The US’s reciprocal tariffs have been put on ice for 90 days. Several countries are coming to the negotiating table. It’s still incredibly difficult to say with any certainty what will result. But we take a crack at mapping three possible paths that the global economy could take from here. We unpack what each scenario could mean for the state of our economy, including the implications for central banks, interest rates, and broader global economic growth. Plus, we take a closer look at how markets have reacted so far. From a spike in volatility to a run-up in gold and an unorthodox flee from US assets, we dive into all the madness.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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28:20
Liberation day or obliteration day...it's mayhem in markets
We’re delving into the aftershock of Trump’s Obliteration, sorry Liberation, Day. Markets are in mayhem with HUGE drops across equities, commodity currencies and interest rates. The so-called reciprocal tariffs were worse than feared, especially for emerging Asia. The focus is now on retaliatory action. And China is already striking back. Things have only just begun. We were joined by Kiwibank Treasurer, Belinda Newman, to help us unpack all the moves in markets. The world as we know it is changing with a hundred years of reducing tariffs, and globalisation now reversing. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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22:12
Tariff turmoil drives currency markets. Where will the Kiwi dollar go from here?
Our Financial Markets Trader Mieneke Perniskie joins us on this week’s episode to talk all about currency. Our call on the Kiwi hitting 55c played out largely as we had thought. And we’re now looking to an eventual climb to 60c by year end. The here and now though sees the NZD rangebound at current levels with growing global downside risks. But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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21:26
One last goodbye to 2024. The Kiwi economy crawls out of recession
We know, we know! Why are we still talking about 2024? Well, we promise this is the last time (maybe). We recently received the latest economic report card. And given it shows us crawling out of recession, we figured it was worth covering the first step in the Kiwi economy’s recovery. We take a closer look at the industries driving growth, as well as those that are still facing challenges. But let's not dwell on almost 3month old data. We're looking ahead. Our attention is now on more recent, higher-frequency data which look promising for a turnaround in activity this year. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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19:21
Primary sector pulse picks up: Trade treks higher
This week’s episode is all about Kiwi trade. Specifically, looking at the positive movement we saw in our terms of trade at the end of last year. Higher meat and dairy export prices, strong production, and a favourable NZ dollar should provide a meaningful boost to export earnings and incomes for our farmers and rural regions. Looking to our export services, tourism levels have also edged their way closer to pre-covid levels. We also discuss how the lower Kiwi dollar is adding additional support for our Kiwi exports. And of course, we couldn’t go without touching on the potential headwinds created by looming Trump trade policies. Still, beyond all the noise, one crucial lesson stands out: the need to diversify our trade.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
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