The Rational Reminder Podcast

• Episode 349 – AMA #4

  In this episode, Ben, Dan, and Mark tackle another Ask Me Anything (AMA) session, covering a wide range of investing and financial planning topics. They begin with a highly requested debate on factor investing versus market cap-weighted portfolios and unpack the theory, research, and practical considerations behind both strategies. Ben explains why he prefers factor tilts when managing client portfolios, while Dan shares his perspective on why a simple market cap-weighted approach is more practical and sustainable. Then, they delve into the drivers of investor behaviour, common mistakes investors make, and powerful strategies to help investors overcome biases and improve their decision-making abilities. They also discuss the role of bonds in a portfolio, whether international bonds offer additional benefits, key retirement planning strategies, and the impact of sequence-of-returns risk. Join the conversation to discover how large corporations manage cash reserves, unpack the SPIVA Canada 2024 report findings, and explore the continued struggles of active management. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:01:06) Ben explains why market cap weighting is a valid strategy but prefers factor tilting. (0:06:58) Dan shares why he prefers market cap weighting approaches over factor tilting. (0:13:45) Hear how client expectations shape their investment approaches. (0:18:12) How to overcome the psychological challenges of investing and reframe your mindset. (0:22:02) The role of bonds and fixed income in a portfolio and sequence of withdrawal risk. (0:36:19) Recommendations for factor ETFs and the home biases associated with them. (0:39:48) Unpack the 4% rule for retirement planning and amortization-based withdrawals. (0:47:47) Expected returns for a “millennial” portfolio and why 10% annualized is unrealistic. (0:52:38) Find out if PWL would ever open a branch in the US and about their US partnerships. (0:53:20) Explore how corporate cash management differs from typical household investing. (0:55:59) Uncover the value of bonds and the common misconceptions surrounding them. (1:00:40) Learn about the pros and cons of investing in stocks and ETFs. (1:09:13) Aftershow: the SPIVA Canada 2024 report, activate management struggles, updates, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Dimensional (DFA) vs. Vanguard — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfknibBat2A Episode 93: Cliff Asness from AQR — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/93 Episode 135: William Bengen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/135 Episode 297: Do Stocks Return 10-12% On Average? — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/297 Episode 340: Ben Mathew — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/340 Episode 343: How to Choose an Asset Allocation — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/343 Credit Suisse Data — https://marketdata.credit-suisse.com/pmdr/en/index.html#/ SPIVA® Canada Year-End 2024 — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/article/spiva-canada/ The Wealthy Barber Podcast — https://thewealthybarber.com/podcast/   Books From Today’s Episode:   Wealthier — https://www.amazon.com/Wealthier-Investing-Field-Guide-Millennials-ebook/dp/B0CX2VD1CW

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• Episode 348 - Andrew Barclay (StatCan): Measuring Inflation

