The Contrarian Capitalist Podcast

Welcome to a belated Mid-Week Macro for Wednesday 16th September 2026, sponsored by Adam Fayed.
Join expat and high-net-worth wealth manager Adam Fayed, and the The Contrarian Capitalist, for an insightful webinar exploring how thoughtful retirement planning can help you enjoy a higher standard of living than you may have expected. Learn practical strategies for maximizing your retirement income, spending with confidence, and making your wealth last throughout retirement. You will receive a free recording if you register and can’t attend!
Tuesday 29th September 08:00 EST, 13:00 UK
Can’t attend live? No problem, register and we’ll send you the full recording for free.
Mid-week Polymarket market
Given frostier relations between the U.S. & Canada, it is not a surprise to see the odds of a tariff increase by the end of October.
GoldCore is an international precious metals specialist, offering secure access to physical gold and silver through one of the world’s most robust vaulting and logistics networks.
NB - This is an affiliate link and if you chose to store your metals with GoldCore then you will also be helping The Contrarian Capitalist. I do have holdings with GoldCore and can hand on heart say that they do a very good job.
Adam Fayed and his team help clients worldwide with retirement planning, investments, property, tax strategies, trusts, insurance and Plan B.
Book your free no-obligation 1-hour consultation today using the button below and gain clarity on your financial strategy. Please mention The Contrarian Capitalist when you book!
NB - This is not an affiliate link
Paid subscribers receive high conviction commodity research, weekly macro and commodity wraps with clear traffic light signals, and early access to podcasts and bonus insights.
The goal is simple: help you protect capital, understand the real forces driving markets, and identify asymmetric opportunities before they become mainstream.
Starting at just $9.17 per month (less than a couple of coffees), it’s cracking value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom and outsmart the system.
Podcasts & Posts & Article Links
EU chief backs plan for Canada to become ‘associate member’
Piddington in Oxfordshire votes to leave UK over asylum plans
Call to raising tax thresholds among union demands to Chancellor
UK inflation pushed up by petrol and diesel price rises
Andy Burnham and his chancellor have a battle on their hands
DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this post/podcast/video should be construed as financial or investment advice. All content is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit contrariancapitalist.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Chart of the Month for September 2026 with The Contrarian Capitalist and Tom Bradshaw.
4 small bits of housekeeping
* This video was recorded on Tuesday 15th September 2026 PM UK Time.
* None of this is to be constituted as investment or trading advice. We are NOT financial advisors.
* Please continue to provide feedback.
* Please subscribe to The Contrarian Capitalist and Tom Bradshaw using the buttons below.
How Overvalued is Gold?
Bullet Pointed Transcript via AI (for those that don’t have time to watch the full video)
* Tom Bradshaw bought gold (via ETFs) in late 2021 near $1,800 when it was strongly undervalued (~107%), then sold at $4,600 in 2026 after momentum turned negative, for a 156% gain (~22% annualized over 4.75 years).
* He only sold paper gold/ETFs, not physical holdings.
* His model combines a long-term valuation “rainbow chart” (back to 1970) with momentum signals from multiple moving averages (mainly 6–15 months).
* Gold peaked near $5,600 in January 2026 at 71% overvalued; as of 15 September 2026 it is around $4,000 and still ~40% overvalued.
* Fair value on the model is currently about $3,000.
* The same model correctly flagged major historical lows (1970, 1976, 2000, 2009, 2015) as undervalued and major peaks (1974, 1980, 2007, 2011, 2026) as overvalued.
* Multiple independent signals (historical 45–50% declines from similar overvaluation, long-term trend line, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and a potential head-and-shoulders top) point to a downside target near $2,800.
* He expects a relatively short 1–2 year correction (similar to 1974–76), not a multi-year bear market, followed by another strong rally that could reach $9,000.
* Proceeds were moved into short-term U.S. 3-month Treasury bills yielding ~4% while waiting for better valuations across assets (S&P ~172% overvalued, etc.).
* The analysis is shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit contrariancapitalist.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to a belated Mid-Week Macro for Thursday 10th September 2026, sponsored by Adam Fayed.
Join expat and high-net-worth wealth manager Adam Fayed, and the The Contrarian Capitalist, for an insightful webinar exploring how thoughtful retirement planning can help you enjoy a higher standard of living than you may have expected. Learn practical strategies for maximizing your retirement income, spending with confidence, and making your wealth last throughout retirement. You will receive a free recording if you register and can’t attend!
Tuesday 29th September 08:00 EST, 13:00 UK
Can’t attend live? No problem, register and we’ll send you the full recording for free.
Meeting Registration - Zoom
Mid-week Polymarket market
Given the PPI figures (and quite possibly the CPI figures tomorrow) it is no surprise to see that the odds of a rate hike have increased.
GoldCore is an international precious metals specialist, offering secure access to physical gold and silver through one of the world’s most robust vaulting and logistics networks.
NB - This is an affiliate link and if you chose to store your metals with GoldCore then you will also be helping The Contrarian Capitalist. I do have holdings with GoldCore and can hand on heart say that they do a very good job.
Adam Fayed and his team help clients worldwide with retirement planning, investments, property, tax strategies, trusts, insurance and Plan B.
Book your free no-obligation 1-hour consultation today using the button below and gain clarity on your financial strategy. Please mention The Contrarian Capitalist when you book!
NB - This is not an affiliate link
Paid subscribers receive high conviction commodity research, weekly macro and commodity wraps with clear traffic light signals, and early access to podcasts and bonus insights.
The goal is simple: help you protect capital, understand the real forces driving markets, and identify asymmetric opportunities before they become mainstream.
Starting at just $9.17 per month (less than a couple of coffees), it’s cracking value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom and outsmart the system.
Podcasts & Posts & Article Links
AfD’s Historic Win Shocks German Political Establishment: Here’s What Happens Next
After AfD Victory In Saxony-Anhalt, Merz And Weidel Trade Blows During Intense Debate In Bundestag
Europe’s Auto Bloodbath Deepens: Jaguar Land Rover To Axe 4,000 Jobs After VW Targets 50,000 More Job Cuts
Rate-Hike Odds Spike As Fuel Costs Push US Producer Prices Higher
Trump Floats $5,000 “Stimmy” Checks For Every US Adult Citizen If GOP Holds Congress
EUR Drops As ECB Hikes Rates (As Expected); Raises Inflation Outlook, Sees Downside Growth Risks
DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this post/podcast/video should be construed as financial or investment advice. All content is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit contrariancapitalist.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Mid-Week Macro for Wednesday 2nd September 2026, sponsored by Adam Fayed.
Special Offer
Annual Subscription → Normally $110 → Now Just $55!
Lock in lifetime access to conviction-driven research, weekly commodity and market wraps, and high-conviction investment insights at 50% off.
This 50% discount applies to all annual subscriptions taken before Tuesday 8th September 2026, and once subscribed, your rate remains fixed for as long as you wish to remain a Contrarian Capitalist!
Webinar
Join expat and high-net-worth wealth manager Adam Fayed, and the The Contrarian Capitalist, for an insightful webinar exploring how thoughtful retirement planning can help you enjoy a higher standard of living than you may have expected. Learn practical strategies for maximizing your retirement income, spending with confidence, and making your wealth last throughout retirement. You will receive a free recording if you register and can’t attend!
Tuesday 29th September 08:00 EST, 13:00 UK
Can’t attend live? No problem, register and we’ll send you the full recording for free.
Mid-week Polymarket market
GoldCore is an international precious metals specialist, offering secure access to physical gold and silver through one of the world’s most robust vaulting and logistics networks.
NB - This is an affiliate link and if you chose to store your metals with GoldCore then you will also be helping The Contrarian Capitalist. I do have holdings with GoldCore and can hand on heart say that they do a very good job.
Adam Fayed and his team help clients worldwide with retirement planning, investments, property, tax strategies, trusts, insurance and Plan B.
Book your free no-obligation 1-hour consultation today using the button below and gain clarity on your financial strategy. Please mention The Contrarian Capitalist when you book!
NB - This is not an affiliate link
Podcasts & Posts & Article Links
I mention #10 by Solstice Laboratory in the video, which looks at primarily at Oil and Geopolitics. You can read that article by using the link below.
And Diesel Crack Spreads
DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this post/podcast/video should be construed as financial or investment advice. All content is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit contrariancapitalist.substack.com/subscribe

