S8 Ep5: What impact have trade sanctions had on Russia?
Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. How effective have the trade sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022 been? Politically, they were comprehensive and quick. But anecdotal reporting has suggested that Russian firms that wanted to get round the sanctions could do so. To reach a more rigorous conclusion, Tim Phillips spoke to Dzhamilya Nigmatulina about the research that she and her colleagues have done using domestic railway shipments, firm balance sheets, and government procurement data to produce the most comprehensive analysis so far of the economic impact so far of the trade sanctions on Russia.
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14:58
S8 Ep4: Crime and punishment?
Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it was already under sanctions for annexing Crimea in 2014. But did the gradual way in which these well intended “smart sanctions” were phased in during the 2010s allow many Russian banks, and their customers, to avoid any negative consequences? Mikhail Mamonov tells Tim Phillips about the consequences, or lack of them, of the smart sanctions imposed on Russia.
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18:31
S8 Ep3: Trump’s tariffs: Help for the heartland?
In economically depressed regions of the US – the “heartland” – President Trump’s 2018 trade war was a popular decision: “We’re going to bring jobs back to our country,” he told voters. Did the tariffs he imposed generate jobs? And what was the impact of the retaliatory tariffs imposed by China? David Dorn talks to Tim Phillips about the recent history of US trade policy, and what this means for Trump 2.0.
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14:56
S8 Ep2: What policymakers get wrong about US trade deficits
Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. For two decades Maurice Obstfeld has been researching the causes and consequences of the global trade imbalances in the world economy. Now, as are seeing a retreat from globalisation, they are once again a talking point for President Trump’s trade policymakers. He talks to Tim Phillips about whether the popular narratives about their cause and effect stand up to scrutiny, and the consequences of the Trump 2.0 policy promises that those narratives have inspired.
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21:50
S8 Ep1: Can AI forecasts improve crisis response?
Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. In the first of a series of episodes from CEPR’s annual festival of new research, we ask: can artificial intelligence help agencies and governments cope with natural disasters, by making it more practical to take anticipatory action? The topic is the subject of a new policy insight from CEPR, and Tim Phillips speaks to two of the authors: Margherita Philipp and Hannes Mueller about the potential and problems of AI-driven expert systems that can predict where disasters might happen.
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