It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big moves. Why? Because markets are coming around to what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: that tariffs will have an impact on demand and weaken global growth. We’re seeing that start to play out now. And markets are factoring it in. The market moves follow a week of woefully weak data. No matter where you looked, whether it was US payrolls, which incredibly disappointed, or Aussie’s soft inflation report, the impacts of tariffs and their accompanying uncertainty are becoming notable. Central banks are coming around to seeing the tariffs shock for what they are: a negative demand shock which will require lower interest rates. The same message applies here at home. And markets have responded to that. So, tune in as we cover all the latest moves in equities, rates and currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
-------- Â
22:22
--------
22:22
The regional divide widens as everything just gets better the further you go south.
This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up?For the most part, regions are performing better than last year. But they’re still far from their best. The average score across the motu lifted from a 3 out of 10 to 4. Meanwhile the South Island continues to outperform the North. Otago and Southland take the crown for best performance across the country. All while Wellington remained the weakest performer. Although to give them some credit, their score did improve from last year.Our look into the regions is extensive. So, alongside this week’s episode, be sure to also check out the full report here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/the-regional-divide-widens-as-everything-just-gets-better-the-further-you-go-south/It’s packed with even more regional insights, including some amazing anecdotes from our business bankers on the ground. Plus of course, more pretty charts. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
-------- Â
24:44
--------
24:44
Headline heads north. But core matters more.
Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool. It’s all about what’s really going on under the hood of the headline number. So, tune in as we break down the latest Kiwi inflation report. From what’s specifically driving the rise and where price pressures are coming off. Spoiler, it's the Interest rate-sensitive parts of the consumer basket that are notably weak. And that matters for the outlook on monetary policy. With excess capacity still sloshing around the economy, domestic inflation is set to continue easing. And taken together, this latest print adds weight to our case for more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
-------- Â
21:07
--------
21:07
RBNZ takes a breather. What happens next?
After six straight meetings delivering rate cuts, the RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at their July meeting. So, what does it all mean? Is this the end of the cutting cycle? Or is it really just a pause? And why pause now? What will influence the August decision?... We’re diving into all the questions you might have following last week’s decision. Policymakers around the globe are still grappling with trade tariffs and the inflationary implications. High uncertainty has forced central banks, from Wellington to Washington, into a wait and see mode. But the RBNZ's bias, rightly remains tilted toward further easing. We continue to advocate for a stimulatory (helpful) cash rate of 2.5%. From our stalled housing market recovery, to plummeting net migration and contracting manufacturing activity, signs of weakness are clear. Weakness, which is in itself, disinflationary. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
-------- Â
28:22
--------
28:22
Why the mood is up, but momentum isn't? The state of Kiwi business
Greg Byrne, General Manager of Commercial Banking, joins us on this week’s episode to share insights into how Kiwi businesses are faring in the current climate. Optimism for the months ahead continues to grow, but the recession scars are still fresh. Cost pressures have eased but remain elevated. All the while firms' pricing power has diminished. It’s a combination that continues to squeeze and hurt profitability. As Greg points out, the focus for many businesses is squarely on revenue. It’s clear that a sustained recovery in demand has yet to be seen. And it’s why we still advocate for more rate relief. We also dive into business appetite towards investment & hiring, including the impacts of the Government’s ‘Investment Boost‘ scheme so far. Plus we cover the divergences in activity across sectors and regions.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on this weekly series. We'll delve into data, decipher policy decisions, monitor the markets and analyse the issues impacting the Kiwi economy. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.
New Zealand