The Morning Filter

In this bonus episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-host Dave Sekera and Morningstar senior equity analyst Dan Romanoff take a deep dive into one of Sekera’s top stock picks: Microsoft MSFT. Microsoft isn’t just a software company; it’s a portfolio of businesses, and Sekera and Romanoff discuss the company’s individual segments. They cover why Microsoft remains a wide moat company in the face of AI disruption and walk through its moat sources.

They unpack Morningstar’s forecasts for the company’s AI spending, revenue, and margins, and explain how Romanoff arrives at a $600 fair value estimate for Microsoft stock. They wrap up with a discussion about the key risks Microsoft faces today.

Episode Highlights 

00:00:00 Welcome

00:01:44 Microsoft isn’t a typical software company.

00:07:50 What Microsoft’s key competitive advantages are and why they’re durable.

00:15:58 How much Microsoft might spend on artificial intelligence and how quickly revenue could grow in relation to the company’s AI build out.

00:26:50 Forecasts for Microsoft’s revenue, operating margin, and earnings.

00:34:27 Why Morningstar is more constructive on Microsoft stock today than the market is.

 

00:43:33 The biggest risk to our $600 valuation on Microsoft stock.

 

Read about topics from this episode. 

After Earnings, Is Microsoft a Buy, Sell or Fairly Valued?
Microsoft Earnings: Azure and Capital Expenditures Are Expected to Accelerate

MSFT: This Might Be the Best Core Stock Bargain in the Market Today

 

Have an idea for a bonus episode? Send it to [email protected].

 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

 

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

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In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss why stock investors should learn how to tell the difference between signal and noise when evaluating investments. They review examples of both and cover how, over time, noise can become signal. Tune in to find out what resources investors can use to discern signal from noise, why an SEC-proposed change to company reporting may make it more difficult to tell the difference, and whether artificial intelligence is more noise or more signal.

They wrap up with 3 misunderstood stocks to buy because investors are confusing signal and noise. And as a bonus, they share an overvalued stock to sell that’s shooting out the lights based on noise, too.

Episode Highlights 

Why it’s important for investors to understand the difference between signal and noise.

Signal can change long-term cash flows and impact a company’s competitive advantages while noise only affects short-term expectations and sentiment.

Noise can become signal over time. Here’s where to look for signs of that and what to look for.

Is it too early to separate signal from noise when it comes to the impact AI may have on companies?

Misunderstood stocks that look undervalued because investors are confusing signal and noise.

 

Read about topics from this episode. 

US Stock Market Outlook: Where to Find Value After April’s Rally: https://www.morningstar.com/markets/us-stock-market-outlook-where-find-value-after-aprils-rally

See David Sekera’s Archive: https://www.morningstar.com/people/david-sekera

 

 

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected].

 

Follow us on social media.

Dave Sekera on X: @MstarMarkets https://x.com/MstarMarkets

Dave Sekera on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davesekera

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/

X: https://x.com/MorningstarInc

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all

 

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski recap last week’s market performance considering new developments in the Iran War. They cover why US investors should watch the Japanese yen, if inflation reports could rattle markets this week, and what to listen for in the upcoming earnings reports from Applied Materials AMAT and Cisco CSCO. Tune in to find out if AMD, Palantir PLTR and ARM ARM look attractive after reporting earnings.

They discuss why Fortinet FTNT soared last week and brought other cybersecurity stocks along for the ride. Then unpack an under-discussed Morningstar rating that encapsulates the quality of a company’s management team. They conclude this week’s episode with four stock picks to invest in after earnings.

Episode Highlights 

Why to watch the Japanese yen

What this week’s inflation reports could mean for the US stock market

Which AI companies reporting this week to keep an eye on

After reporting stellar results, is Advanced Micro Devices AMD a buy?

How to use Morningstar’s Capital Allocation Rating when analyzing stocks to invest in

Undervalued stocks to buy after earnings

 

 

Read about topics from this episode. 

US Stock Market Outlook: Where to Find Value After April’s Rally

See David Sekera’s Archive

 

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

 

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski cover the latest in the war and the market, the GDP print, and the Fed meeting. They update the stock barbell strategy heading into May. Key earnings releases this week include Advanced Micro Devices AMD and Fortinet FTNT; tune in to find out why. 

They reveal which of the big tech stocks—Alphabet GOOGL, Microsoft MSFT, Meta Platforms META, Amazon.com AMZN and Apple AAPL—look like stocks to buy after earnings. The episode wraps with three overvalued stocks to take profits in and three undervalued stocks to buy instead.

Episode Highlights 

The one theme driving economic growth today

How to position your stock portfolio for the new month

Which earnings reports to watch for in the week ahead

Top insights from big tech earnings

Stocks to lock in gains and promising stocks to buy instead

 

Read about topics from this episode. 

Q2 2026 Stock Market Outlook: Don’t Panic, Readjust

Read Dave’s complete archive.

 

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

 

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

 

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss what’s on radar this week after the US stock market hit new highs, including the Fed meeting and inflation numbers. They’ll preview big tech earnings coming out this week from Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft and do a rapid-fire Q&A about what to watch for in the earnings for several other companies including Eli Lilly LLY and UPS UPS. 

Tune in to find out if Intel, ServiceNow or Tesla are stocks to buy after earnings—and whether it’s time to throw in the towel or back up the truck on Adobe. They wrap up with three former stocks picks that look like attractive stocks to buy again.

Episode Highlights 

00:00:00 Welcome

00:02:27 Can the US stock market continue to hit new highs?

00:06:36 What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting, which is Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair

00:10:09 Whether Big Tech results and forecasts from Alphabet GOOGL, Apple AAPL, Amazon AMZN, Meta Platforms META, and Microsoft MSFT may disappoint

00:23:25 If Intel INTC, ServiceNow NOW or Tesla TSLA look attractive after earnings

00:34:56 Is Adobe ADBE a buy or sell today?

00:37:52 3 stock picks that look undervalued again

 

Read about topics from this episode. 

Q2 2026 Stock Market Outlook: Don’t Panic, Readjust

Read Dave’s complete archive.

 

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

 

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

This episode is sponsored by Vanguard: https://advisors.vanguard.com/engagement/fixed-income

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.