#296 David Woo on the Macro Trade Everyone's Missing: What the US-China Trade War Is Really About
Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 296 to discuss the trade war, AI, and markets. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Woo warns that the US economy is heading toward stagflation as tariff impacts finally materialize, with holiday shopping expected to be weak due to consumers having front-loaded purchases in anticipation of price increases. He argues the US is now in a weaker position versus China in the tech war, as China has survived Trump's tariffs through factory automation and AI integration while US manufacturing continues shedding jobs even in protected sectors. Woo is short NASDAQ heading into November 1st, when China's rare earth export restrictions take effect, believing the market has mispriced both the AI bubble (with companies like OpenAI spending unsustainably while hitting technology plateaus) and the intensifying US-China showdown over AI supremacy—calling this "the macro trade of our generation."Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome David Woo back to the show0:54 Big picture macro view and difficult 20253:08 Why tariffs haven't impacted economy yet6:09 Consumer spending as preemptive buying9:16 Holiday shopping weakness ahead10:05 Gen Z consumer struggles12:05 Stagflation thesis explained14:28 Manufacturing job losses in protected sectors16:43 Who's benefiting from tariffs?18:05 US-China trade war positioning21:52 China's factory automation advantage23:54 US vs China AI strategies26:44 The race for AI dominance29:31 The macro trade of our generation32:01 Jensen Huang: China "nanosecond behind"34:22 September 29th export sanctions expansion35:51 November 1st deadline explained36:27 What would you tell Trump administration?38:37 Shorting NASDAQ and AI bubble thesis40:01 OpenAI's revenue vs spending problem43:44 Technology plateau concerns46:09 AI bubble meets US-China tensions47:06 Risk management for short positions49:15 Key catalysts: November 1st & earnings guidance52:31 What keeps David up at night53:13 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine concern55:03 Final thoughts and where to find David
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#295 Lawrence Lepard: Get Ready for The Big Print as the Debasement Trade Goes Mainstream
Lawrence Lepard explains how the "monetary debasement trade" has gone mainstream as gold hit $4,200 and silver broke to $52. He presents a chart showing Bitcoin lags gold by months before moving harder, predicting Bitcoin will hit $250K as signs point to the "imminent big print" with Powell's May 2026 term ending. Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard Website: https://ema2.com/ The Big Print book: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Print-Happened-America-Sound/dp/B0DVTCWYNN0:00 Welcome back Lawrence Lepard1:09 Monetary debasement trade going mainstream2:07 Gold broke from $3,400 to $4,200, silver new all-time high at $523:58 Fed5:08 Fed balance sheet signs pointing to imminent big print7:38 Bitcoin has lag to gold - gold smells it first, Bitcoin moves harder9:38 US stock market $66T vs gold/silver miners $800B market cap11:04 Silver move signals real bull market - heading to $60-$10013:22 Big beautiful bill spending away tariff and DOGE savings15:14 Chart: Bitcoin lags gold but moves harder when it catches up18:09 Gold/Bitcoin both sound money - shouldn't fight each other20:16 Everything bubble - been dead wrong shorting stocks22:38 This decade like 1970s on steroids with stagflation24:51 Possible currency reset or hyperinflation tail case27:03 Base case: stagflationary 1970s on steroids28:42 12 Fed members set price of money for 330 million Americans31:13 Real Housewives of Wall Street - wife borrowed $200M non-recourse34:17 HBS confronting Geithner - victory lap for corrupt 2008 bailouts36:07 Changed shorting rules during crisis - got wiped out41:22 Daniel Webster: inflation fertilizes rich man's field with poor man's sweat42:50 WWI Liberty bonds first modern big print doubled prices46:01 Next 10 years vision: Blue team 2028, hyperinflation by 203247:54 Michael Saylor for president 2032 - modern Thomas Jefferson48:28 Why Bitcoin not gold? Better, digital age, hard to move gold50:37 Bitcoin inequality concern - rich will spend it, plumbers get paid in it52:59 Sound money means no more wars - governments can't afford them54:12 Fix debt? It's in worthless dollars - we're out of debt56:52 Decentralization saving us now
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#294 Tommy Thornton: "I Definitely Think We're at a Blow-Off Top" — Market Extremes and What's Next
