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I wouldn’t sell your Australian shares, but I’d put most new money into global shares. The ASX is concentrated, expensive, and slow-growing. The ASX 200 returned a solid 9.4% a year over the past decade, but that came mostly from banks and BHP, and the top 10 stocks now make up half the index. In this episode, I look at what’s likely to drive future returns: valuations, high dividend payout ratios, oligopolies, a 2% technology weighting, and weak per capita GDP and productivity growth. I also cover the case for keeping your existing Australian holdings, including franking credits, income, and population growth.
00:00 Introduction
 00:40 Not anti-Australia, just an investment view
 01:15 Past returns: the ASX vs global shares over 10 years
 02:48 The real question: where should new capital go?
 03:25 How concentrated the ASX 200 has become
 05:04 Valuation: ASX vs global shares
 05:40 CBA vs Alphabet: similar PE ratios, very different growth
 07:06 An economy built on digging and shipping
 08:40 High dividend payout ratios and the cost to growth
 09:47 Franking credits and the case for retaining profits
 11:04 Where’s the innovation?
 13:39 Oligopolies and the lack of competition
 14:34 The supermarket example
 16:04 Where shareholder returns actually come from
 17:07 Technology: 2% of the ASX vs 40% of the S&P 500
 18:41 The wealth equation and compounding growth
 19:16 Why Australia produces few large startups
 22:51 Summing up the observations
 23:10 GDP growth per capita: Australia vs the US
 24:46 Labour productivity
 26:54 The positives: reasons to keep Australian shares
 29:41 What to do: keep existing holdings, direct new money globally
 31:49 Next week: where share market returns come from
Related episodes:
 Ep 397: Australian vs International Shares: Why the 45:55 split does not add up
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/18714304-ep-397-australian-vs-international-shares-why-the-45-55-split-does-not-add-up
Ep 432: Bond ETFs vs 10-Year government bonds: Lock in or not?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/20012238-ep-432-bond-etfs-vs-10-year-government-bonds-lock-in-or-not
Q&A - Bucket company asset allocation: trust or company?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/20011909-q-a-bucket-company-asset-allocation-trust-or-company
Optional:
 Ep 318: Why does Australia’s share market always underperform?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/15604297-ep-318-why-does-australia-s-share-market-always-underperform

Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
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Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

Moving into a rentvested property no longer dilutes your CGT because of the 1 July 2027 deemed disposal. I’d keep one property CGT-free.
In this listener Q&A, I explain why Daniel’s plan to move into one of his rentvested properties won’t work under the new rules, and why every rentvester should protect at least one CGT-free home. Steve wants to sell his investment property to buy a $2 million home. If the original decision was sound, I’d stick with it, because the real risk is executing a sell-and-rebuy in a low-supply market. A 40-year-old asks whether to keep investing through a family trust or top up his wife’s super. I’d do both, and not react to the proposed trust tax yet. Dave asks about internally geared ETFs outside super, and I explain why I’d wait for a correction. Finally, a couple weighs a second investment property against debt recycling. Without an immediate interest deduction on new property, I’d debt recycle.
00:00 Intro and the Wealth by Design audiobook
 01:14 Steve: sell the investment property to buy a $2M home?
 03:27 Why I expect the property tax changes to be reversed
 05:00 The risk of selling in a low-supply market
 06:07 Being picky vs finicky: no property is perfect
 06:57 Execution risk if sentiment turns
 07:34 Stick with a good original decision
 09:08 Adding some regular share investing
 09:46 Daniel: moving into a rentvested property
 10:59 How the partial main residence exemption works
 11:39 Rented first vs occupied first
 12:44 Why the 1 July 2027 deemed disposal breaks the strategy
 14:01 A defensible market value on 1 July 2027
 14:21 The biggest downside of rentvesting
 14:36 Using the six-year rule
 15:35 Listener feedback: building wealth predictably
 17:44 Family trust ETFs or super contributions?
 18:53 Will you really work for another 20 years?
 19:31 Evening up super balances
 20:05 Why the trust tax proposal shouldn’t drive this decision
 21:00 ETFs outside super as a bridge to earlier retirement
 21:48 Rollover options and multi-class companies
 23:05 Don’t react yet
 23:54 Dave: geared ETFs outside super?
 24:14 Internal gearing vs an investment loan
 25:46 My own GEAR and GGUS trades
 26:57 Second investment property or debt recycling?
 28:50 Waiting years for an interest deduction on new property
 30:10 Why property growth rates have to ease
 31:02 Shares: a higher pre-tax return and an immediate deduction
 31:39 Debt recycling and getting the structure right
 32:48 When a bigger property budget changes the answer
 33:12 Coming up: has Australia become uninvestable?
Related episodes:
 Q&A: Upgrade or rentvest, home equity loans, and going non-resident
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19862011-q-a-upgrade-or-rentvest-home-equity-loans-and-going-non-resident
Q&A - ETF portfolio construction at 28: is 8.4% too low?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19978320-q-a-etf-portfolio-construction-at-28-is-8-4-too-low
Q&A - Debt recycling when you sell your home: keep the deduction
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19934965-q-a-debt-recycling-when-you-sell-your-home-keep-the-deduction
Ep 423: Negative gearing deferred - here’s how to manage the cash flow gap
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19680010-ep-423-negative-gearing-deferred-heres-how-to-manage-the-cash-flow-gap
Ep 425: Family trust investing: Are trusts still worth it under proposed tax changes?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19764156-ep-425-family-trust-investing-are-trusts-still-worth-it-under-proposed-tax-changes
Ep 429: How much do you need to retire & are you on track? Work it out here.
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19893951-ep-429-how-much-do-you-need-to-retire-are-you-on-track-work-it-out-here
Ep 411: Should you invest all your super into an internally geared ETF
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19251945-ep-411-should-you-invest-all-your-super-into-an-internally-geared-etf
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