  Is the government manipulating inflation data? Why do so many people feel like their personal costs are rising faster than official inflation numbers suggest? In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we dive deep into one of the most debated and misunderstood economic topics: inflation. Today, we are joined by Andrew Barclay, an economist and senior analyst in the Consumer Price Division at Statistics Canada, to discuss everything you need to know about inflation and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Statistics Canada is Canada’s national statistical agency dedicated to producing accurate, relevant, and timely data to help Canadians better understand their country. In our conversation, we unpack how inflation and the CPI are calculated and why it is so important. We explore the controversy around CPI calculations and the influence of inflation on government benefits, tax brackets, and the overall economy. Andrew also addresses scepticism and conspiracy theories about government inflation reporting, uncovers drivers of the perception gap, and explains how Statistics Canada ensures the accuracy and integrity of its data. Join us to hear the real story behind CPI and inflation with Andrew Barclay!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:00) Background about Andrew and what inspired today's topic.  (0:05:33) Find out why measuring inflation is important and how the CPI is calculated.  (0:10:08) What goes into the CPI basket and how frequently the contents are updated. (0:12:42) How consumer choices impact inflation and how 'shrinkflation' is accounted for. (0:15:43) Learn how quality adjustments are accounted for in the CPI and why they matter.  (0:19:01) Scepticism surrounding quality adjustments and how the CPI adapts to crises. (0:25:21) The role of grocery price tracking and why Canada uses a single CPI measure. (0:28:08) Explore the idea of personal inflation and why it is usually different to the CPI. (0:31:10) The difference between home prices and housing costs and how they are calculated. (0:35:41) Hear how Statistics Canada's approach for housing compares to other methodologies. (0:41:15) Perceived inflation versus actual inflation and drivers of the inflation perception gap. (0:51:58) Statistics Canada's method of dealing with the perception gap and ensuring quality.  (0:55:51) Uncover the most criticized indexes and how Statistics Canada includes feedback. (1:01:52) Andrew's message for those who do not trust the CPI and his definition of success.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Andrew Barclay on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-barclay-a38b6035/ Statistics Canada — https://www.statcan.gc.ca/ Canadian System of National Accounts | 'Catalogue of products' — https://publications.gc.ca/Collection/Statcan/13F0029X/13F0029XIE2000001.pdf Bank of Canada — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/ Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) — https://www.crea.ca/ Episode 323: Renting Versus Buying a Home in Canada 2005-2024 — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/323 Surveys of Consumers | University of Michigan — https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ Statistics Canada | The Daily — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/index-eng.htm   Books From Today’s Episode:   The Courage to Be Disliked — https://www.amazon.com/Courage-Be-Disliked-Phenomenon-Happiness/dp/1501197274   Papers From Today’s Episode:  'The naked eye versus the CPI: How does our perception of inflation stack up against the data?' — https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/256-naked-eye-versus-cpi-how-does-our-perception-inflation-stack-against-data

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• Episode 347 - The Case for Index Funds

  Are index funds the best investment strategy for most investors? In this episode of Rational Reminder, Benjamin Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath explore why low-cost index funds should be the primary investment strategy for most people. They explain how index funds evolved from a niche concept to a widely accepted strategy and outline their six key benefits. Learn about the fees associated with index funds, why index funds outperform most actively managed funds, and how to avoid the risks of picking individual stocks. They also explore academic research on long-term mutual fund performance, the persistence (or lack thereof) in active management, and the dangers of alternative indexing schemes. Discover how behaviour impacts investment decisions and why a globally diversified portfolio is crucial. Finally, in the aftershow, Ben shares an update regarding his health and listener feedback from the Rational Reminder community. Join the conversation and uncover why index funds are the best investment strategy and how to leverage them effectively to maximize your portfolio for long-term gains. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:01:58) Outline of today's topic and why index funds should be everyone's main investment strategy. (0:05:10) Index fund fundamentals, market cap weighting, and why not all ETFs are index funds.  (0:10:03) Learn about the transition of index funds into mainstream finance and their low-fee advantages. (0:13:30) Linking fees to index performance and why lower fees gives them an advantage over managed funds. (0:19:50) The general awareness about index funds and what impact the lack of diversification has on actively managed funds. (0:26:35) Explore critical research comparing the returns on investment between index funds and actively managed funds. (0:33:32) Unpack why the size of the active management industry matters and common misconceptions surrounding the long-term returns of mutual funds. (0:42:26) Discover why some fund managers do well and how sector-specific performance influences stock returns. (0:48:28) Unpack why average returns are better than beating the market and what makes index funds tax efficient.  (0:51:08) Find out what makes index funds easy to use and how this results in higher returns in the long term.  (0:55:25) How index funds are consistent with foundational finance theory and why thematic ETFs and sector-specific index funds should be avoided. (1:05:40) The aftershow: Ben shares a personal health update, Rational Reminder news, and a request for listener AMA questions.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Episode 54: Dr. David Blitzer — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/54 Episode 124: Prof. Lubos Pastor — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/124 Episode 133: Adriana Robertson — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/133 Episode 220: Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/220 Episode 244: Charles D. Ellis — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/244 Episode 268: Itzhak Ben-David — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/268 Episode 302: Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/302 Episode 346: Hendrik Bessembinder — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/346 Coffeezilla — https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeezilla Coffeezilla: Investing for Idiots — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoGm61I52YQ YCharts — https://ycharts.com/   Papers From Today’s Episode:    'The Arithmetic of Active Management' — https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v47.n1.7 'Sharpening Sharpe’s Arithmetic' — https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.2469/faj.v74.n1.4 'Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/424739 'Why Indexing Works' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asmb.2271 'Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks' — https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2188870 'The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/2325404 'On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance' — https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x 'Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x 'Passive in name only: Delegated management and index investing' — https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/yjor36&div=20&id=&page=

