The Julia La Roche Show

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 366 to break down what he calls the most important and overlooked structural shift in financial history — the rise of passive investing. Green argues that the market isn't broken in the way most people think: it's not fraud or irrational exuberance, it's the mechanical consequence of a regulatory change in 2006 that turned 401k contributions into an automatic, valuation-blind buying machine. With passive now at 55% of the market — and rising 4% per year — Green shares new research showing that somewhere between 65% and 80%, a 1987-style crash stops being a possibility and becomes nearly inevitable. He also connects the dots between our retirement system, the housing crisis, and why both boomers and millennials are scared — just for completely different reasons.

Links:
Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read
Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/

Timestamps
00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green
1:04 - What "broken markets" actually means today
2:40 - The Costanza market and how Mike's research began
6:21 - Passive went from 2% to 55% of the market since 1992
7:05 - Why passive investing is just momentum with no valuation filter
9:45 - The 2006 Pension Protection Act — the legislation nobody talks about
10:13 - Why Vanguard and Bogle aren't the ones to blame
10:19 - The book: The Greatest Story Ever Sold
10:39 - The academic paper that forced Mike to rewrite the book
13:59 - Type A vs Type B savers — and the snow cone moment
14:35 - Prices don't move because of information. They move because of flows.
15:08 - The threshold: 65–80% passive and the market becomes unstable
16:07 - Why the coming crash could be worse than 1987
19:37 - The XIV collapse — and what it taught Mike about predicting crashes
22:00 - Is there a disconnect between markets and the economy right now?
22:19 - Nvidia's margins, vendor financing, and the Cisco parallel
24:10 - The S&P could be worth less than 2,000 on a pure DCF basis
25:29 - Pushing back on the "we've never been better off" narrative
27:21 - The valley of death and the precarity line
28:36 - Why demographics are at the center of everything
29:29 - Why boomers are terrified too — and why that matters for younger people
31:14 - The housing trap: boomers won't sell, millennials can't buy
34:21 - What does all this say about the social fabric?
35:18 - "Tax wealth, not work" — the tax code we had in the 1950s
36:41 - Why a wealth tax is actually the wrong solution
38:11 - Wrap up

Veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to break down a rapidly deteriorating macro picture, warning that oil markets are currently pricing in anticipation of a shortage — not the shortage itself — and that the next seven to ten days could be a watershed moment if the Gulf conflict doesn't de-escalate. He explains why gold may moderate near term despite the chaos (strong dollar, rising yields), but remains convicted it will preserve purchasing power over the next decade as the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power. Rick also flags uranium and nuclear power as the clearest long-term beneficiary of the energy crisis, updates his silver miner trade (up ~21%), and sounds the alarm on a potential credit crunch in private and junk bond markets that few are talking about.

00:00 — Introduction
00:43 — Oil crisis: why prices are "anticipatory" & what happens in 7–10 days
06:07 — The truth about gold & fear (it's not what you think)
08:03 — Long bonds breach 5% — what that means for you
11:31 — How to protect yourself: liquidity, gold & balance sheets
15:36 — Gold at $4,800 & the silver miner trade update
19:35 — Oil above $100 and what it signals about the global economy
22:47 — Why the next 7–10 days are critical
27:28 — The biggest unsung winner of this war: uranium & nuclear
31:07 — How to actually invest in uranium (names & tickers)
32:53 — Near-term bleak, long-term better — Rick's full outlook
34:05 — Why is the stock market hitting new highs during a war?
37:06 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: hawk or not?
38:54 — Where we are in the commodity super cycle
41:44 — Battle Bank update + Symposium + free portfolio ranking offer

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what he calls one of the most significant weeks in Fed history — Powell's final press conference as chairman, his decision to stay on as a Fed governor to block Trump from a second appointment, and what it means for Kevin Warsh walking into a hostile committee with the most dissenting votes since 1992. Chris explains why the Fed has been "the key engine of progressive socialism in Washington" since 1935, what a Warsh-led Fed actually looks like in practice, and why the Trump White House missed a political layup by not hanging "the burning tire of home price affordability" around Powell's neck. Plus: why sulfur — not oil — is the one word that sums up the biggest threat to the global economy right now, what China's sulfuric acid export ban means for copper, silver, and inflation, and why distressed real estate is "the next trade."

