The Julia La Roche Show

• #316 Melody Wright, Who Drove 10,000 Miles Across America Observing Housing Conditions, Warns Why We Could See a 38% Correction In Home Prices

  Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss her outlook for housing and why we could see a price correction of 38%. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 - Introduction: Melody Wright joins the show 00:44 - Housing market frozen for three years - lowest sales since 19952:12 - Institutions are net selling and preparing for what's coming 3:16 - The middle class squeezed out of housing market 4:11 - Debunking the "structural housing shortage" myth 6:12 - Regional housing story: What Zillow data reveals 8:03 - Who's running for the exits first: Institutions vs Mom & Pop 9:17 - Home prices going negative for first time in 2+ years 10:20 - 38% correction coming - when housing becomes affordable again11:56 - Why Fed rate cuts won't help housing 14:04 - The China parallel: Over-building and empty inventory 16:48 - Demographics: The silver tsunami and vacant homes 18:15 - Timeline: When foreclosures will materially increase 21:04 - FHA program shutdown and masking delinquencies 23:48 - Why this crisis is worse than 2008 for millennials 24:50 - What Melody changed her mind on about housing 26:04 - The #1 thing people are getting wrong about housing 27:48 - National Association of REALTORS responds to Melody 28:52 - What keeps Melody up at night 30:00 - What a healthy housing market looks like 31:45 - Final advice: Say no to debt slavery and wait

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• #315 Danielle DiMartino Booth Calls Out Fed Powell's Lies In Open Letter To The FOMC - 'Somebody Needed to Say Bullshit, And I Said Bullshit'

  Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC and discuss her open letter manifesto to the committee written on behalf of every hard-working American. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:    Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle 00:33 Reaction to FOMC 01:36 QE? 02:40 Markets are overreacting 02:59 Danielle's open letter to The Federal Open Market Committee06:57 Kevin Hassett 08:45 How to preserve Fed independence 09:20 Every Hardworking American Who Wakes Up in the Morning Asking Themselves What Went Wrong10:42 The Fed's conflicting mandates 12:25 The unprecedented level of dissent 15:04 Powell was passionately against QE back in 201217:21 The Fed could exert its independence 18:50 Markets think it's QE, but is it? 20:09 Powell 21:29 Fed policy is eviscerating the middle class 25:10 Labor market dynamics 30:12 Biggest fear - civil war without honest monetary policy 32:45 Call to action

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• #314 Chris Whalen: The Case For Kevin Hassett For Fed Chair, No Crisis On Horizon & Why Rate Cuts Are Coming

  Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

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• #313 Hugh Hendry On Preparing For The Dawn Of Chaos

  Hugh Hendry, "The Acid Capitalist," returns to the Julia La Roche Show. Hendry breaks down his "macro compass" portfolio framework: 25% equities (overweight Japanese stocks after their 35-year breakout), 25% US treasuries (buying TLT after a 50% decline), 25% alternatives (Bitcoin over gold due to market cap), and 25% strategic cash. His thesis: the treasury market is so large (100% of GDP) that it's prevented inflation despite massive deficit spending, but AI will cause 20% unemployment within 2-3 years. That unemployment will force governments into redistribution mode, finally breaking the system's ability to contain inflation. He discusses why tech valuations are near peak, why the yen carry trade matters, and why sterling may be the first major currency to collapse as the UK's service economy gets hit hardest by AI displacement.Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Substack: https://hughhendry.substack.com/Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial00:00 - Intro00:52 - The macro compass: 4 quadrant portfolio framework03:52 - Quadrant 1: Equities & why Hugh loves Japanese stocks06:10 - Pattern recognition: Buying 35-year breakouts08:32 - Quadrant 2: US treasuries (TLT) after 50% collapse10:35 - The AI singularity & 20% unemployment prediction12:48 - Cheap labor is over: The end of the China era15:07 - Why corporations will shed jobs (but won't admit it yet)18:37 - Quadrant 3: Gold vs Bitcoin - market cap analysis22:03 - Why Hugh prefers Bitcoin over gold25:46 - The currency quadrant: Which currencies to hold28:15 - Why the dollar may weaken despite being "king"32:28 - Hugh's trade of the year: Yen carry unwind38:42 - The reflexivity problem: AI makes everything cheaper43:15 - Why we didn't get hyperinflation despite massive printing48:29 - The treasury market as a "fire gap" stopping inflation53:14 - Tech valuations: Are we in a bubble?58:36 - Why Hugh thinks we're near peak valuations1:02:44 - Why the treasury market stopped inflation (100% of GDP)1:04:31 - The chaos trigger: 20% unemployment will break everything1:05:00 - Youth unemployment & the rise of socialist politics1:06:23 - NYC mayor & the "no billionaires" movement1:07:06 - The UK disaster: Disability spending & currency collapse1:09:34 - Sterling as first currency casualty of AI

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• #312 Dr. Mark Thornton: America's On-Ramp to Hyperinflation and Why It's Still Early in the Bull Market for Gold & Silver

  Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Austrian economist who correctly called the housing bubble, warns that we're living in an everything bubble with a flock of black swans ready to ignite a crisis. From commercial real estate cover-ups to private equity opacity, data center spending without defined returns, and trillions in government debt, Dr. Thornton explains how Fed manipulation and artificial interest rates have created malinvestments across the economy—and why Trump's push for lower rates will only fuel more bubble activity. He breaks down Austrian Business Cycle Theory, why we're on the on-ramp to hyperinflation with 2026 looking turbulent, and makes the case for gold and silver as essential hedges against fiat money depreciation in a world of central bank money printing and currency debasement.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Mark Thornton 01:09 Concerns about the macro economy 6:35 Fed manipulation creating vast array of potential swans 12:00 What if inflation ticks up? Long-term government debt and currency depreciation fears 14:50 Living through an everything bubble 18:40 Fed outlook22:30 Austrian Business Cycle Theory explained 28:30 Malinvestment and artificial credit expansion 34:50 Who really benefits from the Fed's policies? 44:50 Inflation to pay off the national debt 46:00 Gold and silver as hedges against fiat money depreciation 52:40 Early on in the precious metals bull market, silver going above $50 is 'the end of the beginning' 1:00:03 Path to hyperinflation 1:07:01 Bitcoin and Austrian School of Economics compatibility 1:10:31 Final thoughts and closing

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