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• Episode 346 - Hendrik Bessembinder: Why It's So Hard to Beat the Market

  Did you know that just a handful of stocks drive nearly all of the stock market’s long-term gains? In this episode, we sit down with Hendrik Bessembinder to discuss his groundbreaking research on why most stocks fail to outperform Treasury bills and how a small fraction of stocks generate the most long-term market returns. Hendrik is a Professor in the Department of Finance at Arizona State University whose research focuses on market design, trading, and long-term investment performance across stock, foreign exchange, fixed income, futures, and energy markets. In addition to his academic contributions, Professor Bessembinder has over 25 years of consulting experience, advising major firms, financial markets, and government agencies. In our conversation, we delve into the findings of his research and find out how a small fraction of stocks generate the majority of long-term returns. We explore why traditional investment strategies often overlook the impact of skewness, the impacts of broad diversification and passive investing, and why active fund managers struggle to beat the market. Discover why chasing past returns can lead to costly mistakes, his latest research on 'sustainable returns', what type of industries have the highest stock returns, common investing mistakes, and more. Join us to uncover the surprising realities of stock market returns and how you can build a portfolio that stands the test of time with Professor Hendrik Bessembinder. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:54) Explore Hendrik’s research on long-term stock returns and how most returns come from a small group of stocks. (0:08:30) Learn how company size interacts with the skewness in stock returns and what it means for individual investors. (0:11:39) Considering fundamentals in stock returns and the implications of skewness for measuring portfolio performance. (0:15:42) Unpack how he used bootstrap simulations in his paper and the performance of stock returns versus Treasury bills. (0:19:01) Find out the proportion of US firms responsible for dollar wealth creation and why diversification is essential for long-term stock returns. (0:25:23) Navigating volatility in the market and why it is difficult to identify skilled managers in time to leverage the market. (0:28:00) Compare the performance of US stocks versus global stocks and what is driving their performance. (0:32:04) What the findings of his research means for financial planners and individual investors.  (0:35:35) Uncover which US firms generated the highest returns and what type of industries these companies are in. (0:42:07) Hear about the long-term performance of US mutual funds and how investor behaviour contributes to it. (0:49:54) How passive investing and index funds have reduced the contributions of actively managed mutual funds and the lessons for investors. (0:55:48) Discover Professor Bessembinder's broader research interests and his definition of success.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Professor Hendrik Bessembinder — https://search.asu.edu/profile/2717225 Arizona State University — https://www.asu.edu/ KRIS — https://www.kris-online.com/ Professor Hendrik Bessembinder papers on SSRN — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=667 SPIVA — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/ Episode 322: Professor Marco Sammon — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/322 Episode 124: Professor Lubos Pastor — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/124   Papers From Today’s Episode:    'Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X18301521 'Extending Portfolio Theory to Compound Returns' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3875870 'Luck versus Skill in the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Returns' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01598.x 'Measuring Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X15000628 'Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks' — https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2188870 'Which U.S. Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4897069 'How Should Investors’ Long-Term Returns Be Measured?' — https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0015198X.2024.2401765

