The KE Report

Nick Hodge, Co-Owner of Digest Publishing and editor of Foundational Profits and Underground Alpha, joins us for our monthly longer-format discussion on assortment of messy macroeconomic factors, how he is navigating the bearish metals price trends, and portfolio management strategies in select gold, copper, lithium, rare earths, and uranium stocks.

 

We start off reviewing the mix of messy macroeconomic movers like:

Market effects from the rising US Dollar – over 100 and climbing

Rising short-term interest rates at the short-end of the yield curve due to Fed policy and Warsh’s meeting and press conference last week; contrasted against flattening rates at the long-end of the curve

Rising inflation readings, but wild fluctuations between monthly and quarterly trends

Knock-on effects from geopolitics and continued uncertainty around the US/Iran MOU and supposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Fluid situation causing increased volatility and impulsive reactions in both directions

Sovereign debt loads and how rising rates will pressure global governments

Capex investments in AI data-center build-outs are ongoing.   

 

The majority of the macro news has been a headwind to the commodities sector, but it is a messy situation because there are positive tailwinds present at the same time.  We discussed the pullback in oil prices, in precious metals prices, and copper prices and how Nick is navigating these markets.

After touching the hot stove in a few instances, (after taking a nibble at the GDXJ only to see it fall a bit further), he is not interested in trying to pick a bottom or “catch the falling knife” in most commodities.

Nick would prefer to see a sustainable real low put in for each respective commodity, like the PMs or Oil or Copper, and for a new uptrend to assert itself before deploying any more new capital.

He is more than happy to have a certain portfolio weighting to cash to wait out any more near-term market corrections, and is willing to deploy more cash once the turn higher is more clear.

 

With regards to portfolio management, Nick is concentrating his portfolio into less positions and fortifying his highest conviction investment stories with compelling catalysts.  He is more likely to trim or sell positions that were picked up based on bullish metals price direction, or as a result of spinouts, or where he is not as confident on the assets or management teams.  He recommends investors take inventory of what they own, and the investment case for why they own it and only be in the higher conviction stories.

 

Nick highlighted Gladiator Metals Corp. (TSXV: GLAD) (OTCQB: GDTRF) for copper, and Revival Gold Inc. (TSXV: RVG) (OTCQX: RVLGF) for gold as 2 positions he has held for some time in his portfolio that he is happy to hold through any more volatility and even add to in their weighting.  He points out that both companies have solid management teams and projects, and both still have a lot of drilling on tap for this season as a catalyst.

There are also gold stocks on his watchlist that are becoming more attractive during this ongoing sector correction, like Mayfair Gold Corp. (TSXV: MFG) (NYSE American: MINE), Tiernan Gold Corp. (TSXV : TNGD), or copper stocks like Amerigo Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARG) (OTCQX: ARREF) or Ero Copper Corp. (TSX: ERO, NYSE: ERO) that he is keeping a close eye on for a potential future position.

 

When reviewing where he is seeing the most strength in the commodities sector, Nick highlights the Critical Minerals as having been the most resilient.

He points out that the Global X Lithium and Battery ETF (NYSE: LIT) and lithium developers like Q2 Metals Corp. (TSX.V: QTWO) (OTCQB: QUEXF) and PMET Resources Inc. (TSX: PMET) (ASX: PMT) (OTCQX: PMETF) have held up better than most other metals or resource stocks.

Nick highlights the ongoing direct investment and policy initiatives into the rare earths processors, separators, recyclers, noting prior investments into USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR), MP Materials (NYSE: MP), or the news this week where Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU) (TSX: EFR) was approved for a $725 million financing commitment from the Department of War, U.S. Office of Strategic Capital, to support infrastructure and capacity to process rare earth elements and other critical materials.

Uranium and nuclear stocks have also been soft ever since the big move up in January, but Nick outlined the continued support from many sovereign nations to invest in both their nuclear infrastructure as well as uranium miners with projects of significance.

Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) announced yesterday a conditional commitment for a loan package of up to US$17.5 billion by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) to reenergize the large-scale nuclear reactor supply chain, drive down costs, and accelerate the deployment of AP1000 reactors in the US and globally.

 

Click here to follow Nick’s analysis and publications over at Digest Publishing

 

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

 

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Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Justin Huhn, Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider, joins me for yet another very comprehensive macro update on the supply and demand fundamentals for uranium and the nuclear fuel sector.  Justin provides some boots-on-the-ground feedback, after just recently attending the  WNFM 52nd Annual Meeting and International Conference on Nuclear Fuel in Scottsdale, Arizona. We discuss primary versus secondary demand, how the longer-term contracting cycle is setting up with utility companies, different bottlenecks in the nuclear fuel cycle, and how he is positioning in the uranium equities that feed the front-end of that supply chain.

 

This is a longer-format discussion building upon our prior conversations throughout 2024 and 2025, because even more key macro news and company developments continue to be announced in the nuclear and uranium sector.

