The SME Stream

As 2025 wraps, how are we set up for the year to come? We welcome economic experts Shamubeel Eaqub, Chief Economist at Simplicity, and Paul McBeth from the Bottom Line, to review a strange year in the markets. Why was the market’s reaction to trade tariffs so unpredictable? Why has market commentary been so pessimistic lately, even as Wall Street approaches new records? Why has NZ’s economy remained sluggish while share markets rose abroad? Has the property investing market learned its lesson? Hear Shamubeel’s theory that it’s been a humbling year for market commentators, and Paul's thoughts on the surprising strength of NZX small caps and Freightways. Plus, the AI question: A bubble, or the next industrial revolution? For more or to watch on YouTube—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunchShared Lunch is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. It is not financial advice. Information provided is general only and current at the time it’s provided, and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. We do not provide recommendations and you should always read the disclosure documents available from the product issuer before making a financial decision. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions—including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers—can be found on our relevant Australian or NZ website. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. If you require financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government insists it has a plan to turn the economy around. Treasury's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows the country is first forecast to be in the black by 2029-2030. The Finance Minister has admitted the country is borrowing money to pay the interest bill on the debt. Nicola Willis told Heather du Plessis Allan that bill is about $9 billion a year. She says around 80% of borrowing over the next few years will be for capital assets like hospitals, schools, and roads. There may also be more cuts to the public service as they aim to get back down to surplus. Economic growth is expected to be just 1.7% next year, and Willis says there's still room for efficiency in the public service. She will be sending letters out to her cabinet colleagues to give them ideas on where they can make some savings. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Treasury's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update has painted a concerning picture for the Government books. It forecasted the deficit will peak at $16.9 billion dollars, and only drop to $60 million in the 2029-2030 financial year. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says this forecast doesn't come with many surprises. "If you look at the bigger picture, we're now going to have a decade of deficits. And if you look at the last two years, the situation's actually been worsening." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister's still aiming for a surplus this decade, despite today's bleak economic news. Treasury's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows more delay to getting the books back to black. The deficit's expected to deepen more to a high of $16.9 billion and not narrow to $60 million dollars until 2029-30. Nicola Willis says a 2029 surplus is very achievable. "What that will take is just a small revision to the growth upwards, combined with fiscal discipline. And those are two things that our Government is committed to." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Director General of MPI reviews the December Situation and Outlook for the Primary Industries (SOPI) that was released this morning. Kiwi farmers, growers, and primary producers are driving New Zealand’s economy with food and fibre exports set to reach a record $62 billion for the year to June 30, 2026. The sector now accounts for 83% of all NZ goods exports. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.