Why the mood is up, but momentum isn't? The state of Kiwi business
Greg Byrne, General Manager of Commercial Banking, joins us on this week’s episode to share insights into how Kiwi businesses are faring in the current climate. Optimism for the months ahead continues to grow, but the recession scars are still fresh. Cost pressures have eased but remain elevated. All the while firms' pricing power has diminished. It’s a combination that continues to squeeze and hurt profitability. As Greg points out, the focus for many businesses is squarely on revenue. It’s clear that a sustained recovery in demand has yet to be seen. And it’s why we still advocate for more rate relief. We also dive into business appetite towards investment & hiring, including the impacts of the Government’s ‘Investment Boost‘ scheme so far. Plus we cover the divergences in activity across sectors and regions.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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25:04
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25:04
A rich tapestry of complicated currency issues
Our Financial Markets Trader, Mieneke Perniskie, joins us on this week’s episode to dive into the world of currency. Recent events and headlines suggest the Kiwi should be in the 50s. Yet here we are with the bird close to breaching 61c. Broader themes are in play. Some are calling it Judgement Day for the US dollar. We discuss why that view is a tad bit dramatic.But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen.You can read our latest FX Tactical here: “Vexing volatility, unusual uncertainty, & polarising protectionism”Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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25:37
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25:37
Inflation is eye-watering to look through
We’re seeing a short-term spike in inflation right now. Food prices have reaccelerated, household energy costs are climbing, and rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing around global oil prices . These days it feels like there is cost pressure after cost pressure hitting households and businesses. All while growth is rather lacklustre. The word “stagflation” has been circulating both here at home and in the US. But we’re nowhere near that yet. So, we’re sitting down and talking about the recent lift in inflation and how Central Banks, like the Reserve Bank, should look through these short-term inflation spikes. After all, monetary policy is set for the medium term. And in the medium term, the real risk is that inflation undershoots the RBNZ 2% mid-point. Plus, Jarrod talks about his favourite (imaginary) tattoo: The Phillips Curve. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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24:19
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24:19
3 mystics, 3 scenarios, and one clouded crystal ball. Revised outlook
We’ve just refreshed our forecasts for the Kiwi economy. And by no surprises, heightened global uncertainty and a likely slowdown in global trade has seen us downgrade our profile for Kiwi growth. So what does that mean for parts of the economy? We unpack our latest forecasts for the housing market, interest rates, inflation, and the labour market. You may be thinking how do you even forecast in times like these? We go through the how, including delving into two alternative paths the Kiwi economy could take. And we explain why forecasting is a very helpful tool precisely in times like these.Check out our full outlook note here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/weve-updated-our-forecasts-as-we-think-our-way-through-tumultuous-times/Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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30:43
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30:43
Firms frontload, Fed waits, and friends fall out: a US special
It’s a US special this week. We know. These days most of our episodes already touch on some aspect of what’s going on over in the States, but this week we’re looking at some of the latest high frequency data out of the US to see how things are holding up amid tariff turmoil and friendship fallouts.We’ve seen a front loading of activity in anticipation of tariffs. And we may now be seeing the start of the unwind. After a surge in imports earlier this year, April saw the sharpest drop in U.S. imports on record. Meanwhile, sentiment data is sliding too. US PMIs continue to track further into contraction. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
New Zealand