Investopoly

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Russell says advice adds 5.5% a year and Vanguard says 3%. A disciplined, rules-based approach captures much of that, but not all of it. I think these reports overstate things by assuming that without an adviser you'll panic, chase returns and keep changing strategy. In this episode I split the mistakes the reports cite into two groups: the ones a rules-based framework prevents, like concentrated portfolios, cash drag and return chasing, and the ones it can't, like ownership structures, how to allocate surplus cash flow, and super contribution strategy. I also cover why knowing the rules isn't the same as following them, the March 2020 test of your own discipline, and the portfolio size at which advice pays for itself.
00:00 The "advisor fee: $0" bill that prompted this episode
 00:55 Revisiting episode 319 and the Russell and Vanguard reports
 01:51 Why I'm sceptical of these estimates
 02:31 What if you already follow a rules-based framework?
 03:23 Breaking down Russell's 5.5%
 04:53 Vanguard's Adviser's Alpha framework
 06:07 The wealth equation and where mistakes cost real money
 07:25 Separating the mistakes rules can and can't prevent
 07:46 Portfolio design mistakes a rules-based approach fixes
 10:20 Complexity and knowledge gaps rules can't fix
 12:34 When the numbers make advice worthwhile
 13:18 Why knowing what to do isn't enough
 16:15 The best days in the market and why indexing works
 17:48 The acid test: what did you do in March and April 2020?
 20:19 Economies of scale: when advice pays for itself
 22:12 Choosing an adviser as a decision that moves the dial
 22:59 Using someone you trust as a sounding board
 23:52 Summing up
 25:26 Next week: how much insurance you actually need
Related episodes:
Episode 319 (2024): my earlier look at the value of financial advice, focused on portfolio size and complexity. Referenced at 00:55 and again at 20:19.
Episode 414: the handful of life decisions that really move the dial. Referenced at 22:12.
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

Selling your home needn’t undo debt recycling. I’d substitute the security with a term deposit or your next home to keep it deductible.
In this listener Q&A I walk Dave through substitution of security and simultaneous settlements, and explain why I’d pay a little more for a flexible lender. I then answer Marcus on whether to offset an investment loan or use a high-interest savings account. On the top marginal rate the offset usually wins, unless a low-income spouse changes the maths. I also cover why I wouldn’t pay investment debt down to zero. For Michael, I explain why you shouldn’t keep an average property just for the negative gearing, and how much leverage a 30-year-old actually needs. Dominic asks about moving assets out of a family trust ahead of the proposed 30% minimum tax, and my answer is still to do nothing yet. Nathan asks who benefits from quarantined negative gearing, and what the UK’s experience tells us about housing affordability.
00:00 Nathan: who benefits from quarantined negative gearing?
 01:19 Vested interests: new builds, commercial and offshore buyer’s agents
 03:00 Why commercial property yields don’t stack up
 04:34 Lessons from the UK’s property tax changes
 08:32 Tax settings only move affordability at the margin
 09:30 Dominic: moving assets out of a family trust
 10:01 Two minimum 30% taxes, and why to do nothing yet
 11:05 CGT rollover relief and the stamp duty problem
 11:53 Will the trust tax be rescinded before the 2028 election?
 13:49 What common-sense tax reform would look like
 15:13 Business as usual for your discretionary trust
 15:35 Michael: should I sell an average investment property?
 18:00 Don’t hold an asset just for negative gearing
 18:40 Property vs shares: the power of leverage
 21:19 Never a bad time to sell a bad asset
 23:07 Dave: debt recycling when you sell your home
 24:21 Substitution of security using a term deposit
 25:54 Simultaneous settlement from old home to new
 26:27 If the bank repays your loan by mistake
 27:16 Why lender flexibility beats a lower rate
 29:01 Revaluations and using lenders in the right order
 30:24 Marcus: offset an investment loan or use a savings account?
 31:16 Comparing before-tax and after-tax interest rates
 32:39 When a non-working spouse changes the answer
 34:14 Why not to pay investment debt down to zero
 35:47 Coming up: do you really need a financial adviser?
Related episodes:
 Q&A: Upgrade or rentvest, home equity loans, and going non-resident
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19862011-q-a-upgrade-or-rentvest-home-equity-loans-and-going-non-resident
Q&A - Choosing a pension account, topping up in retirement, and offset versus debt recycling
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19803896-q-a-choosing-a-pension-account-topping-up-in-retirement-and-offset-versus-debt-recycling
Q&A - Deploying an inheritance, selling an average property, and funding a long retirement
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19832494-q-a-deploying-an-inheritance-selling-an-average-property-and-funding-a-long-retirement
Q&A - Sequence of returns risk retiring early: bridging to super
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19885744-q-a-sequence-of-returns-risk-retiring-early-bridging-to-super
Ep 425: Family trust investing: Are trusts still worth it under proposed tax changes?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19764156-ep-425-family-trust-investing-are-trusts-still-worth-it-under-proposed-tax-changes
Why common-sense tax reform is vital to Australia’s future
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/14044773
Optional:
 Ep 426: The do not invest list: why good investors say no
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19748907-ep-426-the-do-not-invest-list-why-good-investors-say-no
Ep 423: Negative gearing deferred - here's how to manage the cash flow gap
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19680010-ep-423-negative-gearing-deferred-heres-how-to-manage-the-cash-flow-gap
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

