RiskReversal Pod

Dan Nathan interviews Michael Nathanson, co-founder of MoffettNathanson, on the RiskReversal Podcast about his 28-year analyst career and pivot from linear media to digital advertising and Big Tech. Nathanson explains why Google and Meta became a hedge against cord-cutting-driven declines in cable networks, noting their strong growth, performance-ad monetization advantages, and durable distribution. He reflects on mistakes (notably underestimating Netflix) and lessons about backing secular winners while monitoring capital formation and competitive narrative shifts. The discussion focuses on AI’s impact: Nathanson defends Alphabet’s willingness to innovate, infrastructure advantages, first-party data, and TPU strategy, while questioning Meta’s heavy AI and metaverse spending without a clear long-term plan or returns framework. He also describes MoffettNathanson’s industry-first, supply-demand research process and independence from investment banking conflicts.

After the break, Dan hosts Adam Singolda, CEO and founder of Taboola, on the Risk Reversal Podcast to discuss Taboola’s role in the open web advertising market outside Google and Meta. Singolda explains Taboola’s performance ad platform serves thousands of advertisers and pays partners about $1.5B annually, helping publishers, apps, and OEMs monetize and drive engagement. They discuss publisher pressure from LLM-driven “Google Zero” traffic declines, and Taboola’s “Deeper Dive” answer engine that sits on publisher pages to enable conversational engagement; Taboola data shows users who ask questions generate 3+ times more revenue and 2–3 times more engagement than traditional ads. Singolda also announces a Claude skill that lets users launch and optimize Taboola campaigns agent-to-agent based on performance goals, argues OpenAI will struggle to build an ad business while Google’s Gemini will likely succeed, and outlines how companies must adopt AI aggressively to accelerate growth and profitability.

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Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss a narrow, under-the-hood stock market rally driven largely by AI beneficiaries—especially semiconductors and data-center hardware—while hyperscalers lag as they turn asset-heavy and free cash flow falls. They note extreme momentum in semis (record RSI/long winning streak) and debate catalysts for a reversal, including hyperscaler CapEx guidance, potential demand destruction from higher component costs, and front-loaded ordering tied to war-driven supply fears. The conversation broadens to geopolitics: war-related commodity impacts, Strait of Hormuz risks, and U.S.-China leverage via rare-earth magnets critical to defense production, with expectations Trump’s China trip may be pragmatic. They touch on defense stocks’ vulnerability to drones, Fed-chair transition expectations toward Warsh, early earnings takeaways (banks steady, homebuilders fragile), and focus on upcoming hyperscaler results for ads and CapEx.

Show Notes

Checkout The Boock Report: peterboockvar.substack.com/

FactSet's Earnings Insight: factset.com/insight/subscribe

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Dan Nathan interviews Wedbush's Dan Ives on “Okay, Computer.” about Tim Cook unexpectedly stepping down as Apple CEO (remaining chairman) ahead of WWDC, Apple’s still-unclear AI strategy, and why Apple’s installed base could make it a key “toll collector” for consumer AI via edge computing, services, and an AI-enabled App/agent ecosystem that may drive higher hardware memory needs and subscriptions. They discuss whether Apple’s valuation can rerate if it proves AI success and argue the new CEO should be more acquisitive in AI/software/robotics. Ives says fears that Anthropic/OpenAI will “unseat” major SaaS incumbents are a false narrative, expecting AI monetization to improve as features bundle into core products and pricing models evolve. They preview earnings setups for Microsoft, Google, and Meta, and share Asia channel-check takeaways: strong AI hardware demand, a memory supercycle, and potential geopolitical supply-chain risks.

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss an unusually persistent market rally, with a “sea of green” pushing the S&P 500 to new highs as crude oil reverses lower on signs the Strait of Hormuz remains open during a ceasefire. They debate whether investors are conditioned to buy dips even if Middle East tensions flare again, noting VIX levels and an overbought setup heading into the heart of earnings. They flag Netflix down 10% despite solid free cash flow, attributing the drop to guidance and Reed Hastings leaving the board, and call out Intel’s near-parabolic move ahead of a pivotal print. They also examine software’s potential inflection (including SAP), strong bank CEO tone on the consumer, energy-stock pullbacks as buying opportunities, homebuilders surging on lower yields, and key upcoming guests and shows.

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson back to the Risk Reversal Podcast to discuss his career at the firm and his current market outlook. Wilson argues markets have largely priced in bad news and likely put in the year’s lows near the 6,500 range, citing capitulation signals, positioning, and sentiment, though geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict remains. He sees earnings strength and broadening beyond the “Mag Seven,” with opportunities in small caps, consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, while noting AI-driven hyperscalers became cheaper and can still work. Key risks include bond volatility and a loss of control of long-end rates amid heavy refinancing needs and a Fed leadership transition. They also cover AI CapEx returns, energy constraints, U.S.-China competition, private credit’s limited systemic threat, consumer affordability issues, and Wilson’s 7,800 S&P 500 target within 9 to 12 months.

Show Notes

Earnings Insight (FactSet)

China’s surging chip tool imports from south-east Asia (FT)

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