The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

In today's episode, Dave draws on 45 years and over 100 countries to argue why scarcity still matters in a world obsessed with infinite money and AI. He makes the case that the world trades at a discount while America sits at record valuations.

To close, Dave explains why undervalued commodities eventually catch up with inflation.

(0:00) Starts

(5:13) Dave Iben on investing in scarce assets

(9:24) Accessing farmland and global agricultural assets through public markets

(11:34) Finding value in emerging markets, with a focus on South Korea

(18:18) Portfolio management, valuation risk in S&P 500 and AI stocks

(24:36) Historical parallels, underweighting the index, and finding stock ideas in unique countries

(28:33) Investing in China, India, nuclear power, and other overlooked Asian markets

(31:27) Brazil, Argentina, scarcity, local sentiment, and the role of AI and human judgment

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Sponsor:

⁠Upwork⁠⁠⁠ is the world's largest human and AI-powered freelance marketplace to hire top talent—trusted by businesses and professionals worldwide.

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Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Today’s guest is Roger Ibbotson, a finance professor at Yale for four decades and founder of Ibbotson Associates.

In today’s episode, Roger shares a century of stock and bond data and how one dollar became fifteen thousand in large caps over a hundred years. He explains why most people never capture those returns, and why total returns went unmeasured for decades. To close, Roger makes the case for young investors owning nothing but stocks and forecasts the next twenty five years.

(0:00) Introduction of Roger Ibbotson

(1:34) Overview of "Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns"

(5:15) The challenges of market timing

(10:19) Market cycles, risk, and the role of human capital for young investors

(12:30) Historical bond yields, probability of ruin, and small caps vs. long bonds

(19:13) Investor preferences and historical market forecasts

(23:41) Nominal vs. real returns, inflation, and bond yields

(29:17) Valuation metrics, market anomalies, and long-term outlook

(33:15) Buybacks vs. dividends and private company valuations

(37:12) IPO trends

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Sponsors:⁠ ⁠⁠⁠

⁠Farmland LP⁠⁠ is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector.

⁠Upwork⁠⁠⁠ is the world's largest human and AI-powered freelance marketplace to hire top talent—trusted by businesses and professionals worldwide.

-----

Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Today’s guest is Robin Wigglesworth, editor of FT Alphaville at the Financial Times and the author of A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World.

In today’s episode, Robin makes the case that bonds, not stocks, are the bedrock of finance and quietly built the modern world. He explores the hidden plumbing beneath it, from the $12 trillion repo market to the leverage lurking in Treasuries, and why fixed income ETFs are rewiring how bonds trade.

(0:00) Starts

(2:39) Robin Wigglesworth on the strength of bonds

(3:57) Political influence and origins of the bond market

(8:09) Evolution, creditworthiness, and historical impacts of bonds

(16:34) Memorable defaults, financial crises, and scams

(20:04) Bond market innovations and securitization

(23:52) Sovereign debt concerns

(28:03) Stories, misconceptions, and recent bond market events

(38:43) Innovations, future trends, and misunderstandings in income investments

(43:33) The rise of private credit and liquidity risks

-----

Sponsors: ⁠⁠

Upwork⁠⁠ is the world's largest human and AI-powered freelance marketplace to hire top talent—trusted by businesses and professionals worldwide.

-----

Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Today’s guest is Inigo Fraser Jenkins, Chief Investment Strategist at AllianceBernstein.

In today’s episode, Inigo argues that the golden era of easy diversification and high real returns is ending. He defends US equity exceptionalism while declining to defend the dollar.

To close, he makes the case for gold and explains why bonds may no longer diversify equities.

(0:00) Starts

(0:54) Is US exceptionalism dead?

(10:27) US vs. foreign profit margins

(15:12) Diversifying beyond 60/40

(21:05) Gold is money and the role it plays in portfolios

(33:08) Higher expected future inflation

(35:26) The bull case for healthcare

(39:24) Inflation volatility and commodity demand

(42:38) AI's impact on the labor market

-----

Sponsors: ⁠⁠

Farmland LP⁠ is one of the largest investment funds in the US focused on converting chemical-based conventional farmland to organic, sustainably-managed farmland using a value-add commercial real estate strategy in the agriculture sector.

Upwork⁠⁠ is the world's largest human and AI-powered freelance marketplace to hire top talent—trusted by businesses and professionals worldwide.

-----

Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Today’s guest is Paul Kedrosky, a fellow at the MIT Institute for the Digital Economy, partner at SK Ventures and former sell-side analyst.

In today’s episode, Paul Kedrosky explains why AI sits at the intersection of every force behind the biggest bubbles. He walks through why tokens are the fastest-deflating commodity ever, why more than half the data center buildout runs on debt instead of cash flow, and why an IPO wave pressures the market’s biggest winners.

To close, Paul argues AI already drives most US GDP growth, and revisits how badly humans misjudge scale.

(0:00) Introduction

(1:19) AI solving its own problems and historical economic crises

(3:14) The impact of AI on energy and emissions

(7:25) AI’s economic implications

(10:45) Financing and economic impact of data centers

(18:42) Deflationary effects of AI tokens and tech company debt

(22:26) Tech companies as utilities and the IPO surge

(28:01) High PE ratios and valuation risks

(34:04) AI model convergence and diminishing returns

(40:22) Global attitudes toward AI and technology adoption

-----

Sponsor: ⁠⁠Upwork⁠⁠ is the world's largest human and AI-powered freelance marketplace to hire top talent—trusted by businesses and professionals worldwide.

-----

Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com

-----

Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).