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10-year bonds near 5.2% look good, but I’d rather use subordinated debt ETFs. They pay about 1% more with almost no interest rate risk. A listener asked whether it’s time to lock in long-dated fixed-rate bonds now that yields are at their highest in about 15 years. In this episode, I explain duration and credit risk, why it’s hard to earn more than your starting yield, and how to measure the term premium properly. I then compare long-dated government bonds with subordinated debt ETFs such as SUBD and BSUB, and cover their risks: thin credit spreads and the money flowing in as bank hybrids wind down. I also explain the difference between running yield and yield to maturity, using the PIMCO global bond ETF (PGBF) the listener asked about.
00:00 Introduction
 00:39 Listener question: Is it time to lock in duration?
 01:31 What duration means
 02:51 Why interest rates have become harder to forecast
 04:35 10-year bonds at 5.2% vs a 4.6% cash rate
 06:25 Spoiler: why I’d look elsewhere
 06:47 Term premium explained using term deposits
 08:03 Duration risk
 10:02 Credit risk and credit spreads
 13:05 Why holding to maturity doesn’t remove the risk
 13:58 Why it’s hard to out-earn your starting yield
 15:32 How to measure the term premium properly
 17:50 Is today’s term premium above average?
 19:47 What’s changed: the options now open to investors
 20:59 Subordinated debt ETFs: BSUB and SUBD
 24:54 Subordinated debt vs government bonds: an extra 1% or more
 27:15 Why bank hybrids are being phased out
 28:36 The risks: thin credit spreads and contagion
 30:46 Moving up the credit scale: QPON and AGVT
 31:02 Do bonds still protect a share portfolio?
 32:24 Why we focus on absolute return
 32:40 PGBF: running yield vs yield to maturity
 34:41 Summing up

Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

A bucket company doesn’t change my allocation: I’d still favour global shares. Rebalance with new money and dividends, not by selling.
Campbell here, filling in for Stuart. Simon has $2 million in a bucket company and too much in Australian shares. I explain why the new minimum 30% tax on capital gains levels the playing field for companies, why retained franking credits are so valuable, and how to reweight without paying unnecessary capital gains tax. Penguin Guy has an ETF portfolio in a family trust. I cover whether rollover relief lets him move it into personal names or a separate investment company, how company dividends end up taxed, and why investments should never sit inside your trading company. A 58-year-old listener asks when to accept that an investment thesis hasn’t played out, after nine years without growth on a South Yarra apartment. My answer is to hold, switch to interest-only and focus on super. Finally, Wayne asks about using carry-forward concessional contributions before his income passes $250,000. I cover spouse contribution splitting and why you must lodge a notice of intent.
If you run a business through a trust, Business by Design covers trading structures in more depth: https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
00:00 Campbell fills in, and where the question queue is up to
 01:16 A South Yarra apartment with no growth in nine years
 03:15 When to accept an investment thesis hasn’t played out
 05:36 Melbourne’s flat cycle and why holding still makes sense
 06:39 Cash flow neutral: switch to interest-only and build super
 08:08 Simon: asset allocation inside a bucket company
 09:08 The CGT discount and the new minimum 30% tax
 10:36 Why a company can beat a trust on income tax
 11:18 Franking credits that build up in an investment company
 12:35 Australian vs global shares in a company
 14:11 Episode 397 and a higher international allocation
 15:17 Reweighting with new money: turn off dividend reinvestment
 17:15 Wayne: carry-forward contributions before Division 293
 17:54 How spouse contribution splitting works
 19:17 Why split: the $500,000 cap, transfer balance cap and age gaps
 21:48 The government co-contribution for a low-income spouse
 22:29 Do you need a notice of intent to claim?
 23:22 Which year’s unused cap gets used first
 24:11 Division 293 and the $250,000 threshold
 25:31 Penguin Guy: trusts under the proposed minimum tax
 26:44 Business trusts and the minimum 30% tax
 28:34 The flexibility you give up in a company
 29:44 Rollover relief for an investment trust
 30:38 Stamp duty, and what one state has said
 31:15 Can you roll over into your personal name?
 32:10 Selling inside a company and paying dividends
 33:49 When holding investments in your own name is fine
 35:04 Why investments shouldn’t sit in your trading company
 36:13 Wrap-up
Related episodes:
 Ep 397: Australian vs International Shares: Why the 45:55 split does not add up
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/18714304-ep-397-australian-vs-international-shares-why-the-45-55-split-does-not-add-up
Ep 425: Family trust investing: Are trusts still worth it under proposed tax changes?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19764156-ep-425-family-trust-investing-are-trusts-still-worth-it-under-proposed-tax-changes
Ep 422: Blame the 20-year growth cycle, not necessarily the Victorian government
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19642011-ep-422-blame-the-20-year-growth-cycle-not-necessarily-the-victorian-government
Q&A - Sequence of returns risk retiring early: bridging to super
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19885744-q-a-sequence-of-returns-risk-retiring-early-bridging-to-super
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

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Have full cover while you’re young and it’s cheap, then cut it back as your assets grow. Income protection matters most, trauma the least.
In this episode I explain how we calculate life, TPD and income protection cover, and why the final step is weighing the premium against what that money could earn if you invested it instead. I also cover:
Why we always use stepped premiums rather than level premiums
Why life and TPD belong inside super and income protection outside it
Choosing waiting periods and policy definitions for income protection
When to review your cover, and why yearly reviews can lull you into keeping too much
The insurance calculator worksheet is free to download from the new resource site at investopoly.com.au.
00:00 Introduction and the new Investopoly resource site
 03:57 Insurance as a necessary evil
 04:58 Why most advice recommends too much cover
 05:55 The four types: life, TPD, income protection and trauma
 08:36 TPD insurance: own occupation vs any occupation
 10:22 The tension between paying for cover and investing
 11:19 Cutting cover back as your asset base grows
 13:34 How your insurance needs change across life stages
 15:21 Stepped vs level premiums
 18:21 How to calculate life and TPD cover
 20:42 Weighing affordability against cost
 22:33 How much income protection you need
 23:26 How premiums and benefits are taxed
 25:33 Where to hold life and TPD cover
 26:50 Income protection waiting periods
 27:55 Policy quality and the three-tier definition
 29:01 Why thorough underwriting is worth the hassle
 30:06 Trauma insurance: the most optional cover
 32:24 When to review your insurance
 34:34 Next week: bonds
Related episodes:
How much you need to retire (October 2026). Referenced at 00:18, and the cut-back-as-assets-grow argument relies on the same are-you-on-track thinking.
The super report episode (July 2026). Related because it covers choosing a super fund, and this episode covers which funds have competitively priced life and TPD cover inside super.
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.