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Markets expect the Federal Reserve to deliver its first rate hike in more than three years, testing the relationship between Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and President Donald Trump. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged growing caverns over the U.S. deficit as bond yields remain elevated. And energy prices continue to cloud the inflation outlook.

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Today's recommended read: Real or not, Trump's helicopter money drop should alarm by Mike Dolan

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Pressure is mounting on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as he testifies before Congress with 10-year yields topping 5%. The Federal Reserve begins a pivotal two-day meeting with markets expecting another rate hike. And President Trump says no new guardrails are needed for AI, even as calls grow to slow development of advanced models.

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Today's recommended read: AI is too big to slow in a geopolitical race by Mike Dolan

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The chiefs of OpenAI and Anthropic call for a slowdown in AI development amid warnings of existential risk, with OpenAI delaying its IPO until at least next year - raising questions about what a pause would mean for the chip and data center boom. Oil surges back above $108 a barrel after a Houthi attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline and regional talks over the Strait of hormuz collapse. And markets price a 90% chance the Fed raises rates Wednesday.

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Today's recommended read: Oil markets survived the Iran war sprint. Now comes a marathon, Ron Bousso

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Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is closing non 5%, a level many investors see as a potential threat to stocks. Markets are also waiting for a crucial CPI report that could determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates next week. And Oracle's results ease concerns that AI spending isn't paying off.

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Today's recommended read: Can Africa seize its moment in the race for critical minerals? by Andy Home

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Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo.

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer.

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U.S. President Donald Trump says the Iran war won't end before the midterms and is proposing $5,000 checks for every American, raising fresh questions for inflation and bond markets. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again as energy prices climb. And an AI researcher who resigned from Anthropic says the company and its rivals are acting irresponsibly and that the technology could pose a threat to humanity.

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Today's recommended read: Is the dollar policy 'mini Mar-a-Lagos' or Whac-A-Mole?⁠, Mike Dolan

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Listen to the latest episode of Reuters Econ World on ⁠⁠⁠right-wing populism⁠⁠⁠.

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard and Abisoye Osundairo.

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer.

Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices.

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