Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has shot up over the years, and we don’t see it reversing, if anything it’s getting worse.
Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the guts from inflated fuel prices. We speculate over the length of the conflict and already, we are looking to 2027 for an economic recovery – it feels like this year is a bust.
And inflation has us talking about demand destruction, the soft economy and labour market. We have the immediate impact on prices, that causes a spike in inflation, but we don’t think that rate hikes are part of the story for this year.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

He’s back again, our reoccurring special guest Hamish Wilkinson (aka Wiklie), Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, joins us to talk currencies and uncertainties in global markets.
The war in the Middle East is ramping up or winding down, we aren’t really sure. But we speculate about what it means for the Kiwi economy. We’re especially worried about what a diesel shortage could to our essential services and key industries.
Wilkie talks us through what the currency pairings are doing (or not doing). Markets are barely responding to the crisis according to the volatility index is only just starting to creep up. Read more about it in our FX Tactical. Just like us, it seems that markets are waiting and watching the situation unfold anxiously.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re sitting down to talk about the current events in the Middle East. (And hope that nothing we say becomes (too) dated in the 48-hours it takes us to hit publish on the episode.) The main point of discussion being the move higher we’ve seen in wholesale rates recently. We reference an upcoming speech from Governor Breman throughout the episode which we’ve now heard and reflected on. And you can find our take on the speech here. But over all the speech emphasised the need to take time to assess. So immediate hikes (as priced in wholesale rates) are highly unlikely.

We also discuss a bit on last week's GDP numbers and the risks for growth ahead.

It’s not a special guest episode, but you will notice a new face this week. We welcome Alexandra to the kiwi economics team & podcast. And we look forward to her sharing some labour market expertise in future episodes.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights ⁠here⁠.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Bringing external guests onto our podcast always makes for some of the best conversations. And our chat with Dan Heyworth, owner and co-founder of Box Design and Build, was no exception. We’ve been wanting to get some more on the ground insights on all things housing and construction. And having Dan on the show was the perfect guest to unpack how the sector is really fairing, the challenges the industry is up against and some of the forces capable of shaping the future of design and construction in NZ.

What began as a modular and prefabrication venture to address housing affordability quickly revealed some limitations. Dan shares how he learnt firsthand of the flawed design systems and, more importantly, the lack of consistent pipelines that makes prefab and modular solutions largely impractical in New Zealand. But there are still solutions to reduce the cost of building Kiwi homes. It’s all about simplification and standardisation. Dan walks us through how pattern books could help unlock more affordable and frictionless building across the country.

What really stood out to us though was Dan’s assessment of the housing market and in turn the construction industry. We’ve been hopeful that the significant rate easing we’ve had over the past year would help bring some life back into both sectors. But it’s just not feeding through yet. As Dan puts it, the last couple of years have been quite rubbish. And things are still moving sideways. From what Dan is seeing on the ground, the recovery in construction is not one that’s coming in the next 6–9-months. But instead, much further out into 2027-2028.

And that’s just the start of this jam‑packed episode. We also reminisce about the Covid‑era surge in demand for Kiwi pools, discuss the state of construction costs, and touch on New Zealand’s severe lack of investment. Plus, we also cover the ongoing loss of Kiwi construction talent overseas, and the growing role of AI in the industry.
Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We need to talk… about the war in the Middle East and the impacts on the global and Kiwi economy. Shipping traffic remains at a standstill at one of the world’s most strategically important oil choke points. And to no surprise, we’ve seen a massive spike in oil prices throughout the last week. With such disruptions, a near term lift in global and kiwi inflations is all but a done deal.But central banks are trained to look through near term noise. And what’s key here is that the downside risks to global and Kiwi growth majorly outweigh the upside inflation risks. We disagree with the talks of earlier rate hikes in response to such events. The weakening growth outlook simply matters more.Ultimately, we know that a rapid increase in oil prices acts like a tax on the consumer, simply straining weak household budgets further. And it’s not fair. The lift in petrol is going to hurt lower income households much more than higher income households. Meanwhile for many businesses, the conflict brings just another spanner in the works with a fresh wave of uncertainty. And under an already fragile demand environment, there will be pressure on margins as many businesses struggle to pass on higher costs. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.