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To spend $120k a year from age 60, you need about $3m to never touch your capital, or $2.1m if you plan to run it down to zero by 90. Most super calculators can't tell you whether you're on track, because they ignore investments held outside super, especially geared property, and they don't handle retiring before 60. In this episode, I walk through a set of tables you can use to add up your super, ETFs, and investment property and see where you'll land. I also cover how to choose between a perpetual and a depleting portfolio, why $1 contributed to super grows to nearly $47 compared with $21 outside it, and what to do if you're well behind or well ahead of your target. The tables and worked examples are on the blog, linked above.
00:00 Introduction and podcast ratings update
 02:58 Why super calculators don't tell you if you're on track
 04:12 The numbers: $2.1m depleting vs $3m perpetual
 06:28 The early retirement problem: accessing super before 60
 07:45 The wealth equation and why time matters most
 08:07 Perpetual vs depleting portfolio: which to choose
 11:31 Return assumptions and sequencing risk
 12:30 Why life expectancy favours a perpetual portfolio
 14:16 Modelling assumptions: returns, inflation and tax
 17:14 Selling assets at retirement and the cost base assumption
 19:30 How to use the tables
 22:06 Investing inside vs outside super: $47 vs $21
 23:07 Table 7: retiring before 60
 24:58 Worked example: couple aged 40 with super and ETFs
 26:04 Worked example: geared property investors aged 35
 28:33 Table 8: spending more than $120,000 a year
 29:49 What to do if you're materially behind target
 32:19 What to do if you're materially ahead of target
 33:57 Caveats and limitations of the modelling
Related episodes:
Episode 402 (March 2026): on spending more today, or in the healthy years of retirement, once you're well on track. Stuart references this episode directly at 32:19.
The super report episode (July 2026): on choosing the right super fund. Stuart references this at 25:46.
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

Sequence-of-returns risk in early retirement is manageable with a big enough cash buffer. What I'd test is how you'll feel spending it.
In this listener Q&A, I work through Michael's plan to retire at 52 and use an ETF portfolio plus three years of living expenses in an offset to cover the eight to ten years until he can access super. I also explain why I like locking in an undrawn loan facility before you need it. Then I look at a 33-year-old couple's debt recycling bonus and RSU income into ETFs, and where ownership structure, tax drag, and internally geared ETFs fit in. I cover what the draft 30% minimum tax on discretionary trusts means for passive investment trusts (short answer: do nothing yet). I finish with whether money above $250,000 in an offset account is at risk.
00:00 Michael's question: retiring at 52, before super access
 02:39 Do the numbers stack up?
 03:15 Building a valuation-aware ETF portfolio
 04:43 The behavioural test: spending your cash buffer in a downturn
 06:15 Should Michael gear any further?
 07:58 Locking in borrowing capacity: borrow when you don't need it
 11:47 Listener two: debt recycling RSUs and bonuses into ETFs
 12:54 Why RSUs matter for blue-chip property demand
 15:59 Spouse super contributions, and a tax policy idea
 18:20 Super contribution splitting
 19:42 Ownership structure for a debt-recycled portfolio
 23:03 ETF distributions and tax drag
 24:24 Is a non-trading investment company worth it?
 25:21 Internally geared ETFs: GHHF and GBGL
 27:14 Justin's question: the proposed 30% minimum tax on trusts
 28:26 Problems with the draft legislation
 30:09 Options: gearing, CGT rollover, fixed elections
 31:09 Why to wait: 1 July 2028 start and an election first
 32:25 Craig's question: offsets above the $250,000 guarantee
 34:15 Checking whether your lender is an ADI
 34:31 Coming up: are you on track if your wealth is outside super?
Related episodes:
 Ep 427: How to assess whether property and share markets are attractively priced
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19832497-ep-427-how-to-assess-whether-property-and-share-markets-are-attractively-priced
Ep 425: Family trust investing: Are trusts still worth it under proposed tax changes?
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19764156-ep-425-family-trust-investing-are-trusts-still-worth-it-under-proposed-tax-changes
Q&A - Cash-heavy at 48, bridging to early retirement, and debt-free at 31
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19753485-q-a-cash-heavy-at-48-bridging-to-early-retirement-and-debt-free-at-31
Optional:
 Q&A - Untangling a messy structure, cutting losses, and low-income investing
 https://investopoly.buzzsprout.com/2005600/episodes/19720854-q-a-untangling-a-messy-structure-cutting-losses-and-low-income-investing
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

Read Full Blog Here
Back in 2023, Stuart argued that inflation and rates could stay higher for longer than most expected, drawing on 50 years of history showing that once inflation tops 8%, it typically takes a decade or more to settle. That call has aged well: after cutting through 2025, the RBA has already hiked three times in 2026, and underlying inflation has climbed back to 3.6% in a second wave the Bank's own models failed to anticipate.
But revisiting the research has sharpened his thinking. Stuart walks through three forces keeping inflation elevated: a less aggressive RBA, government spending, and the AI data-centre boom competing for the same workers and materials, while weighing newer studies suggesting credible inflation targets may tame it faster than the grim 11-year median implies.
His most important point has had too little attention: rate rises may simply bite less than they did 20 years ago. An ageing population, older households holding savings rather than debt, and mortgage offset balances up 49% since 2022 all mean a growing share of spending comes from people barely touched by higher rates. The uncomfortable corollary: cuts may not revive spending either. If your strategy relies on rate cuts, stress-test it.
Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X
Run your own business? 
Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/
Our most popular free guides:
Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.
Download them here
Got a question for the podcast?
Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au
Subscribe to my weekly blog:
Stay connected here
Important
This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.