Stock Club

https://joinstockclub.com Join over 100,000 investors who get our free weekly Stock Club newsletter every Friday, plus two free reports: Last week was one of those weeks where a decade happens. The Nasdaq had its worst day since 2020 after the midterm elections, with trillions in value wiped off global stocks in hours, then bounced hard the next day. Emmet starts by untangling the jargon (dip, correction, bear market, crash, melt up) and asks which label actually fits what happened. Mike then walks through what midterms have historically meant for the S&P 500, why a divided government tends to be good for markets, and why this time the story is different: data center bans and moratoria passed in dozens of jurisdictions, which hit a market heavily concentrated in the AI trade.They debate whether this is a bubble or just a pause. Chip stocks like Micron and Nvidia are growing earnings so fast that they trade at lower multiples than before the rally, but the risk is what new regulation does to the huge data center build-out. They also react to the report that Anthropic's IPO is being scaled back toward $1 trillion, and why quality stocks may be the quiet winners if investors rotate out of AI.Then the story of the week: Nvidia has opened an independent investigation into a relationship involving CEO Jensen Huang, amid reporting about a business associate and export controls on advanced chips to China. Nvidia fell about 5% on Monday, over $200 billion. The hosts break down what it could mean for a company that is roughly 6% or more of the S&P 500, for export controls, and for the neoclouds that depend on Nvidia's investment.
#MyWallSt #StockClub #Nvidia #NVDA #Nasdaq #StockMarket #Midterms #AI #InvestingCompanies & Topics DiscussedNvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV)Anthropic (pending IPO)0:00 Intro0:23 Dip, Correction, Crash, Melt Up: Market Jargon Explained3:52 Recession vs. Expansion4:35 The Nasdaq's Worst Day Since the Pandemic5:22 Friday's Bounce and Four Losing Weeks6:22 Zooming Out: A Generational Bull Run7:44 What Midterm Elections Mean for Stocks9:38 Why Divided Government Helps Markets10:48 Thursday's Selloff and the AI Concentration Problem11:05 The Data Center Vote That Spooked Investors12:53 A Storm in a Teacup?13:48 Bubble or Not? Chip Stocks Cheaper on Earnings15:17 Bottlenecks and Regulation Risk16:22 Anthropic's IPO Scaled Back17:00 Quality Stocks and the Shift Away From AI18:55 Avoiding the Obvious AI Answer for 202719:58 The Nvidia CEO Story22:50 Nvidia Opens an Independent Investigation Into Its CEO24:37 What Happens If Nvidia Loses Its CEO?25:20 Export Controls and Chips to China27:42 Nvidia Falls 5%, Over $200 Billion30:25 Ripple Effects on the AI Industry31:28 National Security and Export Control Risk32:48 Tougher Export Controls Ahead33:28 What It Means for Nvidia-Backed Neoclouds37:05 Wrap-UpAt MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork. Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.

(Details of the Nvidia story are as reported by the hosts and cited outlets and may have developed since recording.)

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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a roughly $5 trillion company that almost everyone uses and hardly anyone on Stock Club has pitched, so Mike and Emmet flipped a coin and went head to head. Mike makes the bull case: a toll booth that runs in both directions across about 2 billion devices, switching costs that start in the teenage group chat, around $150 billion in operating profit at 33% margins, a share count down about 30% since 2017, and a bet that AI models will become commodities Apple can simply rent while the hyperscalers burn through cash.
Emmet takes the bear side. The biggest company in the world is rarely the best investment, and only one of the ten most valuable US companies of 2006 is still in the top ten today. He points to a first-time CEO taking over a $5 trillion company, an AI roadmap that is visibly behind, a holiday quarter with no standard iPhone 18 and a $2,000 foldable that sold out in minutes but is barely being made, and a valuation near 38 times earnings that leaves little room for error.
They finish with the test that settles it: if you had $10,000 to invest for ten years with no tinkering, how much would you put in Apple?

