We’re seeing a short-term spike in inflation right now. Food prices have reaccelerated, household energy costs are climbing, and rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing around global oil prices . These days it feels like there is cost pressure after cost pressure hitting households and businesses. All while growth is rather lacklustre. The word “stagflation” has been circulating both here at home and in the US. But we’re nowhere near that yet. So, we’re sitting down and talking about the recent lift in inflation and how Central Banks, like the Reserve Bank, should look through these short-term inflation spikes. After all, monetary policy is set for the medium term. And in the medium term, the real risk is that inflation undershoots the RBNZ 2% mid-point. Plus, Jarrod talks about his favourite (imaginary) tattoo: The Phillips Curve. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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24:19
3 mystics, 3 scenarios, and one clouded crystal ball. Revised outlook
We’ve just refreshed our forecasts for the Kiwi economy. And by no surprises, heightened global uncertainty and a likely slowdown in global trade has seen us downgrade our profile for Kiwi growth. So what does that mean for parts of the economy? We unpack our latest forecasts for the housing market, interest rates, inflation, and the labour market. You may be thinking how do you even forecast in times like these? We go through the how, including delving into two alternative paths the Kiwi economy could take. And we explain why forecasting is a very helpful tool precisely in times like these.Check out our full outlook note here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/weve-updated-our-forecasts-as-we-think-our-way-through-tumultuous-times/Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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30:43
Firms frontload, Fed waits, and friends fall out: a US special
It’s a US special this week. We know. These days most of our episodes already touch on some aspect of what’s going on over in the States, but this week we’re looking at some of the latest high frequency data out of the US to see how things are holding up amid tariff turmoil and friendship fallouts.We’ve seen a front loading of activity in anticipation of tariffs. And we may now be seeing the start of the unwind. After a surge in imports earlier this year, April saw the sharpest drop in U.S. imports on record. Meanwhile, sentiment data is sliding too. US PMIs continue to track further into contraction. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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17:52
A hawk and a dove at the same time. The RBNZ cuts 25
Hawkish here, dovish there. There was a bit of everything in the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement. And we’re delving into all the details...Now, if you just read the statement, the RBNZ’s easing bias was strengthened. The economic forecasts were lowered, and another 25bp rate cut was inserted into the OCR track. But if you listened to the press conference or noted the dissenting 5-1 vote, the RBNZ’s top brass were crystal clear in their clouded uncertainty. So how do we make sense of it? Where to from here? And, how have markets responded? We’re cover it all. The key takeaway: more rate cuts are coming. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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19:10
Behind the scenes and behind the numbers: Budget 2025
Ever wondered what it’s like in the day of a life as an economist on a major data release day? Well, consider this week's episode your backstage pass to Budget 2025. We’re talking through our experience at the Budget lock up in Banquet Hall. Everything from our rapid analysis, to even our (sad) lunch experience. We break down Treasury's new forecasts and delve into some of the new policies announced. Set against a challenging backdrop, Budget 2025 revealed an inevitable downgrade to the economic and fiscal outlook. A return to surplus is still achieved, but you’ll need a magnifying glass to see it. And the weaker reality, simply means more debt and issuance. Most importantly though, from our view, "the growth" budget still doesn't offer a lot in the way of growth. And reinforces the need for the RBNZ to deliver more stimulus to help the economy out of recession. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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