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  1:03:06
• Episode 345 - AMA #3

  As we continue to answer your questions from our most recent AMA, Ben, Mark, and Dan begin today’s episode with Bitcoin and how its value as an investment has changed over the years. Then, after briefly explaining how to find short clips of this podcast online, we discuss why many companies choose not to list directly on the TXS, how to implement factor investing without factor EFTS, the best way to invest if you could only make one EFT investment in your lifetime, and, and understanding buffered EFTs and market-linked GICs. We also cover expected returns in a corrupt market, return stacking for individuals, academia versus real-world applications, and why stock valuations will never be the same as they were in the past. To end, we look at lump sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging, what to remember regarding asset allocation, how we rebalance portfolios here at PWL Capital, and we wish Ben well as he awaits his diagnosis. Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:30) Unpacking the value of Bitcoin as an investment; past, present, and future.  (0:09:58) Why we don’t use YouTube Shorts anymore and how to find our bite-sized clips.  (0:10:29) Understanding why many companies refrain from directly listing on the TXS.  (0:11:29) An interlude on how we take care of our bodies.  (0:14:22) Implementing factor investing without factor ETFs, and Manulife’s multifactor ETFs. (0:19:21) What we would do if we could only invest in one ETF until retirement. (0:22:23) Buffered EFTs and market-linked GICs.   (0:26:15) Market efficiency and expected returns in a low transparency/high corruption market.   (0:29:50) Whether return stacking is a good idea for individuals, and unpacking leverage.  (0:40:44) Balancing proven business philosophies with academic thinking.  (0:47:39) The Shiller PE Ratio; why stock valuations are permanently higher than in the past.   (0:54:58) Lump sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging.  (1:00:09) Asset allocation and how to know which assets to sell first.  (1:04:57) How PWL Capital rebalances client portfolios – an operational perspective.  (1:10:42) The after show: Testicular cancer and heartwarming reviews.    Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP  Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/   ‘Episode 80: A Planning Checklist, Portfolio Concentration, and Leverage’ — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/80  ‘Episode 343: How to Choose an Asset Allocation’ — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/343 ‘Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton: ICAPM, Retirement, and Models in Finance’ — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234   ‘Episode 335: What About Warren Buffett?’ — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/335  ‘Episode 202: Antti Ilmanen: The Building Blocks of Long-Run Returns’ — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/202   ‘Episode 262: Prof. Francisco Gomes: Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle’ — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/262   ‘Dan Bortolotti: Index Investing, ETFs and Financial Planning’ — https://thewealthybarber.com/podcast/dan-bortolotti-index-investing-etfs-and-financial-planning-twb-podcast-9/   Manulife Investment Management — https://www.manulifeim.com/retail/ca/en  Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://www.dimensional.com/hk-en/financial-professionals  Scott Cederburg on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-cederburg-0917b0121/  Corey Hoffstein on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/coreyhoffstein/   We Study Billionaires — https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/we-study-billionaires/   Hendrik Bessembinder | ASU Search — https://search.asu.edu/profile/2717225  Shiller PE Ratio — https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe  ‘What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?’ — https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/   Books From Today’s Episode:  The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan — https://www.amazon.com/Only-Guide-Youll-Right-Financial/dp/1576603660    Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4590406  ‘Why Not 100% Equities’ — https://ibs-masters.narod.ru/olderfiles/1/asness_100equities.pdf   ‘A Conversation with Benjamin Graham’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/4477960  ‘Forecasting Stock Returns: What signals matter, and what do they say now?’ — https://fairwaywealth.com/wp-content/uploads/Vanguard-Research-11-30-2014.pdf  ‘Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum Investing’ — https://pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Dollar-Cost-Averaging-vs-Lump-Sum-Investing.pdf

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  1:14:09

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