A hawk and a dove at the same time. The RBNZ cuts 25
Hawkish here, dovish there. There was a bit of everything in the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement. And we’re delving into all the details...Now, if you just read the statement, the RBNZ’s easing bias was strengthened. The economic forecasts were lowered, and another 25bp rate cut was inserted into the OCR track. But if you listened to the press conference or noted the dissenting 5-1 vote, the RBNZ’s top brass were crystal clear in their clouded uncertainty. So how do we make sense of it? Where to from here? And, how have markets responded? We’re cover it all. The key takeaway: more rate cuts are coming. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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19:10
Behind the scenes and behind the numbers: Budget 2025
Ever wondered what it’s like in the day of a life as an economist on a major data release day? Well, consider this week's episode your backstage pass to Budget 2025. We’re talking through our experience at the Budget lock up in Banquet Hall. Everything from our rapid analysis, to even our (sad) lunch experience. We break down Treasury's new forecasts and delve into some of the new policies announced. Set against a challenging backdrop, Budget 2025 revealed an inevitable downgrade to the economic and fiscal outlook. A return to surplus is still achieved, but you’ll need a magnifying glass to see it. And the weaker reality, simply means more debt and issuance. Most importantly though, from our view, "the growth" budget still doesn't offer a lot in the way of growth. And reinforces the need for the RBNZ to deliver more stimulus to help the economy out of recession. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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27:50
Urgent couriers front run an economy without green shoots
This is an episode you don’t want to miss! We’re joined by Steve Bonnici, Managing Director of Urgent Couriers, for some great insights on the courier and logistics industry and what it tells us about the broader economy. As Steve aptly puts it, rapid delivery services serve as a bellwether for the economy. When the market shifts, they’re the first to experience it. So, what’s the industry signalling for the Kiwi economy? According to Steve and his team, greenshoots are not in sight. Enquiries are low and clients are still price-sensitive. Not quite the signs of a recovering economy. On the ground (literally) anecdotes like these from Urgent Couriers reinforce our position: The Kiwi economy demands more rate relief. We also cover everything from sustainability in the logistics field to the future of logistics amid major technological advancements. Think self-driving trucks, drones, and other emerging technologies. The question is, how are our roads holding up? Can they take us to the future? Tune in for an insightful conversation with Steve Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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33:38
All labour market indicators point to weakness
This week we’re delving into the details of the latest Kiwi labour market report. The scars of the recession we’ve been through are still raw with every indicator in the unemployment report pointing to weakness. And youth are bearing the brunt of it. We break down the numbers and explore how they’re feeding into the broader inflation outlook. Plus, what it all means for monetary policy. Spoiler: it strengthens the case for more rate relief. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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21:38
Hitting pause. Investment decisions gathering dust on the shelf
In this week’s episode we’re joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit, to discuss the ongoing uncertain environment. As economists we love to talk through scenarios. We’re always considering the upside and downside risks when forming our view. David however tends to pitch his tent in camp downside...Tune in as we cover the latest on business appetite, credit dynamics, and the evolving risk landscape. Credit availability has and continues to improve. But demand for credit remains subdued with businesses still holding back on borrowing. Amid tariff uncertainty and a potential global slowdown, investment and expansion decisions have been shelved. Plus, we cover the rise in liquidations and receiverships which recently hit a 10-year high.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
New Zealand