The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, predicts that over the next 18 months, markets will see both new highs and new lows amid heightened volatility. Ted currently holds 50% of his portfolio in short-term Treasuries (recently extending some to 3-year), waiting for opportunities as he notes that second years of presidential terms historically return just 1% and typically experience mid-year declines. He argues that financial repression—holding rates low while letting inflation run—is the only way out of America's $40 trillion debt crisis, which is why he's positioned in hard assets including gold, silver, miners, energy, and commodities. Ted recently trimmed silver positions after a 200% move in 2025, expecting consolidation back to $50-60 (from $76), and warns that hidden leverage is at record levels: margin debt as a percentage of market cap is at all-time highs, high-net-worth investors have massive off-balance-sheet securities-based lines of credit, and leveraged ETFs have exploded fourfold. He's critical of private equity for overpaying for companies and using secondary funds as a "gimmick," and predicts this will be a year for active stock pickers as the regime shifts from passive buying to passive selling when baby boomers (averaging age 71 this year) begin withdrawing funds.

Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Ted Oakley
1:14 Big picture macro view — dislocation since mid-October
2:59 Year 2 of presidential terms historically poor performers
4:05 Why second years are difficult
5:23 How to prepare for drawdowns
6:51 Why Ted holds 50% in short-term Treasuries
8:21 Can't own long bonds for the next 10 years
9:17 Are we past the point of no return on debt?
11:04 What $1 trillion really means — $100k/hour for 1,100 years
12:03 What's the end game?
13:02 Financial repression — the only way out 13:34 Regime change to hard assets
14:19 Gold and silver — took some profits
16:25 Trading in and out vs. staying long
18:21 Price levels for getting back into silver and gold
19:32 Regime change for hard, durable assets
21:06 Are we due for a major pullback or bear market?
23:09 Hidden risks — margin debt at record levels
25:12 High net worth debt hidden off balance sheet
27:08 Private credit and private equity — trouble brewing
29:40 Would the Fed intervene in a generational bear market?
31:09 The thesis on oil
33:22 Kevin Warsh as Fed chair — Ted's reaction
34:24 The Fed doesn't really matter for stock picking
34:52 Where are you finding opportunities today?
36:58 At what level would you deploy the 50% cash?
38:25 Takeaway for investors this year
39:54 Active stock pickers will outperform
41:05 Prediction for a year from now
42:22 Where to find Ted and closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro
01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November
1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger?
4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you?
6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety
7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?
8:30 The link between crypto and AI
11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives
11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US?
13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech
14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth?
17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing
19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues?
21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open
23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet?
24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle
26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income
28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar
31:58 Viewer mail
34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility
35:00 Closing

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.

Links:
https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/
https://x.com/WarrenPies

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies
1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime
3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down
5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance
12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument
16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued
17:26 Markets at record highs
18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface
22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs
30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals
30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted
37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed
45:22 10-year
49:53 The economy
53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.

Links:    
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome
1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in
2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips
4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid)
5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term
7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem
8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying
9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?
11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed
13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year
14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity
15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator?
17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20%
19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained
21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people"
22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like?
24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning
25:00 Preserving capital over speculation
26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave  
28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place
29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth
31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted
32:20 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight.

Links:
George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/
X: https://x.com/gnoble79

Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble
1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture
3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy
5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low
6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price
7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated
7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe
8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue
9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets
11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing
13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible
14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing
16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead
16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices
18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere
20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough
22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play
24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months
25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking
26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance
28:48 The death of speculation
29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again?
30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989
32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform
33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck
34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating
35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor
37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities
39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes
40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software
43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings
45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word
46:11 What should the average investor do?
48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds
49:19 March 11th conference
53:00 Closing