economies side by side. The beautiful, lush Aotearoa vs the brownish vegemite Australia. We’re comparing activity, labour markets, inflation, and of course, central banks. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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24:27
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24:27
Beneath the bonnet: The Kiwi job market is weaker than it seems
We’re delving into the details of the latest labour market report. Unemployment has lifted to a five-year high. And it would have been higher if not for the steeper-than-expected slide in the participation rate. Meanwhile, details under the headline rate portray an even weaker reality. Combined with weak underlying price pressures and the fact that inflation expectations have remained comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band, all the data to date supports, if not demands, further rate relief. We should see a 25bps cut next week to 3%. And continue to call for an eventual move to 2.5%.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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17:39
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17:39
The stars are aligned. Cuts to come.
It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big moves. Why? Because markets are coming around to what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: that tariffs will have an impact on demand and weaken global growth. We’re seeing that start to play out now. And markets are factoring it in. The market moves follow a week of woefully weak data. No matter where you looked, whether it was US payrolls, which incredibly disappointed, or Aussie’s soft inflation report, the impacts of tariffs and their accompanying uncertainty are becoming notable. Central banks are coming around to seeing the tariffs shock for what they are: a negative demand shock which will require lower interest rates. The same message applies here at home. And markets have responded to that. So, tune in as we cover all the latest moves in equities, rates and currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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22:22
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22:22
The regional divide widens as everything just gets better the further you go south.
This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up?For the most part, regions are performing better than last year. But they’re still far from their best. The average score across the motu lifted from a 3 out of 10 to 4. Meanwhile the South Island continues to outperform the North. Otago and Southland take the crown for best performance across the country. All while Wellington remained the weakest performer. Although to give them some credit, their score did improve from last year.Our look into the regions is extensive. So, alongside this week’s episode, be sure to also check out the full report here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/the-regional-divide-widens-as-everything-just-gets-better-the-further-you-go-south/It’s packed with even more regional insights, including some amazing anecdotes from our business bankers on the ground. Plus of course, more pretty charts. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
New Zealand