The KE Report

In this Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, Founder and Publisher of the TF Metals Report, joins me to discuss the moderating of the peak hawkishness in the markets around inflation and Fed policy expectations over the last couple weeks.  Softening expectations have provided the conditions for the precious metals to begin to bottom and build a base, while lifting sector sentiment.  We dive into the technical outlook for gold, silver, and PM equity prices, counterbalanced against the macroeconomic backdrop.

 

Key Discussion points:

 

Craig comments on pricing in gold, silver, and PM ETFs holding steady over the last week and not going down any further; and making a slight move higher.

There was legitimate chart damage done as pricing broke below the 200-day moving average, and 50-week moving averages as a ‘piling on’ effect from the peak hawkishness in the markets. 

However, if things calm down in these summer months and pricing consolidates through time, then those moving averages will coalesce and smooth out.

This could rhyme with last summer’s sideways consolidation period, where the moving averages narrowed and built the energy for the short-duration price averages to break above the longer-duration price average to kick off the next leg higher in the bull market.

He believes most of the corrective move has now happened at this point; noting that every time gold moved below $4,000 that we witnessed strong buying come in to snap it back up over that level.

Craig reiterated that even if 2026 was to end the year flat and somewhere around the $4,340 level where it opened this year, that this would be solid performance after the outsized gains in gold on a percentage basis from 2024 and 2025.

Gold producers were chopped in half, on extreme negative sentiment from the falling metals prices paired with rising energy prices ever since the war broke out in March.  

Later in July and into August we’ll start getting the actual Q2 earnings reports from the PM producers, and Craig feels that they may surprise many investors to the upside. 

The average price of the metals and margins actually were higher than many quarters from last year, and definitely a stark difference compared to Q2 of 2025, for the year-over-year comparisons.

Additionally, the actual effect of the higher oil prices on producers input costs versus the perceptions will be another key data point to follow. The fear around higher energy prices was the rationale many used to drop the valuation in producers by 40%-60%, even though the energy inputs only come in around 10%-15% of costs, and  so the concerns were way overblown by skittish investors throughout Q2.

As we receive Q3 guidance, it will come at time where oil prices are essentially right back down to where they were at before the war even began, which should bake those concerns back out of the cost estimates.

The Fed funds futures have swung to both extremes, coming into the year expecting 2 rate cuts, and flip-flopping by going to peak hawkishness and pricing in 2 rate hikes just a few weeks back, after Kevin Warsh’s first press conference post FOMC meeting.

Craig expects that as we get more data and those inflation expectations start to equilibrate, that the market will shift to more neutral Fed policy guidance moving into the Fall, which will be a boon for the precious metals sector.

All eyes will be on the CPI and PPI  numbers 2 weeks from now for more clarity on the trend in inflation. 

 

 

Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/

 

 

 

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Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

In this Daily Editorial, I chat with TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and Editor of the Profit Pilot website. The rotation trend continues from mega-cap tech leadership out into a variety of market sectors, and then some sectors that have been under selling pressure, may have found short-term support for tradable rallies. TG provides the technical signals he is watching in tech, biotech, housing, cryptos, gold, copper, critical minerals, and oil.

 

Key Discussion Points

Broad Market Expansion: Discover why the current rally is broadening out significantly beyond just mega-cap tech giants, and how the Russell 2000 (IWM) and equal-weight S&P (RSP) are showcasing underlying market strength.

Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook: TG shares his contrarian perspective on bonds, and why he is looking to buy dips in the (TLT), in anticipation of neutral rates for now and eventual dovish monetary policy. 
If rates have topped out for now, then this creates a favorable backdrop for small cap stocks, like Rice Acquisition Corp (KRSP), and consumer stocks with a traditionally higher cost of capital.

Strength in Housing Stocks: This environment of peak interest rates that may roll over lower, is also constructive for real estate & housing, where he has noted recent strength in State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF (XHB), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), and AirBnB Inc (ABNB).

Surging Biotech Stocks: Biotech stocks have been very strong recently, but may be reaching buying exhaustion soon. TG has had his subscribers long the sector since May in ETFs like ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG),  Direxion Shares Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X ETF (LABU), Tempus AI (TEM), and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA).

The Cryptos Are Seeking Support: From the shifting dynamic of crypto miners into AI power generation to a technical breakdown of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto repositories - find out if a digital asset turnaround is on the horizon. We look at the cryptos themselves like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and crypto-adjacent equities like MicroStrategy (MSTR), TeraWulf (WULF), Iris Energy (IREN), Galaxy Digital (GLXY).

Precious Metals Have Only Provided Bounces In Downtrends: An in-depth look at where Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) might find technical support, after breaking down through key moving averages the last few months.  Thus far all we’ve seen is relief rallies in broader PM downtrends.