Stocks Mentioned
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG)

#MyWallSt #StockClub #Apple #AAPL #BullVsBear #StockAnalysis #TechStocks #Investing

CHAPTERS0:00 Intro & Newsletter Plug1:12 This Week: Apple, Bull vs Bear2:26 The Rules: Coin Flip & the $10,000 Test5:19 The Bull Case: Apple's Two-Way Toll Booth6:51 Branding, Green Bubbles & Network Effects8:26 Switching Costs & the Walled Garden12:21 The App Store Cut & Apple Pay13:48 Why Apple Users Spend More16:21 Google's $20 Billion Default Search Deal17:32 $150B in Operating Profit & 30% Fewer Shares19:03 Apple vs. the AI Spending Race21:07 Outperforming the Magnificent Seven23:33 Tim Cook's Financial Vision25:32 The Bear Case: Biggest Isn't Best25:53 Only One of 2006's Top Ten Is Still There28:30 A First-Time CEO at a $5 Trillion Company30:55 Apple's Rough Start in AI34:04 Split Authority at the Top35:26 No New iPhone for Christmas38:50 The $2,000 iPhone Duo Sells Out40:08 Foldable: Experiment or Growth Leg?42:18 A 38x Earnings Valuation44:24 The Next Device Threat46:58 A Slow Drift, Not a Collapse49:04 How Much of $10,000 Would You Put in Apple?52:01 Wrap-Up

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Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed for its IPO on October 26th, reportedly targeting a mid-November listing that could raise up to $100 billion, potentially the biggest stock market debut ever. Emmet and Mike spend the episode inside the S-1 itself, the 300-plus-page document Anthropic has to file before going public, separating the real numbers from the headline-grabbing ones.The much-repeated "$81 billion in losses" figure, for example, is mostly a non-cash accounting charge tied to convertible notes. On an operating basis, Anthropic actually lost around $700 million in the first half of 2026, down from $2.1 billion the year before, and generated $3.9 billion in operating cash flow. They dig into the founders' decision to keep 51% voting control, their pledge to give away 80% of their personal equity, net dollar retention that hit 900% among existing customers, and the eye-opening customer growth numbers buried deep in the filing. They also get into the parts of the S-1 that read less like a standard risk disclosure and more like a warning label, including disclosed AI behavior resembling blackmail and self-preservation, and close with the real question: would you actually put money into this IPO, and does a $1.5 to $2 trillion valuation for an 18-month-old product make any sense at all?
Companies & Topics Discussed:
Anthropic (pending IPO; reportedly listing on Nasdaq)
OpenAIAmazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX)
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META)
SpaceX
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW)

CHAPTERS0:00 Intro & Stock Club Newsletter Plug1:13 This Week: Anthropic Files for IPO2:00 A $235 Billion Day for AI4:29 Why Private Markets Can't Keep Up With AI's Capital Needs5:37 Reading the S-1: Revenue Up 14-Fold to $16 Billion6:50 The $81 Billion Loss Headline, Debunked9:16 Why the Founders Kept 51% Voting Control10:38 The Founders' Pledge to Give Away 80% of Their Equity12:47 "We Will Halt Deployments If Safety Thresholds Are Breached"15:20 Claude Is Already Writing 90% of Its Own Code17:16 The Y2K Comparison, and Why This Risk Has No Red Line20:36 Net Dollar Retention Hit 900%22:24 The Jaw-Dropping Customer Numbers on Page 10525:30 Could AI Actually Help Cure Cancer?27:51 Compute Costs Are Falling as a Share of Revenue30:43 $600 Billion in Compute Commitments Through 203134:10 Why Two Companies Failing Could Take Down the Whole Market35:46 The Blackmail and Self-Preservation Behavior in the Filing41:12 Valuation Reportedly Fell From $2T to $1.5T in a Week42:54 Would You Put $10,000 Into the IPO?45:27 Comparing Anthropic's Valuation to Amazon and Eli Lilly49:16 Claude vs. ChatGPT: Would They Invest in Themselves?
At MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork.
Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.#MyWallSt #StockClub #Anthropic #Claude #AI #IPO
#StockMarket #Investing

