In this Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, Founder and Publisher of the TF Metals Report, joins me to analyze the peak hawkishness in the precious metals market since last week. We dive into the macroeconomic backdrop as it relates to interest rates and Fed policy and the fallout after Kevin Warsh chaired his first FED meeting 2 weeks ago and addressed the markets focused on price stability.
Craig wrote an article last week titled: “Peak Hawk” outlining some of the topics we dove into during this discussion, and there is a link to that here:
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/13750/peak-hawk
Technical Levels to Watch:
Craig comments on the break-down in gold, silver, and PM ETF breaking below the 200-day moving average, and 50-week moving averages as just a ‘piling on’ effect from this peak hawkishness in the markets.
He believes most of the corrective move has happened at this point, and is anticipating 2026 to end somewhere around flat on the year; which he notes wouldn’t be too bad after the outsized gains in gold and silver in 2024 and 2025 on a percentage basis.
He points out we may need that last capitulation move this summer to wash out any remaining weak hands, and to then base and bring in the new buyers that cause shorts to cover and begin a new upleg.
Craig also points to the flattening yield curve, and where the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have been trending as a factor worth paying attention to.
Kevin Warsh Will Be Speaking In Europe this Wednesday:
Kevin Warsh is participating in a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking. Craig will be watching to see if he emphasizes the hawkish hold or dials it back a little at this meeting.
The Fed funds futures are now anticipating 1-2 rate hikes this year versus the initially market anticipated rate cuts, coming into this year. We discuss the likelihood of the market has now swung so hawkish, that it may be excessive and misplaced.
Even if we see an initial hawkish rate hike, Craigs sees that as posturing, and doesn’t anticipate that we’d have long to wait after that before the economic data on inflation softens with lower energy prices now, and that monetary policy will adjusts course in the opposite direction, in a more dovish playbook… like it has over and over again historically.
We’ll Get The Jobs Data on Thursday This Week:
The June BLS jobs report will be released on July 2, 2026, which is expected to show the creation of 172,000 new jobs. We are getting this data on Thursday, due to the observance of Independence Day on Friday.
Additionally, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also be reported this week.
The Macroeconomic Fundamentals Haven’t Changed:
Sovereign debt remains at record levels and most nations can not endure interest rates that go up to drastically. Craig highlights that “The Math is the math.”
Throughout history, central banks have opted for printing more money and driving interest rates meaningfully lower, to inflate their way out of economic challenges, and to pay off higher interest debt with lower-rate debt.
Overall, central banks continue to add gold to their balance sheets versus adding more US or foreign treasuries.
Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.