Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity

• Is the neutral rate of interest going to start climbing after years of decline?

  Monetary and fiscal policymakers use a variety of metrics to inform their decisions, but among the most important is the neutral rate of interest, also known by economists as "r*," a number that isn't directly observable. It represents the prevailing rate of interest in a smooth-running economy, and can be thought of as a target for policymakers. A new study presents a model of r* showing its decline in recent decades, as well as some potential signs that it may start creeping back upward in the coming years. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Wendy Edelberg speaks to the authors of the new study, Lukasz Rachel of University College of London, about his research and the implications for the economy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

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• What jobs will be most affected by AI?

  Throughout history, human work has been augmented by technology. But the emergence of artificial intelligence tools have led many to ask whether an unprecedented shift in how we work with technology is imminent. In a new study, researchers used modern AI tools to look back at the recent history of technology's impact on work—which jobs were replaced, which were enhanced, and who was likely to benefit—and then used that model to look at the potential impacts of AI going forward. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, two of the study's authors, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Lawrence D. W. Schmidt, join a conversation with Brookings Senior Fellow Molly Kinder to discuss their findings and the policy implications. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

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• Are fertility rates falling because of social comparisons?

  Fertility rates are falling in many countries around the world, with births failing to keep pace with deaths in nearly half of countries. Researchers believe it's possible that the world's population will start shrinking in the near future, and the effects could be catastrophic for institutions like Social Security. A new paper explores a novel explanation for this decline in fertility: The role of social comparison between parents. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, David Wessel is joined by two of the authors to discuss the parental rat race, the high costs of education, and the impact of social media. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

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• How much is climate change costing US households?

  Studies of the economic impacts of climate change often look at long-term, national costs. A new BPEA study takes a different approach, focusing on the current household level costs attributable to changing weather. The report authors examine a range of impacts, from mortality costs due of wildfire smoke to rising insurance costs along coastlines, to provide estimates of annual costs by region and socioeconomic status. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, two of the authors, Kimberly Clausing and Catherine Wolfram, join host Samantha Gross for a discussion of their findings and the implications for policymakers. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

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• How do tariffs hurt the dollar?

  Roughly two thirds of countries on Earth stabilize their currency against the U.S. dollar. The relationship has benefits in both directions: Smaller countries enjoy better stability for their national currencies, and U.S. companies and government get low borrowing rates, among other benefits. But a new BPEA paper, "Trade War and the dollar anchor," highlights how U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs by other countries are putting pressure on the dollar's place at the heart of world monetary system. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, one of the paper's coauthors, Tarek Hassan of Boston University, will speak with Brookings Director of Trade and Economic Statecraft Kari Heerman about his study. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

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