At Any Rate

• Global Commodities: Global upstream Oil & Gas capital spending faces first contraction since 2020

  Global upstream oil and gas spending is expected to hit $543 billion this year, a 1.1% decrease from 2024, with reduced capital allocation across all regions except the Middle East. Capital spending in the US shale sector experienced a 3.2% drop in 2024, with forecasts indicating a further 1.9% decline in 2025, despite rising costs from tariffs on steel and other product. Despite conservative capital plans, US oil liquids production is set to rise by 672 kbd in 2025 and 530 kbd in 2026, boosted by substantial hedging during mid-June's oil price spike. Globally, oil liquids supply is projected to grow by 2.3 mbd this year. Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on July 3, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4939838-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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• Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios

  This week, our global FX strategists, Meera Chandan, Ben Jarman, Patrick Locke, Octavia Popescu and James Nelligan take a look at FX hedge ratios across Australia, Canada, Scandinavia and the Eurozone, and discuss where further adjustments can impact currencies in 2H’25. We also discuss the latest views on sterling following this week’s fiscal news out of the UK, and explain why US payrolls doesn’t derail the USD downtrend. This podcast was recorded on 03 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4974434-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5003828-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5003800-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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• Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty

  In this episode of At Any Rate Arindam Sandilya, Juan Duran-Vara and Ladislav Jankovic discuss FX Derivatives themes of interest heading into 2H25. We briefly go over the FX volatility backdrop and then pivot to the six themes: carry, USD skew, correlations, directional exposure in JPY and EUR, JPY surface setup, and wrap it up with the just-in case recession hedges.   Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy Juan Duran-Vara, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5018065-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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• Global Rates: European rates markets roundup: German fiscal, NATO meeting, carry themes, de-dollarisation flows and UK rates

  In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Elisabetta Ferrara discuss recent German fiscal and NATO events this week as well as views on carry as a theme, an update on tracking de-dollarisation flows and thoughts on UK rates.   Speakers Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategy Elisabetta Ferrara, European Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5014923-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4985123-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5012148-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5005164-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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• Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook - Tell me something new

  The DM and EM FX strategy team discuss the new themes for currencies heading into 2H25.    Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Antonin T Delair, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy Kunj J Padh, Global FX Strategy Ikue Saito, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 27 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5018024-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4996209-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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