Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

• Startup investing in Tokyo, with Coral Capital’s James Riney

  Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by James Riney, partner at Coral Capital, to explore Japan's transformation from a $700 million startup ecosystem to today's $5-10 billion market. They discuss the cultural and structural factors that initially limited venture activity in Japan. The conversation covers unique aspects of building startups in Japan, from the quirks of being a foreign professional to why Japanese engineers love Twitter but ignore LinkedIn, plus insights into Japan's "time machine advantage" and why American-developed dev tools are going viral in Tokyo.–Read full transcript here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/startup-investing-in-tokyo/–[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes! You can access them directly on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]–Sponsor:  SafebaseLeading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast–Links: Coral Capital: https://coralcap.co/–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:57) The early days of Japanese startups(04:08) The rise of Coin Check(05:54) Challenges and opportunities in the Japanese startup ecosystem(16:09) Cultural and structural differences in hiring(19:47) Sponsor: Safebase(21:22) The role of content and communication in Japanese startups(31:29) LinkedIn vs. Facebook in Japanese work culture(32:38) LinkedIn's social capital issues in Japan(33:58) Cultural differences in asking for permission(34:31) Navigating Japanese regulatory clarity(36:49) The evolution of VC investment in Japan(39:54) The rise of SaaS in Japan(45:26) System integrators and software development in Japan(50:39) Challenges in Japanese tech companies(54:36) Opportunities for foreign companies in Japan(55:03) The importance of commitment in the Japanese market(57:08) Dev tools and viral adoption in Japan(59:31) Japan's influence on global tech(01:03:23) Wrap

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• How AI reshapes the craft of software engineering, with Yoav Tzfati

  Patrick McKenzie is joined by AI researcher Yoav Tzfati to discuss “vibe coding” - using LLMs to delegate software engineering work to AI models. Yoav runs a bootcamp teaching programming novices to build full-stack web applications using AI, without them ever looking at code. Patrick and Yoav discuss the fundamental shift in software engineering, where humans increasingly act as product managers directing AI "junior engineers," and explore the implications for the future of programming careers and the democratization of software development.–Read full transcript here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-ai-reshapes-software-engineering/–[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one!You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]–Links:Follow Yoav Tzfati: https://x.com/yoavtzfati Yoav's bootcamp: https://www.code-bloom.app/–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:32) Defining vibe coding(01:35) The evolution of software engineering with LLMs(04:07) Practical applications of vibe coding(09:37) Teaching vibe coding to novices(18:30) Future of AI in software development(21:42) Discussing timelines and model capabilities(22:12) Flappy Bird and the evolution of game development(23:27) The impact of LLMs on software engineering(24:46) Future of coding and human roles(29:47) Monitoring and error handling in software(31:20) The role of LLMs in code review and maintenance(35:12) Wireframing and project management with LLMs(36:40) The future of software engineering careers(43:07) Practical tips for software engineers(44:38) Wrap

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• Stacking the odds: Cate Hall on agency and outlier success

  Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Cate Hall, CEO of Astera Institute and author of a forthcoming book on agency, to explore how individuals can systematically develop higher agency in their lives. They discuss the selection effects that draw agentic people to fields like poker and startups, the importance of being comfortable with ignorance and feedback, and practical strategies like asking "Is there a better way to do this?" ten times daily. Cate shares insights from her journey from Supreme Court lawyer to world champion poker player, including how peer groups, emergencies, and what addicts call "the gift of desperation" can trigger step-changes in personal agency.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/stacking-the-odds-cate-hall/–[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]–Links:Cate Hall’s Writing: https://usefulfictions.substack.com/Pre-order Cate's book on agency: https://mailchi.mp/44578760e686/book-preorder-signupAstera: https://astera.org/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:28) Exploring the concept of agency(00:56) Selection effects in different fields(01:31) The tech industry evolution(02:54) Y Combinator's changing demographics(04:23) Parallels between poker and startups(15:48) The role of networking and relationships(19:12) Embracing feedback and continuous improvement(23:49) Exploring growth mindset(24:35) AI and personal improvement(27:04) Learning with AI: strategies and cautions(27:53) The value of human interaction(30:19) Professional gamblers and their unique insights(35:05) Understanding agency and its development(38:45) Triggers for increased agency(45:23) Wrap

