Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

How long will the war in the Middle East go on for? Oil price is one thing, supply is what we’re really worried about. But worryingly, the menu has changed. No more TACO, now we have NACHO. Not a chance Hormuz opens.
We talk about the labour market data report card. It’s not good. Underutilisation is still high, 13%, but that slack in the labour market puts downward pressure on wages, and therefore inflation.
Our view is that there’s sufficient disinflationary pressure in the economy such that the RBNZ has no reason to hike rates any time soon. We’ve been beating this drum for a while, and we stand by it.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely now. But we still have to face the prices.

We have a wholesale rates market pricing in three rate hikes by October. More hawkish than the most hawkish economists – but calls for rate hikes risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

While we wait, we look at the markets and shake our heads – desensitised feels like an apt description. US equity markets are still taking off. It's like the war isn't even happening.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.
Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Our inflation forecasts are on point, but we aren’t celebrating. CPI numbers out this week tell an uncomfortable story. Inflation at 3.1% is just above the RBNZ’s target band (again), with no big downside surprises to help ease cost pressures.
It’s painful to see the cost of essentials make another jump. Kiwi households struggling with the cost-of-living didn’t need food costs (fruits, vegetables and meats especially) to go up in price AGAIN in Q1 of 2026.
The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed that despite pressure on prices, Kiwi businesses are struggling. Uncertainty is too high and consumers just aren’t willing (or able) to accept higher prices.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has shot up over the years, and we don’t see it reversing, if anything it’s getting worse.
Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the guts from inflated fuel prices. We speculate over the length of the conflict and already, we are looking to 2027 for an economic recovery – it feels like this year is a bust.
And inflation has us talking about demand destruction, the soft economy and labour market. We have the immediate impact on prices, that causes a spike in inflation, but we don’t think that rate hikes are part of the story for this year.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

He’s back again, our reoccurring special guest Hamish Wilkinson (aka Wiklie), Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, joins us to talk currencies and uncertainties in global markets.
The war in the Middle East is ramping up or winding down, we aren’t really sure. But we speculate about what it means for the Kiwi economy. We’re especially worried about what a diesel shortage could to our essential services and key industries.
Wilkie talks us through what the currency pairings are doing (or not doing). Markets are barely responding to the crisis according to the volatility index is only just starting to creep up. Read more about it in our FX Tactical. Just like us, it seems that markets are waiting and watching the situation unfold anxiously.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.