Notes From The Executive

ASB's Chief Economist Nick Tuffley delivers the warning most NZ business owners do not want to hear: rate cuts are over and the Reserve Bank is likely to raise rates as soon as September. He calls this a 9 out of 10 shock, worse than the GFC. If your mortgage is coming up for refix, this is the episode you need before you sign anything.

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ASB Economic Research 
https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-research.html

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0:00 – How big is this shock? Comparing crises (Asian crisis, GFC, Covid, war)0:45 – Who is Nick Tuffley? Chief economist introduction1:17 – Why watch this episode? What you’ll learn2:01 – The listener in mind: stressed NZ business owner with a mortgage2:40 – “Less optimistic”: how the 2026 outlook has changed3:25 – What is the current global energy shock?4:38 – Rating past shocks vs this one: why this is a “9 out of 10”6:09 – 20% of global oil and gas offline: what that means in practice8:38 – How NZ households and businesses are already feeling it10:00 – Fuel costs, freight, shipping and export disruption11:14 – Covid vs this crisis: why this time is harder to fix with policy14:20 – Inflation risk and memories of 2022–2415:34 – If the war ended today: how long until fuel prices ease?17:18 – $3.50+ for petrol, $3.90+ for diesel: price impacts explained18:02 – Our deep dependence on oil and why it’s so hard to replace19:10 – Ad break: disruptive technologies, AI, Sora and blockchain21:45 – “We’re fragile”: NZ’s starting point and why RBNZ may hike22:32 – Why raise interest rates? Plain‑English explanation24:23 – Fuel vs interest rates: what’s really driving prices up?25:42 – CPI basket explained: how inflation is actually measured26:50 – Wage–price spiral: why the Reserve Bank is worried29:09 – Forecasting interest rates: why nobody really knows30:00 – Scenario planning for businesses, not date‑picking30:29 – Which sectors are hit hardest: transport, logistics, agri, manufacturing32:40 – Mortgages in uncertain times: generic guidance and trade‑offs36:08 – Fixing vs floating: risk tolerance and peace of mind38:38 – “Feels like a lottery”: framing mortgage decisions as risk management39:54 – Matching loan terms to life plans and rental leases40:52 – How banks test your servicing at higher “stress” rates43:18 – Nick’s forecasting track record and awards45:24 – Growth forecasts: from 2.5–3% down to ~1–1.5%47:29 – Quarterly outlook for 2026 and why data lags so much49:47 – Two scenarios: war improves vs gets worse50:00 – If the shock drags on: oil, gas, fertilizer and farming impacts51:49 – Who goes without? Developing world, Asia and energy scarcity55:00 – Can other countries replace Middle Eastern oil? Limits and lags56:27 – Risks of social unrest and priority fuel use57:59 – How fragile the world feels: a few governments, global consequences59:25 – From post‑WWII stability to geopolitical instability1:00:00 – Political shocks vs economic/health shocks: a new risk era1:01:08 – Globalization, free trade and why NZ can’t easily “go it alone”1:02:36 – Final thoughts: scenario planning and focusing on what you can control1:04:24 – Don’t get lost in the headlines: understand your real business risks1:05:10 – Where to find Nick’s work and closing thanks

Shamubeel Eaqub is one of New Zealand's most respected economists and Chief Economist at Simplicity. With over 20 years of experience analysing New Zealand's economy, Shamubeel has advised governments, businesses, and organisations on economic policy, housing, and long-term prosperity.
He is a regular media commentator and author who has shaped conversations around New Zealand's economic future.

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What I asked Shamubeel
◆ Why the war on Iran has thrown a spanner in New Zealand's recovery just as businesses were about to see growth and what this means for your cash flow and hiring decisions in the next six months
◆ The real reason New Zealand turned over 1 million workers last year and why your staff retention problem is not just about the economy
◆ Why the average Kiwi family in Australia earns 30 to 40 percent more than in New Zealand for doing the same work and whether that gap is getting better or worse
◆ What businesses that invest in marketing and advertising during downturns get when the recovery finally arrives and why cutting your marketing budget right now is shooting yourself in the foot