Thomas Thornton, founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss extreme market conditions with investors "all in, levered, and complacent." He argues we're at a blow-off top characterized by record call buying, leverage through ETFs, and a gambling mentality fueled by 0DTE options and sports betting culture. Thornton highlights dangerous market mechanics: the Goldman Sachs most shorted basket is up 38% year-to-date, meaning short sellers have been squeezed out and won't provide natural buying support during corrections. He notes extreme concentration risk with 10 stocks comprising 40% of the S&P 500, and Nvidia alone responsible for 18% of market gains. Technical indicators show exhaustion signals while the market continues higher on narrowing breadth. Thornton identifies AI trade risks including slowing CapEx growth, insufficient power infrastructure, and water constraints for data centers. He rebuts bull arguments by comparing current conditions unfavorably to 2000, noting $38 trillion in debt versus $4 trillion then. He explains why the Fed can't save markets this time due to Treasury market dysfunction. Currently positioned net short with disciplined risk management, Thornton predicts people will look back on 2025 and say "the signs were so obvious." He advises investors to lower exposures and leverage, warning that opportunities will come when his indicators reach oversold levels and nobody wants to buy.This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/https://www.x.com/tommythornton Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:02 - "People are all in, levered, and complacent" - Market positioning3:43 - Gambling mentality and comparison to past market cycles5:20 - How leverage and zero DTE options change market dynamics7:39 - "Market correction or something worse" - What's ahead7:52 - "I definitely think we're at a blow off top"9:20 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket and dangerous market mechanics11:51 - Passive ETFs and leverage risk12:46 - Market sentiment analysis with charts14:13 - CNN Fear & Greed Index critique15:30 - DeMark indicators flashing exhaustion signals18:22 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket technical breakdown19:01 - Concentration risk: 10 stocks = 40% of S&P 50021:28 - Call buying extremes and put/call ratios23:23 - AI trade risks and CapEx spending concerns25:42 - Energy and water constraints for AI data centers30:28 - Market narrowing despite new highs32:40 - Bull case rebuttal: Why this is different from 200034:48 - Why the Fed can't save the market this time36:22 - Net short positioning and risk management strategy39:44 - "The signs were so obvious" - How we'll remember 202541:35 - Long idea: Golar natural gas infrastructure play44:28 - Hedge Fund Telemetry overview and parting advice
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#293 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Quietly Reclassified $300B In Loans With No Comment - Is This Systemic?
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the Fed minutes. In this episode, DiMartino Booth highlights how the Fed quietly reclassified nearly $300 billion in loans on a Friday afternoon with no comment, shifting them from stodgy commercial categories into the "black box" of non-depository financial institution (NDFI) lending now totaling $1.7 trillion. She draws parallels to Enron as First Brands bankruptcy exposes what appeared to be an auto supplier was actually a financial using off-balance sheet vehicles, with subprime delinquency rates likely double reported figures. Elsewhere, Booth warns youth unemployment hit 1988 levels but from lack of demand not supply as companies blindly adopt AI without hiring, leaving the Class of 2025 worse off than 2024. She argues gold has become a "meme stock" with Wall Street firms' price targets signaling contrarian risk, while the government shutdown leaves the Fed "flying blind" without official data for their October 29th meeting.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Hawkish Fed minutes - knife in Miran's back1:44 Fed insider on Miran controversy2:48 Did Fed want September cut?5:08 Shutdown means Fed flying blind October6:04 Gold and NASDAQ flying - unusual7:03 Gold as meme stock - contrarian warning9:50 NDFI loans - $1.7 trillion black box12:21 $250B loan reclassification bombshell13:14 Fed reclassified quietly on Friday14:17 First brands like Enron revelation16:21 Off balance sheet financing returns18:25 Subprime delinquencies likely double20:15 Is this systemic? Fed doesn't know21:28 Fed won't move without official data22:22 Challenger data horror at Fed24:52 Charts need gray recession bars25:12 Fed put born October 198727:32 Youth unemployment demand crisis30:02 AI adoption without hiring32:24 Parents worry kids made redundant33:20 First five years determine career35:48 Not sending kids to college37:11 Put faces on repo statistics38:47 Markets masking K economy39:01 Lowercase i economy concept
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#292 Chris Whalen: Gold Over $5,000 Next Year, Americans Still Uncomfortable Admitting Dollar Weakness, And Why Fed Will Monetize Debt Through Financial Repression
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2026 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point4:17 Monetary Metals ad read5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out19:54 Taking profits22:36 Watching the herd mentality25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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