Overnight Success

They seemed to arrive overnight: Chinese bike brands turning up in the WorldTour peloton, in your local shop, and all over your feed. But almost no one inside the industry thinks it was sudden at all. Most of the bikes we ride have been built in Asia for decades, so perhaps it was only a matter of time before those factories started putting their own names on the down tube.
This episode digs into why these brands are expanding now, and the competition this poses for many Western brands who are already struggling. We cover China's national strategy behind the rise, the role COVID played as an accelerator, government subsidies, the domestic price war, and aspects of vertical integration.

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In episode one of this series — 'False Dawn' — we looked at the mistaken optimism the bike industry faced when the world opened up after the pandemic.
The more you dig into this story, the clearer it becomes that the boom and bust was only the surface. Underneath it, something more fundamental had already changed.
In this episode — which we're calling 'The Ground Shifted' — we hear from people who work at various levels of the supply chain about how the customer has changed, how the selling landscape has been redrawn, how private equity saw opportunity and moved in, and all the unexpected forces that have held back recovery — layered on top of structural problems that were already there long before COVID ever arrived.
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In our last Industry Special series, we asked how the bike industry got itself into such deep trouble. What we found was a supply chain riddled with problems, a leadership culture built on false optimism, and an industry that mistook a pandemic bump for a permanent new normal. They called it the bike gold rush. Sadly it came to an abrupt end. 
Since that time, businesses have gone bankrupt. Shops have closed. Thousands of employees have been laid off. 
So the question has changed. We know how the industry got into trouble. Now we're asking something harder: why can't it get out?
Over the past few months, my colleague Suvi Loponen and I have spoken to leaders and employees across the industry to find out if this is something far more systemic than COVID ever was.

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In January 2025, I sat down with Rapha's newly appointed CEO, Fran Millar, after she'd been in the job for about three months. Founder and previous CEO Simon Mottram stepped away from the business in 2021 and hired William Kim as his successor. Kim was brought in as an outsider with impressive experience in luxury fashion and retail – Burberry, Gucci, Abercrombie & Fitch. Unfortunately he lasted less than a year, and after Kim stepped away in 2022, Rapha internally promoted François Convercey and Daniel Blumire as co-CEOs. Blumire left the business shortly after, and the sole leadership position was left to Convercey until Fran Millar was appointed in August 2024.
In that period of multiple leadership changes, Rapha faced increased competition, a pandemic, and what many would say was a loss of focus while trying to expand and appeal to a larger market – all while being newly owned by the Walton Brothers' investment fund RZC.
It's been roughly a year and a half since I first spoke with Fran about her vision for Rapha's future. In this interview, we check in on what she's been able to do, what's been more challenging than she anticipated, and where her focus lays now.

In this episode we take a deep dive into Rose Bikes - a 120 year old bicycle brand that many of you may not have heard of, and that's about to change. Rose Bikes is a German  company that sells direct to consumer, similar to Canyon. Founded in 1907 as a small family workshop, it evolved into one of Europe’s early adopters of the D2C model. 

Thank you to my colleague Suvi Loponen for doing this interview. You'll be hearing more from Suvi on this channel much more in the future, so stay tuned! 

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