The Julia La Roche Show

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaWoo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links:  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump 02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 202605:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 202616:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 202517:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 202619:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran42:04 TACO or FAFO? 44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 192905:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession14:55  Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor38:19 Strong dollar implications39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 200848:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" for his 2026 outlook.In this episode, Whalen warns of a market correction comparable to 2008, driven by carnage in private equity where hundreds of companies cannot be sold and sponsors are selling companies to themselves. After a decade-and-a-half Fed liquidity party, he predicts corporate credit will worsen in 2026, setting the stage for a housing market decline in 2027-28. Whalen reveals fraud has become epidemic in housing thanks to AI-altered bank statements, discusses the global power shift as Shanghai now sets gold prices (not Chicago or London), and explains why Powell will likely stay on the Fed board through 2028 to protect the institution - betraying Trump just like every Fed chair before him.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira794Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen01:25 2025 retrospective3:35 Big stories of 2026 05:30 Midterms 08:21 Maxi market correction coming alongside 2008 in textbooks15:09 Will Powell retire or remain on the board?16:45 Will we see a more hawkish Fed in 2026?17:50 Default rates21:25 What happens with housing in 202622:42 Drawing parallels to the Gilded Age26:29 Gold and silver - another good year ahead32:41 Viewer question: Annaly mortgage REIT common vs preferred36:48 What's on the radar next week: Big investment banks piece38:18 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Peter Grandich delivers his most bearish outlook in a 40+ year career, predicting 2026-2027 could be the most challenging years in 50 years due to mounting debt ($38T heading to $50T), political division worse than any time since the Civil War, and a deteriorating middle class hanging by its fingernails. He explains why this was his best five-year period after moving entirely into gold and precious metals in 2021, with price targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver still ahead. He warns we're in the earliest stages of becoming a banana republic as BRICS launches a gold-backed trading unit and de-dollarization accelerates.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Grandich01:17 Macro view - not a lot of positive things to say09:47 Best year in five years - gold and precious metals trade13:52 Oil prediction: $50 before $15015:12 Deteriorating middle class hanging by fingernails21:41 Most concerned he's ever been in 40+ year career23:01 Trump's trade war mistakes 28:21 De-dollarization and dollars coming back to US30:18 Solutions: Return to moral compass and faith35:48 Wealth preservation vs appreciation for investors41:31 Passive investing 45:12 The 12 factors of why party like 1929 will bite back47:58 Biblical wisdom on debt and finances49:19 Parting thoughts

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 321. Carol delivers a sobering assessment of America's broken fiscal foundation with debt-to-GDP over 120%, explaining why the K-shaped economy is creating a non-merit-based divide driven by policy and the administrative class wealth transfer. She discusses the wealth paradox - despite abundance, Americans are more stressed than ever due to housing, education, and healthcare costs - and predicts inflation will be the release valve for our debt crisis. Roth shares her bullish thesis on gold and precious metals as central banks shift away from US Treasuries, explains why the Fed's tools are now irrelevant in this fiscal dominance era, and reveals her predictions for 2026 including decoupling from European allies, Fed chaos, and wild out-of-the-box policies. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:  You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ Follow Carol Roth on X: https://x.com/caroljsrothTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth00:57 Big picture macro view: Broken fiscal foundation04:07 K-shaped economy debate and wealth paradox11:46 Administrative class wealth transfer problem18:33 Is Trump going to fix the broken fiscal foundation?24:37 Do rate cuts help everyday Americans?30:51 Gold as hedge and insurance policy37:50 "You Will Own Nothing" - what's changed since 202345:33 Predictions for 202648:58 Wrap up and where to find Carol