Copper Has Been Rangebound:  When contrasted against many metals, Copper and copper stocks have been more resilient, but have been in a whipsaw trendless market over the last few weeks.  TG has sold out of copper stocks like Trekor Metals Ltd {formerly Taseko}, (TGB) and Southern Copper Corp (SCCO) until he sees more solid technical evidence of a break and trend in one direction or another.

Critical Minerals Overbought and Taking A Breather:  After outsized moves this year, the narrative adjustment in AI datacenters and media focus, has seen the critical minerals stocks roll over after getting overbought on the charts.  The VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) and lithium and energy storage leaders like Albemarle Corp ALB have been rolling over after solid runs in 2026.

Oil Was A Short A Few Weeks Back, But May See A Bounce:   TG noted the geopolitical effects on the oil price, after the MOU was signed between the US and Iran ending the hot war, but sees oil as technically oversold at this point. The technically oversold setup is similar in the State Street Energy Select Sector Index SPDR ETF (XLE), where a short-term relief rally would not be a surprise.

 

Click here to visit TG’s site – Profit Pilot – https://www.profit-pilot.com/

 

Click here to visit the Profit Pilot YouTube page – https://www.youtube.com/@Profit-Pilo

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

 

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Drew Clark, President and CEO of Summit Royalties Ltd. (TSX.V: SUM) (OTCQX: SUMMF), joins me to outline the transformational acquisition of Star Royalties Ltd. (TSXV: STRR, OTCQX: STRFF), which closed on July 3rd, 2026. The Arrangement materially expands Summit's portfolio with the addition of Star's royalty and streaming interests, including a 4% gold stream on Mining Americas Inc.'s (formerly Minera Alamos Inc.) Copperstone Project in Arizona.

 

The Copperstone gold stream provides Summit Royalties with exposure to a fully permitted Arizona gold development project where Mining Americas recently announced a positive pre-feasibility study and a formal construction decision. Based on the PFS results and current estimates, project construction is expected to take approximately one year, with initial production of 46,000 oz of gold per year anticipated by mid-2027.

 

Drew highlighted the upside potential to continue to grow the underground resources of the Copperstone Mine, considering Mining Americas having just announced a planned increase in the mill throughput from 600tpd to 1000tpd. Additionally, Mining Americas just announced there is a portion of resources outside of the PFS that exist in near-surface areas in proximity to the historic open pit excavations, and the Company believes there is potential for gold mineralization to be extracted via open pit mining methods.  This open pit was not even factored in the initial valuation process, and Drew mentioned it was now like getting a gold stream on 2 mines for the price of 1.  

 

Together with their existing portfolio, including a royalty on Jaguar Mining’s near-term producing Pitangui Project, where development is expected to commence in 2026 with first gold production targeted in 2027, this acquisition transaction of the gold stream on Copperstone strengthens the Company’s future revenue and cash flow growth.

 

 

With the closing of the Arrangement, Summit's portfolio now includes 48 royalties and streams, anchored with four producing assets, two assets expected to enter construction in 2026 which are targeted to begin production in 2027, and 42 additional royalties expected to add additional cash flow growth and optionality for years to come.  The portfolio is focused mostly on gold and silver, and spans across 3 core jurisdictions - Canada, USA, and Australia.  Summit is now the fastest growing company in the precious metals royalty sector; having completed their first royalty and stream transaction in May 2025, and just went public in the 2nd half of last year.  

 

Summit Royalties has continued to demonstrate its ability to identify and execute accretive transactions, and intends to build on that momentum with discipline, to become the next mid-tier streaming and royalty company.  Drew outlines that they are reviewing a few key term-sheets to keep making future actionable and accretive acquisitions to increase production and cash flow growth.

Improved capital markets presence and trading liquidity, with supportive shareholder base.

Pro forma Summit valued at a significant discount to peers on Price/NAV and Price/2027E cash flow per share (“CFPS”) basis.

The Corporation currently has no debt and sufficient cash on-hand for use in future acquisitions, as well as being in dialogue with financial institutions for adding a potential revolving credit facility.

 

 

If you have any follow up questions for Drew about Summit Royalties, then please email them into me at Shad@kereport.com.

 

In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of Summit Royalties at the time of this recording, and may choose to buy or sell shares at any time.

 

Click here to follow the latest news from Summit Royalties

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

 

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Leif Nilsson, CEO & Director of Surge Copper (TSX.V:SURG – OTCQB:SRGXF), joins me for a comprehensive update covering the updated Mineral Resource Estimate and Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS), at their flagship copper-molybdenum-silver-gold Berg Project in British Columbia.

 

Leif mentioned that the completion of the Berg PFS marks an important milestone for Surge and materially advances one of Canada’s most significant undeveloped copper projects. Berg now stands out not only for its scale, but also for the quality of its development profile, with long-life production of copper as a primary metal, and industry leading molybdenum and silver output, strong infrastructure advantages, and access to low-carbon hydroelectric power. Just as importantly, this study reflects a great deal of technical work completed since the PEA and provides a more defined foundation for the next stage of advancement, including continued work with First Nations, formal entry into the environmental assessment process, and future feasibility-level studies.