Contrarian Capitalist Special Offer
Annual Subscription → Normally $110 → Now Just $55!
Lock in lifetime access to conviction-driven research, weekly commodity and market wraps, and high-conviction investment insights at 50% off.
This 50% discount applies to all annual subscriptions taken before Tuesday 8th September 2026, and once subscribed, your rate remains fixed for as long as you wish to remain a Contrarian Capitalist!
50% OFF FOREVER
5 small bits of housekeeping
This video was recorded on Monday 31st August 2026 PM UK time
The chart deck was also inserted on Monday 31st August 2026 PM UK time
Please do continue to provide feedback
NB - None of this is to be constituted as investment or trading advice. We are NOT financial advisors.
Please subscribe to both The Contrarian Capitalist and Tom Bradshaw using the buttons below.
The Contrarian Capitalist
Tom Bradshaw/Beyond the Headlines
Tom Bradshaw LinkedIn
10 Key Takeaways
Bitcoin surged around 25% in August, but Tom remains bearish and sees the move as potentially being a bull trap.
$80,000 is a major resistance level for Bitcoin, while a failure there could eventually open the door to much lower prices.
US government bond yields remain elevated, creating a difficult situation for the Federal Reserve and the highly indebted US economy.
Oil remains a major inflation risk, particularly if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate further.
The diesel crack spread has surged to historically elevated levels, potentially increasing costs throughout the real economy.
Agricultural commodities are beginning to trend higher, raising the prospect of further food inflation.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in strong technical uptrends, despite concerns that US equities are in an extreme valuation bubble.
The Dow has formed a potentially bearish monthly candle, making September and October an important period to watch for equity markets.
Tom Bradshaw’s model has turned bearish on gold and silver, leading him to sell his ETF holdings after substantial gains.
The long-term outlook for precious metals remains bullish, but Tom believes a major liquidity-driven correction could potentially take gold towards $2,800 and silver towards $30 before the next major bull market resumes.


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit contrariancapitalist.substack.com/subscribe