Ireland’s budget brings three big changes for investors: capital gains tax falling from 33% to 31%, exit tax on funds dropping from 38% to 35%, and a brand new Irish investment account opening on July 1, 2027. Emmet sits down with Paul Overy, founder of Ask About Wealth and author of The Tricks of the Rich, to work out what it all means for your money.Paul ran the numbers on investing €12,000 a year for eight years at a 7% return. Under deemed disposal, the tax bill came to just over €11,000. Investing directly under CGT, just over €10,000. In the new account, just over €2,000 (before fees, which haven’t been announced yet). They also cover why Paul doesn’t think tax is the real barrier to investing in Ireland, the capital acquisition tax threshold gap, why an 8% rental yield can shrink to under 1%, and the 80/20 rule for turning a high income into lasting wealth.This episode is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.Chapters00:00 Meet Paul Overy of Ask About Wealth01:23 Ireland’s budget: 3 big changes for investors02:52 Is tax really the barrier to investing?04:13 €12K a year for 8 years: deemed disposal vs CGT vs new account05:38 The fees caveat07:23 Will the banks, Revolut and Trading 212 keep it simple?08:43 Why tax breaks raise all boats10:31 Fear, knowledge and market crashes14:17 Will 31% CGT keep wealthy people in Ireland?15:37 When CGT was halved, receipts tripled17:22 Who will actually use the new account17:45 Is the 1% annual charge a wealth tax?19:37 The real barrier: impartial advice22:39 Who the new account suits best26:12 Capital acquisition tax: the €760K threshold gap28:18 Gifting money while you’re alive30:00 Why Irish people love property32:52 The 8% rental yield that was really 0.7%34:49 Inside Ask About Wealth35:46 Do you know what your pension costs?39:44 Turning income into wealth: the 80/20 rule42:55 The tricks of the rich45:41 Rory McIlroy and doing the workAt MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork. Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.#MyWallSt #StockClub #IrishInvesting #DeemedDisposal #CapitalGainsTax #PersonalFinanceIreland #IrelandBudget

Emmet and Mike step back from individual stock picks this week to dig into something that's been quietly rattling markets: the circular nature of AI industry financing. OpenAI recently walked back its own annualized revenue figure from roughly $68 billion to $50 billion after admitting the larger number included gross revenue that gets immediately redistributed to partners, and the news knocked AI-adjacent stocks across the board.They break down the web of commitments connecting Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon, where the same dollars seem to flow from investor to AI lab to cloud provider to chipmaker and back again. Citing a Financial Times analysis of the sector, they discuss findings that around 176 deals worth a combined $3.6 trillion exist between roughly 200 entities, with the majority flagged as highly circular. They also cover the scale of hyperscaler debt issuance, OpenAI's delayed IPO timeline, and why market breadth has narrowed so sharply around a handful of AI-exposed names.The episode closes with the regular Following Prophet segment, where Emmet reviews the model portfolio's track record through its third consecutive negative rebalance.Companies & Topics DiscussedOpenAINvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)AnthropicCHAPTERS0:00 Intro: The $10 Bill Analogy for AI's Circular Economy0:59 Welcome & Catching Up3:10 Why This Episode, Why Now4:24 OpenAI's Revenue Walkback: $68B to $50B7:28 OpenAI's IPO Delay & Fundraising Pressure9:44 The FT's "Joining the Dots of Big AI" & the $3.6 Trillion Web11:19 How the Nvidia-OpenAI-Oracle-Microsoft Loop Works14:25 Market Breadth: 40% of the S&P 500 in 10 Names16:02 Hyperscalers Taking on Debt20:47 OpenAI's Gross Margins & Projected Cash Burn23:22 The Amazon Comparison: Building a Moat Through Losses28:11 Will Humanity Keep Pace With AI?32:21 China's Open-Weight Model Approach37:09 Wrapping Up: What We Actually Know37:48 Following Prophet: Three Losing Rebalances in a Row43:18 OutroAt MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork. Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.#MyWallSt #StockClub #AI #AIBubble #OpenAI #Nvidia #StockMarket #Investing #TechStocks