Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "T...
#226 Ted Oakley: Almost Everybody is Complacent Right Now
Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration's economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing.
With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.
He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.
00:00 Introduction and welcome
01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates
04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration
06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt
09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals
11:12 Government's economic impact; recession risks
15:54 Oakley's past performance in turbulent markets
19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics
22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing
25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks
28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation
31:47 Fed's interest rate dilemma
34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem
37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts
39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks
42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth
46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth
49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity
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52:13
#226 Rick Rule: Rick Rule: "I Am Cautious" - Holding Cash For The Coming Squeeze
Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show to explain why he remains surprised by economic resilience despite mounting challenges, breaks down why gold could reach $9,000-$10,000 as governments inflate away debt obligations, and shares specific sectors he sees as undervalued including oil & gas, community banks, and wholesale insurance. Rule also provides a sobering analysis of America's $130+ trillion in total obligations, explains why the government will likely choose gradual inflation over outright default, and offers advice for younger generations on navigating what he expects to be a challenging decade ahead.
Register for the Rick Rule Symposium 2025.
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to Rick Rule
01:01 Economic resilience despite challenges
02:52 Winners and losers in current economy
03:16 Warning signs: Fed losing control of long yields
04:33 Value opportunities in out-of-favor stocks
05:26 Gold price outlook and analysis
07:34 Real inflation vs CPI discussion
08:33 Foreign government gold buying
10:59 Price targets and Warren Buffett's wisdom
12:06 1970s inflation comparison
14:01 Impact of high inflation environments
17:13 Entitlement obligations analysis
19:37 Social Security reform discussion
23:00 10-year reckoning outlook
24:59 Department of Government Efficiency critique
28:15 Solutions to government spending
30:23 Monetary reset scenarios
35:04 Investment opportunities discussion
39:07 Canadian political outlook
44:46 Portfolio positioning and cash levels
47:48 Closing thoughts and upcoming events
Links:
Rick Rule Symposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=julia
Rule Investment Media: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
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52:22
#225 Marc Faber: "They Will Print Money Like There Is No Tomorrow" - Debt Spiral Risk, The Trump Top, Why Asset Inflation Is Ending | The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report
Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, joins the Julia La Roche Show to break down why he believes asset inflation is coming to an end while consumer price inflation accelerates. He explains why 70% of households are struggling despite government statistics showing growth, critiques Federal Reserve policies that favor Wall Street over Main Street, and shares his framework for portfolio allocation across real estate, stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Faber also provides a tour of his rare book and communist memorabilia collection in his office while sharing thoughts on capitalism, society, and his newest motorcycle.
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to Marc Faber
00:57 Macro overview and government statistics
02:52 Fed policy favoring the wealthy
04:41 Political shifts in Europe and Argentina
06:09 Market outlook and policy implications
08:57 US indices topping out analysis
11:12 Value opportunities in Asian markets
13:37 Gold price history and precious metals
14:35 Bond market size discussion
16:37 Monetary inflation distortions
19:56 Debt spiral and hyperinflation risks
21:21 Insurance and property discussion
23:02 Government role in economy
26:00 Trust and capitalism discussion
28:01 Trump administration outlook
32:00 Real economy recession analysis
34:35 Asset vs consumer price inflation
40:04 Bureau of Labor Statistics critique
42:49 End of asset inflation thesis
44:35 Cost of living increases examples
47:24 Portfolio allocation framework
49:55 Communist memorabilia collection
54:21 Closing thoughts
Links:
The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com
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57:39
#224 George Goncalves: The 2025 'Balancing Act' — Different Starting Points From Trump 1.0, Take Medicine Early or Keep Spending & What Could Break Markets
George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.
Links:
https://x.com/bondstrategist
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves
01:17 Background and macro framework
03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"
05:35 Market complacency and valuations
07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain
09:43 Business vs. government-led growth
11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0
13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending
16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy
17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation
21:43 Credit market implications
23:26 Soft landing analysis
28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks
29:41 Deficit and debt analysis
33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis
34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025
39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil
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39:59
#223 Chris Whalen: If Trump Doesn't Attack The Fiscal Issue Head On, He Could Be Lame Duck | 2025 Outlook
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership."
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen
01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending
02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending
04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy
06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation
08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025
10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook
11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion
13:21 Recession probability assessment
15:25 GSE release implications
19:45 Best approach to GSE reform
21:47 Federal deficit challenges
23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze
25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy
27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury
28:36 Market outlook for 2025
30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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