 

Key highlights from PFS:

 

 Base case after-tax NPV8% of C$4.6 billion, IRR of 24%, and payback period of 2.9 years, based on long-term commodity price assumptions of US$4.75/lb copper, US$20.00/lb molybdenum, US$45/oz silver, and US$3,500/oz gold and an exchange rate of 0.73 US$/C$

At spot prices as of June 2026 (US$6.45/lb copper, US$30.00/lb molybdenum, US$65/oz silver, and US$4,250/oz gold and an exchange rate of 0.73 US$/C$), a spot price sensitivity case generates an after-tax NPV8% of C$9.4 billion, an IRR of 36%, and a payback period of 1.8 years, underscoring the Project’s leverage to higher metal prices

Maiden Proven & Probable Mineral Reserve of 1.2 billion tonnes grading 0.22% copper, 0.026% molybdenum, 4.1 g/t silver, and 0.02 g/t gold, containing 5.8 billion pounds of copper, 687 million pounds of molybdenum, 160 million ounces of silver, and 0.8 million ounces of gold

Updated Mineral Resource Estimate includes Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources of 1.4 billion tonnes grading 0.21% copper, 0.025% molybdenum, 4.0 g/t silver, and 0.02 g/t gold, plus additional Inferred Mineral Resources of 1.0 billion tonnes grading 0.16% copper, 0.027% molybdenum, 4.3 g/t silver, and 0.01 g/t gold

28-year mine life with total production of 8.6 billion pounds (3.9 million tonnes) of copper equivalent (CuEq)1, including 4.9 billion pounds (2.2 million tonnes) of copper, 602 million pounds of molybdenum, and 89 million ounces of silver

First 5 years of steady-state production averages 416 million pounds (189 thousand tonnes) of copper equivalent annually, including 270 million pounds (122 thousand tonnes) of copper, 21 million pounds of molybdenum, and 4 million ounces of silver

Life of mine average annual production of 308 million pounds (140 thousand tonnes) of copper equivalent, including 176 million pounds (80 thousand tonnes) of copper, 21 million pounds of molybdenum, and 3 million ounces of silver

Life of mine C1 co-product cash costs of US$1.95/lb payable CuEq and by-product cash costs of US$(0.17)/lb payable Cu

Low life of mine strip ratio of 2.0:1, including waste pre-stripping requirements of 304 million tonnes

Initial capital cost of C$4.7 billion and sustaining capital of C$1.7 billion, based on an EPCM execution approach and a three-year construction period, and including a total life of mine contingency of C$715 million, implying initial capital intensity of US$24,416/t CuEq annual average production capacity, and life of mine capital intensity of US$0.55/lb recovered CuEq

Selected development case based on a 120,000 tonne per day concentrator and a new 230 kV transmission line connecting the Project to the BC Hydro grid, and downhill overland conveyor transport of ore to the process plant

Simple, stand-alone development case based on a single-phase build, conventional open pit mining and processing, with no reliance on phased expansions or third-party major infrastructure

 

 

If you have any follow-up questions for Leif regarding Surge Copper, then please email them to me at Shad@kereport.com.

 

In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of Surge Copper at the time of this recording, and may choose to buy or sell shares at any time.

 

Click here to follow the latest news from Surge Copper

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

 

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

In this weekend show, we replay the most popular Daily Editorials from the week. We feature Mike Larson and Robert Sinn both analyzing a volatile first half of 2026. The key theme uniting both interviews is the concept of a "market halftime", evaluating the massive rotations out of mega-cap tech, identifying potential bottoms in precious metals and crypto, and capitalizing on the global macro shifts driving energy and critical minerals. 

 

Segment 1 & 2 - Mike Larson, the editor-in-chief at The Money Show, kicks off the show to break down the shifts within the financial markets at the midpoint of the year. Larson provides a detailed review of the stark contrast between the first and second halves of the year, highlighting the massive rotation out of red-hot technology and AI sectors into underperforming areas like healthcare, while also noting that critical minerals are presently eclipsing precious metals as a focal point for generalist investors due to global supply chain and national security policies.

Click here to find out about the upcoming MoneyShow conferences - https://www.moneyshow.com/

 

Segment 3 & 4 - Robert Sinn, also known as "Goldfinger" on CEO.ca and "CEO Technician" on X, who is the publisher of Goldfinger Capital on YouTube and Substack. In the segment, Sinn shares his technical and fundamental analysis of the precious metals sector, highlighting a strong Q3 rebound for gold and silver, while discussing the potential for mining stocks to outperform later in the summer despite recent market drawdowns. 

Follow Robert’s analysis on Substack

 

If you enjoy the show, be sure to subscribe to our podcast feed (KER Podcast), YouTube channel, and follow us on X for more market commentary and company interviews. Don’t forget to subscribe and leave us a review!

 

For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:

The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/

Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/

 

Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.