James Whittaker is the British-born founder and CEO of Resonate Health, New Zealand's world-first hearing aid subscription company. A former British Airways executive, he spent over a decade running audiology businesses across New Zealand, Japan and Australia before launching Resonate in November 2022. In under three years he has grown the company to 31 studios nationwide, backed by private equity group Tahua Partners, and built what is widely regarded as the fastest-growing audiology business per capita in the world.► Why James says competitors physically cannot copy his model without destroying their own businesses ► How he launched with zero brand recognition and was "absolutely flying" by studio number three in Tauranga ► The one question he asked every new subscriber that had nothing to do with sales ("how many conversations did you have about Resonate today?") Thanks Episode PartnersNZBusiness Magazinewww.nzbusiness.co.nzAcademyExhttps://discover.academyex.com/minaTime Stamps 0:00 - how do I build a business that cannot fail5:36 - how do I position a subscription business7:39 - why can't big companies copy a disruptive model10:34 - how do I raise funding for my business in New Zealand13:29 - what do investors actually look for in a founder16:34 - what happens when your funding round fails20:47 - how do entrepreneurs predict the future26:52 - how do I make my business impossible to compete with32:26 - how do I use AI to stop customers leaving38:01 - how do I build team culture across multiple locations43:35 - how do I know if my business is performing well51:52 - how do I protect my business during an economic crisis53:44 - how do I recover from a costly business mistake56:21 - how do I get funding when I feel stuck59:48 - how to contact James Whittaker Resonate Health New ZealandFollow JamesResonate Health: www.resonatehealth.co.nzFollow MeMina on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@NotesFromTheExecutivePodcastMina on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4QgZGJdrnfjZ1sEm6MeGcp?si=c12e08e33f604916Mina on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/notes-from-the-executive-podcast/id1586953812Mina on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/minaamso/Mina on Linkedin www.linkedin.com/in/minaamso

Kate Ricketts is the CEO and founder of ISpyNits, creator of the world's first biofluorescent glow-in-the-dark lice detection and treatment system.
Her product is now stocked in pharmacy chains across New Zealand and Australia and is currently being piloted across more than 750 lice clinics in the United States.

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What I asked Kate:
◽️ Why 1 in 3 New Zealand children have head lice at any one time,and why the treatment category has failed to solve reinfection for decades
◽️ How she validated the idea before she knew what market validation was
◽️ Why she almost didn't enter the University of Auckland Ideas Challenge
◽️ How she deals with the cash flow trap that kills product businesses
◽️ How she entered the United States market for $2,000 New Zealand dollars:
◽️ What's her single mum founder mindset
◽️ Why marketing a need product

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Perrin Rowland is the Chief Product and Experience Officer at AcademyEx, New Zealand's leading disruptive technology education institution, and is widely regarded as one of the pioneers of customer experience in New Zealand.

What Perrin reveals 
◽️ Why New Zealand is falling dangerously behind the rest of the world on AI
◽️ The three forces converging right now that make this moment unlike any previous technology shift
◽️ What Microsoft's chief of AI is saying publicly about white collar work

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00:00 – The AI tsunami & why New Zealand is behind
01:10 – “Why should anyone watch this episode?”
02:26 – Trust, regulation & NZ’s AI hesitancy
03:40 – 3 forces converging to supercharge AI (compute, energy, infrastructure)
06:52 – Claude can “use your computer for you”
07:14 – How New Zealand is (mis)using AI today
08:07 – Who will be most impacted? White‑collar roles at risk
10:02 – What kinds of jobs/tasks are vulnerable?
10:59 – Health NZ, ChatGPT bans & the Heidi Health breach story
12:34 – Massive upside: curing a dog’s cancer with AI
13:03 – Feeling freaked out but needing “AI agency”
14:17 – Analogy: a 6‑year‑old refusing school vs adults refusing AI
15:03 – Perrin’s background: CX, finance, and Academy X
16:46 – Sponsor break: NZ Business magazine
17:55 – Education at every age & school trauma
18:15 – The real magnitude of the AI shift
20:47 – Not trusting the internet, deepfakes & revenge porn
22:58 – Regulate AI or fall behind? The innovation vs safety dilemma
24:56 – Risk takers, early adopters & letting AI into your computer
27:31 – You can “choose not to use AI”… but it’s already everywhere
28:06 – Imagining robot helpers at home
28:53 – “How do I learn without getting overwhelmed?”
31:32 – Why structured education beats random YouTube rabbit holes
33:22 – This isn’t slowing down; you need “floaties” for the AI wave
36:51 – Why up‑to‑date, curated AI learning is critical
40:21 – The value of a trusted guide & learning community
41:34 – Early “silly” AI use cases that became real (IoT, wearables)
43:53 – Role reversal: Perrin interviews Mina
44:47 – Mina’s fear: content creation & being replaced
47:25 – Writing with AI as “therapy” & rediscovering voice
48:59 – What Mina really wants: confidence, clarity & trust
51:39 – Imagination: using other people’s brains to expand your own
52:00 – Trust in tech through credible educators
53:22 – Why Mina is picky about courses (and time)
54:25 – The challenge: Mina enrolls in the Disruptive Tech course
57:44 – How the course runs & what it covers
1:01:39 – Real example: Perrin + Claude do SEO & AEO in hours
1:03:36 – Mina’s excitement (and nerves) about the challenge
1:04:37 – Call‑to‑action for listeners: comments & questions
1:05:03 – Where to find the Disruptive Technologies course
1:05:51 – “Come do it with me” – Mina invites listeners to join
1:06:05 – Final message: “Just keep learning”