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• Think like a trader, with Ricki Heicklen

  Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss the evolution of her trading education business, Arbor, one year after their first conversation. They dive deep into the pedagogy of trading, exploring how simulated markets teach concepts like adverse selection, team dynamics, and risk management through hands-on experience. Ricki shares war stories from the bootcamp trenches—infinite loop bugs that mirror Knight Capital's disaster, WiFi outages that create unexpected trading opportunities, and that the most successful trading teams often focus on internal team communication even more than trade execution or technical acumen.See the full transcript: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/think-like-a-trader-ricki-heicklen/–[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]–Links:Trading Camp : https://trading.camp/Metagame: https://www.metagame.games/#tickets Story of Knight Capital: https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/admin/2013/34-70694.pdf–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:46) Ricki's journey from trading to teaching(01:25) The birth of Arbor and first bootcamps(03:32) Developing a trader's mindset(05:53) Understanding heuristics in trading(08:21) Adverse selection in everyday life(15:40) Insights from teaching trading bootcamps(21:07) Pedagogical approach: learning by doing(32:00) Handling mistakes and learning opportunities(36:17) Unplanned bugs and real-world lessons(39:47) Learning from Knight Capital's bug(40:24) Understanding exchange-side bugs(43:10) Risk limits and strategy separation(44:41) Importance of UI in trading bots(46:53) The Madagascar button(48:20) The big red button in manufacturing(49:45) Simulated trading and information aggregation(50:29) Sibling trading game explained(53:24) Modeling and hidden information(01:01:15) Trading behavior and market updates(01:04:38) Real-world applications and lessons(01:13:58) Surprises and market opportunities(01:16:24) Pedagogical approaches in trading education(01:17:08) Market dynamics and counterparty behavior(01:17:53) Retail vs. institutional order flow(01:19:23) Simplifying trading concepts for beginners(01:21:27) Introducing market characters and their roles(01:31:31) Team dynamics and communication in trading(01:39:13) The importance of redundancy in trading systems(01:47:52) Future of trading education and online classes(01:53:47) Wrap

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• Achieving results in the physical world, with Adam Jarvis of “Public Service”

  Patrick McKenzie is joined by Adam Jarvis, author of the Public Service substack and a New Zealand civil engineer and public sector veteran. They discuss how political capital constraints, funding misalignment across government levels, and accumulated regulatory "scar tissue" make infrastructure projects extraordinarily difficult. The conversation reveals why replacing a water pipe now costs more in planning than the entire project did a decade ago, and how talent sorting has drained capacity from public institutions. Despite these challenges, Patrick and Adam find reasons for optimism about reforming government capacity.Complex Systems now has video episodes as well. Watch this episode and subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast–Full transcript: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/achieving-results-in-the-physical-world-with-adam-jarvis-of-public-service/–Links:Public Service Substack: https://alethios.substack.com/ –Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction to Complex Systems (01:13) Understanding local government functions (03:41) Challenges in public sector project delivery (06:31) Funding complexities in public projects (09:14) The burden of regulatory and legislative constraints(17:04) Appreciating the infrastructure we take for granted (23:02) Historical and modern infrastructure challenges (30:04) Talent mobility and its impact on public sector (33:35) Public sector hiring practices (34:11) Agglomeration effects and brain drain (36:04) Aging population and resource allocation (36:59) Structural factors in public sector layoffs (37:49) Hiring and firing in the public sector (40:39) Labor mobility and job security (46:34) AI and automation in public sector jobs (52:56) Risk aversion and process overload (01:01:30) Optimism for public sector reform 

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