 

We start off reviewing the Primary Demand drivers for uranium from the existing global fleet of nuclear reactors, which is augmented by the many reactor life extensions and restarts, as well as all the new reactors coming online over the next decade that are under construction or planned.  The investing case for uranium bulls is compelling even with conservative modeling on this primary demand out for the next 5-10 years.

 

Next we layer on the various aspects of Secondary Demand that are harder to model,  but will definitely have an additive effect on overall global uranium demand:

 

Financial demand from entities like the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, Yellowcake, hedge funds, institutional buyers, etc…

Sovereign stockpiles and strategic reserves

Utility companies inventory stockpiles

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) demand

Military demand

 

Next we transition over the supply side of the equation focusing on the uranium mining companies. We’ve seen a flurry of news the last couple years out of the U308 producers, many of which have been struggling to ramp up production.

Justin unpacks his outlook on mined supply from Kazatomprom, the largest uranium swing producer in Kazakhstan, the slow ramp up of Uzbekistan production, missed guidance last year from Canadian senior uranium producer Cameco (CCO.V) (CCJ), and the slow but steady ramp up of US producers.

Each country and the producing entities have had a series of setbacks and challenges to hit their annual guidance, which has kept supply and inventories tight.  

 

Next we point out that large development projects in the Athabasca Basin of Canada, like the Phoenix Project held by Denison Mines (TSX: DML) (NYSE: DNN), and in specific the importance of the Arrow Project from NexGen Energy (TSX: NXE) (NYSE: NXE), seeing their production timelines get pushed back to 2030 or later. There is very little new supply coming online globally, with the exception of some smaller production out of the US, Namibia, and Australian producers. All of this points to a much more constrained output from global uranium producers, even in face of growing uranium demand.

 

Justin weighs in on the importance of seeing more developers and explorers move their projects forward, and that the exploration stocks in particular have been left for dead by investors and represent compelling value propositions in this current environment.

 

Wrapping up we discuss the utility and diversification with some of the sector ETFs like (URA), (URNM), (URNJ), and (NUKZ), and the interesting potential buy-the-dip moment in the nuclear stocks, while the markets are quiet with less speculative participation.

 

Click here to visit the Uranium Insider website.

 

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

 

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

John Miniotis, President and CEO of AbraSilver Resource Corp (TSX: ABRA) (OTCQX: ABBRF), joins me to review the news out June 22nd, announcing the updated project economics in the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS) on the Company’s wholly owned Diablillos property in Argentina.  We look at the multiple value levers the company has to pull on for a rerating to higher once the upcoming Phase 2 economics study incorporates the heap leach or higher throughput rates, in addition to all exploration and resource expansion potential and even just the upside present if rerated higher to peer comparable metrics.

 

In May the company released an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”), which demonstrated significant growth across the Project, with Measured & Indicated (“M&I”) resources now totaling 232 million tonnes (“Mt”), containing approximately 248 million ounces (“Moz”) of silver and 2.54 Moz of gold (454 Moz silver-equivalent “AgEq”). For the first time ever, the DFS released this week includes the Project reserves as proven and probable ounces.

Increased Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves of 77.9 Mt grading 146 g/t Ag Eq, containing 183 Moz Ag and 1.8 Moz Au (366 Moz AgEq), estimated from an open pit optimized using metal prices of $29.50/oz Ag and $2,800/oz Au.

 

The DFS positions Diablillos as one of the world's premier undeveloped silver-gold projects, based on a stand-alone 9,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) processing operation that delivers robust economics, high early production levels and low operating costs.

 

DFS Study Highlights:

After-tax NPV5% of $3.0 billion (CAD$ 4.2 billion), 41.9% IRR and 1.7-year payback at base-case metal prices.
At spot prices1, after-tax NPV5% increases to $4.8 billion (CAD$6.7 billion) with an IRR of 56.5% and payback of 1.4 years.

Average annual production of 20 Moz silver equivalent (“AgEq”) during the first five years of full mine production, comprised of 14 Moz Ag and 89 koz Au;
Average life-of-mine (“LOM”) annual production of 10 Moz AgEq, comprised of 5.9 Moz Ag and 62 koz Au over a 25-year life of mine (“LOM”).

Low All-in Sustaining Cash Costs (“AISC”)2 of $20/oz AgEq over the LOM – positioning Diablillos among the lowest-cost primary silver projects globally. 

Initial capital expenditures of $722 million (including $98 million contingency) with subsequent sustaining capital of $520 million funded through operating cash flow. 

Compelling after-tax NPV-to-Capex ratio of 4.2x, highlighting the Project’s robust project economics and strong value generation potential.

Increased Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves of 77.9 Mt grading 146 g/t Ag Eq, containing 183 Moz Ag and 1.8 Moz Au (366 Moz AgEq), estimated from an open pit optimized using metal prices of $29.50/oz Ag and $2,800/oz Au.

