RiskReversal Pod

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research and Investment Strategy at Carlyle, to discuss why equities often react far less to geopolitical risk than to financial shocks, and how a “security premium” is emerging as policymakers prioritize reliable energy supplies, potentially boosting demand via stockpiling. Thomas explains how markets adapted to tariffs after an initial shock, but argues wars are harder to “end” because multiple parties must agree. They explore a richly valued dollar, limited alternatives driving central banks and investors toward gold, and why supply-chain invoicing reinforces dollar dominance. Thomas expects S&P 500 concentration—largely tied to data centers and the Mag 7—to drive diversification toward equal-weight, small/value, and “old economy” industries amid shifting energy-transition timelines and rising defense needs. They also examine AI’s capex-revenue gap, hyperscaler valuation challenges from heavy infrastructure spending, and argue systemic-risk fears around private credit are overstated versus other leverage risks.

Show Notes

Bubbles as a Feature Not a Bug (Carlyle)

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss ongoing market volatility and rotation, noting persistent software underperformance versus semiconductor strength, with a brief IGV rebound from late-February lows that has faded as investors return to AI and semis when risk feels “all clear.” They highlight IGV’s concentration in Microsoft, Palantir, Salesforce, and Oracle, and focus on Microsoft’s lack of a meaningful bounce and key technical levels. The conversation also examines Palantir as a valuation-sensitive “story stock” amid narratives around war-driven demand and government contracts. They preview Oracle’s earnings against concerns about AI infrastructure commitments, remaining purchase obligations, margins, and negative cash flow, alongside questions about OpenAI funding and potential diversification of tenants. They close by warning that repeated shallow selloffs may be reinforcing dip-buying and speculative “bubble” behavior despite Mag 7 cooling.

Article Mentioned

Oracle and OpenAI End Plans to Expand Flagship Data Center (Bloomberg)

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a messy macro picture after the latest nonfarm payrolls miss: a softening labor market, sticky inflation, and an equity tape that still looks oddly calm on the surface. ​They dig into rising credit stress in banks and private credit, what the VIX and bond market are really signaling, and how oil shocks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East complicate the Fed’s next move. After the break, Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly from The Wall Street Skinny join to unpack the Warner-Paramount mega-deal, “synergies” as code for layoffs, AI’s slow-motion impact on white-collar jobs, and why today’s conditions have uncomfortable echoes of 2008.

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Guy Adami and Dan Nathan welcome Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge, to discuss market psychology versus history, arguing that positioning, sentiment, and flows show continued retail buying and complacency even as institutions reduced equity exposure around “Liberation Day.” Dawson highlights warning signs including weak financials, discretionary lagging staples, and a “risk swap” from AI-disrupted software into high-valuation defensives and cyclicals. The group explores volatility selling, geopolitical risks that matter mainly through oil’s impact on earnings, and how to monitor credit—especially high yield spreads—while noting private credit and BDCs have heavier software exposure than public high yield. They debate IPO demand for mega private AI firms, bond yields’ lack of trend, the dollar’s role in non-U.S. equities, China’s partial decoupling, gold’s parabolic technicals, and how jobs, growth, inflation, and future EPS estimates shape 2026–2027 market outcomes.

Show Notes

The Future Freaks Me Out or Everything is Alright? (NewEdge)

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Dan Nathan interviews veteran tech investor Dan Benton about how tech investing has changed since Benton’s 1991 “20 rules” at Goldman Sachs and why he’s releasing new “2026 rules,” alongside launching a Substack. Benton contrasts a pre-internet, sell-side, information-advantage era with today’s commoditized data, retail tools, and faster markets, arguing investors now differentiate by identifying secular themes and sticking with them. He emphasizes tech as “the market,” the need to respect the Fed, and that momentum in tech is driven by multi-year estimate trajectories, revenue acceleration, and operating leverage, with valuation often secondary until growth decelerates. They discuss stock-based compensation distorting earnings quality, rotations within AI beneficiaries, crowding and risk-off selloffs, and uncertainties around hyperscaler CapEx and OpenAI’s private-market marks. The conversation covers SaaS disruption risk, Tesla and SpaceX “selling the future,” China’s advantages, and why markets are faster but not smarter.

Links

Rules For Tech Investing (Google Drive)

Follow Dan's SubStack: substack.com/@danbenton

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