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome & intro — what a week it was
2:05 Powell staying as fed governor
5:08 Warsh — "a hawk on inflation but a supply sider"
7:15 Powell's warning about regional Fed presidents
8:10 What can we expect from a Warsh-led Fed?
11:30 "The burning tire they should have hung around Powell's neck"
12:25 "What would be the message?" — Chris on political messaging and affordability
14:44 What change is Chris most looking forward to at the Fed?
16:41 Inflation is accelerating
17:28 Sulfur — the one word that sums up the global economic threat
20:17 What is Chris doing with his precious metals right now?
21:17 US equity markets hitting record highs — what does Chris make of it? 24:30 Distressed real estate is "the next trade"
29:40 One year anniversary of Inflated — reflection and what's come to fruition
34:32 What is Chris watching next week?

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, explains why she's "less fed up" despite disagreeing with Fed policy - praising Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as governor to protect Fed independence, drawing parallels to Marriner Eccles' 1948 stand against President Truman. Danielle calls Powell's move "patriotic" while warning we're "flirting with a liquidity crisis" as non-banks have become "too big to fail." She discusses the challenges Kevin Warsh will face as incoming chair, argues the Fed has failed its employment mandate, and explains how the economy cannot withstand persistently high oil prices and interest rates simultaneously.

Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth
0:32 Powell's last time at the podium - Takeaways
1:48 The Eccles parallel - Fed independence fight in 1948
2:39 Why Danielle is "less fed up" today
2:57 The Powell move - Staying on as governor
4:20 Risk of being perceived as shadow Fed chair?
5:39 Triple hawkish dissent
6:16 Unprecedented dissent levels - Early resistance signs?
7:57 Powell's legacy and how it changed today
9:22 The Eccles legacy - Established as governor, not chair
10:27 Powell's move was "patriotic" - Protecting Fed independence
11:27 What is your read on Kevin Warsh?
12:48 Liquidity crises take precedence - The Mike Tyson test
13:40 0% chance of rate cut - Should they have cut?
14:47 Fed has failed its employment mandate
16:48 Oil prices and disinflationary demand destruction
17:17 Bankruptcies accelerating, layoffs increasing
18:01 Home prices falling - Thinking about inflation wrong
19:16 The valley of death at $100k income level
19:32 Higher for longer means more pain
20:34 How does building consensus at the Fed work?
22:04 Flirting with a liquidity crisis - How big is the risk?
22:38 Pummeling the housing market
23:26 More sellers than buyers - Biggest disconnect ever
24:09 Investment boom or panic stockpiling ahead of tariffs?
25:27 Economy can't withstand high oil and high rates
28:07 Base case for rest of 2026 - Fed cuts
30:43 If you could advise Kevin Warsh, what would you say?
32:17 Bloomberg chat - hot takes with institutional investors
33:34 What's keeping you up at night and making you hopeful?
35:37 Non-banks now too big to fail
37:06 Systemic risk from non-banking system
37:25 Mother's Day tribute - Legacy and three graduating kids
38:03 Closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime."

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817

Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira837Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    "Homework" from Chris :) https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-reserve-barbell

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:27 Breaking news — DOJ drops Powell probe, Chris reacts
2:03 Chris's assessment of Powell — "Mediocre"
2:18 "The burning tire of home price affordability"
3:58 "He could be attacking Warsh by Thanksgiving"
5:49 Does Warsh come in as a hawk?
9:45 Main episode begins
10:15 Middle East/Iran update
12:56 Stagflation is the base case
15:00 Truflation viewer question
16:50 Spirit Airlines bailout
20:32 Kevin Warsh hearing circus
23:29 VantageScore — "election year press release"
27:15 D. Ricardo's letter on private credit
29:00 NVIDIA — "I would not be a buyer"
30:54 The generational experience gap
31:49 "You think we may get a crisis this year?"
32:45 Share repurchases — "funded with debt"
34:06 Gold homework — Reserve Barbell
37:07 The passive bid
38:00 Viewer Q — community banks
40:11 Viewer Q — Did Chris lock in his mortgage?
42:11 FOMC next week
42:30 "Distressed real estate is the next trade"