First production targeted before year-end 2029, subject to a final investment decision (“FID”) expected in Q2 2027.

Multiple opportunities exist to further enhance Project value beyond the DFS, including:
A Phase 2 heap leach expansion to process lower grade mineralized material that would provide incremental gold and silver production, with results from a Preliminary Economic Assessment (the “Heap Leach PEA”) expected before the end of June 2026;

Potential future plant throughput expansion to increase annual silver and gold production; and

Continued exploration success across the broader Diablillos district

Enhanced TSF incorporates a downstream waste rock buttress design, to eliminate credible failure risk while reducing haulage costs and dust generation.

Grid power connection planned in Year 3, reducing both operating costs and carbon emissions.   

The Compnay has already received approval of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)  {“Declaración de Impacto Ambiental” or “DIA”} from the Government of Salta Province in Argentina, and should have the final permit approved from the Catamarca Province imminently.

 

Click here to visit the AbraSilver website and read over the most recent news releases.

 

 

 If you have any follow up questions for John regarding at AbraSilver, then please email them into me at Shad@kereport.com.

 

In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of AbraSilver Resource Corp at the time of this recording and may choose to buy or sell more shares at any time.

 

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

 

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

In this Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, Founder and Publisher of the TF Metals Report, joins me to analyze the unusual intra-day swings in the precious metals market ever since the signing of the US/Iran MOU ending the war, and since Kevin Warsh chaired his first FED meeting and addressed the markets last week.

 

In this episode, we cover:

 

Technical Levels to Watch:

 

Craig comments on the break-down in gold and silver below the 200-day moving average, resulting in weakening pricing momentum.

This is creating the potential for gold to dip below it’s double bottom around $4,100 and silver to retest or dip below its double bottom around $61.  

Even if gold breaks below $4,000 into the mid $3,000s or if Silver breaks $61 and heads down to the $54 support level from last falls “double-top,” Craig points out that still would not invalidate the larger bull market trend of the last few years.

He points out we may need that last capitulation move this summer to wash out any remaining weak hands, and to then base and bring in the new buyers that cause shorts to cover and begin a new upleg.

We review again the very low “open interest” levels on the COT report, and how this lower level of market participation can cause unusual intra-day price swings in both directions.

 

Kevin Warsh’s First Fed Meeting and Press Conference:

 

We contrasted the outlook and approach Kevin Warsh outlined last week versus the approach to data collection and forecasting that his predecessor Jerome Powell had taken.

The markets took Warsh’s comments "this committee will deliver price stability,"  to be a hawkish hold, since he indicated focusing on the higher inflation readings.

The Fed funds futures are now anticipating 1-2 rate hikes this year versus the initially market anticipated rate cuts, coming into this year.

 

The Macroeconomic Fundamentals Haven’t Changed:

 

Sovereign debt remains at record levels and most nations can not endure interest rates that go up to drastically.

Throughout history, central banks have opted for printing more money and driving interest rates meaningfully lower, to inflate their way out of economic challenges, and to pay off higher interest debt with lower-rate debt. 

Even if we see some initial hawkish rate hikes, Craigs doesn’t anticipate that we’d have long to wait after that before monetary policy adjusts course in the opposite direction, in a more dovish playbook.

Overall, central banks continue to add gold to their balance sheets versus adding more US or foreign treasuries.

We also noted that many individuals and financial institutions have been rotating some of their bond holdings into the precious metals complex.

All that really changed over the last few months was the black swan of a war in the Middle East; and now that it appears to be winding down, we'll see if the prior pre-war trends reassert themselves over the fullness of time.

 

Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

 

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

In this weekend’s show, we take a step back from the daily price grinds to examine the massive, structural shifts occurring across the metals and energy markets. From re-valued investor psychology to geopolitical choke points, the big picture is anything but quiet. 

 

Segment 1 & 2 - Jeff Christian, managing partner at the CPM Group, kicks off the show to discuss structural changes and evolving investor psychology within the precious metals market. He highlights how robust investment demand is driving a long-term upward revaluation of assets like gold and silver, which he expects will lead to higher average prices despite short-term corrections. 

Click here to visit the CPM Group website to learn more about the firm - https://cpmgroup.com/

 

Segment 3 & 4 - Dan Steffens, President of the Energy Prospectus Group, discusses the current volatility in the energy sector, highlighting the critical decline in domestic and global oil inventories despite recent diplomatic developments. He also provides an outlook on the financial resilience of upstream companies, emphasizing the strong dividend yields and growth potential within the oil services and natural gas markets. 

Click here to visit the Energy Prospectus Group website for more energy market and stock analysis - http://www.energyprospectus.com/

 

If you enjoy the show, be sure to subscribe to our podcast feed (KER Podcast), YouTube channel, and follow us on X for more market commentary and company interviews. Don’t forget to subscribe and leave us a review!

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.