The Julia La Roche Show

• #231 Chris Whalen: Fed 'Playing Chicken' with Liquidity as High Debt Levels Persist, Balance Sheet Shrinks

  Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape. Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs 03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much 04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves 06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy 08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates 09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity 12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels 13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills 15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon 17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID 18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration 19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits 21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues 22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels 24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28 25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra 27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling 29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety 31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging

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• #230 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Labor Market Cracks, Recession Signals, and Why We'll Likely See A March Rate Cut

  Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 230 for an in-person Fed day analysis following the January FOMC meeting. She breaks down Powell's press conference, newly released 2019 Fed transcripts, and signals of labor market weakness that official numbers might miss. DiMartino Booth explains why the Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics could accelerate rate cuts, while warning about mounting evidence of job market deterioration hidden beneath headline numbers. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links:   QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Opening discussion on disinflationary pressures 1:09 Analysis of 2019 Fed transcripts and global trade impact 3:13 Discussion of Conference Board data and labor market signals 8:56 Analysis of rental market dynamics and Fed's new inflation metrics 17:36 Housing market analysis and renter dynamics 18:28 Impact of tariffs on economy and growth 21:54 Release timing of Fed transcripts and messaging 23:16 Current state of economy and job market analysis 28:54 Federal employee buyouts and workforce implications 34:11 Evolution of layoff reporting and gig economy impact 38:54 Discussion of fiscal policy mechanisms and inflation 41:30 Analysis of potential government efficiency measures 47:00 AI impact on markets and tech valuations 50:57 Societal shifts in spending habits and debt management 54:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work

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• #229 David Woo: DeepSeek's Massive Macro Implications, Trump 2.0 Challenges, and Top Trade Ideas

  Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security. In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations. In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas: The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US Treasuries Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion 0:00 Intro with David Woo 1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance 3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth 5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing 7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance 9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results 11:15 Impact on technology monetization 12:17 Conclusion Part 2 12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges 21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy 34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach 36:49 TikTok situation analysis 41:44 US-China trade relations 43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story 46:03 Chinese market investment outlook 49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis 56:10 US Treasury market outlook 59:13 Closing thoughts

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• #228 Steve Hanke: 'It's Going To Be A Year Of Investing Dangerously' — Bubble Detector At Highest Levels

  Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 227 to shares his outlook for the US economy and financial markets in 2025. Applying his famed "quantity theory of money," Professor Hanke warns that the economy is set to slow this year due to the lagged effects of past monetary and fiscal policies. He cautions that it's "going to be a year of investing dangerously," with his proprietary bubble detector signaling that markets are extremely overvalued and complacent, reaching the highest levels ever. Hanke also discusses the risks posed by runaway government debt, advocates for right-sizing government's role in the economy, and shares his latest books and research. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0 Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:11 Macro outlook using quantity theory of money 03:38 Impact of Fed policy on asset prices, inequality, and inflation 07:06 How Fed-driven inequality influenced 2024 election outcome 10:43 China's economic troubles and deflationary risks 13:28 Europe's economic stagnation and fiscal woes 15:38 Likelihood of a recession in 2025 under the new administration 17:36 Parallels to the Reagan era and smart economic policies 20:32 Concerns about Trump's mercantilist trade policies and border control plans 23:43 Hanke's bubble detector signaling overvalued, complacent markets 26:46 Runaway US national debt - the lying price problem and moral hazard 30:06 Restoring confidence and implementing a constitutional debt brake 32:00 Right-sizing government to boost economic growth 33:53 Simplifying taxes with a flat tax 35:48 Hanke's latest books and how to follow his work

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• #227 Ted Oakley: Almost Everybody is Complacent Right Now

  Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration's economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing. With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 00:00 Introduction and welcome 01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates 04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration 06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt 09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals 11:12 Government's economic impact; recession risks 15:54 Oakley's past performance in turbulent markets 19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics 22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing 25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks 28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation 31:47 Fed's interest rate dilemma 34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem 37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts 39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks 42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth 46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth 49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity

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